predictions for Oklahoma State game

A Wednesday game?  Seriously?  Actually, back in the days before the proliferation
of channels devoted to sports, high schools played games on Tuesdays and Fridays,
while colleges played games on Wednesdays and Saturdays.  Now that the sports
channels need content, college games have been spread out over the entire week.
Wednesday games have mostly gone by the wayside for Kansas, and this is the last
of only two Wednesday games for Kansas this season, the first one being against
Tennessee in the Players Era Festival, which was played on consecutive days.

So, the TCU game was a trap game for Iowa State, which probably explains their loss,
and as I've mentioned, a wounded animal is the most dangerous, especially in Hilton.
It certainly didn't help that White was playing after having a root canal.  That's
the sort of thing that can sap your energy.  Similarly for Peterson, who was still
recovering from flu-like symptoms.  Having two starters at less than full strength
against a wounded animal in Hilton led to the result we witnessed.  I don't see the
loss an ominous sign at all, and it's good to get some of these things out of the
way before the tournaments.  Peterson should have immunity from the flu for a while
now, assuming it was the flu to begin with, and White shouldn't need another root
canal for a while.  Of course, there could always be something else, like cramps,
hamstring, rolled ankle -- I could on and on, as has Peterson.

Given how White and Peterson weren't at full strength, it's perhaps best for Kansas
that this week's weekday game is on Wednesday, giving both players an extra day or
two to recover from their recent medical issues.  Plus, we now know that fourth
place is up for grabs after Texas Tech relaxed against Arizona State following their
big win in Tucson, only to lose in Tempe.

Oklahoma State may be in the lower half of the Big 12, but they did beat BYU in
Gallagher-Iba, playing 12 points above expectation in the process.  However, the
only time they've played better came against Texas A&M, when they played 26 points
above expectation.  They've also played three games "worse than they are", so they
have almost used up their quota of "who you are" games, and really should be playing
three more "better than you are" and two more "worse than you are" games.  We do NOT
want one of those "better than you are" performances this Wednesday, which would be
enough to hang Kansas with a fourth conference loss.

The Cowboys have a difficult remaining schedule.  Three road games, in none of which
they are favored, plus three home games, two of which are against Kansas and Houston,
in which they are also not favored.  Likely only one more conference win for Oklahoma
State, and that one won't be easy, as their game against West Virginia is predicted
to be a one-possession affair.

The one stat that kind of jumped out for me is that Oklahoma State is Pomeroy's #13
team in terms of tempo.  Their games are averaging 166 total points,  Yes, Texas A&M
only scored 63, Prairie View A&M only scored 67, TCU only scored 68, but Texas Tech
scored 102, TCU scored 95 in their second game (in Gallagher-Iba!), Baylor scored 94,
BYU scored 92, and UCF scored 90.  Meanwhile, the Kansas defense is #9.  The game
could easily be more lopsided than the predictions indicate.  Countering that is the
historical difficulty that Kansas has had playing in Stillwater under Self, which
I've always wondered about; could playing at his alma mater affect Self subconsciously?
But Kansas can't really afford to lose this game, or even play much below expectation,
as getting no worse than a 2 seed in the Big Dance comes with significant benefits.
The Jayhawks were knocking on that door until the letdown in Ames, but have slipped
back down into a hole and is currently looking at a 4 seed, if you go strictly by the
NCAA's NET.  Lunardi has Kansas as a 3 seed, perhaps on the basis of its strength of
schedule, but would need to get past North Carolina to reach the Sweet Sixteen.

All the prognosticators are picking Kansas to beat Oklahoma State, by anywhere from
5 to 13.5 points, Whitlock's ratings implying the most pessimistic margin, and Dunkel
is the most optimistic margin.  The average is 7.4 points in favor of Kansas, with a
scatter of 2.3 points.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      OSU     KU      Defensive Stats      OSU     KU
Points/Game         84.7    77.1     Opp Points/Game     81.3    68.0
Avg Score Margin    +3.4    +9.1     Opp Effective FG %  51.8    45.0
Assists/Game        15.4    14.7     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.0     8.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.7    38.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.8    27.6
Effective FG %      53.0    53.5     Blocks/Game          2.8     6.1
Off Rebound %       27.7    27.2     Steals/Game          7.5     5.4
FTA/FGA            0.391   0.337     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.6    14.4
Turnover %          14.4    13.3   

