Well, it wasn't the
prettiest game you ever saw, and the Jayhawks gave up the second most
points of the season, but the Jayhawks did run their record to 14-2
and 3-0 in the conference with a 97-82 win over scrappy Nebraska
Saturday night. Call this win an average day at the office.
This was a very physical game that the two teams played almost dead
even except for a decisive 17-2 Jayhawk run over the last four minutes
of the first half. That run proved to be the difference for the
Jayhawks. For most of the first half the game was a two-to-five
point affair, with the Jayhawks holding the lead most of the
way. After the Jayhawks' decisive run they led by 17 at the
half, 49-32. But in the second half the Jayhawks were unable to expand
upon that lead. They ran it as high as 22 points several times,
and Nebraska cut it down to as little at 15 several times, but
essentially the teams played evenly.
The Jayhawks would have crushed Nebraska if they would have been
able to find an answer to Kimani Ffriend inside. Ffriend
man-handled Chenowith and Collison inside, and both Jayhawk big men
fouled out trying to defend him. He is a load who posts up
strongly on the low blocks and simply moves the defender out of the
way on the way to the basket. Roy Williams gave the refs an ear
full on several occasions trying to convince them that Ffriend was
committing offensive fouls on his way to the hoop, but the refs never
saw it that way. Ffriend went to the line a whopping 19 times,
hitting 11, which says a lot about how this game went inside for the
Jayhawks.
Nebraska out-rebounded the Jayhawks 52-44 on the night and grabbed
19 offensive rebounds. That disparity was off-set by Nebraska's
turnovers. NU turned the ball over 23 times. The Jayhawks
committed only 10, a great mark. The Jayhawks forced 15 steals.
Nick Bradford had a career-high 10 assists against only 1 turnover.
Seven of those came in the first half. No other Jayhawk had more
than two assists. Luke Axtell led the Jayhawks with 15 points, his KU
career high, but I didn't think he played a particularly good
game. He's become a bit of a black hole. When he catches
it he shoots about 80% of the time, whether he has a shot or
not. He's been impatient with his shot rather than letting
the offense create shots for him.
Both Gooden and Collison
played good games on the offensive end. Collison scored 13
points on 6-of-7 shooting, but had only 2 rebounds. Gooden
scored 14 and could have had a lot more, but made only 4 of 10 free
throws. He had only 4 rebounds. Chenowith continued his
resurgence. He scored only 9 points, but grabbed 10 rebounds and
was the only interior player for KU who was rebounding effectively
against the Cornhuskers interior beef. Gregory scored 14 points
and was very effective, especially in the transition game.
The Jayhawks were pretty
lackadaisical the first 16 minutes of the first half. At the
4:00 mark the Jayhawks led by only two points, 32-30, and had played
uninspired basketball. NU had out-rebounded the Jayhawks pretty
convincingly and had given the Jayhawks fits by penetrating into the
interior of the defense off the dribble for easy scores. NU hit 46% of their shots in the first half. Despite the fact that NU had
turned the ball over frequently, the Jayhawks were unable to take
advantage.
KU had one small flurry in the first half that pushed the lead to
eight points mid-way through the period, but NU quickly pulled within
two points. The Jayhawks were miserable at the free throw line.
They hit only 4 of 12 at the stripe, and Gooden was 0-for-4. All
in all, after 16 minutes it was much too close for comfort for the
home fans and the Jayhawks did not look to have their "A"
game.
But the Jayhawks were brilliant the last four minutes of the half,
when they blew the game open. During that period they outscored
the Cornhuskers 17-2. Gregory started the run with a hanging
jumper at the free throw line. Heinrich then bounced a
three-pointer in off the rim, Bradford banked in a shot in from the
wing, Heinrich got a steal to Gregory for an easy two points, and the
Jayhawks were suddenly rolling. With 20 seconds to go in the
half, Coach Williams put in Axtell to set up a last second shot, and
the team ran it to perfection, getting Axtell wide open on the wing
with two seconds left. He drilled the three-pointer to give the
Jayhawks a 17-point, 49-32 lead.
