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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Tennessee game
- asteroid
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4 years 2 months ago #24577
by asteroid
Question:
How do you lose when you have 81 points and your opponent has only
59 points?
Answer:
By doing something stupid that results in two players being suspended
for 14 games collectively. It obviously didn't cause that specific
game to be lost, but it could very well mean the loss of a game later
in the season.
Many analysts believe Kansas is a better team when it plays small,
so the Jayhawks should be able to survive with just two bigs rotating
in and out of games. Of course, for these next two games, Kansas will
have just one big. Although Doke's conditioning is significantly
better than for previous seasons, he's still unlikely to be able to
go a full 40 minutes, so we may very well be seeing sporadic five
guard lineups these next two games. Lucky for Kansas that the
Tennessee game has zero implications for the conference race, and the
game after that is against a team that is winless in conference games
so far (while admittedly having given Baylor a scare). So, perhaps
we can simply say "this too will pass".
Tennessee's last two games have both been above expectation by enough
to win today's game (at least according to the Sagarin Predictor margin),
but they've been the only two such games for the Vols all season. And
again, Kansas has played only one game below expectation by enough to
lose, that one game coming, unfortunately, against a contender. That's just
three cases out of a combined 36 games, corresponding to an 8 percent
chance of Kansas losing.
Tennessee's trend and mental toughness ratings are not statistically
significant, and although the negative mental toughness rating for
Kansas has some significance to it, it actually helps by about 2
points for this game because of the relative weakness of the Vols'
team.
Tennessee plays low-scoring games, averaging just 65 points of
offense per game while holding opponents to an average of 60 points
per game, comparable to the best Big 12 teams, so if you like a lot
of scoring, you're likely to be disappointed by this game. Pomeroy
has Tennessee with the #19 ranked defense, but it's going up against
the #9 offense. Meanwhile, the Vols' #139 ranked offense has to
contend with the #1 defense. Expect Tennessee to have trouble
scoring.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats Tenn KU Defensive Stats Tenn KU
Points/Game 66.5 75.7 Opp Points/Game 59.0 60.4
Avg Score Margin +7.5 +15.3 Opp Effective FG % 42.9 43.7
Assists/Game 15.1 15.0 Off Rebounds/Gm 8.2 9.5
Total Rebounds/Gm 36.7 39.4 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.8 27.1
Effective FG % 48.5 54.9 Blocks/Game 5.8 4.8
Off Rebound % 26.9 31.6 Steals/Game 6.0 8.1
FTA/FGA 0.344 0.354 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.6 14.7
Turnover % 18.0 16.9
Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents, so how about a little game of transitivity
instead? Tennessee beat Washington by 13, Washington beat Baylor by 3,
Baylor beat Kansas by 12. That makes Tennessee 28 points better than
Kansas, right? Wrong. But a fun conversation piece.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Lamonte Turner (guard)
most points Jordan Bowden (guard)
most rebounds Josiah-Jordan James (guard)
most assists Lamonte Turner (guard)
most steals Lamonte Turner (guard)
most blocks Yves Pons (guard)
most turnovers Santiago Vescovi (guard)
most fouls John Fulkerson (forward) / Santiago Vescovi (guard)
One gets the feeling that Tennessee plays small ball. The leading rebounder
and leading shot blocker are both guards. The only forward on the list above
is one who fouls a lot.
Guard Lamonte Turner had shoulder surgery and is expected to miss the rest of
the season.
15-3 12-6
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Tennessee
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +13.58 68 54 86 # 1 # 1 # 49 # 50
Sagarin Predictor +12.29 67 55 86.7 # 2 # 1 # 39 # 50
Sagarin Golden Mean +12.67 67 54 # 2 # 1 # 43 # 50
Sagarin Recent Games +15.17 68 53 # 3 # 1 # 66 # 50
Sagarin Eigenvector +17.47 70 52 91
Massey +18.00 70 52 93 # 1 # 1 # 60 # 65
Pomeroy +14.17 66 52 # 1 # 1 # 50 # 66
Greenfield +13.50 70 56.5 # 2 # 1 # 51 # 47
Dunkel +15.50 72 57 # 4 # 65
Vegas (via Dunkel) +13.50 69.5 56
Dolphin Predictive +11.79 68 56 86.5 # 1 # 1 # 48 # 49
Real Time +20.00 80 60 85.4 # 1 # 1 # 52 # 53
Seven Overtimes +10.00 70 60 81 # 1 # 3 # 58 # 33
DPPI +21.20 74.5 53 # 2 # 1 # 47 # 54
ESPN BPI +14.40 90.7 # 2 # 3 # 44 # 74
Colley Matrix +20.69 # 1 # 1 # 65 # 51
NCAA NET # 3 # 59
LRMC # 3 # 1 # 61 # 61
common opponents
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +15.2 70.0 55.0
scatter 3.3 3.6 2.7
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record remains at 25-6, despite
the fact that there are no projected losses. Toughest game would be the road game
with West Virginia, followed closely by the road game with Baylor.
