predictions for Arizona game

Toughest game of the season.  Kansas needs to overcome a 10 point deficit.
For the game against Duke, Kansas was a 7.5 point underdog.  For the game
in Ames, Kansas was "only" a 6.5 point underdog.  Both of those were losses.
The biggest deficit that turned out to be a win was 3.3 points in Lubbock,
but that performance was only 6.3 points above expectation, which is not
enough to win today's game.  Still, the odds of winning are not zero.  Twice
the Jayhawks played more than 20 points above expectation (Green Bay in the
season opener, and against Iowa State in Allen Field House).  In three other
games, Kansas played between 10 and 20 points above expectation (Davidson,
Kansas State, and Houston, the most recent game).  That's five times out of
28 that Kansas played well enough to overcome the margin in today's game,
an 18 percent chance of winning.  On the other hand, Arizona has played only
two games below expectation by enough to lose today (Arizona State and Texas
Tech, both at home, but only one of them turned into a loss), for just a 7
percent chance of losing.  Those two odds average to a 12.5 percent chance
of Kansas winning.

None of the prognosticators are picking Kansas to win.  The most optimistic
is Massey, who is expecting just a 7 point loss.  The most pessimistic is
the common opponent comparison, predicting a loss by more than 13 points.
Dunkel isn't far behind with a 13 point loss being expected.  The average
makes Kansas a 9.8 point underdog, with a scatter of 1.7 points.

Even the head-to-head in Lawrence, a game that Kansas won, doesn't expect
the Jayhawks to duplicate the feat, as a swap of venue usually results in
a swing of 7 to 8 points, making Arizona a 3 or 4 point favorite.

The wild cards are Peterson and Peat.  Peterson didn't play at all in the
stunning win by Kansas in Allen Field House.  Peat may not play in today's
game.  That could swing things by enough to give Kansas a glimmer of hope.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UA      KU      Defensive Stats      UA      KU
Points/Game         87.2    76.6     Opp Points/Game     68.9    68.2
Avg Score Margin   +18.3    +8.5     Opp Effective FG %  45.1    44.9
Assists/Game        17.4    14.6     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.9     8.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   43.2    38.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     28.3    27.3
Effective FG %      55.1    53.3     Blocks/Game          4.3     6.0
Off Rebound %       38.6    27.2     Steals/Game          8.1     5.3
FTA/FGA            0.419   0.331     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.3    14.1
Turnover %          12.7    13.5   

Arizona leads in every offensive category.  Kansas leads in four of the
seven defensive categories.

My Stats Comparison        KU              UA
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.61           +1.17    
inconsistency         10.83            7.86    
trend                 -0.08 ± 0.26    -0.12 ± 0.19
mental toughness      -0.18 ± 0.23    +0.07 ± 0.13         
average total pts     145.14          156.07 
total pts reg         143.32          155.32

Kansas has played two overtime games, while Arizona has played one,
hence the extra line at the bottom of the table above.

Common Opponents
================
There are twelve common opponents, one non-conference (Connecticut) and eleven
conference (Arizona has yet to play either Iowa State or Colorado, while Kansas
has yet to play Arizona State), one of which Arizona has played twice (BYU), plus
the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us fourteen scores to compare:

KU   -5 Con at home ( -9 neutral court)
UA   +4 Con on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU  -21 UA  on road (-17 neutral court)

KU  +12 UU  at home ( +8 neutral court)
UA  +19 UU  on road (+23 neutral court)
KU  -19 UA  on road (-15 neutral court)

KU  +24 KSU on road (+28 neutral court)
UA  +25 KSU at home (+21 neutral court)
KU   +3 UA  on road ( +7 neutral court)

KU   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral court)
UA  +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)
KU  -21 UA  on road (-17 neutral court)

KU   -6 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
UA   +7 UCF on road (+11 neutral court)
KU  -17 UA  on road (-13 neutral court)

KU  -16 UC  at home (-20 neutral court)
UA  +26 UC  at home (+22 neutral court)
KU  -46 UA  on road (-42 neutral court)

KU  -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court)
UA  +35 WVU at home (+31 neutral court)
KU  -42 UA  at home (-38 neutral court)

KU   +8 BYU at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU   +8 BYU at home ( +4 neutral court)
UA   +3 BYU on road ( +7 neutral court)     UA   +7 BYU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU   +1 UA  at home ( -3 neutral court)     KU   -3 UA  on road ( +1 neutral court)

KU  +12 OSU on road (+16 neutral court)
UA  +37 OSU at home (+33 neutral court)
KU  -21 UA  on road (-17 neutral court)

KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
UA   -3 TTU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU  +10 UA  on road (+14 neutral court)

KU  +13 UH  at home ( +9 neutral court)
UA   +7 UH  on road (+11 neutral court)
KU   -6 UA  on road ( -2 neutral court)

KU  +18 BU  at home (+14 neutral court)
UA   +7 BU  on road (+11 neutral court)
KU   -1 UA  on road ( +3 neutral court)

KU   +4 UA  at home (  0 neutral court)
KU   -4 UA  on road (  0 neutral court)

Eleven of the comparisons favor Arizona, by usually massive amounts.  Only three
favor Kansas, two by paltry amounts.  The average favors Arizona by 13.4 points,
with a scatter of 16.5 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Jaden Bradley (guard)
most points        Brayden Burries (guard)
most rebounds      Tobe Awaka (forward)
most assists       Jaden Bradley (guard)
most steals        Jaden Bradley (guard)
most blocks        Motiejus Krivas (center)
most turnovers     Koa Peat (forward)
most fouls         Tobe Awaka (forward)

Forward Koa Peat has been dealing with a leg injury and is questionable for
Saturday's game.

