predictions for TCU game

TCU is the Big XII's top overachiever, finishing with 3.5 wins more than the
preseason projection.  Positive trend, positive mental toughness values.
Meanwhile, Kansas has a negative trend and a negative mental toughness rating,
though the latter helps against a weaker opponent.  Taken at face value, those
make the Jayhawks a mere 2.9 point favorite.  It's not the most pessimistic
prognostication, however, as Dunkel (the only prognosticator to pick Arizona
State in the penultimate conference regular season game) is picking TCU by 2
points.  Massey is the optimist, picking Kansas by 8 points.  The average is
4.88 points, with a scatter of 2.18 points.

One wild card in the game is the court itself; who can better adapt to the
surface, which reportedly has less traction than the typical wood court?

Another concern, though less so for the Big XII tournament than the NCAA
Tournament, is the bigger stage, the brighter lights of the postseason,
when NBA draft hopefuls want to strut their stuff.  Getting Peterson and
everybody else to play together as a team has been an ongoing process this
season, slowed by the injuries.  Will Peterson abandon team play to showcase
his individual talents?  I hope not, as one very important talent is how an
NBA prospect can help his teammates to play better.  When you're double-teamed,
rather than showing how you can still make a tough shot, how about showing your
ability to find the open player for an easier shot?

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     TCU      KU      Defensive Stats     TCU      KU
Points/Game         77.5    76.5     Opp Points/Game     71.9    69.3
Avg Score Margin    +6.6    +7.2     Opp Effective FG %  51.3    45.1
Assists/Game        15.8    14.7     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.3     8.8
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.1    38.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.0    27.1
Effective FG %      51.1    52.5     Blocks/Game          4.6     5.9
Off Rebound %       32.5    28.0     Steals/Game          7.8     5.5
FTA/FGA            0.390   0.316     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.1    14.5
Turnover %          13.1    13.6   

My Stats Comparison        KU              TCU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.76           +0.63    
inconsistency         10.95           10.88    
trend                 -0.22 ± 0.22    +0.10 ± 0.21
mental toughness      -0.26 ± 0.21    +0.15 ± 0.15         
average total pts     146.06          150.34 
total pts reg         144.41          148.18

Common Opponents
================
There are fifteen common opponents, one non-conference (Notre Dame), and fourteen
in conference, one of which TCU has played twice (Baylor), one of which TCU has
played thrice (Oklahoma State), two of which Kansas has played twice (Arizona,
Iowa State), and one of which both have played twice (Kansas State), plus the
head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us twenty two scores to compare:

KU  +10 ND  neutral (+10 neutral court)
TCU  -2 ND  at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU  +16 TCU neutral (+16 neutral court)

KU  +18 BU  at home (+14 neutral court)     KU  +18 BU  at home (+14 neutral court)
TCU  +6 BU  at home ( +2 neutral court)     TCU  +7 BU  on road (+11 neutral court)
KU  +12 TCU neutral (+12 neutral court)     KU   +3 TCU neutral ( +3 neutral court)

KU   +4 UA  at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  -23 UA  on road (-19 neutral court)
TCU -13 UA  at home ( -9 neutral court)     TCU -13 UA  at home ( -9 neutral court)
KU   +9 TCU neutral ( +9 neutral court)     KU  -10 TCU neutral (-10 neutral court)

KU   +8 BYU at home ( +4 neutral court)
TCU  -6 BYU on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU   +6 TCU neutral ( +6 neutral court)

KU  +12 UU  at home ( +8 neutral court)
TCU  -3 UU  on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU   +7 TCU neutral ( +7 neutral court)

KU  +12 OSU on road (+16 neutral court)     KU  +12 OSU on road (+16 neutral court)
TCU  +3 OSU at home ( -1 neutral court)     TCU  +3 OSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU  +17 TCU neutral (+17 neutral court)     KU   +9 TCU neutral ( +9 neutral court)

KU  +12 OSU on road (+16 neutral court)
TCU  +7 OSU neutral ( +7 neutral court)
KU   +9 TCU neutral ( +9 neutral court)

KU  +13 UH  at home ( +9 neutral court)
TCU  -9 UH  at home (-13 neutral court)
KU  +22 TCU neutral (+22 neutral court)