Lester Earl saw his first
action since the Great Alaska Shootout. He was inserted with 90
seconds left in the first half, and promptly got a steal for the
Jayhawks that led to a Kenny Gregory bucket. He only played
seven minutes. Three of those came when the game was essentially over,
and there is no guarantee that he will play any more than that in any
future game, but it was good to see him back on the floor.
Ashante Johnson also got some extended minutes because of KU's foul
trouble and responded with 7 points in 10 minutes. As he
typically does, he looked impressive on offense.
Ignore the box score. Sure, it shows that KU shot only
6-of-23 behind the arc. But eight of those attempts--all
misses--came in the last two minutes after Williams inserted Crider
and Nooner. In that span, Crider missed three bombs, Nooner two
and Hinrich two. Without that flurry of misses the Jayhawks
would have hit a very respectable 6 of 15.
Mid-Season
Check up.
Prior
to the season I listed a number of “keys” to the season in my
season preview. I opined
that whether KU was simply a Top 25 team with an outside shot at the
Final Four or a solid top 10 team with a good shot at the Final Four
would depend on whether KU could fall on the positive side of the
ledger on most of the keys. Here’s
a look at how KU is performing in these key areas half-way through the
season. The short answer
is that overall KU is meeting most, but not all of them, and is
probably appropriately ranked at No. 8.
1. Can Jeff Boschee get his assist to turnover ratio up
around two-to-one? The Jayhawks will have a lot of
scoring weapons. Jeff needs to become more adept at getting the ball
into the hands of the open player.
Jeff has certainly accomplished this. Through 15 games (all
statistics in this discussion are through 15 games) he has 53 assists
against 26 turnovers. He
is just where he needs to be. Beyond
that, he has significantly improved his offensive productivity.
He is shooting 52.6% from the three-point line compared to 31%
last season and is hitting 50% from the field overall.
He appears unflappable on the court and in total control of
himself and the team. His
defense is quite a bit better, as well.
He looks much quicker and is much less prone to getting beaten
to the basket by the opposing point guard.
In short, Boschee has exceeded my expectations and has been a joy
to watch on the court.
2. Can Eric Chenowith improve his shooting percentage?
Eric has a good shot, but 45% from the field is about 10 percentage
points below what a first-rate college center should be shooting.
There is no way to get around the fact that Eric has had a very
disappointing year so far. Rather
than taking the next steps forward by improving his shooting
percentage and playing more strongly and more dominatingly inside, as
many expected he would, Chenowith has regressed.
Across the board his numbers have gone down.
He is averaging only 10.7 points compare to 13.5 last season.
He is grabbing only 7.6 rebounds a game, well below the 9.1
rebounds he averaged last season. The downward trend is evident on defense, as well.
Chenowith averaged 2.36 blocks per game last season compared to
1.73 per game this season. His
shooting percentage, which was well below par last season at 45% has
risen only to 47%. The
drop in Chenowith’s production is even more dramatic given how
strongly he finished the season last year.
In conference play his numbers were well above his season
averages.
Eric’s struggles have been well documented.
He was called lazy by the campus paper, has been taken to task
repeatedly on the chat boards and was benched for all but five minutes
in the second half against St. Louis.
Yet, in the last two weeks he has started to assert himself. Over the last three games heading into the Nebraska contest
he’s averaged 15.6 points and 8.6 boards, and that is just the type
of production the Jayhawks need from him in order to be a strong
contender for the Final Four. Gooden
and Collison are both very talented, but if KU is relying on a pair of
freshman in the paint to carry the heavy water in March, the
Jayhawks’ prospects won’t be good.
My diagnosis of what’s gone wrong for Chenowith this season may
not be any more valid than any other fan’s, but here’s what I see.
Eric’s primary problem is physical.
At 7-1 a player has to develop a great deal of leg strength to
maintain balance. In the
blocks on both offense and defense post players are continually using
their thighs and butts to establish and maintain position. When a player has strong legs, they can “push” on the
opposing player while maintaining balance—then can use their leg
muscles to establish position. A
player who lacks enough leg strength has to use their weight to
maintain position—they have to lean into the opponent.
When that happens the player is often off balance.
