prediction for Kansas State game

Senior night (or day, as the case may be).  Rivalry game.  Many players who don't
deserve to wear the uniform and won't be wearing it next season.  A coach who
definitely won't be wearing the uniform next season.  So many story lines.

Pomeroy has Kansas State with the 8th fastest tempo in all of Division I.  Twice
they've scored into the triple digits, and twice they've allowed triple digits.
Should be a higher scoring game, unless the Jayhawks shoot as poorly as they did
in the first half against Arizona State.  Even the point blank shots weren't falling.

The Wildcats have played a whopping 14 games above or below expectation by double
digits.  And it shows, as the inconsistency value for Kansas State is more than
two points higher than it is for Kansas, who hasn't exactly been a picture of
consistency this season.

Only three times has Kansas State played above expectation by enough to overcome
the predicted margin for today's game (Mississippi State, Mississippie Valley State,
and Baylor).  Only once did Kansas play below expectation by enough to lose today's
game (Cincinnati).  That's an average of 2 out of 30 games for about a 6 percent
chance of the Jayhawks losing, which is even less than the various prognosticators
are expecting.

Everybody is picking Kansas in the game.  Massey is the most pessimistic, giving
the Jayhawks a mere 11 point margin, while Dunkel is the most optimistic, the
margin being 20 points.  Yes, I recall that Dunkel was the only prognosticator
who picked Arizona State to win.  Well, even a broken clock is correct twice a
day.  The average is 16.1 points, with a scatter of 2.7 points.

The Wildcats, of course, have nothing to lose, so we can expect them to play
freely.  The Jayhawks are playing for Senior Night (will Peterson give a Senior
speech?), seeding in the Big XII tournament, and seeding in the Big Dance.
Kansas could still earn a 3 seed behind Arizona and Houston, if Texas Tech loses
in Provo.  Getting that 3 seed might also require a loss by Iowa State; I have
not bothered to check the tie-breaker rules.  A 4 seed and double-bye is perhaps
the more likely outcome, but again, I don't know the tie-breaker rules if Iowa
State wins and Tech wins.  If TCU wins, Kansas loses, and Iowa State loses, there
could be a three-way tie for fourth place, but because Kansas has the tie-breaker
over TCU, a 6 seed seems impossible.

By the way, LRMC is finally on board for this season.  Usually they wait until
very late in the season, but it seemed unusually late this time around.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     KSU      KU      Defensive Stats     KSU      KU
Points/Game         79.0    75.6     Opp Points/Game     80.3    68.8
Avg Score Margin    -1.3    +6.8     Opp Effective FG %  51.5    44.9
Assists/Game        17.1    14.4     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.8     8.7
Total Rebounds/Gm   34.4    38.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.8    27.0
Effective FG %      53.1    52.0     Blocks/Game          3.6     5.9
Off Rebound %       27.5    27.7     Steals/Game          7.0     5.5
FTA/FGA            0.265   0.321     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.2    14.4
Turnover %          15.5    13.6   

My Stats Comparison        KU              KSU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.64           +0.90    
inconsistency         10.99           13.10    
trend                 -0.26 ± 0.23    -0.41 ± 0.27
mental toughness      -0.28 ± 0.22    -0.24 ± 0.19         
average total pts     144.63          159.33 
total pts reg         142,93          159.33

Common Opponents
================
There are fourteen common opponents, all in conference,  two of which Kansas State
has played twice (West Virginia and TCU), and two of which Kansas has played twice
(Iowa State and Arizona), plus the head-to-head in Manhattan. giving us nineteen
scores to compare:

KU   +8 BYU at home ( +4 neutral court)
KSU -10 BYU at home (-14 neutral court)
KU  +22 KSU at home (+18 neutral court)

KU  -23 UA  on road (-19 neutral court)     KU   +4 UA  at home (  0 neutral court)
KSU -25 UA  on road (-21 neutral court)     KSU -25 UA  on road (-21 neutral court)
KU   +6 KSU at home ( +2 neutral court)     KU  +25 KSU at home (+21 neutral court)

KU  -10 ASU on road ( -6 neutral court)
KSU  -3 ASU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU   -3 KSU at home ( -7 neutral court)

KU   -6 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
KSU  -9 UCF at home (-13 neutral court)
KU  +15 KSU at home (+11 neutral court)

