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predictions for Tennessee game

  • asteroid
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4 years 2 months ago #24577 by asteroid
Question:

How do you lose when you have 81 points and your opponent has only
59 points?  

Answer:

By doing something stupid that results in two players being suspended
for 14 games collectively.  It obviously didn't cause that specific
game to be lost, but it could very well mean the loss of a game later
in the season.

Many analysts believe Kansas is a better team when it plays small,
so the Jayhawks should be able to survive with just two bigs rotating
in and out of games.  Of course, for these next two games, Kansas will
have just one big.  Although Doke's conditioning is significantly
better than for previous seasons, he's still unlikely to be able to
go a full 40 minutes, so we may very well be seeing sporadic five
guard lineups these next two games.  Lucky for Kansas that the
Tennessee game has zero implications for the conference race, and the
game after that is against a team that is winless in conference games
so far (while admittedly having given Baylor a scare).  So, perhaps
we can simply say "this too will pass".

Tennessee's last two games have both been above expectation by enough
to win today's game (at least according to the Sagarin Predictor margin),
but they've been the only two such games for the Vols all season.  And
again, Kansas has played only one game below expectation by enough to
lose, that one game coming, unfortunately, against a contender.  That's just
three cases out of a combined 36 games, corresponding to an 8 percent
chance of Kansas losing.

Tennessee's trend and mental toughness ratings are not statistically
significant, and although the negative mental toughness rating for
Kansas has some significance to it, it actually helps by about 2
points for this game because of the relative weakness of the Vols'
team.

Tennessee plays low-scoring games, averaging just 65 points of
offense per game while holding opponents to an average of 60 points
per game, comparable to the best Big 12 teams, so if you like a lot
of scoring, you're likely to be disappointed by this game.  Pomeroy
has Tennessee with the #19 ranked defense, but it's going up against
the #9 offense.  Meanwhile, the Vols' #139 ranked offense has to
contend with the #1 defense.  Expect Tennessee to have trouble
scoring.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Tenn    KU       Defensive Stats     Tenn    KU
Points/Game         66.5    75.7     Opp Points/Game     59.0    60.4
Avg Score Margin    +7.5   +15.3     Opp Effective FG %  42.9    43.7
Assists/Game        15.1    15.0     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.2     9.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.7    39.4     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.8    27.1
Effective FG %      48.5    54.9     Blocks/Game          5.8     4.8
Off Rebound %       26.9    31.6     Steals/Game          6.0     8.1
FTA/FGA            0.344   0.354     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.6    14.7
Turnover %          18.0    16.9

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents, so how about a little game of transitivity
instead?  Tennessee beat Washington by 13, Washington beat Baylor by 3,
Baylor beat Kansas by 12.  That makes Tennessee 28 points better than
Kansas, right?  Wrong.  But a fun conversation piece.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Lamonte Turner (guard)
most points        Jordan Bowden (guard)
most rebounds      Josiah-Jordan James (guard)
most assists       Lamonte Turner (guard)
most steals        Lamonte Turner (guard)
most blocks        Yves Pons (guard)
most turnovers     Santiago Vescovi (guard)
most fouls         John Fulkerson (forward) / Santiago Vescovi (guard)

One gets the feeling that Tennessee plays small ball.  The leading rebounder
and leading shot blocker are both guards.  The only forward on the list above
is one who fouls a lot.

Guard Lamonte Turner had shoulder surgery and is expected to miss the rest of
the season.

                                                          15-3          12-6
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Tennessee
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +13.58   68   54       86       #  1   #  1    # 49   # 50 
Sagarin Predictor      +12.29   67   55       86.7     #  2   #  1    # 39   # 50 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +12.67   67   54                #  2   #  1    # 43   # 50 
Sagarin Recent Games   +15.17   68   53                #  3   #  1    # 66   # 50 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +17.47   70   52       91  
Massey                 +18.00   70   52       93       #  1   #  1    # 60   # 65
Pomeroy                +14.17   66   52                #  1   #  1    # 50   # 66
Greenfield             +13.50   70   56.5              #  2   #  1    # 51   # 47
Dunkel                 +15.50   72   57                #  4           # 65                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +13.50   69.5 56                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +11.79   68   56       86.5     #  1   #  1    # 48   # 49
Real Time              +20.00   80   60       85.4     #  1   #  1    # 52   # 53 
Seven Overtimes        +10.00   70   60       81       #  1   #  3    # 58   # 33
DPPI                   +21.20   74.5 53                #  2   #  1    # 47   # 54
ESPN BPI               +14.40                 90.7     #  2   #  3    # 44   # 74
Colley Matrix          +20.69                          #  1   #  1    # 65   # 51
NCAA NET                                               #  3           # 59
LRMC                                                   #  3   #  1    # 61   # 61
common opponents                                                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +15.2    70.0 55.0
scatter                  3.3     3.6  2.7