KU   +6 CU  on road (+10 neutral court)
TCU -26 CU  on road (-22 neutral court)
KU  +32 TCU neutral (+32 neutral court)

KU  +19 KSU at home (+15 neutral court)     KU  +24 KSU on road (+28 neutral court)
TCU  +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)     TCU  +9 KSU on road (+13 neutral court)
KU  +17 TUC neutral (+17 neutral court)     KU  +15 TCU neutral (+15 neutral court)

KU  +21 ISU at home (+17 neutral court)     KU  -18 ISU on road (-14 neutral court)
TCU  +7 ISU at home ( +3 neutral court)     TCU  +7 ISU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU  +14 TCU neutral (+14 neutral court)     KU  -17 TCU neutral (-17 neutral court)

KU   -6 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
TCU -11 UCF on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU   +5 TCU neutral ( +5 neutral court)

KU  -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court)
TCU  +6 WVU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU   -9 TCU neutral ( -9 neutral court)

KU  -10 ASU on road ( -6 neutral court)
TCU +12 ASU at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU  -14 TCU neutral (-14 neutral court)

KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
TCU  +8 TTU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU   -5 TCU neutral ( -5 neutral court)

KU  -16 UC  at home (-20 neutral court)
TCU +10 UC  at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU  -26 TCU neutral (-26 neutral court)

KU   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral court)
KU    0 TCU neutral (  0 neutral court)

Fifteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, while six favor TCU, with the head-to-head
being a wash, though if you used the tie score in regulation, then that comparison
would favor TCU.  On the other hand, Kansas City isn't exactly a neutral court for
a Kansas game against a team from Fort Worth.  The average favors Kansas by 5.09
points, with a scatter of 13.91 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Brock Harding (guard)
most points        David Punch (forward)
most rebounds      Xavier Edmonds (forward)
most assists       Brock Harding (guard)
most steals        Brock Harding (guard)
most blocks        David Punch (forward)
most turnovers     Malick Diallo (center)
most fouls         Xavier Edmonds (forward)

                                                          22-9          22-10
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          TCU
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +8.00   76   68       79       # 18   #  4    # 35   # 50
Pomeroy                 +5.20   75   70       68.9     # 19   #  2    # 42   # 62
Greenfield              +6.50   74.5 68                # 19   #  8    # 44   # 39
Dunkel                  -2.00   66   68                # 24           # 46
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +5.50   74   68                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +5.65   73   68       69.3     # 21   #  7    # 42   # 38
DPPI                    +4.30   74   70       62.4     # 22   #  1    # 44   # 66 
ESPN Bet/BPI            +5.50   73.5 68                # 19   #  3    # 48   # 72
Whitlock                +5.31                          # 18   #  1    # 44   # 55
Colley Matrix           +5.40                          # 14   #  1    # 38   # 66 
Donchess                +5.30   78   72       66.2     # 21   #  1    # 40   # 57
Haslametrics            +5.51   74   68                # 21           # 46
INCCStats               +5.00   73   68       68       # 20           # 43
common opponents        +5.09
trend and mental        +2.89
NCAA NET                                               # 19           # 41
LRMC                                                   # 21   #  3    # 40   # 75
Massey composite                                       # 18           # 37
Pomeroy offense                                        # 54           # 82
Pomeroy defense                                        # 11           # 22
Pomeroy tempo                                          #168           #177
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +4.88   73.7 68.7     69.0 
scatter                  2.18    2.9  1.4      5.5

Here is Kansas' season, with the most likely opponents in later rounds of the
Big XII tournament, should Kansas advance (indicating a 5 percent chance of
winning the championship):