That makes it harder to quickly shift their weight toward the
ball or the basket when receiving a pass, going for a rebound or
attempting to take a turn-around shot.
Someone Eric’s size has a higher center of gravity than most
players he’s going against, which puts an even higher premium on leg
strength. It appears that
Chenowith simply doesn’t have the leg strength—or isn’t using
it--to dominate inside the way many expected he would.
As a result, when he gets the ball on the blocks on offense he
is often slightly off balance, making, it harder for him to take a
drop step to the basket or to get squared-up for a shot.
On defense it means that he isn’t as quick off the ground
going for rebounds.
The other problem seems to be a lack of confidence that has
developed because of his early season struggles.
The recent article in the Journal World suggests that at the
beginning of the season he was having back problems, which likely
contributed to a slow start. Because
of the very high expectations KU fans had for him (and which he likely
had for himself), he started to hear criticisms.
That may have led him to press all the harder, leading to a
situation where he is thinking too hard about playing well, rather
than simply relaxing and playing and reacting, which in turn leads to
poor play, perpetuating the lack of confidence and performance
anxiety. Something similar seemed to happen to Gregory last season.
The last three games it seems as if Eric has realized that nobody
had many expectations for him any longer, and he’s played in a much
more relaxed manner. If
he can keep playing the way he has through the rest of the conference
season, the Jayhawks prospects will increase significantly.
3) Can Gregory find a greater comfort level in the
half-court offense? Gregory has immense talent but sometimes
last season seemed out of synch in a slower paced game. If he can
learn to channel his talents into Williams' disciplined offense he
could have a breakout season and ignite the Jayhawks.
It seems he can, and that he has become a much more well rounded
player overall. Gregory
leads the team in scoring with a 14.3 average and leads the team in
shooting percentage at 62%.
He seems to have corrected many of the problems that limited
his effectiveness last season. Offensively,
he isn’t ramming himself into traffic in the lane the way he did
last season, which keeps him from turning the ball over as often. He
is hitting the mid-range jumper with greater frequency, which not only
makes him a more active participant in the half-court offense, but
also forces the defense to guard him more tightly, which opens things
up for everyone. Beyond
that, he seems much more confident and at peace than last season.
He has become very effective at picking his spots to drive to
the hoops and at converting once he gets into the lane.
Evidence of his increased maturity can be found in his assist
to turnover ratio, which this season is nearly 2-to-1 (33-17), a
significant improvement over last season when his assists and
turnovers were nearly identical.
Gregory is also playing much better on defense. Already this season he has 16 steals. Last season he had only 18 the entire year.
He seems to understand the team defensive concepts better and
is often drawing the opposing teams toughest offensive player.
Gregory still has room for improvement, though, and is not yet a
true go-to guy for the Jayhawks.
He still isn’t a threat from the three-point line, where he
has made only one of eight, which makes him easier to defend.
The opposition can back off of him when he is on the perimeter
to take away his drive without much worry that he is going to pop an
18-footer. His atrocious
free throw shooting also makes him easier to defend.
He is hitting only 36% for the year, allowing teams to hammer
him when he beats his defender to the basket.
The one caution sign is that his offensive productivity has
declined in the last eight games.
While he has led the team in scoring all season, his average
has fallen from 17.4 after the first seven games to 14.3 after 15
games because he has averaged only 11.6 points over the last eight
games. Last season
Gregory started strongly, only to see his average and his
effectiveness plummet as the conference season began.
While Gregory is vastly improved over last season, it appears
that some of the problems that plagued him last season are resurfacing
here and there. In a
slower more half-court game he has had difficulty at times finding
shots, and he seems to disappear from the offense, going long
stretches without doing much on offense beyond passing the ball.
Gregory still needs to consistently find ways to score when KU
isn’t playing a fast-breaking game.
4) Can Axtell
play defense up to Williams' standards? We know Luke can
score points in bunches. It is a rare player, though, who gets much
playing time at KU if he can't play defense up to Williams'
expectations. If Luke can get 25 minutes a game his outside shooting
will keep the scoreboard ringing and will stretch opposing defenses.
