With
four games in the books and a tournament trophy on the shelf we know a
lot more about this Jayhawk team than we did 10 days ago.
The early indications are enough to make Jayhawk fans giddy.
Rather
than do a traditional game summary, I thought I’d take a look at
what we’ve discovered about this team now that they have four games
under their belts.
This team is significantly better than last year:
If the team looks better to you this year than it did last season, the
numbers back you up. The Jayhawks are averaging 95 points per game, 23
more than last year, are shooting 52% from the field, 8 percentage
points higher than last season, are shooting 40.4% from behind the
arc, 8 percentage point higher than last season, are averaging 26
assists per game compared to 15.7 last season and have a team 4-3
assist to turnover ratio, compare to a 1-1 ratio last season. 67% of
KU’s fieldgoals this season have come off of assists compared to 59%
last season.
The
only negative comparison to last year is the number of point allowed.
So far this year the Jayhawks have given up an average of 72.3
points compared to 64.5 last season.
Partly this is due to the more up-tempo style the team is
playing this year. Partly
it is due to the team not playing team defensive as effectively, yet,
as it did the second half of last season.
Granted
that stats over four games are not as indicative of a team’s ability
as a full season of stats, so one can’t conclusively proclaim this
team dramatically better than last year’s squad based only on these
stats. However, the teams
the Jayhawks beat in Alaska were not patsies, and these numbers sure
support the gut impressions of a lot of Jayhawk fans right now.
Axtell
hasn’t lost his shooting stroke.
Luke Axtell has made 7 of 13 three-point attempts for a stellar
53.8 percentage. Many of
his threes haven’t been easy ones. The thing that has impressed me the most is his ability to
hit the three-pointer coming around a screen on the dribble and to do
so several feet behind the line.
The surprising thing about his play has been his knack for
scoring in the lane. He
has a nice move to the hoop on the baseline, has a sweet turn-around
shot and has been effective in head-faking his defender on the blocks.
The
other great thing about his shooting is that it has been timely.
He has a knack for hitting a big three-pointer just when one is
most needed.
He
is scoring in bunches. Despite
averaging just 14 minutes a game, he is averaging nearly 12 points per
game, which is the best scoring efficiency of any player on the team.
Luke’s
defense is a work in progress.
While Luke’s play is nearly flawless on the offensive end,
his defense is still spotty. You
can’t fault his effort. If
you isolate on him during a game you see that he is trying hard and is
exerting a lot of energy. However,
he often finds himself out of position.
He does hustle, but this sometimes causes him more problems. When he loses his man he then sometimes runs at him allowing
his man to blow by him. There was a good example of this last night
when Luke lost his man on the perimeter.
His man got the ball and Luke ran at him.
Luke's man then went right by Luke and drove to the basket. Johnson was forced to try to stop the penetration and fouled
him, putting the man on the line.
I thought it was an offensive foul, but Ashante shouldn't have
been put in that position in the first place.
Part
of Luke’s difficulty on defense is that at 6-9 he’s being asked to
guard players five inches shorter who are usually also a bit quicker.
That
Luke would struggle some on defense was expected.
The point here is that despite Luke’s staggering potential on
offense, he isn’t likely to get a lot more minutes a game until his
defense improves. Luke is such a threat that his defense may not be held to the
same standards as other players for him to earn more minutes, but for
those fans suggesting that he should be playing significantly more
minutes now, I suspect that Coach Williams’ answer would start with
a reminder that even with a team like this one that can out-score most
opponents, Kansas Basketball starts with defense.
Jeff
Boschee has matured as a point guard. To
my mind the primary measure of a point guard is his assist to turnover
ratio. A good point guard
should have at least a 2-to-1 ratio. It’s great when point guards
score points, but the primary job of the point guard is to distribute
the ball. Last season
Jeff’s assist-to-turnover ratio was just a hair over 1-1.
This season it is right at 2-1.
This
improvement hasn’t come at the expense of his scoring though.
Just the opposite, really.
Despite averaging 10 fewer minutes a game so far this season,
his scoring average is up from 10.9 to 11.8.
His scoring has increased not because he’s shooting more.
He’s shooting less. His
scoring has increased because his shooting percentage has been just
incredible. He’s hit
78.6% of his three-point shots (11-14) and 70% overall.
While
those numbers may partly be due to a streak of hot shooting, much of
the reason for his vastly increased shooting percentage is that he is
taking better shots. Last
year Jeff often took three-pointers instead of running the offense.
This season his shots seem more often to come out of the
natural flow of the offense and much more often come after the ball
has been passed three or four times.
With so many other scorers on the team Jeff doesn’t have to
try to create his shots on his own in an attempt to manufacture team
offense. I suspect this
makes him a more relaxed shooter.
It also leads to better, more open shots, which he’s hitting
at a prodigious rate.
With
Luke and Jeff hitting a combined 66% behind the arc no team can afford
to play a pack-in zone against the Jayhawks.
It almost makes you want to play Temple.
Kirk
Hinrich is more than Boschee’s caddy.
