predictions for California Baptist game

(in my best Kosh) And so it begins.

The latest Pomeroy ratings favor Kansas by 12 points over California Baptist.
Only once did the Lancers play above expectation by more than 12 points out of
33 games for a 3 percent chance of beating the Jayhawks, though they played
another five games 10 to 11 points above expectation, suggesting that they
could make things uncomfortable for Jayhawk fans.  Of course, Kansas has played
more than 12 points below expectation on four occasions during the season, three
of those coming in the last seven games, corresponding to a 12 percent chance of
losing.  Average those two and you get a 7.6 percent chance of Kansas going home
after Friday's game.

With the current WAC having only seven teams, you have to play your six opponents
three times apiece to have an 18 game conference season.  Add in the conference
tournament, and Cal Baptist has played a couple of teams four times, meaning less
exposure to different styles of play.  That could work in the Jayhawks' favor.
Pomeroy ranks their offense #191, which is below the Division I median, while
their defense is their calling card, ranked #50.  Their tempo ranks #265, for
which the closest Big XII comparison would be Utah.

There are actually three common opponents, as Cal Baptist ended their non-conference
slate with three Big XII teams, namely Colorado, BYU, and Utah.  Those were the
Lancers' first three losses of the season.  The score comparisons favor Kansas by
over 18 points, but that is not the most favorable of the various prognostications.
Dunkel is picking the Jayhawks by 23 points, but that's Dunkel.  Colley's more
RPI-like ranking system, which rewards good win-loss records, ranks CBU at #71,
the highest of any of the power rankings tabulated below, which translates into a
margin of just 9 points.  But that is not the most pessimistic of the prognostications.
Don Davis' system is picking the Jayhawks by only 8 points.  The average is 13.6
points, with a scatter of 3.7 points.

Is Kansas better without Peterson?  Over the time Peterson has been "healthy", which
I'll take to be the time since he played less than 20 minutes (only 18 minutes against
Oklahoma State), Kansas has played seven games, with the following results:

Peterson plays 32 minutes, Jayhawks play 24 points below expectation (Cincinnati)
Peterson plays 30 minutes, Jayhawks play 15 points above expectation (Houston, Big Monday)
Peterson plays 31 minutes, Jayhawks play 10 points below expectation (Arizona)
Peterson plays 34 minutes, Jayhawks play 15 points below expectation (Arizona State)
Peterson plays 29 minutes, Jayhawks play  3 points above expectation (Kansas State, Senior Night)
Peterson plays 37 minutes, Jayhawks play  0 points below expectation (TCU, Big XII tournament)
Peterson plays 28 minutes, Jayhawks play 16 points below expectation (Houston, Big XII tournament)

That's four really bad performances, and two so-so performances, one of which was on
Senior Night, when other emotions come into play, and the other was in the Big XII
tournament, which carries somewhat different pressure.  The outlier is the home
Big Monday game, for which Self has an incredible 41-0 record.  Obviously, the overall
poor showing with a healthy Peterson isn't due to lack of skill, as the guy is talented.
What it suggests is that the Jayhawks have not yet learned how to play with Peterson,
and Peterson hasn't learned how to play with the rest of the Jayhawks.  We hoped that
there might be enough time for the learning procecss to occur before the post-season,
but there is little evidence to suggest that it has occurred.  We can hope that the
brighter lights and bigger stage of the Big Dance will trigger an epiphany, or it could
turn into a one-man show trying to strut his stuff for the NBA scouts.  If the former
turns out to be the case, Kansas could still win a National Championship.  In the
espn.com article that shows Jay Bilas' picks for every tournament game, he wrote
"Though Kansas can beat anyone, the Jayhawks can also lose to just about anyone.
And St. John's isn't just anyone.  Winner: St. John's"  That pretty much sums things
up.  Double-team, triple-team Peterson, and dare everyone else to beat you.  They can,
as the win over Arizona demonstrated.  But insert Peterson into the lineup and the
offense sputters.  But Kansas can't really afford to not play Peterson.  We just saw
what happened to North Carolina.  Davis played only six Tar Heels in the second half,
and they ran out of gas.  In the overtime, they had no legs and missed all eight of
their field goal attempts.  The only points they scored came at the charity stripe,
where they went three for four.  Only 3 points in a 5 minute overtime.  That's like
scoring only 24 points in regulation.  Self has been playing only seven Jayhawks for
the most part.  He can probably afford to go a little deeper into the bench against
the Lancers, and everybody has had a week between games, so today's game shouldn't
be a big problem, but we should be prepared to see a bit more of Rosario and Dawson
moving forward.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     CBU      KU      Defensive Stats     CBU      KU
Points/Game         73.0    75.6     Opp Points/Game     67.6    69.4
Avg Score Margin    +5.5    +6.2     Opp Effective FG %  46.4    45.2
Assists/Game        10.3    14.3     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.8     9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   39.9    38.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.0    26.9
Effective FG %      48.6    51.6     Blocks/Game          2.9     5.7
Off Rebound %       36.0    28.0     Steals/Game          5.5     5.5
FTA/FGA            0.361   0.326     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.7    14.4
Turnover %          15.1    13.4   

