predictions for Houston game

Breaking news:  the Big XII is doing away with the glass LED court and switching to
traditional hardwood overnight.  Good riddance.

I'll keep this short, as it's already late in the day.  It took overnight for some
of the prognosticators to post their predictions for today's semifinal games.

Dunkel is picking Kansas, but by a single point.  Everybody else is picking Houston.
The least favorable prediction comes from the trend and mental toughness values,
which favor Houston by a bit over 8 points.  Not too surprising, as Kansas has limped
into the post-season with three "worse than you are" performances in their last five
regular season games, one of them being way worse (Cincinnati home game).  The finale
against Kansas State was merely a "who you are" result.  The sole "better than you
are" result came against -- you guessed it -- Houston, which provides some reason for
optimism.  The average of fifteen prognostications favors Houston by 4.43 points, with
a scatter of 2.02 points, basically a two-possession affair.  We can hope that Peterson
will make more field goals while maintaining his excellence at the charity stripe (he
made almost as many as the entire TCU team made).  Speaking of which, Elmarko was a
perfect 10 of 10 in charities.  The TCU game was won at the stripe.

Houston still has one of the slowest tempos in all of Division I, ranking 345 out of
365 teams, according to Pomeroy.  We won't get as many possessions, so we need to take
advantage of the ones we do get and score.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UH      KU      Defensive Stats      UH      KU
Points/Game         77.5    76.5     Opp Points/Game     62.8    69.4
Avg Score Margin   +14.7    +7.1     Opp Effective FG %  46.9    45.1
Assists/Game        14.8    14.5     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.8     8.8
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.5    38.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.8    27.2
Effective FG %      52.2    52.2     Blocks/Game          3.9     5.8
Off Rebound %       34.4    27.9     Steals/Game          8.0     5.6
FTA/FGA            0.268   0.326     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.0    14.5
Turnover %          10.9    13.5   

My Stats Comparison        KU              UH 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.65           +1.29    
inconsistency         10.79            9.44    
trend                 -0.20 ± 0.21    +0.14 ± 0.18
mental toughness      -0.25 ± 0.21    -0.14 ± 0.16         
average total pts     146.22          140.34 
total pts reg         144.63          139.78

Common Opponents
================
There are eighteen common opponents, four non-conference (Towson plus three from
the Players Era Festival, namely Syracuse, Tennessee, and Notre Dame), and fourteen
in conference, four of which Houston has played twice (Cincinnati, Texas Tech,
Baylor, and BYU in the tournament), four of which Kansas has played twice (Iowa
State, Arizona, Kansas State, and TCU in the tournament), plus the head-to-head in
Lawrence, giving us a whopping twenty seven scores to compare:

KU  +24 Tow at home (+20 neutral court)
UH  +17 Tow at home (+13 neutral court)
KU   +7 UH  neutral ( +7 neutral court)

KU  +11 Syr neutral (+11 neutral court)
UH   +4 Syr neutral ( +4 neutral court)
KU   +7 UH  neutral ( +7 neutral court)

KU   +5 Ten neutral ( +5 neutral court)
UH   -3 Ten neutral ( -3 neutral court)
KU   +8 UH  neutral ( +8 neutral court)

KU  +10 ND  neutral (+10 neutral court)
UH  +10 ND  neutral (+10 neutral court)
KU    0 UH  neutral (  0 neutral court)

KU  -16 Cin at home (-20 neutral court)     KU  -16 Cin at home (-20 neutral court)
UH   +7 Cin on road (+11 neutral court)     UH  +22 Cin at home (+18 neutral court)
KU  -31 UH  neutral (-31 neutral court)     KU  -38 UH  neutral (-38 neutral court)

KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
UH   +4 TTU at home (  0 neutral court)     UH   -4 TTU on road (  0 neutral court)
KU   +7 UH  neutral ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +7 UH  neutral ( +7 neutral court)

KU  +18 BU  at home (+14 neutral court)     KU  +18 BU  at home (+14 neutral court)
UH  +22 BU  on road (+26 neutral court)     UH  +13 BU  at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU  -12 UH  neutral (-12 neutral court)     KU   +9 UH  neutral ( +9 neutral court)

KU  -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court)
UH  +29 WVU at home (+25 neutral court)
KU  -32 UH  neutral (-32 neutral court)

KU  -10 ASU on road ( -6 neutral court)
UH  +30 ASU at home (+26 neutral court)
KU  -32 UH  neutral (-32 neutral court)

KU   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral court)     KU   +5 TCU neutral ( +5 neutral court)
UH   +9 TCU on road (+13 neutral court)     UH   +9 TCU on road (+13 neutral court)
KU  -13 UH  neutral (-13 neutral court)     KU   -8 UH  neutral ( -8 neutral court)

