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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Houston game
- asteroid
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1 month 4 weeks ago #34655
by asteroid
With Houston coming to town for Big Monday, was Saturday's game against
Cincinnati a trap game? The second half sure felt like it. Fortunately,
Iowa State also lost, so we're still in the thick of things for the
double-bye. The unbeaten streak on Big Monday is also at risk.
Houston is favored by double digits in its final three games, so today's
game is the last realistic opportunity to hand Houston a fourth conference
loss. Kansas needs to win out to avoid having more than 4 conference losses.
The one statistic that jumped out at while preparing this preview is that
Houston is Pomeroy's #354 team in tempo. Boy, do they milk the shot clock.
Their games average around 70 points per team, despite Houston topping the
90 point level four times, but they've held opponents to less than 50 on
five occasions. The Cougars have a stingier defense than Cincinnati, and
we saw how that went on Saturday.
The various prognostications are remarkably similar, the most pessimistic
being the trend and mental toughness, which favors Houston by almost 4 points,
and the most optimistic being Colley, whose ratings suggest that the home
court advantage is enough to overcome the higher rating for Houston, favoring
Kansas by 2 points. Ditto for Whitlock, which has Kansas by a bit more than
a point. Dunkel is also picking Kansas. The rest are picking Houston, the
average of all 15 being 1.4 points in favor of the Cougars.
Kansas has played four games "better than they are" and four games "worse
than they are", with two of those occurring in the last three games. A
typical season has five of each. But the Jayhawks do not need one of those
"better than you are" games to win. It's winnable with just one possession
more than expected.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats UH KU Defensive Stats UH KU
Points/Game 77.4 76.9 Opp Points/Game 62.0 68.6
Avg Score Margin +15.4 +8.3 Opp Effective FG % 46.5 45.3
Assists/Game 15.1 14.8 Off Rebounds/Gm 11.1 8.4
Total Rebounds/Gm 37.0 38.5 Def Rebounds/Gm 21.9 27.3
Effective FG % 52.1 53.3 Blocks/Game 3.9 6.0
Off Rebound % 35.2 27.2 Steals/Game 7.8 5.4
FTA/FGA 0.266 0.329 Personal Fouls/Gm 18.5 14.3
Turnover % 10.6 13.4
My Stats Comparison KU UH
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.85 +1.18
inconsistency 10.83 8.85
trend -0.19 ± 0.27 +0.23 ± 0.22
mental toughness -0.23 ± 0.24 -0.07 ± 0.16
average total pts 145.89 139.44
Common Opponents
================
There are fifteen common opponents, four non-conference (Towson, and three from
the Players Era Festival, namely Syracuse, Tennessee, and Notre Dame) and eleven
conference, two of which Houston has played twice (Cincinnati and Texas Tech) and
one of which Kansas has played twice (Iowa State), giving us eighteen scores to
compare:
KU +24 Tow at home (+20 neutral court)
UH +17 Tow at home (+13 neutral court)
KU +11 UH at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU +11 Syr neutral (+11 neutral court)
UH +4 Syr neutral ( +4 neutral court)
KU +11 UH at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU +5 Ten neutral ( +5 neutral court)