My Stats Comparison        KU              OSU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.88           +0.03    
inconsistency          9.78            9.95    
trend                 +0.00 ± 0.28    -0.39 ± 0.27
mental toughness      -0.28 ± 0.21    +0.04 ± 0.16         
average total pts     145.48          166.04 

Common Opponents
================
There are ten common opponents, one non-conference (Texas A&M Corpus Christi) and
nine conference, one of which Oklahoma State has played twice (TCU), and one of
which both teams have played twice (Iowa State), giving us twelve scores to compare:

KU  +31 CC  at home (+27 neutral court)
OSU +16 CC  at home (+12 neutral court)
KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)

KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
OSU -22 TTU on road (-18 neutral court)
KU  +21 OSU on road (+25 neutral court)

KU   -6 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
OSU +11 UCF at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU  -13 OSU on road ( -9 neutral court)

KU  -18 ISU on road (-14 neutral court)     KU  +21 ISU at home (+17 neutral court)
OSU -12 ISU on road ( -8 neutral court)     OSU -13 ISU at home (-17 neutral court)
KU  -10 OSU on road ( -6 neutral court)     KU  +30 OSU on road (+34 neutral court)

KU  +18 BU  at home (+14 neutral court)
OSU -15 BU  at home (-19 neutral court)
KU  +29 OSU on road (+33 neutral court)

KU  +24 KSU on road (+28 neutral court)
OSU  +1 KSU at home ( -3 neutral court)
KU  +27 OSU on road (+31 neutral court)

KU   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral court)     KU   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral court)
OSU  -3 TCU on road ( +1 neutral court)     OSU  -3 TCU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU   -5 OSU on road ( -1 neutral court)     KU   +3 OSU on road ( +7 neutral court)

KU  +12 UU  at home ( +8 neutral court)
OSU +12 UU  on road (+16 neutral court)
KU  -12 OSU on road ( -8 neutral court)

KU   +8 BYU at home ( +4 neutral court)
OSU  +7 BYU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU   -3 OSU on road ( +1 neutral court)

KU   +4 UA  at home (  0 neutral court)
OSU -37 UA  on road (-33 neutral court)
KU  +29 OSU on road (+33 neutral court)

Seven of the comparisons favor Kansas, while five favor Oklahoma State.  The
average is 8.92 points in favor of the Jayhawks, with a scatter of 17.52 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Anthony Roy (guard)
most points        Anthony Roy (guard)
most rebounds      Parsa Fallah (forward)
most assists       Kanye Clary (guard)
most steals        Jaylen Curry (guard)
most blocks        Christian Coleman (guard)
most turnovers     Kanye Clary (guard)
most fouls         Vyctorius Miller (guard)

Reserve forward Robert Jennings II has a redshirt this season.

                                                          19-6           16-9
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Oklahoma St.
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +6.00   80   74       72       # 13   #  3    # 55   # 63
Pomeroy                 +6.99   84   77       74.6     # 14   #  3    # 64   # 61
Greenfield              +6.50   81.5 75                # 16   #  7    # 63   # 65
Dunkel                 +13.50   84   70       78.7     # 19           # 59
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   81   75                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +8.36   82   73       76.0     # 14   #  3    # 70   # 55
DPPI                    +5.60   81   75       67.3     # 16   #  1    # 80   # 54 
ESPN Bet/BPI            +5.50   81   75.5              # 15   #  3    # 76   # 59
Whitlock                +5.09                          # 13   #  2    # 57   # 51
Colley Matrix           +5.45                          # 10   #  1    # 60   # 63 
Donchess                +7.30   83   75       73.8     # 18   #  2    # 55   # 57
Haslametrics            +7.10   81   74                # 18           # 66
INCCStats               +7.00   83   76       73.2     # 16           # 57
common opponents        +8.92
trend and mental       +11.03
NCAA NET                                               # 14           # 72
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 12           # 60
Pomeroy offense                                        # 42           # 59
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           #106
Pomeroy tempo                                          #194           # 13
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +7.39   82.0 74.5     73.7 
scatter                  2.29    1.4  1.8      3.5