If he can't, Boschee will be the only Jayhawk who can consistently
shoot other teams out of a zone.
The jury is still out on Luke this season.
He is averaging 16 minutes and nearly 9 points a game. He has
played terrifically at times, but has struggled recently. His defense, the biggest concern entering the season,
hasn’t been awful by any means, and has been quite good at times. Overall, though, it isn’t the strong point of his play.
He does a great job in the trap.
He gets where he needs to be, and with his height forces a fair
number of turnovers once the trap is set.
He also has been effective at anticipating passes and getting
into the passing lanes for steals.
Defending his man one-on-one, though, has been more of a challenge
for him. Because he is
6-10 and playing the small forward spot he is often forced to defend
much quicker 6-5 players, and they are getting by him on defense.
This is the flip side of the match-up problem his height gives
other teams’ wing players.
On offense he started the season strongly, but has struggled
recently. He is hitting
38% of his three-pointers, which is just what people expected from
him, but is hitting only 36% overall.
His shot selection behind the arc has been pretty good.
His offense problems have come when he tries to drive to the
hole or gets the ball inside the arc.
He has forced a lot of ill-advised shots in those situations,
which has hurt his effectiveness and likely reduced his playing time.
This problem is revealed dramatically by the fact that he is
hitting only 35% of his two-point shots.
At 6-10 and typically guard by a player at least 3 inches
shorter, he should be well above 50% inside the arc.
When Luke starts to pick his spots better, this number should
rise. But until it does,
he isn’t likely to play any more than he has so far, which will hurt
KU because that leaves Boschee as the only long-range shooter on the
floor for much of the game.
5) Can Hinrich in his freshman season grasp the quicker
more physical college game well enough to give Boschee 10-15 minutes
of rest a game? The Jayhawks don't need Kirk to be a star as
a freshman. But Boschee needs rest and will be more productive for the
Jayhawks playing 25-30 minutes a game than he will be if required to
play 35 minutes a game. If Kirk can grow into a dependable back-up
quarterback the way Robertson did as a freshman, the Jayhawks will be
a much stronger team.
Hinrich is giving Boschee the 15 minutes of rest a game that he
needs, but his play has been erratic.
At times it has been great.
Early in the season he was almost as effective as Boschee,
scoring less but dishing more assists.
His defense has also been quite good. In the last five games,
though, he has started to look much more like a freshman.
His assists have been down and his turnovers have been way up.
On the year, he has 46 assists, more than Boschee on a
per-minute basis, but also has 37 turnovers. Overall, Hinrich has
performed above the expectations most fans had for him before the
season started, but has not met the lofty (and unrealistic)
expectations raised by his first few games.
6) Can Gooden and Collison contribute at least a
combined 30 minutes a game? KU typically uses a four-man
rotation in the post with the starters getting about 25 minutes each,
leaving a combined 30 minutes for the substitutes. Gooden and Collison
both arrive with great credentials, but Div. I ball is a big step up
from high school. If one or both of them can contribute solid minutes
as a freshman KU will have great depth up front. If not, KU's depth in
the paint will be spotty, especially with Lester Earl's uncertain
physical condition.
Gooden and Collison have done everything that one could reasonably
expect from them. They
are averaging a combined 42 minutes.
Collison is a dependable starter and has shown a much stronger
grasp of the fundamentals of posting up, rebounding and defending than
is typical of a freshman post player.
With a 9.5 scoring average and a 6.2 rebounding average he is a
solid contributor. Although coming off the bench and playing slightly fewer
minutes, Gooden’s numbers are even better.
He is averaging 11.7 points per game and 7.7 rebounds per game.
These guys have given KU everything I anticipated at the start of
the season they would need to for the Jayhawks to reach their
potential this season. With
Eric struggling, though, the pressure on them has been greater than
anyone anticipated. If Eric can’t turn things around, both Gooden and Collison
will have to increase their shooting percentages, reduce their
turnovers and reduce their fouls for the team to advance deep into the
tournament. They are,
after all, both freshman and have played like freshman at times.
Collison is prone to silly fouls, a common freshman mistake,
and Gooden tends to make mental mistakes at inopportune times.