Hinrich
has to be the most pleasant surprise of the season. Before the season
started the question concerning Kirk in many fan’s minds was whether
as a freshman he would be able to give Boschee 10-15 minutes of rest a
game without hurting the team. It’s
a big jump from high school to college, after all, and that is
especially true for point guards at KU who have to learn a complicated
offense and meet Williams’ defensive expectations.
Hinrich
not only can sub for Jeff effectively, he’s essentially turned into
a co-starter,
with the team hardly missing a beat when he comes into the game.
He’s not the scorer that Jeff is, averaging only 3.3 points
per game, but he has shown that he can shoot and score when the
opportunity presents itself. He
has 7 more assists (and three more turnovers) than Boschee in less
minutes and is probably a more natural point guard.
Jeff, really, is a small shooting guard who has worked hard to
become an effective point guard.
Kirk
and Jeff give KU a devastating one-two punch.
Against Georgia Kirk struggled, picking up four fouls quickly
and playing only six minutes. He
was a non-factor in the game. Jeff,
though, picked up the slack and scored 18 points in 29 minutes.
Against Georgia Tech Jeff got in early foul trouble.
Kirk came in and dished a team leading 6 assists.
And then in the last 8 minutes of the game when Georgia Tech
was trying to get back into the game, Jeff, scoreless to that point,
came back in with fresh legs and scored 8 quick points that put
Georgia Tech away for good.
Jeff
and Kirk have different strengths and weaknesses, but KU seems equally
effective regardless of which of them is at the helm.
And that’s a rare luxury for a college team.
Drew
Gooden is a raw talent of immense proportions:
Gooden displayed both that his talent is immense and still very
raw in Alaska. Drew Gooden’s election as the tournament’s Most
Outstanding Player was based more on his explosion at the start of the
second half against Georgia Tech than on his play over all three
games. Kenny Gregory, who
inexplicably was left off the all-tournament team, was the Jayhawks’
most outstanding performer measured over the span of all three games.
Nevertheless, Gooden was phenomenal against Tech.
He scored
20 of KU's first 58 points and eight straight points in a 15-3 run
early in the second half that effectively buried the Yellow Jackets.
He
scored from about everywhere. He
scored from just inside the three-point line, demonstrating his pure
shooting touch out on the floor.
He scored on the blocks showing the best jump-hook at KU since
Manning, and he scored off of offensive rebounds.
In the final game he hit 9 of 14 shots and looked unstoppable.
That is the immense side of his talent.
In
the first two games he showed that this talent is still raw.
On the season he’s only shooting 45%, and in the first two
games of the tournament hit only 7 of 23 shots.
His low percentage was a direct result of some questionable
shot selection and attempts to tip the ball one-handed when a clean
rebound and stuff would have been more affective.
He struggled at times on defense, as well.
He has the raw ability to be a fine defender, but too often bit
on head fakes and was a step late getting into position.
Drew
is leading the team in rebounds and there isn’t any reason to
suspect that he won’t continue to do so all season.
He’s got both the instincts and the physical gifts to be one
of the best rebounders in KU history. Although Collison is the more refined player at this point,
it will be Gooden over whom Vitale and his ilk will gush the next time
the Jayhawks are on national television.
Ashante
Johnson will contribute.
After a long season at the end of the KU bench last year trying
to recover from the knee injury he suffered at Late Night, Ashante
Johnson looks ready to be a regular and important contributor off the
bench. With a 5.8 scoring
average in only 7 minutes a game, his points per minute are second
only to Axtell. In four
games he is yet to commit a turnover.
He has a solid turnaround jumper in the blocks and a nice touch
facing the basket. He
also runs the break well. For
two years we’ve heard how well Johnson plays in pick-up games.
We are beginning to see his talents in games.
Johnson’s
biggest problem this year is one of numbers.
Collison, Gooden and Chenowith are each going to get a lot of
minutes, leaving only about 15 a game for a fourth post player.
So far this season those minutes have been divided between
Johnson and Lester. I
don’t know how Williams can solve that problem, but Johnson looks
like he intends to make the most of whatever minutes he can get.
Nick
Bradford deserves every minute he plays. Coach
Williams has been praising Nick Bradford’s senior leadership ever
since practice started, and Nick was one of the first players Williams
identified as a sure starter. Still,
it seems there are some fans either enamored of Axtell’s scoring or
who still think of Nick as he was as a freshman--a
turnover-waiting-to-happen wearing big socks--who wonder why he is
getting more minutes than anyone but Chenowith.
Here’s
the answer. Bradford
leads the team in assists (21) and has the best assist to turnover
ratio on the team (2.625), leads the team in steals (9) with more than
double any other Jayhawk, and is averaging 9.8 points per game.
And his scoring is efficient; he’s shooting 61% from the
filed. Bradford has
earned every minute and to my mind is the glue that holds this team
together.
Kenny Gregory is much improved Kenny
is leading the team in scoring with 17.8 point per game. That alone isn’t enough to proclaim Kenny out of his
sophomore slump. This
time last year he was KU’s leading scorer before slumping and losing
his starting spot by the middle of the season.
