Big XII projection, Round 16

Five teams vying for four double-bye slots.  Two of them are guaranteed to pick up losses this weekend
because they're playing each other, which means two are also guaranteed to pick up wins.  Houston has
a relatively easy task playing at home against Colorado.  A Kansas win in Tucson would put the Jayhawks
in a strong position to get one of those top four seeds in the conference tournament.

All eight Round 17 games are on Saturday.

                      Init   Rd 9   Rd A   Rd B   Rd C   Rd D   Rd E   Rd F   Rd G   
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  -----------------
#  3  Arizona        14.903 16.048 16.015 16.171 15.530 14.554 14.656 15.361 15.472  13  2  Sat  KU  81 71
#  6  Houston        12.402 14.168 14.404 14.978 15.168 15.178 14.796 14.239 13.665  11  4  Sat  CU  81 65
#  8  Iowa State     14.726 13.762 13.755 13.688 12.672 13.087 13.486 12.810 12.932  11  4  Sat  TTU 79 72
# 15  Kansas         11.159 12.095 12.721 12.640 13.332 12.996 13.264 12.262 12.854  11  4  Sat @UA  71 81
# 16  Texas Tech     10.530 12.153 11.526 11.937 12.149 13.100 12.288 12.365 12.562  11  4  Sat @ISU 72 79
# 46  UCF             8.560 10.893 10.597  9.893  9.892  9.066  9.539  9.931 10.875   9  6  Sat  BU  87 82
# 21  BYU            12.702 11.215 10.338  9.714 10.189 10.206 10.122 10.707  9.773   8  7  Sat @WVU 74 71 rw
# 50  TCU             7.460  7.299  7.322  7.547  8.518  9.135  8.694  8.984  9.321   8  7  Sat @KSU 81 79 rw
# 47  Cincinnati      6.568  6.947  6.227  6.945  7.605  7.696  7.733  8.718  8.572   7  8  Sat  OSU 82 75
# 64  West Virginia   6.956  8.654  9.508  9.217  9.253 10.074  9.109  8.802  8.393   7  8  Sat  BYU 71 74 hl
# 70  Colorado        6.138  6.133  5.767  6.189  6.056  6.030  5.989  6.423  6.698   6  9  Sat @UH  65 81
# 68  Arizona State   6.341  5.297  5.845  5.468  5.892  5.886  6.700  6.459  6.100   5 10  Sat  UU  84 76
# 72  Oklahoma State  6.461  6.550  7.383  7.226  6.620  6.024  5.762  5.294  5.687   5 10  Sat @UC  75 82
# 49  Baylor          9.398  5.865  6.289  6.384  5.958  5.934  5.154  5.423  5.264   4 11  Sat @UCF 82 87
# 99  Kansas State    6.219  3.659  3.649  3.354  2.632  2.609  3.365  3.250  2.970   2 13  Sat  TCU 79 81 hl
#112  Utah            3.479  3.263  2.654  2.648  2.534  2.427  3.345  2.971  2.862   2 13  Sat @ASU 76 84

Kansas gained 0.72 by playing Houston at home.  That was enough to overtake Alabama and move into 2nd
place in strength of schedule.  Houston gained 0.99 by playing Kansas on the road.  Kansas should gain
a similar amount by playing Arizona in Tucson.  It may be enough to overtake Auburn for 1st place, at
least temporarily, but Auburn will be playing at #19 Alabama to close out the season with home games
against #84 Mississippi and #52 LSU, while Kansas finishes with #68 Arizona State on the road and #99
Kansas State at home.  Will the road game in Tempe offset the two weaker opponents to stay ahead of
Auburn?  Meanwhile, Alabama plays at #20 Tennessee, at #35 Georgia, and finishes at home against #37
Auburn.  Can Kansas also stay ahead of Alabama?  A deep run in the Big XII tournament could cement #1
in strength of schedule, as the top of the Big XII is stronger than the top of the SEC.

Rank  Big XII Team   Sched.
----  -------------- ------
#  2  Kansas         +16.36
#  6  Texas Tech     +14.21
# 11  Baylor         +13.70
# 13  Arizona State  +13.50
# 15  BYU            +13.29
# 17  Arizona        +13.11
# 22  Kansas State   +12.47
# 24  Houston        +12.27
# 34  Utah           +11.65
# 39  Cincinnati     +10.87
# 42  UCF            +10.74
# 53  Oklahoma State +10.30
# 55  Iowa State     +10.21
# 64  TCU             +9.41
# 65  Colorado        +9.38
# 73  West Virginia   +7.89

Another three road wins in Round 16, the number projected, but not the expected ones.  UCF earned
an unexpected road win over BYU, and Houston failed to earn an expected road win over Kansas.  Just
two road wins projected for Round 17.  We're still three road wins ahead of the expected one-in-three
average, with 24 games left to play.

Road wins (43 out of 120)                     Home losses                                     RW-HL
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------- -------
7 Arizona      UU  TCU UCF BYU ASU UH  BU     0 Iowa St.                                     +6 UA 
5 Houston      UC  BU  TCU BYU UU             1 Arizona      TTU                             +4 UH 
4 UCF          KSU CU   UU BYU                1 Houston      UA                              +4 ISU
4 Iowa St.     BU  OSU KSU UU                 1 Kansas       UC                              +3 KU
4 Kansas       CU  KSU TTU OSU                1 Texas Tech   KU                              +3 TTU
4 Texas Tech   CU  BU  WVU UA                 2 UCF          UA  WVU                         +2 UCF
3 W. Virginia  ASU UC  UCF                    2 Cincinnati   UH  WVU                          0 UC 
2 Baylor       OSU WVU                        2 TCU          UA  UH                           0 TCU
2 BYU          KSU UU                         3 Arizona St.  CU  WVU UA                       0 WVU
2 Cincinnati   KSU KU                         3 BYU          UA  UH  UCF                     -1 BYU
2 TCU          BU  OSU                        3 Colorado     TTU KU  UCF                     -2 ASU
1 Arizona St.  UU                             3 W. Virginia  BU  TTU UU                      -2 CU
1 Colorado     ASU                            4 Oklahoma St. BU  ISU TCU  KU                 -3 BU
1 Oklahoma St. UU                             5 Baylor       ISU UH  TTU TCU UA              -3 OSU
1 Utah         WVU                            5 Kansas St.   BYU UCF KU  ISU UC              -5 KSU
0 Kansas St.                                  7 Utah         UA  BYU OSU ASU UH  UCF ISU     -6 UU