Big XII projection, Round 18

With regard to the double-bye, it's like a case of "I don't want it; here, you take it."  Texas Tech lost,
Kansas lost, and Iowa State lost.  TCU could match the Jayhawks' record, but Kansas holds that tie-breaker,
so I believe TCU is not involved in the double-bye conversation.  However, TCU does hold the tie-breaker
over Iowa State, so if the Cyclones were to fall to the Sun Devils on Saturday, Kansas could be looking at
a rematch with TCU on Thursday, though a TCU win on Wednesday is by no means a sure thing.

One Round 19 game on Friday. the other seven are on Saturday.  The fractional part of the projected wins
total is the probability of victory in the final game of the conference season.

                      Init   Rd B   Rd C   Rd D   Rd E   Rd F   Rd G   Rd H   Rd I   
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  -----------------
#  3  Arizona        14.903 16.171 15.530 14.554 14.656 15.361 15.472 15.697 15.910  15  2  Sat @CU  88 74 rw
#  6  Houston        12.402 14.978 15.168 15.178 14.796 14.239 13.665 13.760 13.837  13  4  Sat @OSU 83 73 rw
# 13  Texas Tech     10.530 11.937 12.149 13.100 12.288 12.365 12.562 13.343 12.479  12  5  Sat @BYU 83 83
# 20  Kansas         11.159 12.640 13.332 12.996 13.264 12.262 12.854 12.660 11.941  11  6  Sat  KSU 87 70
#  9  Iowa State     14.726 13.688 12.672 13.087 13.486 12.810 12.932 12.148 11.913  11  6  Sat  ASU 83 69
# 45  TCU             7.460  7.547  8.518  9.135  8.694  8.984  9.321  9.729 10.598  10  7  Sat  UC  71 68
# 48  UCF             8.560  9.893  9.892  9.066  9.539  9.931 10.875 10.194  9.423   9  8  Fri @WVU 71 73
# 42  Cincinnati      6.568  6.945  7.605  7.696  7.733  8.718  8.572  8.882  9.402   9  8  Sat @TCU 68 71
# 60  West Virginia   6.956  9.217  9.253 10.074  9.109  8.802  8.393  9.091  8.577   8  9  Fri  UCF 73 71
# 24  BYU            12.702  9.714 10.189 10.206 10.122 10.707  9.773  9.046  8.521   8  9  Sat  TTU 83 83
# 65  Colorado        6.138  6.189  6.056  6.030  5.989  6.423  6.698  6.615  7.090   7 10  Sat  UA  74 88 hl
# 59  Arizona State   6.341  5.468  5.892  5.886  6.700  6.459  6.100  6.361  7.087   7 10  Sat @ISU 69 83
# 68  Oklahoma State  6.461  7.226  6.620  6.024  5.762  5.294  5.687  5.394  6.163   6 11  Sat  UH  73 83 hl
# 50  Baylor          9.398  6.384  5.958  5.934  5.154  5.423  5.264  5.928  5.852   5 12  Sat  UU  85 74
#100  Kansas State    6.219  3.354  2.632  2.609  3.365  3.250  2.970  2.523  3.059   3 14  Sat @KU  70 87
#120  Utah            3.479  2.648  2.534  2.427  3.345  2.971  2.862  2.629  2.148   2 15  Sat @BU  74 85

A road game in Tempe cost Kansas 0.22 in strength of schedule, but the Jayhawks retained the top spot.
#2 Alabama plays at home against #40 Auburn, while Kansas plays at home against #100 Kansas State.  Will
that be enough for Alabama to overrcome the 0.15 difference between #1 and #2?  Only West Virginia has
not made it into double digits.  A home game with UCF probably won't do it.  The Mountaineers would have
to make a deep run in the conference tournament to crack into double-digits.

Rank  Big XII Team   Sched.
----  -------------- ------
#  1  Kansas         +17.21
#  7  Baylor         +14.80
#  8  Texas Tech     +14.76
# 13  BYU            +14.02
# 15  Arizona        +13.92
# 19  Arizona State  +13.35
# 27  Kansas State   +12.24
# 29  Houston        +12.01
# 32  Utah           +11.71
# 37  Iowa State     +11.48
# 38  Oklahoma State +11.40
# 43  Cincinnati     +11.03
# 49  UCF            +10.70
# 60  TCU            +10.44
# 62  Colorado       +10.42
# 72  West Virginia   +8.89

Only three road wins of the four projected happened.  Yeah, Kansas couldn't pull off the feat in
Tempe.  But neither could West Virginia win in Manhattan, or BYU win in Cincinnati.  Only the
Colorado win in Salt Lake City actually materialized.  But TCU managed to win in Lubbock, and
Oklahoma State managed to win in Orlando.  We have only two road wins projected for Round 19.

Road wins (48 out of 136)                     Home losses                                     RW-HL
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------- -------
7 Arizona      UU  TCU UCF BYU ASU UH  BU     1 Arizona      TTU                             +6 UA 
5 Houston      UC  BU  TCU BYU UU             1 Houston      UA                              +4 UH 
5 Texas Tech   CU  BU  WVU UA  ISU            1 Iowa St.     TTU                             +4 TTU
4 UCF          KSU CU   UU BYU                1 Kansas       UC                              +3 ISU
4 Iowa St.     BU  OSU KSU UU                 1 Texas Tech   KU                              +3 KU
4 Kansas       CU  KSU TTU OSU                2 Cincinnati   UH  WVU                         +1 TCU
3 Baylor       OSU WVU UCF                    2 TCU          UA  UH                           0 UCF
3 TCU          BU  OSU KSU                    3 Arizona St.  CU  WVU UA                       0 UC 
3 W. Virginia  ASU UC  UCF                    3 BYU          UA  UH  UCF                      0 WVU
2 BYU          KSU UU                         3 Colorado     TTU KU  UCF                     -1 BYU
2 Cincinnati   KSU KU                         3 W. Virginia  BU  TTU UU                      -1 CU
2 Colorado     ASU UU                         4 UCF          UA  WVU BU  OSU                 -2 ASU
2 Oklahoma St. UU  UCF                        4 Oklahoma St. BU  ISU TCU KU                  -2 BU
1 Arizona St.  UU                             5 Baylor       ISU UH  TTU TCU UA              -2 OSU
1 Utah         WVU                            6 Kansas St.   BYU UCF KU  ISU UC  TCU         -6 KSU
0 Kansas St.                                  8 Utah         UA  BYU OSU ASU UH  UCF ISU CU  -7 UU