predictions for Arizona State game

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asteroid
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21 hours 24 minutes ago #34743 by asteroid

Last season, the two-game swing through a western state didn't work out all that
well for Kansas.  First, it was a 7 point loss in Salt Lake City, followed by a
34 point loss in Provo.  The Jayhawks want to avoid a repeat of that, having
started off with a 23 point loss in Tucson and are following that with a game in
Tempe.

Kansas has been cold, hot, and then cold again these last three games (as well as
four of the last five games), playing double digits away from expectation.  Do
that again and it could be either a big win or another embarrassment.

Kansas is generally favored in the game, though Dunkel is picking Arizona State
by 1 point.  Dolphin is the optimist, with a 7.5 point margin of victory for the
Jayhawks.  The average is 5.46 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 1.93
points.

Kansas needs the win to earn the double-bye in the conference tournament.  Some
may think that it doesn't matter, as the five seed would be going up against the
four seed anyway, so it's looking like a Kansas versus Iowa State matchup in the
quarterfinals.  However, the five seed will have to play a game the day before,
so rest enters into the equation, not to mention less time to prepare for the
game, though that may not matter much, given that Kansas and Iowa State have
already played each other twice.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     ASU      KU      Defensive Stats     ASU      KU
Points/Game         77.9    76.1     Opp Points/Game     78.2    68.7
Avg Score Margin    -0.3    +7.4     Opp Effective FG %  53.1    45.0
Assists/Game        14.1    14.4     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.3     8.2
Total Rebounds/Gm   33.1    38.1     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.1    26.9
Effective FG %      51.5    52.7     Blocks/Game          4.7     6.0
Off Rebound %       27.3    26.7     Steals/Game          7.0     5.3
FTA/FGA            0.392   0.325     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.2    14.3
Turnover %          13.8    13.4   

My Stats Comparison        KU              ASU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.70           -0.44    
inconsistency         10.86            9.45    
trend                 -0.18 ± 0.24    +0.08 ± 0.21
mental toughness      -0.27 ± 0.22    +0.09 ± 0.17         
average total pts     145.14          156.14 
total pts reg         143,38          156.14

Common Opponents
================
There are thirteen common opponents, all in conference (Arizona State has yet to
play Iowa State), two of which Arizona State has played twice (Colorado and Utah),
and one of which both have played twice (Arizona). giving us sixteen scores to
compare:

KU   +6 CU  on road (+10 neutral court)     KU   +6 CU  on road (+10 neutral court)
ASU  -6 CU  at home (-10 neutral court)     ASU  -8 CU  on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU  +16 ASU on road (+20 neutral court)     KU  +10 ASU on road (+14 neutral court)

KU   +8 BYU at home ( +4 neutral court)
ASU -28 BYU on road (-24 neutral court)
KU  +24 ASU on road (+28 neutral court)

KU  +24 KSU on road (+28 neutral court)
ASU  +3 KSU at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU  +25 ASU on road (+29 neutral court)

KU  -23 UA  on road (-19 neutral court)     KU   +4 UA  at home (  0 neutral court)
ASU  -7 UA  on road ( -3 neutral court)     ASU -13 UA  at home (-17 neutral court)
KU  -20 ASU on road (-16 neutral court)     KU  +13 ASU on road (+17 neutral court) 

KU  +13 UH  at home ( +9 neutral court)
ASU -30 UH  on road (-26 neutral court)
KU  +31 ASU on road (+35 neutral court)

KU  -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court)
ASU -12 WVU at home (-16 neutral court)
KU   +5 ASU on road ( +9 neutral court)

KU  -16 UC  at home (-20 neutral court)
ASU +14 UC  at home (+10 neutral court)
KU  -36 ASU on road (-30 neutral court)

KU   -6 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
ASU  -3 UCF on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU   -7 ASU on road ( -3 neutral court)

KU  +12 UU  at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU  +12 UU  at home ( +8 neutral court)
ASU  +8 UU  on road (+12 neutral court)     ASU +13 UU  at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU   -8 ASU on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU   -5 ASU on road ( -1 neutral court)

KU  +12 OSU on road (+16 neutral court)
ASU  +9 OSU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU   +7 ASU on road (+11 neutral court)

KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
ASU  +5 TTU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU   +2 ASU on road ( +6 neutral court)