KU  +12 OSU on road (+16 neutral court)
KSU  -1 OSU on road ( +3 neutral court)
KU  +17 KSU at home (+13 neutral court)

KU  +12 UU  at home ( +8 neutral court)
KSU  +3 UU  at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU  +13 KSU at home ( +9 neutral court)

KU  -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court)     KU  -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KSU  -5 WVU on road ( -1 neutral court)     KSU  +2 WVU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU   -2 KSU at home ( -6 neutral court)     KU   -1 KSU at home ( -5 neutral court)

KU  +21 ISU at home (+17 neutral court)     KU  -18 ISU on road (-14 neutral court)
KSU -34 ISU at home (-38 neutral court)     KSU -34 ISU at home (-38 neutral court)
KU  +59 KSU at home (+55 neutral court)     KU  +28 KSU at home (+24 neutral court)

KU   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral court)     KU   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral court)
KSU  -2 TCU on road ( +2 neutral court)     KSU  -9 TCU at home (-13 neutral court)
KU   +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU  +17 KSU at home (+13 neutral court)

KU  -16 UC  at home (-20 neutral court)
KSU -29 UC  at home (-33 neutral court)
KU  +17 KSU at home (+13 neutral court)

KU  +13 UH  at home ( +9 neutral court)
KSU -14 UH  on road (-10 neutral court)
KU  +23 KSU at home (+19 neutral court)

KU  +18 BU  at home (+14 neutral court)
KSU +16 BU  at home (+12 neutral court)
KU   +6 KSU at home ( +2 neutral court)

KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KSU -28 TTU on road (-24 neutral court)
KU  +35 KSU at home (+31 neutral court)

KU   +6 CU  on road (+10 neutral court)
KSU  -9 CU  on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU  +19 KSU at home (+15 neutral court)

KU  +24 KSU on road (+28 neutral court)
KU  +32 KSU at home (+28 neutral court)

Sixteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, while three favor Kansas State, namely the
Arizona State and West Virginia comparisons.  The Iowa State home court comparison is
an astounding 59 points.  The two teams have played most of their "just once" common
opponents in same way (home or away).  The average margin is 17.37 points in favor of
Kansas, with a scatter of 15,15 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       P. J. Haggerty (guard)
most points        P. J. Haggerty (guard)
most rebounds      P. J. Haggerty (guard)
most assists       Nate Johnson (guard)
most steals        Nate Johnson (guard)
most blocks        Dorin Buca (center)
most turnovers     P. J. Haggerty (guard)
most fouls         Khamari McGriff (forward)

Guard Abdi Bashir Jr. is out with an unspecified injury; he averages 24 minutes per
game, 13 points per game, 2 rebounds per game, and 2 assists per game.

                                                          21-9          12-18
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Kansas State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                 +11.00   81   70       88       # 18   #  3    # 87   # 44
Pomeroy                +16.60   87   70       94.2     # 20   #  1    #100   # 27
Greenfield             +16.50   86.5 70                # 19   #  8    # 91   # 57
Dunkel                 +20.00   80   60                # 24           #133
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +16.50   86   70                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +14.52   84   69       89.2     # 21   #  6    # 98   # 58
DPPI                   +14.30   83   68       83.5     # 22   #  1    #107   # 36 
ESPN Bet/BPI           +16.50   86.5 70                # 19   #  3    # 86   # 34
Whitlock               +15.90                          # 15   #  1    #102   # 30
Colley Matrix          +19.62                          # 11   #  1    #137   # 23 
Donchess               +11.40   86.5 74       86.7     # 21   #  1    # 82   # 31
Haslametrics           +16.44   84   67                # 24           # 99
INCCStats              +15.00   84   69       91.6     # 20           # 96
common opponents       +17.37
trend and mental       +19.89
NCAA NET                                               # 19           #100
LRMC                                                   # 22   #  2    # 92   # 41
Massey composite                                       # 16           #102
Pomeroy offense                                        # 55           #115
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           # 92
Pomeroy tempo                                          #183           #  8
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +16.10   84.4 68.8     88.9 
scatter                  2.67    2.4  3.4      3.8