KU   -6 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
UH  +24 UCF at home (+20 neutral court)
KU  -22 UH  neutral (-22 neutral court)

KU   +8 BYU at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU   +8 BYU at home ( +4 neutral court)
UH  +11 BYU on orad (+15 neutral court)     UH   +7 BYU neutral ( +7 neutral court)
KU  -11 UH  neutral (-11 neutral court)     KU   -3 UH  neutral ( -3 neutral court)

KU  +12 UU  at home ( +8 neutral court)
UH  +14 UU  on road (+18 neutral court)
KU  -10 UH  neutral (-10 neutral court)

KU  +24 KSU on road (+28 neutral court)     KU  +19 KSU at home (+15 neutral court)
UH  +14 KSU at home (+10 neutral court)     UH  +14 KSU at home (+10 neutral court)
KU  +22 UH  at home (+18 neutral court)     KU   +5 UH  neutral ( +5 neutral court)

KU  -18 ISU on road (-14 neutral court)     KU  +21 ISU at home (+17 neutral court)
UH   -3 ISU on road ( +1 neutral court)     UH   -3 ISU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU  -15 UH  neutral (-15 neutral court)     KU  +16 UH  neutral (+16 neutral court)

KU   +4 UA  at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  -23 UA  on road (-19 neutral court)
UH   -7 UA  at home (-11 neutral court)     UH   -7 UA  at home (-11 neutral court)
KU  +11 UH  neutral (+11 neutral court)     KU   -8 UH  neutral ( -8 neutral court)

KU   +6 CU  on road (+10 neutral court)
UH  +40 CU  at home (+36 neutral court)
KU  -26 UH  neutral (-26 neutral court)

KU  +12 OSU on road (+16 neutral court)
UH   +7 OSU on road (+11 neutral court)
KU   +5 UH  neutral ( +5 neutral court)

KU  +13 UH  at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU   +9 UH  neutral ( +9 neutral court)

Twelve of the comparisons favor Kansas, while fourteen favor Houston, with one being
a wash (both teams beat Notre Dame by 10 points on a neutral court).  That's almost
an even split, but the most favorable comparison for Kansas is the Kansas State road
game (+18 points), while the most favorable comparison for Houston is the Cincinnati
home game (-38 points), with the West Virginia and Arizona State road games not far
behind (both -32 points).  That tilts the average in Houston's favor by an average
of 5.63 points, with a scatter of 16.20 points.  And considering how many comparisons
went into this average, it's a fairly robust result.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Milos Uzan (guard)
most points        Kingston Flemings (guard)
most rebounds      Chris Cenac Jr. (forward)
most assists       Kingston Flemings (guard)
most steals        Kingston Flemings (guard)
most blocks        Joseph Tugler (forward)
most turnovers     Kingston Flemings (guard)
most fouls         Joseph Tugler (forward)

Reserve guard Kordelius Jefferson is out with a knee injury; he average 4 points
and 1.3 points per game.

                                                          23-9          27-5 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Houston
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -5.00   65   70       29       # 17   #  7    #  4   # 30
Pomeroy                 -4.42   67   71       33.8     # 18   #  3    #  6   # 29
Greenfield              -5.50   65   70.5              # 19   #  9    #  5   # 14
Dunkel                  +1.00   76   75                # 20           #  5
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -5.50   65   71                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -4.50   65   69       34.1     # 21   #  7    #  6   # 13
DPPI                    -4.40   68   72       37.2     # 23   #  1    #  5   # 15 
ESPN Bet/BPI            -5.50   64.5 70                # 19   #  3    #  5   # 33
Whitlock                -2.85                          # 18   #  1    #  5   # 22
Colley Matrix           -2.17                          # 14   #  1    #  5   # 26 
Donchess                -5.10   66   71       33.9     # 21   #  1    #  5   # 25
Haslametrics            -4.73   65   70                # 21           #  6
INCCStats               -4.00   66   70       33       # 20           #  6
common opponents        -5.63
trend and mental        -8.15
NCAA NET                                               # 18           #  8
LRMC                                                   # 22   #  3    #  7   # 19
Massey composite                                       # 18           #  5
Pomeroy offense                                        # 53           # 17
Pomeroy defense                                        # 10           #  6
Pomeroy tempo                                          #155           #345
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -4.43   66.6 70.9     33.5 
scatter                  2.02    3.3  1.6      2.6

Here is Kansas' season, with the most likely opponents in later rounds of the
Big XII tournament, should Kansas advance (indicating a 7 percent chance of
winning the championship):

