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Updated Big 12 Projection - After Iowa St. loss to Baylor

  • CorpusJayhawk
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5 years 2 months ago #21376 by CorpusJayhawk
Iowa St. lost a home game to Baylor. A home loss is precisely the kind of thing that kills hope for a Big 12 title. Iowa St. is not exactly eliminated but practically speaking it will take something just short of a miracle. They had a 24% probability of winning the Big 12 going into that game. It dropped to 5.3%. So Texas Tech could be in the same boat if KU wins this weekend. If KU beats Texas Tech in Lubbock, this becomes practically speaking, a 2 team race. Texas Tech was the Big beneficiary of the Iowa St. loos because Texas Tech still has to play Iowa St. and the probability of winning that game went up a bit with Iowa St.'s drop in ranking. KU is still a longer shot in third but we can see what an upset does for the probability. We have 2 HUUUUUUUUUUUGE games over the next 6 days.










Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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5 years 2 months ago #21378 by NotOstertag
Graphs and numbers aside, it's essentially a 3 horse race now. Everyone is even in "games played" finally, and we control our destiny. If we win, we win. If we don't, we don't. That's pretty much it.

Glad that we have a week to prep for Tech and glad that it looks like Garrett will be back. Of course Tech has a week to prep too.

Last time we beat them pretty handily, but that was with Vick who actually had a decent game. Lightfoot only payed 7 minutes and McCormack played 6. Moore played 15 and had 6 assists, 2 points, and 2 turnovers. Dedric had 25 points and 10 rebounds. Dotson had 20 points. Assuming that we lose Vick's 13 points, that needs to be recovered by Grimes/KJ/Mitch/Garrett. Of course Tech will be prepped and it'll be as hostile as anyplace we'll play all year.

Stating the obvious: the team that wins on Saturday still has a shot of getting at least a piece of the title. The losing team will need SIGNIFICANT help.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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5 years 2 months ago #21380 by JRhawk
While the head-to-head games between KU-TT, KU-KSU, & & TT-ISU are significant, I won't be surprised if one or more other games actually decides the title. Baylor seems to go whether PG Mason is in or out - loss to KSU - Mason out, win vs OU - Mason in, loss at TT - Mason out, win at ISU - Mason in. Didn't hurt that ISU shot 34.8% from 3 - instead of the ridiculous 58.3% they hit vs KSU. Clearly no dull moments from here thru Mar 9th.

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5 years 2 months ago #21382 by HawkErrant
Copied and updated from my previous post. - HE

REMAINING SCHEDULES for BIG XII LEADER and OTHER CONTENDING TEAMS
thru TUESDAY 2019-02-19

All Top 5 teams are color coded and underlined.

With KSU winning in Morgantown on Monday to stay ahead of the pack and ISU losing at home on Tuesday, the race has gotten that much more interesting, with Baylor now inching its way into the serious (even if extremely limited possibility) contention discussion. At this point KSU and ISU have caught up with the rest of the conference in terms of games played, and I've added the Baylor schedule to the lists below.

The only game this Saturday FEB 23 that does not feature a top 5 contender playing is Texas @ Oklahoma.

KANSAS STATE (10-3) 3 Home / 2 Road
FEB 23 (SAT) VS OKLAHOMA STATE
FEB 25 (MON) AT KANSAS
MAR 2 (SAT) VS BAYLOR
MAR 4 (MON) AT TCU
MAR 9 (SAT) VS OKLAHOMA

With every W things are looking better and better for the Wildcats, especially with just 2 road games left and just 2 games left against other title contenders. Their real concerns at this point are the road games at Kansas and TCU, whether or not struggling Baylor PG Makai Mason plays against them in Bramlage on MAR 2 (struggling or not, JR notes that BU has won with Mason in and lost with him out -- thanks, JR!) and the health of Dean Wade's feet. But they still have the lead and are in the driver's seat. Just win and the regular season title is all theirs.