KU  +18 BU  at home (+14 neutral court)
ASU  -5 BU  on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU  +11 ASU on road (+15 neutral court)

KU   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral court)
ASU -12 TCU on road ( -8 neutral court)
KU   +4 ASU on road ( +8 neutral court)

Eleven of the comparisons favor Kansas, while five favor Arizona State.  The average
is 4.50 points, with a scatter of 17.15 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Moe Odum (guard)
most points        Moe Odum (guard)
most rebounds      Mor Massamba Diop (center)
most assists       Moe Odum (guard)
most steals        Noah Meeusen (guard)
most blocks        Mor Massamba Diop (center)
most turnovers     Moe Odum (guard)
most fouls         Allen David Mukeba Jr. (forward)

Guard Adante' Holiman is out with an elbow injury.
Guard Quentin McCoy is out with an unspecified injury.
Forward Kash Polk is out with an unspecified injury.
Forward Marcus Adams Jr. is out with a lower leg injury.
Forward Jovan Icitovic is out with a lower body injury.
Guard Vijay Wallace is out with an ankle injury.
Only Adams has contributed much, averaging a bit less than 12 minutes per game
and less than 4 points per game.

                                                          21-8          15-14
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Arizona St
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +6.00   77   71       72       # 15   #  3    # 57   # 18
Pomeroy                 +5.88   79   73       71.1     # 16   #  1    # 66   # 21
Greenfield              +5.50   78.5 73                # 19   #  7    # 72   # 47
Dunkel                  -1.00   77   78                # 22           # 95
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +5.50   79   73                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +7.53   78   71       74.2     # 16   #  6    # 63   # 43
DPPI                    +6.00   77   71       68.0     # 17   #  1    # 86   # 14 
ESPN Bet/BPI            +5.50   78.5 73                # 19   #  3    # 87   # 21
Whitlock                +5.53                          # 15   #  1    # 68   # 16
Colley Matrix           +6.84                          # 11   #  1    # 73   # 14 
Donchess                +6.70   81   74       71.8     # 20   #  1    # 65   # 14
Haslametrics            +6.21   77   71                # 20           # 69
INCCStats               +6.00   78   72       71.1     # 18           # 63
common opponents        +4.50
trend and mental        +5.18
NCAA NET                                               # 15           # 73
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 15           # 64
Pomeroy offense                                        # 51           # 60
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           # 90
Pomeroy tempo                                          #190           #104
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +5.46   78.2 72.7     71.4 
scatter                  1.93    1.2  2.1      2.0

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #196 Green Bay                   94  51   +21.39   +21.61
AWAY   # 28 North Carolina              74  87    -0.18   -12.82
HOME   #182 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +21.50    +9.50
HOME   #250 Princeton                   76  57   +24.11    -5.11
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  78    -9.34    -2.66
NEUT   # 84 Notre Dame                  71  61   +10.59    -0.59
NEUT   # 77 Syracuse                    71  60   +10.36    +0.64
NEUT   # 18 Tennessee                   81  76    +0.19    +4.81
HOME   # 10 Connecticut                 56  61    +1.59    -6.59
NEUT   # 47 Missouri                    80  69    +6.43    +4.57
AWAY   # 33 N.C. State                  77  76    +0.62    +0.38
HOME   #176 Towson                      73  49   +20.57    +3.43
HOME   #106 Davidson                    90  61   +16.08   +12.92
AWAY   # 48 UCF                         75  81    +3.27    -9.27
HOME   # 49 TCU                        104 100   +10.62    -6.62
AWAY   # 59 West Virginia               75  86    +4.36   -15.36
HOME   #  9 Iowa St.                    84  63    +1.28   +19.72
HOME   # 51 Baylor                      80  62   +10.74    +7.26
AWAY   # 72 Colorado                    75  69    +6.49    -0.49
AWAY   #102 Kansas St.                  86  62   +10.27   +13.73
HOME   # 23 BYU                         90  82    +5.56    +2.44
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  64  61    -4.35    +7.35
HOME   #116 Utah                        71  59   +17.41    -5.41
HOME   #  3 Arizona                     82  78    -4.26    +8.26
AWAY   #  9 Iowa St.                    56  74    -5.72   -12.28
AWAY   # 74 Oklahoma St.                81  69    +7.25    +4.75
HOME   # 44 Cincinnati                  68  84    +9.53   -25.53
HOME   #  6 Houston                     69  56    -0.40   +13.40
AWAY   #  3 Arizona                     61  84   -11.26   -11.74
AWAY   # 66 Arizona St.                 79  73    +5.88             0.711
HOME   #102 Kansas St.                  88  70   +17.27             0.949