UH -3 Ten neutral ( -3 neutral court)
KU +12 UH at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU +10 ND neutral (+10 neutral court)
UH +10 ND neutral (+10 neutral court)
KU +4 UH at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU -16 Cin at home (-20 neutral court) KU -16 Cin at home (-20 neutral court)
UH +7 Cin on road (+11 neutral court) UH +22 Cin at home (+18 neutral court)
KU -27 UH at home (-31 neutral court) KU -34 UH at home (-38 neutral court)
KU +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court) KU +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
UH +4 TTU at home ( 0 neutral court) UH -4 TTU on road ( 0 neutral court)
KU +11 UH at home ( +7 neutral court) KU +11 UH at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU +18 BU at home (+14 neutral court)
UH +22 BU on road (+26 neutral court)
KU -8 UH at home (-12 neutral court)
KU -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court)
UH +29 WVU at home (+25 neutral court)
KU -28 UH at home (-32 neutral court)
KU +4 TCU at home ( 0 neutral court)
UH +9 TCU on road (+13 neutral court)
KU -9 UH at home (-13 neutral court)
KU -6 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
UH +24 UCF at home (+20 neutral court)
KU -18 UH at home (-22 neutral court)
KU +8 BYU at home ( +4 neutral court)
UH +11 BYU on orad (+15 neutral court)
KU -7 UH at home (-11 neutral court)
KU +12 UU at home ( +8 neutral court)
UH +14 UU on road (+18 neutral court)
KU -6 UH at home (-10 neutral court)
KU +24 KSU on road (+28 neutral court)
UH +14 KSU at home (+10 neutral court)
KU +22 UH at home (+18 neutral court)
KU -18 ISU on road (-14 neutral court) KU +21 ISU at home (+17 neutral court)
UH -3 ISU on road ( +1 neutral court) UH -3 ISU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU -11 UH at home (-15 neutral court) KU +20 UH at home (+16 neutral court)
KU +4 UA at home ( 0 neutral court)
UH -7 UA at home (-11 neutral court)
KU +15 UH at home (+11 neutral court)
Nine of the comparisons favor Kansas, while nine favor Houston. Curiously, the
non-conference comparisons all favor Kansas, while Houston dominates the conference
comparisons. That is perhaps the opposite of what one might expect, given how Kansas
was still trying to figure out how to play with and without Peterson during the
non-conference portion of the schedule. The average is 1.72 points in favor of
Houston, with a scatter of 17.22 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Milos Uzan (guard)
most points Kingston Flemings (guard)
most rebounds Chris Cenac Jr. (forward)
most assists Kingston Flemings (guard)
most steals Kingston Flemings (guard)
most blocks Joseph Tugler (forward)
most turnovers Kingston Flemings (guard)
most fouls Joseph Tugler (forward)
Guard Kordelius Jefferson is out with a knee injury; he had been averaging
4 minutes and a bit more than 1 point per game.
20-7 23-4
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Houston
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey -3.00 66 69 42 # 17 # 5 # 5 # 26
Pomeroy -0.82 69 70 46.9 # 19 # 3 # 6 # 32
Greenfield -2.50 68 70.5 # 20 # 10 # 7 # 14
Dunkel +1.00 74 73 47.4 # 23 # 5
Vegas (via Dunkel) -2.50 68 70
Dolphin Predictive -1.65 66 68 44.0 # 20 # 8 # 6 # 12
DPPI -0.40 69 69.5 48.8 # 19 # 1 # 4 # 13
