predictions for St. John's game

It's a 4/5 matchup, so you should expect it to be close.  But normally you'd expect
the 4 seed to be favored over the 5 seed.  Not so today.  Every single ranking I've
examined has St. John's ranked higher than Kansas.  Why St. John's was underseeded,
you'd have to ask the Selection Committee.  Maybe Kansas was rewarded for playing
what multiple ranking systems call the toughest schedule in Division I.  St. John's
schedule is no slouch.  The Big East has everybody in the top tier of Division I.
The various prognosticators match the rankings, with everyone picking the Red Storm.
Dunkel is the most pessimistic, giving St. John's an 8 point margin.  Dolphin is the
most optimistic, giving St. John's just a 1 point margin.  The average is 2.9 points,
with a scatter of 1.72 points.  On other words, it is expected to be a one-possession
affair.

St. John's has the better offense, ranked #39 by Pomeroy, a fair bit better than
Kansas' #57.  The two defenses are essentially the same, ranked adjacent to one
another, with Kansas having the ever-so-slight edge.  St. John's has the #69 tempo,
compared to #158 for Kansas, so one might expect a higher-scoring game, though that
assumes the lid comes off the basket for Kansas.  These last two games, the Jayhawks
have had trouble hitting the broad side of a barn in the second halves.

If you look at the "Players to watch" section below, you see Zuby Ejiofor leading his
team in every category except steals.  Controlling him would seem to be the key to
winning the game.  If he has any weaknesses that can be exploited, you might expect
Self to know what they are better than anyone else.  Then again, Zuby may have overcome
those weaknesses since the time he was a Jayhawk.  Bidunga is a excellent defender, so
hopefully he can keep Zuby in check.  Getting Zuby into foul trouble might be one
successful strategy.

St. John's is a bit more inconsistent than Kansas, and they've played six games
double digits above or below expectation in their last nine games, four of them on
the plus side.  Kansas has played five such games in their last eight, but with four
of them on the minus side.  That sort of inconsistency makes this game that much harder
to predict.  That is, it might not be close at all.  Jayhawk fans can hope that the law of
averages comes into play here and Kansas plays double-digits above expectation, though
single-digits could be enough to win.

St. John's has a positive trend, but it's not statistically significant.  Their mental
toughness is negative and has some significance to it, but that helps against a team
rated lower than your own, which happens to be the case here.  The trend and mental
toughness ratings make for the second-most pessimistic of the predictions, giving
St. John's a 4.55 point margin.

Self played eight against the Lancers, though the eighth wasn't Rosario or even Dawson.
Rather Mbiya played significant minutes and contributed in points and rebounds.  That
could be a plus, as the lack of scoring in recent second-halves could be a sign of
tired legs.  More depth could be key to a deep run.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     STJ      KU      Defensive Stats     STJ      KU
Points/Game         81.5    75.4     Opp Points/Game     69.5    69.1
Avg Score Margin   +12.0    +6.3     Opp Effective FG %  47.2    45.1
Assists/Game        16.2    14.1     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.9     9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   38.8    38.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.0    26.9
Effective FG %      51.1    51.3     Blocks/Game          4.9     5.7
Off Rebound %       33.6    28.0     Steals/Game          7.8     5.5
FTA/FGA            0.418   0.322     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.1    14.4
Turnover %          12.4    13.3   

My Stats Comparison        KU             STJ 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.75           +1.63    
inconsistency         10.97           11.54    
trend                 -0.26 ± 0.19    +0.13 ± 0.19
mental toughness      -0.27 ± 0.20    -0.31 ± 0.24         
average total pts     144.79          150.40 
total pts reg         143,29          150.03

Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents, namely Iowa State, Baylor, and Connecticut, the
last of which St. John's has played three times, and the first of which Kansas has
played twice, giving us six scores to compare:

KU  +21 ISU at home (+17 neutral court)     KU  -18 ISU on road (-14 neutral court)
STJ  -1 ISU neutral ( -1 neutral court)     STJ  -1 ISU neutral ( -1 neutral court)
KU  +18 STJ neutral (+18 neutral court)     KU  -13 STJ neutral (-13 neutral court)

KU  +18 BU  at home (+14 neutral court)
STJ +15 BU  neutral (+15 neutral court)
KU   -1 STJ neutral ( -1 neutral court)