Both will be stars for KU in coming seasons. KU won’t be as good as they can be if the team has to rely
on them to be stars this season.
7) Can the Jayhawks pick up where they left off last
season playing team defense and executing the offense?
The Jayhawks have gone through the same learning process this
season that they did last season.
The team is not yet playing with the precision on either
offense or defense that has come to be expected of Jayhawk teams.
The Jayhawks are averaging over 17 turnovers a game, which is
much too many and evidence that the offense isn’t running with
enough efficiency
On defense, with the Jayhawks are holding the opposition to just
under 40% shooting from the field, but they have shown a propensity
for putting the opposition on the free throw line by committing silly
reach-in fouls. The
Jayhawks have committed 45 more fouls than the opposition (3 per game)
this season and have attempted 36 fewer free throws.
They average 21 fouls per game.
By contrast, in 1996-97 the Jayhawks averaged only 18 fouls per
game and averaged 3.5 fewer fouls than the opposition per game.
The Jayhawks have taken significant strides, however, and have
managed to get through the non-conference season with only two losses.
For the Jayhawks to make a deep run in the tournament they will
need to become more effective at using screens and off-the-ball
movement to create good shots.
Let’s
see how my predictions for the season look.
1) Chenowith will be first-team All-Big XII and will be a
Second Team All-American.
I obviously blew this one. Chenowith
would have to make a remarkable transformation to earn any post-season
honors. Even if he continues to play solidly in the conference season,
his very slow non-conference start are likely to keep him off any
podiums in the post season.
2) Boschee and Axtell will combine for more three-pointers
than any duo in KU history.
This won’t likely come to pass, either.
While they may have the highest combined percentage, both have
been relatively selective in taking three-point shots, which isn’t a
bad thing, really.
3) Collison and Gooden will go through the growing pains of
all freshmen but by the end of the season will have Jayhawk fans giddy
over their futures.
I think this one has already come true.
Both have had freshman moments, but both have shown flashes of
brilliance, as well. These
two playing on the blocks together as juniors will be a formidable
combination.
4) Beating MU in Columbia will be just as much fun without
Norm on the sidelines.
I stand by this one.
5) The Jayhawks will finish 30-7, win the Big XII by two
games and make it to the Final Four in the NCAA Tournament.
A 30-7 record still sounds about right.
The Jayhawks have two losses three games into conference play.
With three other conference teams ranked in the Top 25 it will
be difficult to get through conference play with less than 2 or 3
losses. I would bet on
three. Playing on the
road is just plain tough, and the Jayhawks are likely to stumble along
the way. I think that even four losses will be enough to win the
conference title. A trip
to the Final Four is more of a stretch, as it was at the beginning of
the season. But I still
think that KU has the talent to get there if they start playing
rigorous team basketball. And
the Jayhawks are due for the types of breaks that teams typically need
to get to the Final Four.
Notes:
- Against KSU Kansas recorded a season-high 15 steals, including a
career-high four from Jeff Boschee. Tonight against NU they
again nabbed 15 steals.
- Eric Chenowith's 17 rebounds against KUS were the most by a
Jayhawk since Chenowith grabbed 17 rebounds last season against
Texas A&M.
- KU's rebound margin of 11.8 was the largest in the Big 12
heading into this game, which makes NU's dominance of KU on the
boards all the more troublesome.
- Sophomore Jeff Boschee needs six three-point field goals to pass
Steve Woodberry and move into eighth place on KU's all-time career
three-point field goals list. He has 121 career treys.
- Boschee has made at least one three-point field goal in 38
consecutive games. He has made two or more three-point field goals
in nine straight games.
- Chenowith grabbed his 600th career rebound Wednesday night
against KSU. With his third rebound tonight he passed former
Jayhawks Pierre Russell and Richard Scott and moved into 15th
place on KU's all-time career rebounds chart.
- Bradford has dished out at least three assists in every game
this season.
- KU has put together the beginnings on a home court winning
streak. The win tonight was KU's 10th straight home victory.
- Through 15 games, Boschee has just 26 turnovers. Last season,
through 15 games, he committed 58 turnovers.
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