ESPN Bet/BPI -2.50 68 70.5 # 19 # 3 # 4 # 33
Whitlock +1.34 # 13 # 2 # 7 # 49
Colley Matrix +2.09 # 13 # 2 # 6 # 27
Donchess -3.50 69 72 39.8 # 22 # 3 # 4 # 24
Haslametrics -1.97 67 69 # 25 # 7
INCCStats -1.00 68 69 44.4 # 21 # 6
common opponents -1.72
trend and mental -3.82
NCAA NET # 18 # 8
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 12 # 4
Pomeroy offense # 43 # 10
Pomeroy defense # 14 # 7
Pomeroy tempo #198 #354
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average -1.40 68.4 70.1 44.8
scatter 1.77 2.2 1.4 3.2
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 22-9:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #213 Green Bay 94 51 +21.82 +21.18
AWAY # 30 North Carolina 74 87 -0.37 -12.63
HOME #191 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 77 46 +21.68 +9.32
HOME #259 Princeton 76 57 +24.52 -5.52
NEUT # 2 Duke 66 78 -7.36 -4.64
NEUT # 87 Notre Dame 71 61 +10.38 -0.38
NEUT # 78 Syracuse 71 60 +10.06 +0.94
NEUT # 14 Tennessee 81 76 -0.58 +5.58
HOME # 11 Connecticut 56 61 +1.90 -6.90
NEUT # 52 Missouri 80 69 +7.40 +3.60
AWAY # 25 N.C. State 77 76 -1.26 +2.26
HOME #179 Towson 73 49 +20.24 +3.76
HOME #112 Davidson 90 61 +16.17 +12.83
AWAY # 49 UCF 75 81 +3.73 -9.73
HOME # 50 TCU 104 100 +10.86 -6.86
AWAY # 59 West Virginia 75 86 +4.57 -15.57
HOME # 8 Iowa St. 84 63 -0.03 +21.03
HOME # 48 Baylor 80 62 +10.59 +7.41
AWAY # 69 Colorado 75 69 +5.89 +0.11
AWAY # 97 Kansas St. 86 62 +9.67 +14.33
HOME # 21 BYU 90 82 +3.84 +4.16
AWAY # 16 Texas Tech 64 61 -3.96 +6.96
HOME #109 Utah 71 59 +16.71 -4.71
HOME # 3 Arizona 82 78 -3.82 +7.82
AWAY # 8 Iowa St. 56 74 -7.03 -10.97
AWAY # 73 Oklahoma St. 81 69 +6.70 +5.30
HOME # 46 Cincinnati 68 84 +9.76 -25.76
HOME # 6 Houston 69 70 -0.82 0.469
AWAY # 3 Arizona 71 82 -10.82 0.153
AWAY # 63 Arizona St. 80 74 +5.63 0.703
HOME # 97 Kansas St. 89 72 +16.67 0.942
Here is Houston's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #303 Lehigh 75 57 +31.38 -13.38
HOME #179 Towson 65 48 +23.25 -6.25
HOME #158 Oakland 78 45 +24.24 +8.76
NEUT # 34 Auburn 73 72 +7.71 -6.71
HOME #357 Rider 91 45 +37.58 +8.42
NEUT # 78 Syracuse 78 74 +13.81 -9.81
NEUT # 14 Tennessee 73 76 +3.66 -6.66
NEUT # 87 Notre Dame 66 56 +13.92 -3.92
NEUT # 71 Florida St. 82 67 +13.82 +1.18
HOME #337 Jackson St. 80 38 +36.37 +5.63
HOME #188 New Orleans 99 57 +25.85 +16.15
NEUT # 17 Arkansas 94 85 +4.30 +4.70
HOME #178 Middle Tennessee 69 60 +23.69 -14.69
AWAY # 46 Cincinnati 67 60 +6.75 +0.25
HOME # 16 Texas Tech 69 65 +7.39 -3.39
AWAY # 48 Baylor 77 55 +7.55 +14.45
HOME # 59 West Virginia 77 48 +15.01 +13.99
HOME # 63 Arizona St. 103 73 +16.52 +13.48
AWAY # 16 Texas Tech 86 90 +0.39 -4.39
AWAY # 50 TCU 79 70 +7.76 +1.24
HOME # 46 Cincinnati 76 54 +13.75 +8.25
HOME # 49 UCF 79 55 +14.74 +9.26
AWAY # 21 BYU 77 66 +1.33 +9.67
AWAY #109 Utah 66 52 +13.17 +0.83
HOME # 97 Kansas St. 78 64 +20.58 -6.58
AWAY # 8 Iowa St. 67 70 -2.52 -0.48
HOME # 3 Arizona 66 73 +1.16 -8.16
AWAY # 19 Kansas 70 69 +0.82 0.531
HOME # 69 Colorado 83 66 +16.73 0.943
HOME # 48 Baylor 82 67 +14.55 0.916
AWAY # 73 Oklahoma St. 83 72 +10.77 0.846
The following user(s) said Thank You: konza63, HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, newtonhawk, jaythawk1
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