My Stats Comparison        KU             CBU 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.84           +0.30    
inconsistency         11.07            9.63    
trend                 -0.27 ± 0.20    +0.21 ± 0.18
mental toughness      -0.31 ± 0.21    -0.01 ± 0.21         
average total pts     145.30          140.61 
total pts reg         143.75          138.31

Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents:

KU   +6 CU  on road (+10 neutral court)
CBU  -8 CU  on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU  +14 CBU neutral (+14 neutral court)

KU   +8 BYU at home ( +4 neutral court)
CBU -31 BYU on road (-27 neutral court)
KU  +31 CBU neutral (+31 neutral court)

KU  +12 UU  at home ( +8 neutral court)
CBU  -6 UU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU  +10 CBU neutral (+10 neutral court)

All three comparisons favor Kansas by an average of 18.33 points, with a scatter of
11.15 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Dominique Daniels Jr. (guard)
most points        Dominique Daniels Jr. (guard)
most rebounds      Thomas Ndong (forward)
most assists       Dominique Daniels Jr. (guard)
most steals        Devon Malcolm (forward)
most blocks        Jonathan Griman (forward)
most turnovers     Dominique Daniels Jr. (guard)
most fouls         Jonathan Griman (forward)

                                                          23-9          25-8 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Cal Baptist
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                 +15.00   76   61       94       # 18   #  4    #102   #156
Pomeroy                +12.00   75   63       87.2     # 21   #  1    #106   #204
Greenfield             +14.50   75.5 61                # 21   #  9    #127   #151
Dunkel                 +23.00   83   60       93.1     # 23           # 77
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +13.50   76   62                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +14.48   76   61       90.5     # 22   #  6    #109   #154
DPPI                    +8.10   74.5 66       72.3     # 23   #  1    #116   #203 
ESPN Bet/BPI           +14.50   76.5 62                # 22   #  3    #137   #224
Whitlock               +11.28                          # 19   #  1    #100   #147
Colley Matrix           +9.14                          # 15   #  1    # 71   #204 
Donchess               +13.40   76   63       91.0     # 21   #  1    #109   #190
Haslametrics           +12.55   74   61                # 25           #102
INCCStats              +14.00   74   60       90       # 21           #112
common opponents       +18.33
trend and mental        +9.93
NCAA NET                                               # 21           # 98
LRMC                                                   # 23   #  4    #139   #230
Massey composite                                       # 18           # 93
Pomeroy offense                                        # 57           #191
Pomeroy defense                                        # 10           # 50
Pomeroy tempo                                          #164           #265
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +13.58   76.1 61.8     88.3 
scatter                  3.66    2.5  1.7      7.4

Here is Kansas' season, with the highest seeds chosen as the most likely opponents
in later rounds of the NCAA tournament, should Kansas advance (indicating a 0.16
percent chance of winning the championship):