Here is Arizona State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #256 Southern Utah               81  64   +17.39    -0.39
HOME   #185 Utah Tech                   81  66   +12.85    +2.15
HOME   # 12 Gonzaga                     65  77    -7.53    -4.47
HOME   #301 Georgia St.                 75  62   +20.30    -7.30
AWAY   #108 Hawaii                      83  76    +1.25    +5.75
NEUT   # 29 Texas                       87  86    -5.73    +6.73
NEUT   #135 Washington St.             100  94    +6.47    -0.47
NEUT   # 67 USC                         75  88    +0.00   -13.00
NEUT   # 50 Oklahoma                    86  70    -2.07   +18.07
HOME   #320 Northern Arizona            73  48   +20.65    +4.35
NEUT   # 37 Santa Clara                 82  79    -4.93    +7.93
AWAY   # 41 UCLA                        77  90    -7.54    -5.46
HOME   #183 Oregon St.                  75  78   +12.53   -15.53
HOME   # 72 Colorado                    89  95    +4.12   -10.12
AWAY   # 23 BYU                         76 104   -11.16   -16.84
HOME   #102 Kansas St.                  87  84    +7.50    -4.50
AWAY   #  3 Arizona                     82  89   -21.24   +14.24
AWAY   #  6 Houston                     73 103   -16.35   -13.65
HOME   # 59 West Virginia               63  75    +2.87   -14.87
HOME   # 44 Cincinnati                  82  68    +0.24   +13.76
AWAY   # 48 UCF                         76  79    -6.21    +3.21
HOME   #  3 Arizona                     74  87   -14.24    +1.24
AWAY   #116 Utah                        71  63    +1.50    +6.50
AWAY   # 72 Colorado                    70  78    -2.88    -5.12
HOME   # 74 Oklahoma St.                85  76    +4.44    +4.56
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  72  67    -6.68   +11.68
AWAY   # 51 Baylor                      68  73    -5.54    +0.54
AWAY   # 49 TCU                         78  90    -5.68    -6.32
HOME   #116 Utah                        73  60    +8.50    +4.50
HOME   # 16 Kansas                      73  79    -5.88             0.289
AWAY   #  9 Iowa St.                    69  84   -15.07             0.077

The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1

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HawkErrant
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b82, g84 Lift the chorus...

15 hours 27 minutes ago - 15 hours 17 minutes ago #34747 by HawkErrant

Some additions to your commentary, asteroid.

IMO these Jayhawks are Nighthawks.

asteroid wrote: ... Kansas has been cold, hot, and then cold again these last three games (as well as
four of the last five games), playing double digits away from expectation. Do
that again and it could be either a big win or another embarrassment. ...

Kansas needs the win to earn the double-bye in the conference tournament. Some
may think that it doesn't matter, as the five seed would be going up against the
four seed anyway, so it's looking like a Kansas versus Iowa State matchup in the
quarterfinals. However, the five seed will have to play a game the day before,
so rest enters into the equation, not to mention less time to prepare for the
game, though that may not matter much, given that Kansas and Iowa State have
already played each other twice...

I will tie DAY-NIGHT-DAY to your cold-hot-cold pattern.
LAST FIVE KU GAMES

Feb 14 Sat     Iowa St          Ames            12:00 PM(A)     L 56-74   matched season low in points scored
Feb 18 Wed     Oklahoma St      Stillwater       8:00 PM(P)     W 81-69   DP plays H1, not H2. 
Feb 21 Sat     Cincinnati       AFH             12:00 PM(C)     L 68-84   Fourth day game Big 12 loss
Feb 23 Mon     Houston          AFH              8:00 PM        W 69-56   41-0 Self & KU in AFH on Big Monday!
Feb 28 Sat     Arizona          Tucson           3:00 PM        L 61-84   another daytime road game

L Road Day game
W Road Night game
L Home Day game
W Home Night game
L Road Day game

KU is 2-5 (2-1 H, 0-4 R) in daytime conference games this season. (W BYU, UU; L @UCF, @WVU, @ISU, UC, @UA)
KU is 9-0 (5-0 H, 4-0 R) in B12 play in nighttime conference games this season (includes Ws v UA, UH, ISU and @TT).