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #210 Green Bay                   94  51   +21.63   +21.37
AWAY   # 30 North Carolina              74  87    -0.39   -12.61
HOME   #173 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +20.36   +10.64
HOME   #251 Princeton                   76  57   +24.07    -5.07
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  78    -9.02    -2.98
NEUT   # 90 Notre Dame                  71  61   +10.89    -0.89
NEUT   # 82 Syracuse                    71  60   +10.59    +0.41
NEUT   # 14 Tennessee                   81  76    -0.58    +5.58
HOME   # 10 Connecticut                 56  61    +1.38    -6.38
NEUT   # 51 Missouri                    80  69    +6.65    +4.35
AWAY   # 34 N.C. State                  77  76    +0.62    +0.38
HOME   #156 Towson                      73  49   +18.96    +5.04
HOME   #110 Davidson                    90  61   +16.03   +12.97
AWAY   # 54 UCF                         75  81    +3.72    -9.72
HOME   # 43 TCU                        104 100    +8.82    -4.82
AWAY   # 60 West Virginia               75  86    +4.11   -15.11
HOME   #  7 Iowa St.                    84  63    -1.01   +22.01
HOME   # 48 Baylor                      80  62    +9.97    +8.03
AWAY   # 69 Colorado                    75  69    +5.65    +0.35
AWAY   # 99 Kansas St.                  86  62    +9.78   +14.22
HOME   # 22 BYU                         90  82    +5.10    +2.90
AWAY   # 20 Texas Tech                  64  61    -3.30    +6.30
HOME   #127 Utah                        71  59   +17.87    -5.87
HOME   #  3 Arizona                     82  78    -4.98    +8.98
AWAY   #  7 Iowa St.                    56  74    -8.01    -9.99
AWAY   # 65 Oklahoma St.                81  69    +5.81    +6.19
HOME   # 44 Cincinnati                  68  84    +8.87   -24.87
HOME   #  6 Houston                     69  56    -0.92   +13.92
AWAY   #  3 Arizona                     61  84   -11.98   -11.02
AWAY   # 67 Arizona St.                 60  70    +5.46   -15.46            CUMU.
HOME   # 99 Kansas St.                 104  85   +16.78    +2.22            PROB.
NEUT   # 43 TCU                         78  73    +5.32    -0.32            -----
NEUT   #  6 Houston                     67  71    -4.42             0.338   0.338   semifinals
NEUT   #  3 Arizona                     72  80    -8.48             0.211   0.071   finals

Here is Houston's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #284 Lehigh                      75  57   +30.18   -12.18
HOME   #156 Towson                      65  48   +22.02    -5.02
HOME   #168 Oakland                     78  45   +24.53    +8.47
NEUT   # 38 Auburn                      73  72    +8.49    -7.49
HOME   #357 Rider                       91  45   +38.33    +7.67
NEUT   # 82 Syracuse                    78  74   +14.30   -10.30
NEUT   # 14 Tennessee                   73  76    +3.68    -6.68
NEUT   # 90 Notre Dame                  66  56   +14.47    -4.47
NEUT   # 57 Florida St.                 82  67   +12.42    +2.58
HOME   #341 Jackson St.                 80  38   +36.82    +5.18
HOME   #193 New Orleans                 99  57   +26.06   +15.94
NEUT   # 16 Arkansas                    94  85    +4.38    +4.62
HOME   #178 Middle Tennessee            69  60   +23.69   -14.69
AWAY   # 44 Cincinnati                  67  60    +5.92    +1.08
HOME   # 20 Texas Tech                  69  65    +7.99    -3.99
AWAY   # 48 Baylor                      77  55    +6.97   +15.03
HOME   # 60 West Virginia               77  48   +14.62   +14.38
HOME   # 67 Arizona St.                103  73   +16.42   +13.58
AWAY   # 20 Texas Tech                  86  90    +0.99    -4.99
AWAY   # 43 TCU                         79  70    +5.89    +3.11
HOME   # 44 Cincinnati                  76  54   +12.92    +9.08
HOME   # 54 UCF                         79  55   +14.79    +9.21
AWAY   # 22 BYU                         77  66    +2.56    +8.44
AWAY   #127 Utah                        66  52   +14.22    -0.22
HOME   # 99 Kansas St.                  78  64   +20.75    -6.75
AWAY   #  7 Iowa St.                    67  70    -3.38    +0.38
HOME   #  3 Arizona                     66  73    +0.11    -7.11
AWAY   # 18 Kansas                      56  69    +0.92   -13.92
HOME   # 69 Colorado                   102  62   +16.56   +23.44
HOME   # 48 Baylor                      77  64   +13.97    -0.97
AWAY   # 65 Oklahoma St.                82  75    +9.96    -2.96
NEUT   # 22 BYU                         73  66    +6.06    +0.94
NEUT   # 18 Kansas                      71  67    +4.42             0.662