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #210 Green Bay                   94  51   +20.88   +22.12
AWAY   # 29 North Carolina              74  87    -1.14   -11.86
HOME   #174 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +19.65   +11.35
HOME   #252 Princeton                   76  57   +23.38    -4.38
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  78    -9.38    -2.62
NEUT   # 89 Notre Dame                  71  61   +10.12    -0.12
NEUT   # 83 Syracuse                    71  60    +9.82    +1.18
NEUT   # 16 Tennessee                   81  76    -1.09    +6.09
HOME   # 11 Connecticut                 56  61    +1.27    -6.27
NEUT   # 52 Missouri                    80  69    +5.90    +5.10
AWAY   # 34 N.C. State                  77  76    -0.21    +1.21
HOME   #157 Towson                      73  49   +18.20    +5.80
HOME   #114 Davidson                    90  61   +15.78   +13.22
AWAY   # 54 UCF                         75  81    +2.88    -8.88
HOME   # 43 TCU                        104 100    +8.06    -4.06
AWAY   # 59 West Virginia               75  86    +3.34   -14.34
HOME   #  6 Iowa St.                    84  63    -1.77   +22.77
HOME   # 49 Baylor                      80  62    +9.14    +8.86
AWAY   # 70 Colorado                    75  69    +4.88    +1.12
AWAY   #101 Kansas St.                  86  62    +9.10   +14.90
HOME   # 23 BYU                         90  82    +4.26    +3.74
AWAY   # 20 Texas Tech                  64  61    -4.02    +7.02
HOME   #126 Utah                        71  59   +17.04    -5.04
HOME   #  2 Arizona                     82  78    -5.70    +9.70
AWAY   #  6 Iowa St.                    56  74    -8.77    -9.23
AWAY   # 66 Oklahoma St.                81  69    +4.93    +7.07
HOME   # 44 Cincinnati                  68  84    +8.12   -24.12
HOME   #  5 Houston                     69  56    -2.21   +15.21
AWAY   #  2 Arizona                     61  84   -12.70   -10.30
AWAY   # 67 Arizona St.                 60  70    +4.59   -14.59
HOME   #101 Kansas St.                 104  85   +16.10    +2.90            CUMU.
NEUT   # 43 TCU                         78  73    +4.56    +0.44            PROB.
NEUT   #  5 Houston                     47  69    -5.71   -16.29            -----
NEUT   #106 Cal Baptist                 75  63   +12.00             0.872   0.872
NEUT   # 17 St. John's                  74  75    -1.03             0.461   0.402
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  76    -9.38             0.188   0.076
NEUT   # 11 Connecticut                 68  71    -2.23             0.416   0.031
NEUT   #  4 Florida                     73  80    -6.57             0.267   0.008
NEUT   #  2 Arizona                     71  81    -9.20             0.192   0.002

Here is California Baptist's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #302 USC Upstate                 87  75   +15.48    -3.48
AWAY   #104 UC Irvine                   69  61    -3.63   +11.63
HOME   #364 Western Illinois            69  59   +25.55   -15.55
HOME   #258 UC Riverside                80  57   +12.54   +10.46
HOME   #298 Grambling St.               72  59   +15.04    -2.04
NEUT   #224 San Diego                   76  61    +7.22    +7.78
AWAY   #177 Oregon St.                  75  69    +0.64    +5.36
AWAY   # 70 Colorado                    70  78    -7.54    -0.46
AWAY   # 23 BYU                         60  91   -15.18   -15.82
AWAY   #126 Utah                        85  91    -2.04    -3.96
AWAY   #171 Eastern Washington          88  83    +0.41    +4.59
HOME   #279 Southern                    75  67   +14.17    -6.17
HOME   #265 Sacramento St.              74  67   +13.40    -6.40
AWAY   # 90 Utah Valley                 66  73    -5.36    -1.64
AWAY   #154 UT Arlington                51  63    -0.44   -11.56
AWAY   #221 Tarleton St.                76  81    +3.45    -8.45
HOME   #188 Utah Tech                   84  72    +8.55    +3.45
HOME   #251 Southern Utah               58  55   +12.45    -9.45
AWAY   #242 Abilene Christian           74  58    +4.68   +11.32
HOME   #188 Utah Tech                   73  64    +8.55    +0.45
HOME   # 90 Utah Valley                 78  71    +1.64    +5.36
AWAY   #154 UT Arlington                87  77    -0.44   +10.44
HOME   #221 Tarleton St.                56  55   +10.45    -9.45
HOME   #242 Abilene Christian           65  63   +11.68    -9.68
AWAY   #251 Southern Utah               83  66    +5.45   +11.55
AWAY   #188 Utah Tech                   65  70    +1.55    -6.55
AWAY   # 90 Utah Valley                 46  65    -5.36   -13.64
HOME   #154 UT Arlington                68  56    +6.56    +5.44
HOME   #221 Tarleton St.                82  67   +10.45    +4.55
HOME   #242 Abilene Christian           87  48   +11.68   +27.32
AWAY   #251 Southern Utah               82  75    +5.45    +1.55
NEUT   #188 Utah Tech                   86  72    +5.05    +8.95
NEUT   # 90 Utah Valley                 63  61    -1.86    +3.86
NEUT   # 21 Kansas                      63  75   -12.00             0.128