KU   -5 Con at home ( -9 neutral court)     KU   -5 Con at home ( -9 neutral court)
STJ  +9 Con at home ( +5 neutral court)     STJ -32 Con on road (-28 neutral court)
KU  -14 STJ neutral (-14 neutral court)     KU  +19 STJ neutral (+19 neutral court)

KU   -5 Con at home ( -9 neutral court)
STJ +20 Con at home (+16 neutral court)
KU  -25 STJ neutral (-25 neutral court)

Two of the comparisons favor Kansas while four favor St. John's.  The average is
2.67 points in favor of St. John's, with a scatter of 18.07 points.  Note that the
Big East Tournament game against UConn was played in Madison Square Garden, which
is where St. John's plays some, but not all, of their home games.  In particular,
the regular season "home" game against UConn was played in Madison Square Garden,
so for purposes of this posting, I am treating all of St. John's Big East Tournament
games as home games.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Zuby Ejiofor (forward)
most points        Zuby Ejiofor (forward)
most rebounds      Zuby Ejiofor (forward)
most assists       Zuby Ejiofor (forward)
most steals        Dylan Darling (guard)
most blocks        Zuby Ejiofor (forward)
most turnovers     Zuby Ejiofor (forward)
most fouls         Zuby Ejiofor (forward)

Reserve guard Kelvin Odih is out with a leg injury; he averages 5.4 minutes,
1.5 points, and 1.9 rebounds per game.  Reserve guard Casper Pohto is out with a
hip injury; he average 4.3 minutes, 0.3 points, and 0.7 rebounds per game.  Reserve
Forward Imran Suljianovic is out with a knee injury.

                                                          24-10         29-6 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       St. John's
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -2.00   72   74       44       # 19   #  5    # 10   # 42
Pomeroy                 -1.52   74   75       44.3     # 21   #  1    # 14   # 48
Greenfield              -3.50   70.5 74                # 20   # 12    # 12   # 29
Dunkel                  -8.00   70   78                # 23           #  9
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -3.50   70   74       41.8                             
Dolphin Predictive      -1.17   72   73       45.9     # 22   # 10    # 10   # 33
DPPI                    -2.60   73   75       43.2     # 23   #  1    # 12   # 21 
ESPN Bet/BPI            -3.50   70.5 74                # 23   #  3    # 15   # 13
Whitlock                -1.32                          # 19   #  1    # 13   # 29
Colley Matrix           -1.52                          # 16   #  1    #  9   # 37 
Donchess                -3.10   72   75.5     41.9     # 21   #  1    # 13   # 32
Haslametrics            -2.19   71   73                # 24           # 18
INCCStats               -2.00   72   74       42       # 21           # 12
common opponents        -2.67 
trend and mental        -4.55
NCAA NET                                               # 21           # 16
LRMC                                                   # 23   #  4    #  9   # 11
Massey composite                                       # 19           # 13
Pomeroy offense                                        # 57           # 39
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           # 10
Pomeroy tempo                                          #158           # 69
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -2.88   71.6 74.5     43.3 
scatter                  1.72    1.3  1.4      1.5

Here is Kansas' season, with the highest seeds chosen as the most likely opponents
in later rounds of the NCAA tournament, should Kansas advance (indicating a 0.18
percent chance of winning the championship):