And this night (HOT?) road game at ASU comes after the COLD daytime road loss to UA.

Furthermore, KANSAS is 139-24 (85.3%) following a loss in the Bill Self era (2003-04 to present), including 7-0 so far this season.

PLUSSES favoring the injury riddled ASU (7 OUT, 1 ? for this game)
• A home game, their Senior Game and likely last chance at a regular season win as @ISU is their last game of the season,
• This is very likely the final home game for ASU head coach Bobby Hurley (2-1 v KU). (link)

I think KU is going to win tonight. Likely a fight given all the circumstances, but I think our Nighthawks overcome those factors to win it's 5th road game of the season.

RE: The Double Bye for the B12T Top 4 seeds, I would add the following to your arguments for @ASU (and also v KSU) being a "must win"..

Winning out, combined with ISU losing last night, ensures at least the 4 seed with the plusses you note for that.

But winning out ALSO KEEPS OPEN the chance to get the 3 seed should Texas Tech fall to either TCU in Lubbock tonight or BYU in Provo on Saturday.

The advantages of the 3 seed over the 4 -

3 seed: KU is in the lower bracket (all night games) with UH; can't play UA, ISU or TT before the title game.

4 seed: KU in the upper bracket with UA and ISU.
Quarterfinal game is 11:30 AM day game, most likely against ISU.
Should our Nighthawks prevail in that day game, they almost certainly will play UA in the semifinal, which will at least be a night game and NOT in Tucson.

SO not only should would be rooting for KU wins tonight and Saturday, but also
for TCU to win tonight - and if necessary,
BYU to win on Saturday -
against Texas Tech.

ROCK CHALK!

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"

Last Edit: 15 hours 17 minutes ago by HawkErrant.

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asteroid
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10 hours 54 minutes ago #34748 by asteroid

While mathematically possible, a 2 seed appears extremely unlikely, as Houston has a 91.1 percent chance of beating Baylor and an 85.0 percent chance of beating Oklahoma State. It was a brutal three-game stretch against the Big XII's "group of five", but they played 23 points above expectation against Colorado in their previous game.

A 3 seed is somewhat more likely, as Tech has an 86.2 percent chance of beating TCU, but only a 48.1 percent chance of beating BYU, which is predicted to be a one-point affair. But that prediction is based on the entire body of work, whereas the two teams are headed in opposite directions. Tech's projected conference wins are 3 ABOVE the preseason projection, while BYU's projected wins are 4 BELOW the preseason projection. Both are dealing with key players lost to torn ACLs, but Tech seemed to have weathered that better than BYU.

As a 3 seed, Kansas would likely be facing either UCF (a revenge game for Kansas) or TCU (a revenge game for TCU). I haven't looked at the tie-breaker rules for them.

Right now, the Big XII could get 10 teams into the Big Dance, those with non-losing conference records. Two of those bubble teams are playing each other today (BYU and Cincy) in a projected one-point affair. Another bubble team (West Virginia) has their own one-point affair today in the Octogon of Doom.

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USAF Jayhawk
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4 hours 11 minutes ago #34750 by USAF Jayhawk

TT unexpectedly lost tonight keeping them one game ahead of ISU and KU. KU holds the tiebreaker with TT so if we beat KSU and TT loses to BYU (it could happen!) then KU slides into the 3/4 seed. ISU plays in Hilton against ASU...I expect ISU to hold serve in that game but it's been a funny year. ASU could use tonights win to spur them on...or be mentally exhausted

KU/ISU tiebreaker standing: The way I read the rules are (1) head to head [split] then compare results against highest seeded teams. (2) would be Houston (both teams won their single matchup), (3) would be TT. We won, ISU lost. That tells me that if both teams win Saturday, KU has the tiebreaker against ISU. So...if we beat KSU on Senior day AND Tech falls to BYU, KU squeaks into the 4th seed line.

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