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #194 Green Bay                   94  51   +20.98   +22.02
AWAY   # 29 North Carolina              74  87    -0.62   -12.38
HOME   #179 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +21.10    +9.90
HOME   #246 Princeton                   76  57   +23.75    -4.75
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  78    -9.82    -2.18
NEUT   # 87 Notre Dame                  71  61   +10.50    -0.50
NEUT   # 81 Syracuse                    71  60    +9.90    +1.10
NEUT   # 13 Tennessee                   81  76    -0.71    +5.71
HOME   #  9 Connecticut                 56  61    +1.12    -6.12
NEUT   # 50 Missouri                    80  69    +6.55    +4.45
AWAY   # 35 N.C. State                  77  76    +0.26    +0.74
HOME   #174 Towson                      73  49   +19.85    +4.15
HOME   #111 Davidson                    90  61   +16.12   +12.88
AWAY   # 53 UCF                         75  81    +3.63    -9.63
HOME   # 44 TCU                        104 100    +9.20    -5.20
AWAY   # 56 West Virginia               75  86    +3.58   -14.58
HOME   #  8 Iowa St.                    84  63    +0.74   +20.26
HOME   # 49 Baylor                      80  62   +10.14    +7.86
AWAY   # 64 Colorado                    75  69    +5.34    +0.66
AWAY   #100 Kansas St.                  86  62    +9.60   +14.40
HOME   # 24 BYU                         90  82    +5.79    +2.21
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                  64  61    -4.16    +7.16
HOME   #120 Utah                        71  59   +17.39    -5.39
HOME   #  3 Arizona                     82  78    -4.82    +8.82
AWAY   #  8 Iowa St.                    56  74    -6.26   -11.74
AWAY   # 68 Oklahoma St.                81  69    +6.22    +5.78
HOME   # 42 Cincinnati                  68  84    +8.32   -24.32
HOME   #  6 Houston                     69  56    -0.95   +13.95
AWAY   #  3 Arizona                     61  84   -11.82   -11.18
AWAY   # 59 Arizona St.                 60  70    +4.76   -14.76
HOME   #100 Kansas St.                  87  70   +16.60             0.942

Here is Kansas State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #302 UNC Greensboro              93  64   +17.70   +11.30
HOME   #281 Bellarmine                  98  71   +15.09   +11.91
HOME   # 69 California                  99  96    +0.18    +2.82
HOME   # 55 Tulsa                       84  83    -1.99    +2.99
NEUT   # 98 Mississippi St.             98  77    -0.07   +21.07
NEUT   # 12 Nebraska                    85  86   -13.99   +12.99
AWAY   # 41 Indiana                     69  86   -11.44    -5.56
HOME   #149 Bowling Green               66  82    +7.64   -23.64
HOME   # 52 Seton Hall                  67  78    -2.11    -8.89
HOME   #365 Mississippi Valley St.     108  49   +30.59   +28.41
AWAY   # 73 Creighton                   83  76    -6.37   +13.37
HOME   #283 South Dakota               106  76   +16.39   +13.61
HOME   #350 Louisiana Monroe            94  85   +24.51   -15.51
HOME   # 24 BYU                         73  83    -7.65    -2.35
AWAY   #  3 Arizona                     76 101   -26.01    +1.01
AWAY   # 59 Arizona St.                 84  87    -8.04    +5.04
HOME   # 53 UCF                         73  82    -2.31    -6.69
AWAY   # 68 Oklahoma St.                83  84    -7.10    +6.10
HOME   #120 Utah                        81  78    +5.54    -2.54
HOME   # 20 Kansas                      62  86    -9.60   -14.40
AWAY   # 56 West Virginia               54  59    -8.03    +3.03
HOME   #  8 Iowa St.                    61  95   -12.43   -21.57
AWAY   # 44 TCU                         82  84   -10.56    +8.56
HOME   # 42 Cincinnati                  62  91    -4.49   -24.51
AWAY   #  6 Houston                     64  78   -20.70    +6.70
HOME   # 49 Baylor                      90  74    -2.56   +18.56
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                  72 100   -17.16   -10.84
AWAY   # 64 Colorado                    70  79    -7.37    -1.63
HOME   # 44 TCU                         68  77    -3.56    -5.44
HOME   # 56 West Virginia               65  63    -1.03    +3.03
AWAY   # 20 Kansas                      70  87   -16.60             0.058