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #218 Green Bay                   94  51   +22.94   +20.06
AWAY   # 34 North Carolina              74  87    +0.96   -13.96
HOME   #187 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +22.47    +8.53
HOME   #250 Princeton                   76  57   +24.73    -5.73
NEUT   #  2 Duke                        66  78    -6.18    -5.82
NEUT   # 82 Notre Dame                  71  61   +10.98    -0.98
NEUT   # 72 Syracuse                    71  60   +10.61    +0.39
NEUT   # 19 Tennessee                   81  76    +1.03    +3.97
HOME   #  9 Connecticut                 56  61    +2.29    -7.29
NEUT   # 55 Missouri                    80  69    +8.57    +2.43
AWAY   # 23 N.C. State                  77  76    -0.58    +1.58
HOME   #171 Towson                      73  49   +20.56    +3.44
HOME   #106 Davidson                    90  61   +16.69   +12.31
AWAY   # 50 UCF                         75  81    +4.57   -10.57
HOME   # 52 TCU                        104 100   +11.73    -7.73
AWAY   # 56 West Virginia               75  86    +4.65   -15.65
HOME   #  7 Iowa St.                    84  63    +0.22   +20.77
HOME   # 49 Baylor                      80  62   +11.42    +6.58
AWAY   # 73 Colorado                    75  69    +7.17    -1.17
AWAY   # 95 Kansas St.                  86  62   +10.04   +13.96
HOME   # 22 BYU                         90  82    +5.50    +2.50
AWAY   # 17 Texas Tech                  64  61    -2.78    +5.78
HOME   #119 Utah                        71  59   +18.50    -6.50
HOME   #  3 Arizona                     82  78    -2.42    +6.42
AWAY   #  7 Iowa St.                    56  74    -6.78   -11.23
AWAY   # 64 Oklahoma St.                84  77    +6.99             0.746
HOME   # 51 Cincinnati                  74  62   +11.61             0.864
HOME   #  4 Houston                     68  68    -0.33             0.488
AWAY   #  3 Arizona                     71  81    -9.42             0.187
AWAY   # 65 Arizona St.                 79  73    +6.53             0.732
HOME   # 95 Kansas St.                  87  70   +17.04             0.946

Here is Oklahoma State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #335 Oral Roberts                95  71   +24.33    -0.33
HOME   # 36 Texas A&M                   87  63    -2.31   +26.31
HOME   #323 Prairie View A&M            94  67   +24.53    +2.47
HOME   #187 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      85  69   +13.51    +2.49
HOME   # 60 South Florida              103  95    +3.05    +4.95
HOME   #257 Nicholls                    95  81   +17.91    -3.91
NEUT   # 69 Northwestern                86  81    +0.21    +4.79
HOME   #108 Sam Houston St.             93  83    +8.24    +1.76
NEUT   # 58 Grand Canyon                84  78    -0.64    +6.64
NEUT   # 53 Oklahoma                    76  85    -1.34    -7.66
HOME   #354 Kansas City                 91  79   +28.50   -16.50
HOME   #180 Cal St. Fullerton           94  89   +13.99    -8.99
HOME   #242 Bethune Cookman            103  77   +17.00    +9.00
AWAY   # 17 Texas Tech                  80 102   -13.23    -8.77
HOME   # 50 UCF                         87  76    +1.39    +9.61
AWAY   #  7 Iowa St.                    71  83   -17.48    +5.48
HOME   # 49 Baylor                      79  94    +1.33   -16.33
HOME   # 95 Kansas St.                  84  83    +6.77    -5.77
AWAY   # 52 TCU                         65  68    -5.22    +2.22
HOME   #  7 Iowa St.                    71  84   -10.48    -2.52
AWAY   #119 Utah                        81  69    +2.17    +9.83
HOME   # 22 BYU                         99  92    -5.31   +12.31
AWAY   #  3 Arizona                     47  84   -20.91   -16.09
AWAY   # 65 Arizona St.                 76  85    -3.50    -5.50
HOME   # 52 TCU                         92  95    +1.78    -4.78
HOME   # 14 Kansas                      77  84    -6.99             0.254
AWAY   # 73 Colorado                    85  87    -2.71             0.399
HOME   # 56 West Virginia               75  72    +2.50             0.594
AWAY   # 51 Cincinnati                  74  80    -5.36             0.306
AWAY   # 50 UCF                         84  90    -5.61             0.298
HOME   #  4 Houston                     72  82   -10.53             0.160