                                                          21-7           26-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Arizona
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -7.00   72   79       24       # 14   #  3    #  2   # 11
Pomeroy                -10.02   72   82       17.2     # 15   #  2    #  3   # 17
Greenfield              -9.50   69   78.5              # 18   #  8    #  3   #  4
Dunkel                 -13.00   70   83                # 20           #  4
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -9.50   70   80                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -8.23   70   78       23.8     # 17   #  6    #  3   #  4
DPPI                    -8.80   71   79.5     23.9     # 15   #  1    #  3   # 11 
ESPN Bet/BPI            -9.50   70.5 80                # 16   #  3    #  3   # 34
Whitlock               -10.27                          # 16   #  3    #  2   # 13
Colley Matrix           -8.20                          #  9   #  1    #  2   # 11 
Donchess                -9.90   73   83       17.9     # 21   #  1    #  3   # 15
Haslametrics            -9.87   68   78                # 20           #  4
INCCStats               -9.00   71   80       20.6     # 18           #  3
common opponents       -13.36
trend and mental       -11.11
NCAA NET                                               # 14           #  3
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 16           #  3
Pomeroy offense                                        # 44           #  8
Pomeroy defense                                        # 10           #  3
Pomeroy tempo                                          #195           # 41
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -9.82   70.6 80.1     21.2 
scatter                  1.68    1.4  1.8      3.1

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #212 Green Bay                   94  51   +22.53   +20.47
AWAY   # 28 North Carolina              74  87    +0.17   -13.17
HOME   #189 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +22.44    +8.56
HOME   #259 Princeton                   76  57   +25.35    -6.35
NEUT   #  2 Duke                        66  78    -7.53    -4.47
NEUT   # 89 Notre Dame                  71  61   +11.64    -1.64
NEUT   # 76 Syracuse                    71  60   +10.74    +0.26
NEUT   # 20 Tennessee                   81  76    +0.52    +4.48
HOME   #  9 Connecticut                 56  61    +1.64    -6.64
NEUT   # 51 Missouri                    80  69    +7.86    +3.14
AWAY   # 27 N.C. State                  77  76    +0.13    +0.87
HOME   #178 Towson                      73  49   +21.26    +2.74
HOME   #105 Davidson                    90  61   +16.48   +12.52
AWAY   # 46 UCF                         75  81    +3.56    -9.56
HOME   # 50 TCU                        104 100   +11.35    -7.35
AWAY   # 65 West Virginia               75  86    +5.37   -16.37
HOME   #  7 Iowa St.                    84  63    +0.47   +20.53
HOME   # 49 Baylor                      80  62   +11.30    +6.70
AWAY   # 71 Colorado                    75  69    +6.62    -0.62
AWAY   # 99 Kansas St.                  86  62   +10.61   +13.39
HOME   # 21 BYU                         90  82    +5.51    +2.49
AWAY   # 16 Texas Tech                  64  61    -3.30    +6.30
HOME   #110 Utah                        71  59   +17.62    -5.62
HOME   #  3 Arizona                     82  78    -3.02    +7.02
AWAY   #  7 Iowa St.                    56  74    -6.53   -11.47
AWAY   # 72 Oklahoma St.                81  69    +7.18    +4.82
HOME   # 47 Cincinnati                  68  84   +10.59   -26.59
HOME   #  6 Houston                     69  56    +0.38   +12.61
AWAY   #  3 Arizona                     72  82   -10.02             0.172
AWAY   # 69 Arizona St.                 81  74    +6.69             0.736
HOME   # 99 Kansas St.                  89  71   +17.61             0.952

Here is Arizona's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Florida                     93  87    +1.82    +4.18
HOME   #176 Utah Tech                   93  67   +28.94    -2.94
HOME   #306 Northern Arizona            84  49   +36.17    -1.17
AWAY   # 40 UCLA                        69  65    +8.13    -4.13
AWAY   #  9 Connecticut                 71  67    +0.87    +3.13
HOME   #224 Denver                     103  73   +32.49    -2.49
HOME   #311 Norfolk St.                 98  61   +38.34    -1.34
HOME   # 37 Auburn                      97  68   +15.23   +13.77
AWAY   # 19 Alabama                     96  75    +4.23   +16.77
HOME   #233 Abilene Christian           96  62   +32.68    +1.32
HOME   # 42 San Diego St.               68  45   +16.53    +6.47
HOME   #234 Bethune Cookman            107  71   +33.56    +2.44
HOME   #211 South Dakota St.            99  71   +31.18    -3.18
AWAY   #110 Utah                        97  78   +17.75    +1.25
HOME   # 99 Kansas St.                 101  76   +25.21    -0.21
AWAY   # 50 TCU                         86  73   +11.29    +1.71
HOME   # 69 Arizona St.                 89  82   +20.85   -13.85
AWAY   # 46 UCF                         84  77   +10.59    -3.59
HOME   # 47 Cincinnati                  77  51   +17.48    +8.52
HOME   # 65 West Virginia               88  53   +18.87   +16.13
AWAY   # 21 BYU                         86  83    +5.39    -2.39
AWAY   # 69 Arizona St.                 87  74   +13.85    -0.85
HOME   # 72 Oklahoma St.                84  47   +21.60   +15.40
AWAY   # 15 Kansas                      78  82    +3.02    -7.02
HOME   # 16 Texas Tech                  75  78   +10.19   -13.19
HOME   # 21 BYU                         75  68   +12.39    -5.39
AWAY   #  6 Houston                     73  66    -0.63    +7.63
AWAY   # 49 Baylor                      87  80   +11.24    -4.24
HOME   # 15 Kansas                      82  72   +10.02             0.828
HOME   #  7 Iowa St.                    80  74    +6.81             0.740
AWAY   # 71 Colorado                    89  75   +13.73             0.903