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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Cincinnati game
- asteroid
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22 hours 54 minutes ago #34635
by asteroid
Two top defenses battling it out on Saturday. Kansas has Pomeroy's #9
ranked defense, while Cincinnati has Pomeroy's #11 ranked defense. Don't
expect a high scoring game. Kansas does have a considerably better offense
and has the home court advantage, so everybody is picking Kansas to win the
game. The most pessimistic margin is just 6 points, based on the common
opponent comparison, while Dunkel is the optimist with a 17 point margin.
The average is 11.1 points, with a scatter of 2.6 points.
Cincinnati has already played six "better than you are" games and four
"worse than you are" games. They should expect one more of the latter,
but it's less likely they'd have any more of the former. They're most
likely to play "who you are" games.
It's an early tip, so I'm going to wrap this up and get some sleep before
the game.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats Cinc KU Defensive Stats Cinc KU
Points/Game 72.3 77.3 Opp Points/Game 67.0 68.0
Avg Score Margin +5.3 +9.2 Opp Effective FG % 47.7 44.8
Assists/Game 16.5 14.9 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.5 8.3
Total Rebounds/Gm 37.2 38.9 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.7 27.6
Effective FG % 49.8 53.6 Blocks/Game 4.3 6.2
Off Rebound % 28.9 27.3 Steals/Game 6.5 5.4
FTA/FGA 0.307 0.334 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.2 14.3
Turnover % 15.1 13.4
My Stats Comparison KU Cinc
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.73 +0.71
inconsistency 9.73 11.62
trend +0.04 ± 0.26 +0.30 ± 0.30
mental toughness -0.26 ± 0.21 -0.07 ± 0.20
average total pts 145.65 139.23
Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all conference, in the regular season, but one
additional common opponent if you count exhibition games, namely Louisville.
Cincinnati has played West Virginia and Central Florida twice, while Kansas has
played Iowa State twice, giving us twelve scores to compare:
KU +8 Lou on road (+12 neutral court) * exhibition *
Cin -10 Lou neutral (-10 neutral court)
KU +26 Cin at home (+22 neutral court)
KU -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court) KU -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court)
Cin -2 WVU on road ( +2 neutral court) Cin -5 WVU at home ( -9 neutral court)
KU -5 Cin at home ( -9 neutral court) KU +6 Cin at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU -6 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court) KU -6 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
Cin -1 UCF on road ( +3 neutral court) Cin +20 UCF at home (+16 neutral court)
KU -1 Cin at home ( -5 neutral court) KU -13 Cin at home (-18 neutral court)
KU +6 CU on road (+10 neutral court)
Cin +9 CU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU +9 Cin at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU +21 ISU at home (+17 neutral court) KU -18 ISU on road (-14 neutral court)
Cin +9 ISU at home ( +5 neutral court) Cin +9 ISU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU +16 Cin at home (+12 neutral court) KU -14 Cin at home (-19 neutral court)
KU +4 UA at home ( 0 neutral court)
Cin -26 UA on road (-22 neutral court)
KU +27 Cin at home (+22 neutral court)
KU +18 BU at home (+14 neutral court)
Cin +10 BU at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU +13 Cin at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU +24 KSU on road (+28 neutral court)
Cin +29 KSU on road (+33 neutral court)
KU -1 Cin at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU +12 UU at home ( +8 neutral court)
Cin +4 UU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU +12 Cin at home ( +8 neutral court)
Seven of the comparisons favor Kansas, while five favor Cincinnati. The average
is 6.25 points in favor of the Jayhawks, with a scatter of 13.53 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Baba Miller (forward)
most points Baba Miller (forward)
most rebounds Baba Miller (forward)
most assists Day Day Thomas (guard)
most steals Sencire Harris (guard)
most blocks Jizzle James (guard)
most turnovers Baba Miller (forward)
most fouls Day Day Thomas (guard)
Forward Jalen Haynes is out for the season with a knee injury. Guard Shon Abaev is
out with an ankle injury; he averages about 18 minutes and 8 points per game. Guard
Kerr Kriisa is questionable for the game; he averages almost 21 mintues and 6 points
per game.
