Big XII projection, Round 17

At the moment, it's Kansas and Iowa State that are vying for the fourth double-bye.  Given that, it's
probably best for Arizona to beat the Cyclones on Big Monday.

One Round 18 game on Big Monday, six on Super Tuesday, and one on Wednesday.

                      Init   Rd A   Rd B   Rd C   Rd D   Rd E   Rd F   Rd G   Rd H   
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  -----------------
#  3  Arizona        14.903 16.015 16.171 15.530 14.554 14.656 15.361 15.472 15.697  14  2  Mon  ISU 81 72
#  6  Houston        12.402 14.404 14.978 15.168 15.178 14.796 14.239 13.665 13.760  12  4  Wed  BU  81 67
# 13  Texas Tech     10.530 11.526 11.937 12.149 13.100 12.288 12.365 12.562 13.343  12  4  Tue  TCU 81 69
# 16  Kansas         11.159 12.721 12.640 13.332 12.996 13.264 12.262 12.854 12.660  11  5  Tue @ASU 79 73 rw
#  8  Iowa State     14.726 13.755 13.688 12.672 13.087 13.486 12.810 12.932 12.148  11  5  Mon @UA  72 81
# 48  UCF             8.560 10.597  9.893  9.892  9.066  9.539  9.931 10.875 10.194   9  7  Tue  OSU 92 85
# 49  TCU             7.460  7.322  7.547  8.518  9.135  8.694  8.984  9.321  9.729   9  7  Tue @TTU 69 81
# 60  West Virginia   6.956  9.508  9.217  9.253 10.074  9.109  8.802  8.393  9.091   8  8  Tue @KSU 73 72 rw
# 23  BYU            12.702 10.338  9.714 10.189 10.206 10.122 10.707  9.773  9.046   8  8  Tue @UC  78 77 rw
# 44  Cincinnati      6.568  6.227  6.945  7.605  7.696  7.733  8.718  8.572  8.882   8  8  Tue  BYU 77 78 hl
# 72  Colorado        6.138  5.767  6.189  6.056  6.030  5.989  6.423  6.698  6.615   6 10  Tue @UU  80 79 rw
# 66  Arizona State   6.341  5.845  5.468  5.892  5.886  6.700  6.459  6.100  6.361   6 10  Tue  KU  73 79 hl
# 51  Baylor          9.398  6.289  6.384  5.958  5.934  5.154  5.423  5.264  5.928   5 11  Wed @UH  67 81
# 74  Oklahoma State  6.461  7.383  7.226  6.620  6.024  5.762  5.294  5.687  5.394   5 11  Tue @UCF 85 92
#116  Utah            3.479  2.654  2.648  2.534  2.427  3.345  2.971  2.862  2.629   2 14  Tue  CU  79 80 hl
#102  Kansas State    6.219  3.649  3.354  2.632  2.609  3.365  3.250  2.970  2.523   2 14  Tue  WVU 72 73 hl

As expected, Kansas took over the #1 spot in strength of schedule by playing in Tucson.  The question is
whether the Jayhawks will be able to hang onto it.  With another road game in Tempe for Round 18, my
expectation is that it should last at least another round.  The problem is that the final game of the
season is a home game for Kansas against a bottom-of-the-conference opponent, while Auburn is playing
on the road against a ranked Alabama team.

Rank  Big XII Team   Sched.
----  -------------- ------
#  1  Kansas         +17.43
#  6  Texas Tech     +15.04
# 13  Baylor         +14.17
# 15  BYU            +13.72
# 16  Arizona        +13.65
# 19  Arizona State  +13.13
# 27  Kansas State   +12.49
# 30  Houston        +12.26
# 32  Utah           +12.04
# 40  Oklahoma State +11.06
# 43  UCF            +10.96
# 44  Cincinnati     +10.93
# 50  Iowa State     +10.75
# 58  Colorado       +10.59
# 67  TCU             +9.74
# 73  West Virginia   +8.76

Another three road wins in Round 17, but only two were projected.  Texas Tech handing Iowa State
its first home loss was not expected, and Baylor winning in Orlando was also not expected.
Meanwhile, BYU failed to earn its expected road win in Morgantown.  Four road wins are projected
for Round 18.

Road wins (46 out of 128)                     Home losses                                     RW-HL
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------- -------
7 Arizona      UU  TCU UCF BYU ASU UH  BU     1 Arizona      TTU                             +6 UA 
5 Houston      UC  BU  TCU BYU UU             1 Houston      UA                              +4 UH 
5 Texas Tech   CU  BU  WVU UA  ISU            1 Iowa St.     TTU                             +4 TTU
4 UCF          KSU CU   UU BYU                1 Kansas       UC                              +3 ISU
4 Iowa St.     BU  OSU KSU UU                 1 Texas Tech   KU                              +3 KU
4 Kansas       CU  KSU TTU OSU                2 Cincinnati   UH  WVU                         +1 UCF
3 Baylor       OSU WVU UCF                    2 TCU          UA  UH                          +1 TCU
3 TCU          BU  OSU KSU                    3 Arizona St.  CU  WVU UA                       0 UC 
3 W. Virginia  ASU UC  UCF                    3 BYU          UA  UH  UCF                      0 WVU
2 BYU          KSU UU                         3 UCF          UA  WVU BU                      -1 BYU
2 Cincinnati   KSU KU                         3 Colorado     TTU KU  UCF                     -2 ASU
1 Arizona St.  UU                             3 W. Virginia  BU  TTU UU                      -2 BU
1 Colorado     ASU                            4 Oklahoma St. BU  ISU TCU  KU                 -2 CU
1 Oklahoma St. UU                             5 Baylor       ISU UH  TTU TCU UA              -3 OSU
1 Utah         WVU                            6 Kansas St.   BYU UCF KU  ISU UC  TCU         -6 KSU
0 Kansas St.                                  7 Utah         UA  BYU OSU ASU UH  UCF ISU     -6 UU