It is the rest of his play that looks so much improved.
Set aside the stats and just watch him play.
He looks like he’s just having a lot more fun.
He looks energized. Part
of that may be due to the fact that KU’s up-tempo style this year
plays to his strength—running the floor on the break.
But I think it goes beyond that.
He seems to have a renewed dedication to the team concept.
Unlike last year he seems just as comfortable in the half-court
game as in transition and only rarely has appeared to get frustrated
by a slower tempo and force a one-on-one shot as a result.
He also seems much more focused and comfortable on defense.
His
early numbers are revealing. Last
season he averaged 11.8 points per game playing 25 minutes a game.
This season he’s getting 6 more points per game playing three
less minutes. Last season
he committed a turnover for every assist this year he’s getting two
assists for every turnover and has both increased his assists per game
and reduced his turnovers per game.
Playing
fewer minutes and playing on a much bigger team he has still increased
his rebounding average by 2 per game, averaging 6.8 compared to 4.7
last season.
It’s
a bit early to know whether his outside shooting has improved.
He’s missed all three three-point shots he’s taken this
year, but he’s hit a bunch of shots in the 15-18 foot range.
The test for Kenny will be to keep these numbers going in this
positive direction, but it is apparent why Coach Williams identified
him as one of the players playing the best in practice.
Except
at the free throw line
Kenny’s performance at the stripe is still his Achilles’
heel. For the season
he’s only hitting 45% and still looks uncomfortable.
He missed the first of two free throws on three occasions
against Georgia Tech, air-balling one of them.
The only positive sign is that he made the second on all three
occasions. Against
Georgia Williams put Gregory on the bench in the closing moments
undoubtedly because he didn’t want Kenny at the line.
If this stat doesn’t improve KU will miss Kenny at the end of
close games where his athleticism could help the Jayhawks.
The
Jayhawks won’t have many off nights.
Teams that have only one or two go-to guys are susceptible to
off night. If the scorers
aren’t clicking, such a team can be quite vulnerable.
The Jayhawks don’t appear to have any primary go-to guy.
Rather they have about 7 guys who can carry the team on any
given night. Consider
Boschee who scored 18 and 16 in the first two games in Alaska but was
scoreless through three-quarters of the game against Georgia Tech.
The Jayhawks didn’t miss a beat and were winning by 23.
Three
different Jayhawks have led the team in scoring in only four game and
the Jayhawks have had at least five players score in double figures in
three of their four games. On
any given night Chenowith, Gooden, Collison, Boschee, Gregory or
Bradford could lead the team in scoring without anyone being the least
bit surprised. Eight
different KU players have scored in double figures on at lest one
occasion in just the first four games.
Not
only does this mean that defenses can’t focus on only one player, it
means that KU’s players are likely to play very loosely.
None of the Jayhawks have to feel that the team’s success
depends on whether they are scoring on a given night.
One suspects that this will have to make it easier for all of
the players to relax and just stroke their shots.
Chenowith
is struggling:
The only disappointment so far this season is that Chenowith
hasn’t picked up where he left off last season.
Eric is very talented and is worthy of his preseason accolades
when he is aggressive under the basket and takes the ball strongly to
the hoop. Eric improved
upon that during the course of last season and started routinely
getting double-doubles in conference play.
So far this season he has mostly reverted to passive play and
his numbers have suffered as a result.
Last year he averaged 13.5 points and 9.1 rebounds. He is
averaging only 9.8 points and 6 rebounds a game this year despite
playing the most minutes of anyone on the team.
Williams
said before the season began that Eric needed to improve his shooting
percentage. Last season
he shot only 44% from the field, far below the 60% one expects from a
post player. The primary cause of his low shooting percentage is his
tendency to be satisfied with fade-away shots rather than attacking
the basket. So far this
season his shooting percentage is lower than last season at 40% and,
except for moments in the first half against Georgia Tech, he has
failed to attack the basket.
Eric
started slowly last season before coming on and he may well do the
same this season. Whether
KU is simply a very good team or one of the very best in the nation
may depend, though, on whether Eric becomes the force inside he has
the potential to be.
This team is going to be
fun to watch. The
Jayhawks have looked a little sloppy at times, and the defense is
still coming around, but my goodness is this team fun to watch. They can score equally effectively in the half-court offense
and in transition, pass the ball well, rebound well, and score in huge
bunches. Regardless of
how the season ends or how many games the team ultimately wins, this
is going to be one of the most entertaining seasons Williams has given
us.
By the numbers:
As we have every season, Dave
and I (well mostly Dave) will update the team season-to-date stats
after every game and will update individual player stats broken out by
game every week or two. Here’s
the link to the season-to-date
stats. Click on a
player’s name on that page to find their individual stats broken out
by each game.
If
you haven’t already discovered it, Dave has compiled complete stats
for every player and every team since the beginning of KU basketball,
creating the most complete set of KU stats anywhere on the web or
anywhere at all except in the files of the KU athletic department.
There isn’t a college basketball team in the country whose
stats are so well documented on the web.
I tip my hat to my friend and partner for this remarkable
achievement.
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