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #210 Green Bay                   94  51   +20.94   +22.06
AWAY   # 31 North Carolina              74  87    -0.80   -12.20
HOME   #172 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +19.73   +11.27
HOME   #253 Princeton                   76  57   +23.53    -4.53
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  78    -8.93    -3.07
NEUT   # 90 Notre Dame                  71  61   +10.30    -0.30
NEUT   # 85 Syracuse                    71  60    +9.93    +1.07
NEUT   # 15 Tennessee                   81  76    -1.42    +6.42
HOME   # 10 Connecticut                 56  61    +1.38    -6.38
NEUT   # 54 Missouri                    80  69    +6.19    +4.81
AWAY   # 35 N.C. State                  77  76    -0.07    +1.07
HOME   #158 Towson                      73  49   +18.33    +5.67
HOME   #108 Davidson                    90  61   +15.44   +13.56
AWAY   # 53 UCF                         75  81    +2.86    -8.86
HOME   # 42 TCU                        104 100    +8.01    -4.01
AWAY   # 60 West Virginia               75  86    +3.37   -14.37
HOME   #  7 Iowa St.                    84  63    -2.09   +23.09
HOME   # 50 Baylor                      80  62    +9.10    +8.90
AWAY   # 69 Colorado                    75  69    +4.83    +1.17
AWAY   #100 Kansas St.                  86  62    +9.01   +14.99
HOME   # 24 BYU                         90  82    +4.47    +3.53
AWAY   # 19 Texas Tech                  64  61    -4.49    +7.49
HOME   #125 Utah                        71  59   +17.01    -5.01
HOME   #  2 Arizona                     82  78    -5.88    +9.88
AWAY   #  7 Iowa St.                    56  74    -9.09    -8.91
AWAY   # 68 Oklahoma St.                81  69    +5.13    +6.87
HOME   # 43 Cincinnati                  68  84    +8.06   -24.06
HOME   #  4 Houston                     69  56    -2.99   +15.99
AWAY   #  2 Arizona                     61  84   -12.88   -10.12
AWAY   # 66 Arizona St.                 60  70    +4.63   -14.63
HOME   #100 Kansas St.                 104  85   +16.01    +2.99
NEUT   # 42 TCU                         78  73    +4.51    +0.49            CUMU.
NEUT   #  4 Houston                     47  69    -6.49   -15.51            PROB.
NEUT   #105 Cal Baptist                 68  60   +12.00    -4.00            -----
NEUT   # 14 St. John's                  74  75    -1.52             0.443   0.443
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        67  76    -8.93             0.199   0.088
NEUT   # 10 Connecticut                 69  71    -2.12             0.421   0.037
NEUT   #  5 Florida                     73  80    -6.80             0.260   0.010
NEUT   #  2 Arizona                     72  81    -9.38             0.188   0.002

Here is St. John's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #217 Quinnipiac                 108  74   +25.39    +8.61
HOME   # 17 Alabama                     96 103    +3.80   -10.80
HOME   #144 William & Mary              93  60   +22.15   +10.85
HOME   #331 Bucknell                    97  49   +33.12   +14.88
NEUT   #  7 Iowa St.                    82  83    -4.23    +3.23
NEUT   # 50 Baylor                      96  81    +7.28    +7.72
NEUT   # 38 Auburn                      74  85    +5.29   -16.29
HOME   # 65 Mississippi                 63  58   +12.92    -7.92
HOME   #257 Iona                        91  64   +27.44    -0.44
HOME   #102 DePaul                      79  66   +16.90    -3.90
NEUT   # 28 Kentucky                    66  78    +3.42   -15.42
HOME   #152 Harvard                     85  59   +19.86    +6.14
AWAY   # 79 Georgetown                  95  83    +7.11    +4.89
HOME   # 71 Providence                  71  77   +14.26   -20.26
AWAY   # 87 Butler                      84  70    +8.50    +5.50
AWAY   # 77 Creighton                   90  73    +7.26    +9.74
HOME   # 83 Marquette                   92  68   +15.31    +8.69
AWAY   # 34 Villanova                   86  79    +1.24    +5.76
HOME   # 51 Seton Hall                  65  60   +10.69    -5.69
AWAY   # 96 Xavier                      88  63   +10.27   +14.73
HOME   # 87 Butler                      92  70   +15.50    +6.50
AWAY   #102 DePaul                      68  56    +9.90    +2.10
HOME   # 10 Connecticut                 81  72    +2.77    +6.23
HOME   # 96 Xavier                      87  82   +17.27   -12.27
AWAY   # 71 Providence                  79  69    +7.26    +2.74
AWAY   # 83 Marquette                   76  70    +8.31    -2.31
HOME   # 77 Creighton                   81  52   +14.26   +14.74
AWAY   # 10 Connecticut                 40  72    -4.23   -27.77
HOME   # 34 Villanova                   89  57    +8.24   +23.76
HOME   # 79 Georgetown                  72  69   +14.11   -11.11
AWAY   # 51 Seton Hall                  72  65    +3.69    +3.31
HOME   # 71 Providence                  85  72   +14.26    -1.26
HOME   # 51 Seton Hall                  78  68   +10.69    -0.69
HOME   # 10 Connecticut                 72  52    +2.77   +17.23
NEUT   # 80 Northern Iowa               79  53   +10.13   +15.87
NEUT   # 21 Kansas                      75  74    +1.52             0.557