KANSAS (9-4) 2 Home / 3 Road
FEB 23 (SAT) AT TEXAS TECH
FEB 25 (MON) VS KANSAS STATE
MAR 2 (SAT) AT OKLAHOMA STATE
MAR 5 (TUE) AT OKLAHOMA
MAR 9 (SAT) VS BAYLOR

KANSAS has held serve so far this year in AFH, and continuing to do so which would give KSU at least 1 more loss and a potential tie with either KU or TT (who seems sure to beat OSU in Lubbock on FEB 27). But first KU must exert its shaky road legs again, this time against that same Texas Tech team, a game KSU fans -- well, let's face it, *all* Big XII fans -- will be watching with great interest. The long break until Saturday's game means things are looking good for the return of KU defensive wizard Marcus Garrett to the lineup against TT (KUSports - Matt Tait: KU guard Marcus Garrett is back practicing, getting closer to a return) . But even if our guys win in Lubbock, next up is KSU, and then there is the always treacherous OSU road game and OU in Norman before ending the season hosting Baylor on Senior Night. If KU wins out, it is guaranteed at least a tie with KSU and whichever other contenders rise to the challenge. Like KSU, today KU controls its destiny, and from this point on winning out guarantees at least a share of the title for a 15th straight time.

TEXAS TECH (9-4) 3 Home / 2 Road
FEB 23 (SAT) VS KANSAS
FEB 27 (WED) VS OKLAHOMA STATE
MAR 2 (SAT) AT TCU
MAR 4 (MON) VS TEXAS
MAR 9 (SAT) AT IOWA STATE

I still think TT will probably lose 2 more games this year, but with just two road games left they and KSU -- and now Baylor -- have an advantage at this point on KU and ISU, who each have three road games to go. Both at TCU and ISU are winnable but questionable games, especially since winning out at this point is realistically ISU's only hope for a piece of the conference title (even though it may not be by then). But first Tech will have to beat visiting Kansas to stay in second and hopefully end up tied with KSU going into the MAR 2 weekend. If they win out they have a chance to at least tie KSU for the crown if someone else can defeat the Cats just one more time.

IOWA STATE (8-5) 2 Home / 3 Road
FEB 23 (SAT) AT TCU
FEB 25 (MON) VS OKLAHOMA
MAR 2 (SAT) AT TEXAS
MAR 6 (WED) AT WEST VIRGINIA
MAR 9 (SAT) VS TEXAS TECH

Tuesday's home loss to Baylor took a good bit of wind out of the ISU sails. Next up they travel to Fort Worth to play TCU. Usually facing a tough time on the road, this year they are 5-3 in true road games (4-2 in conference play), but their home performance (13-3, but 4-3 in conference) is crippling their chances in the conference race. If ISU loses just two more games the rest of the way, that would give them 7 losses this season and all but mathematically eliminate them from the conference title race. But if, and it's a big IF, they could win out -- and the only contender they have left to play is TT -- they could still have a shot at a piece of the ring if KSU loses twice and KU loses at least once more. Win their next four and their season finale hosting Texas Tech could make the difference between them sharing a piece of the title or not.

BAYLOR (8-5) 3 Home / 2 Road
FEB 23 VS WEST VIRGINIA
FEB 27 VS TEXAS
MAR 3 AT KANSAS STATE
MAR 6 VS OKLAHOMA STATE
MAR 9 (SAT) AT KANSAS

Baylor finds themselves hanging on to a hope for a share of the title with their huge road win over ISU. To repeat an oft used refrain, win out and they have a shot at a share of the title. They only have two games left against contenders, but their two road games are against KSU and KU. As Corpus noted, the odds are stacked against them.

ROCK CHALK!

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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5 years 2 months ago #21389 by NotOstertag
Minor flaw in your graph is that 3 teams are officially eliminated from the race now, and one is on the bubble.

WVU is 8 games back with 5 to go.
OSU is 7 games back, 5 to go.
OU is 6 games back, 5 go to.

TCU's dormie....5 back 5 to play.

Granted, I haven't calculated for ties but KSU already has 10 wins, and WVU, OSU and OU can't get to 10 no matter what.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot

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