20-6 14-12
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Cincinnati
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey +9.00 74 65 85 # 12 # 3 # 56 # 54
Pomeroy +12.01 75 63 87.2 # 14 # 3 # 50 # 65
Greenfield +10.00 74 64 # 16 # 8 # 46 # 50
Dunkel +17.00 81 64 78.7 # 17 # 75
Vegas (via Dunkel) +10.50 74 64
Dolphin Predictive +10.16 73 62 82.1 # 13 # 6 # 46 # 46
DPPI +10.50 74 64 78.1 # 14 # 1 # 48 # 51
ESPN Bet/BPI +10.50 74.5 64 # 15 # 3 # 46 # 62
Whitlock +11.53 # 13 # 2 # 54 # 41
Colley Matrix +15.44 # 9 # 1 # 76 # 42
Donchess +9.20 75 66 80.4 # 17 # 2 # 47 # 49
Haslametrics +12.42 75 63 # 16 # 56
INCCStats +10.00 73 63 83.5 # 15 # 47
common opponents +6.25
trend and mental +12.44
NCAA NET # 13 # 63
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 12 # 55
Pomeroy offense # 42 #172
Pomeroy defense # 9 # 11
Pomeroy tempo #197 #159
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +11.13 74.8 63.8 82.1
scatter 2.59 2.2 1.1 3.3
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #212 Green Bay 94 51 +22.78 +20.22
AWAY # 33 North Carolina 74 87 +1.18 -14.18
HOME #189 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 77 46 +22.85 +8.15
HOME #260 Princeton 76 57 +25.59 -6.59
NEUT # 2 Duke 66 78 -5.90 -6.10
NEUT # 87 Notre Dame 71 61 +11.30 -1.30
NEUT # 73 Syracuse 71 60 +10.87 +0.13
NEUT # 16 Tennessee 81 76 +0.78 +4.22
HOME # 13 Connecticut 56 61 +3.44 -8.44
NEUT # 52 Missouri 80 69 +8.57 +2.43
AWAY # 26 N.C. State 77 76 -0.29 +1.29
HOME #170 Towson 73 49 +21.08 +2.92
HOME #107 Davidson 90 61 +17.08 +11.92
AWAY # 48 UCF 75 81 +4.97 -10.97
HOME # 51 TCU 104 100 +12.06 -8.06
AWAY # 60 West Virginia 75 86 +5.68 -16.68
HOME # 7 Iowa St. 84 63 +0.40 +20.60
HOME # 47 Baylor 80 62 +11.75 +6.25
AWAY # 74 Colorado 75 69 +7.52 -1.52
AWAY # 96 Kansas St. 86 62 +10.49 +13.51
HOME # 22 BYU 90 82 +5.57 +2.43
AWAY # 18 Texas Tech 64 61 -2.64 +5.64
HOME #112 Utah 71 59 +18.06 -6.06
HOME # 3 Arizona 82 78 -2.01 +6.01
AWAY # 7 Iowa St. 56 74 -6.60 -11.40
AWAY # 65 Oklahoma St. 81 69 +7.48 +4.52
HOME # 50 Cincinnati 75 63 +12.01 0.872
HOME # 5 Houston 69 69 -0.11 0.496
AWAY # 3 Arizona 72 81 -9.01 0.197
AWAY # 63 Arizona St. 81 74 +6.95 0.744
HOME # 96 Kansas St. 89 71 +17.49 0.951
Here is Cincinnati's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #258 Western Carolina 94 63 +18.94 +12.06
HOME #291 Georgia St. 74 64 +20.85 -10.85
HOME # 89 Dayton 74 62 +7.24 +4.76
HOME #296 Mount St. Mary's 72 55 +21.36 -4.36
NEUT # 15 Louisville 64 74 -8.47 -1.53
HOME #317 NJIT 94 67 +22.99 +4.01
HOME #227 Eastern Michigan 56 64 +16.83 -24.83
HOME #211 Tarleton St. 76 58 +16.31 +1.69
AWAY # 92 Xavier 74 79 +1.22 -6.22
NEUT # 40 Georgia 65 84 -3.03 -15.97
HOME #302 Alabama St. 88 51 +22.47 +14.53
NEUT # 35 Clemson 65 68 -3.21 +0.21
HOME #173 Lipscomb 89 62 +14.49 +12.51
HOME # 5 Houston 60 67 -8.15 +1.15
AWAY # 60 West Virginia 60 62 -2.13 +0.13
AWAY # 48 UCF 72 73 -3.71 +2.71
HOME # 74 Colorado 77 68 +5.96 +3.04
HOME # 7 Iowa St. 79 70 -8.11 +17.11
AWAY # 3 Arizona 51 77 -18.02 -7.98
AWAY # 63 Arizona St. 68 82 -1.70 -12.30
HOME # 47 Baylor 67 57 +3.16 +6.84
AWAY # 5 Houston 54 76 -15.15 -6.85
HOME # 60 West Virginia 54 59 +4.87 -9.87
HOME # 48 UCF 92 72 +3.29 +16.71
AWAY # 96 Kansas St. 91 62 +1.48 +27.52
HOME #112 Utah 69 65 +9.73 -5.73
AWAY # 14 Kansas 63 75 -12.01 0.128
AWAY # 18 Texas Tech 66 78 -11.15 0.146
HOME # 65 Oklahoma St. 81 75 +5.45 0.697
HOME # 22 BYU 75 79 -3.27 0.379
AWAY # 51 TCU 68 71 -3.43 0.373
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi, newtonhawk, jaythawk1
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