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #211 Green Bay                   94  51   +21.48   +21.52
AWAY   # 31 North Carolina              74  87    -0.62   -12.38
HOME   #172 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +20.22   +10.78
HOME   #251 Princeton                   76  57   +23.88    -4.88
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  78    -9.83    -2.17
NEUT   # 91 Notre Dame                  71  61   +10.77    -0.77
NEUT   # 83 Syracuse                    71  60   +10.47    +0.53
NEUT   # 16 Tennessee                   81  76    -0.45    +5.45
HOME   # 10 Connecticut                 56  61    +1.64    -6.64
NEUT   # 50 Missouri                    80  69    +6.54    +4.46
AWAY   # 34 N.C. State                  77  76    +0.39    +0.61
HOME   #156 Towson                      73  49   +18.74    +5.26
HOME   #109 Davidson                    90  61   +15.80   +13.20
AWAY   # 52 UCF                         75  81    +3.43    -9.43
HOME   # 42 TCU                        104 100    +8.70    -4.70
AWAY   # 61 West Virginia               75  86    +3.94   -14.94
HOME   #  7 Iowa St.                    84  63    -0.33   +21.33
HOME   # 48 Baylor                      80  62    +9.81    +8.19
AWAY   # 69 Colorado                    75  69    +5.54    +0.46
AWAY   # 99 Kansas St.                  86  62    +9.75   +14.25
HOME   # 22 BYU                         90  82    +5.02    +2.98
AWAY   # 15 Texas Tech                  64  61    -3.96    +6.96
HOME   #127 Utah                        71  59   +17.80    -5.80
HOME   #  3 Arizona                     82  78    -4.83    +8.83
AWAY   #  7 Iowa St.                    56  74    -7.33   -10.67
AWAY   # 66 Oklahoma St.                81  69    +5.63    +6.37
HOME   # 43 Cincinnati                  68  84    +8.78   -24.78
HOME   #  6 Houston                     69  56    -0.94   +13.94
AWAY   #  3 Arizona                     61  84   -11.83   -11.17            CUMU.
AWAY   # 67 Arizona St.                 60  70    +5.40   -15.40            PROB.
HOME   # 99 Kansas St.                 104  85   +16.75    +2.25            -----
NEUT   # 42 TCU                         75  70    +5.20             0.689   0.689   quarterfinals
NEUT   #  6 Houston                     67  71    -4.44             0.337   0.232   semifinals
NEUT   #  3 Arizona                     72  80    -8.33             0.216   0.050   finals

Here is TCU's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #191 New Orleans                 74  78   +17.07   -21.07
HOME   #354 Saint Francis              104  63   +31.11    +9.89
HOME   #238 Lamar                       78  65   +18.99    -5.99
HOME   #  2 Michigan                    63  67   -11.91    +7.91
HOME   #358 Kansas City                 81  45   +32.96    +3.04
NEUT   #  4 Florida                     84  80   -12.39   +16.39
NEUT   # 24 Wisconsin                   74  63    -3.48   +14.48
HOME   # 91 Notre Dame                  85  87    +9.17   -11.17
NEUT   #138 North Texas                 65  55    +9.92    +0.08
HOME   #266 Incarnate Word              69  65   +20.32   -16.32
HOME   #310 Oral Roberts                72  53   +23.97    -4.97
HOME   #313 Florida A&M                 80  56   +24.19    -0.19
HOME   #341 Jackson St.                115  64   +28.54   +22.46
HOME   # 48 Baylor                      69  63    +4.57    +1.43
AWAY   # 19 Kansas                     100 104    -8.70    +4.70
HOME   #  3 Arizona                     73  86   -10.22    -2.78
AWAY   # 22 BYU                         70  76    -7.36    +1.36
AWAY   #127 Utah                        79  82    +5.69    -8.69
HOME   # 66 Oklahoma St.                68  65    +7.06    -4.06
AWAY   # 48 Baylor                      97  90    -2.43    +9.43
HOME   #  6 Houston                     70  79    -5.81    -3.19
AWAY   # 69 Colorado                    61  87    +0.23   -26.23
HOME   # 99 Kansas St.                  84  82   +11.12    -9.12
HOME   #  7 Iowa St.                    62  55    -5.46   +12.46
AWAY   # 66 Oklahoma St.                95  92    +0.06    +2.94
AWAY   # 52 UCF                         71  82    -1.92    -9.08
HOME   # 61 West Virginia               60  54    +6.14    -0.14
HOME   # 67 Arizona St.                 90  78    +7.06    +4.94
AWAY   # 99 Kansas St.                  77  68    +4.12    +4.88
AWAY   # 15 Texas Tech                  73  65    -9.06   +17.06
HOME   # 43 Cincinnati                  73  63    +3.57    +6.43
NEUT   # 66 Oklahoma St.                95  88    +3.56    +3.44
NEUT   # 19 Kansas                      70  75    -5.20             0.311