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 1 Duke 66 68 -2.15 +0.15
HOME # 74 NC Greensboro 74 62 +16.87 -4.87
HOME #210 Monmouth-NJ 112 57 +27.99 +27.01
HOME # 64 East Tennessee State(ETS 75 63 +15.38 -3.38
Div2 Chaminade 93 63
NEUT # 33 BYU 71 56 +8.57 +6.43
NEUT # 16 Dayton 90 84 +6.45 -0.45
HOME # 30 Colorado 72 58 +11.53 +2.47
HOME #242 Milwaukee 95 68 +29.24 -2.24
NEUT #235 Kansas City(UMKC) 98 57 +25.78 +15.22
AWAY # 22 Villanova 55 56 +4.23 -5.23
AWAY # 61 Stanford 72 56 +8.58 +7.42
HOME # 5 West Virginia 60 53 +7.60 -0.60
AWAY # 49 Iowa State 79 53 +7.54 +18.46
HOME # 9 Baylor 55 67 +8.07 -20.07
AWAY # 48 Oklahoma 66 52 +7.35 +6.65
AWAY # 62 Texas 66 57 +8.71 +0.29
HOME # 77 Kansas State 81 60 +17.00 +4.00
HOME # 39 Tennessee +12.30 0.867
AWAY # 59 Oklahoma State +8.43 0.726
HOME # 24 Texas Tech +10.90 0.831
HOME # 62 Texas +15.13 0.909
AWAY # 58 TCU +8.30 0.779
AWAY # 5 West Virginia +1.18 0.542
HOME # 48 Oklahoma +13.77 0.917
HOME # 49 Iowa State +13.96 0.897
AWAY # 9 Baylor +1.65 0.570
HOME # 59 Oklahoma State +14.85 0.854
AWAY # 77 Kansas State +10.58 0.847
HOME # 58 TCU +14.72 0.914
AWAY # 24 Texas Tech +4.48 0.653
Here is Tennessee's season to-date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #263 NC Asheville 78 63 +21.28 -6.28
HOME #121 Murray State 82 63 +12.04 +6.96
NEUT # 52 Washington 75 62 +1.85 +11.15
HOME #342 Alabama State 76 41 +28.43 +6.57
HOME #160 Chattanooga 58 46 +14.89 -2.89
NEUT # 11 Florida State 57 60 -3.45 +0.45
NEUT # 50 VCU(Va. Commonwealth) 72 69 +1.79 +1.21
HOME #326 Florida A&M 72 43 +26.44 +2.56
HOME # 32 Memphis 41 57 +2.58 -18.58
AWAY # 46 Cincinnati 66 78 -2.17 -9.83
HOME #227 Jacksonville State 75 53 +19.64 +2.36
HOME # 28 Wisconsin 48 68 +2.11 -22.11
HOME # 25 LSU 64 78 +1.99 -15.99
AWAY # 71 Missouri 69 59 +1.30 +8.70
HOME # 86 South Carolina 56 55 +8.36 -7.36
AWAY # 66 Georgia 63 80 +0.47 -17.47
AWAY #139 Vanderbilt 66 45 +7.01 +13.99
HOME #101 Mississippi 73 48 +10.27 +14.73
AWAY # 2 Kansas -12.30 0.133
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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4 years 2 months ago #24579
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Thanks, asteroid!
Re: your Tennessee small ball note
UT has not had the bigs. The tallest players in their top 7 are starter Fulkerson (6-9/197, JR) and 7th man Nkamhoua (6-8, 224 FR).
But there is FR Uros Plavic (7-0/240 FR)
As I posted earlier today , reading through articles this morning in preview of today's game I found that Vol freshman giant Uros Plasvic (Serbia) was just recently granted eligibility from the NCAA. For his debut the 7-foot freshman center played 11 minutes and scored four points in Tennessee's 73-48 rout of Ole Miss last Tuesday.
He could be really problematic for KU, especially if they bring him in when Dok is out.
Re: your Tennessee small ball note
UT has not had the bigs. The tallest players in their top 7 are starter Fulkerson (6-9/197, JR) and 7th man Nkamhoua (6-8, 224 FR).
But there is FR Uros Plavic (7-0/240 FR)
As I posted earlier today , reading through articles this morning in preview of today's game I found that Vol freshman giant Uros Plasvic (Serbia) was just recently granted eligibility from the NCAA. For his debut the 7-foot freshman center played 11 minutes and scored four points in Tennessee's 73-48 rout of Ole Miss last Tuesday.
He could be really problematic for KU, especially if they bring him in when Dok is out.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.