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record remains at 25-6, despite
the fact that there are no projected losses.  Toughest game would be the road game
with West Virginia, followed closely by the road game with Baylor.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -2.15    +0.15
HOME   # 74 NC Greensboro               74  62   +16.87    -4.87
HOME   #210 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +27.99   +27.01
HOME   # 64 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +15.38    -3.38
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 33 BYU                         71  56    +8.57    +6.43
NEUT   # 16 Dayton                      90  84    +6.45    -0.45
HOME   # 30 Colorado                    72  58   +11.53    +2.47
HOME   #242 Milwaukee                   95  68   +29.24    -2.24
NEUT   #235 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +25.78   +15.22
AWAY   # 22 Villanova                   55  56    +4.23    -5.23
AWAY   # 61 Stanford                    72  56    +8.58    +7.42
HOME   #  5 West Virginia               60  53    +7.60    -0.60
AWAY   # 49 Iowa State                  79  53    +7.54   +18.46
HOME   #  9 Baylor                      55  67    +8.07   -20.07
AWAY   # 48 Oklahoma                    66  52    +7.35    +6.65
AWAY   # 62 Texas                       66  57    +8.71    +0.29
HOME   # 77 Kansas State                81  60   +17.00    +4.00
HOME   # 39 Tennessee                            +12.30             0.867
AWAY   # 59 Oklahoma State                        +8.43             0.726
HOME   # 24 Texas Tech                           +10.90             0.831
HOME   # 62 Texas                                +15.13             0.909
AWAY   # 58 TCU                                   +8.30             0.779
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia                         +1.18             0.542
HOME   # 48 Oklahoma                             +13.77             0.917
HOME   # 49 Iowa State                           +13.96             0.897
AWAY   #  9 Baylor                                +1.65             0.570
HOME   # 59 Oklahoma State                       +14.85             0.854
AWAY   # 77 Kansas State                         +10.58             0.847
HOME   # 58 TCU                                  +14.72             0.914
AWAY   # 24 Texas Tech                            +4.48             0.653

Here is Tennessee's season to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #263 NC Asheville                78  63   +21.28    -6.28
HOME   #121 Murray State                82  63   +12.04    +6.96
NEUT   # 52 Washington                  75  62    +1.85   +11.15
HOME   #342 Alabama State               76  41   +28.43    +6.57
HOME   #160 Chattanooga                 58  46   +14.89    -2.89
NEUT   # 11 Florida State               57  60    -3.45    +0.45
NEUT   # 50 VCU(Va. Commonwealth)       72  69    +1.79    +1.21
HOME   #326 Florida A&M                 72  43   +26.44    +2.56
HOME   # 32 Memphis                     41  57    +2.58   -18.58
AWAY   # 46 Cincinnati                  66  78    -2.17    -9.83
HOME   #227 Jacksonville State          75  53   +19.64    +2.36
HOME   # 28 Wisconsin                   48  68    +2.11   -22.11
HOME   # 25 LSU                         64  78    +1.99   -15.99
AWAY   # 71 Missouri                    69  59    +1.30    +8.70
HOME   # 86 South Carolina              56  55    +8.36    -7.36
AWAY   # 66 Georgia                     63  80    +0.47   -17.47
AWAY   #139 Vanderbilt                  66  45    +7.01   +13.99
HOME   #101 Mississippi                 73  48   +10.27   +14.73
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -12.30             0.133
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1

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  • HawkErrant
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4 years 2 months ago #24579 by HawkErrant
Thanks, asteroid!

Re: your Tennessee small ball note

UT has not had the bigs. The tallest players in their top 7 are starter Fulkerson (6-9/197, JR) and 7th man Nkamhoua (6-8, 224 FR).

But there is FR Uros Plavic (7-0/240 FR)

As I posted earlier today , reading through articles this morning in preview of today's game I found that Vol freshman giant Uros Plasvic (Serbia) was just recently granted eligibility from the NCAA. For his debut the 7-foot freshman center played 11 minutes and scored four points in Tennessee's 73-48 rout of Ole Miss last Tuesday.

He could be really problematic for KU, especially if they bring him in when Dok is out.

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"

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