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A 6 game gauntlet to end the Big 12 regular season

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23 hours 18 minutes ago - 12 hours 48 minutes ago #34742 by HawkErrant
This thread to be updated at the end of each B12 Conference game day thru the last regular season games on Saturday, March 7.
The Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday, March 10.

TOP 5 BIG 12 STANDINGS through
Monday 2026-03-02
TEAM		BIG 12  GB
Arizona		 15-2	-	Big 12 regular season champion
Texas Tech	 12-4	2.5	
Houston		 12-4	2.5
KANSAS		 11-5	3.5
Iowa State	 11-6	4.0
These 5 are the contenders for a Top 4 (Double Bye) B12T seed as of 2026-03-02.

KANSAS is 3.5 games behind the leader in fourth place.

What can I say? This week I'm a fan of KANSAS rooting for TCU in Lubbock Tuesday night and/or BYU in Provo on Saturday (BYU's Senior Game) to beat Texas Tech!

MAR 2 MON
UA beat ISU in Tucson, winning the Big 12 regular season title.

KU wins @ASU Tuesday night and v KSU in the Senior Game on Saturday afternoon and KU earns a Top 4 B12T seed!

Remember, tiebreakers are solely for seeding in the Big 12 T. If the remaining 4 top 5 teams play to chalk in their final Big 12 games, KU will get the 3 seed in the B12T and get the double byes for both Tuesday and Wednesday Big 12 Tournament competition.

BUT - Tech winning v TCU and @BYU (BYU is favored, but currently on a 2 game L streak, but it will be their Senior Game, so really a toss up?) gets Tech the 2 seed and UH winning out (chalk) gets UH the 3 seed, leaving ISU and KU fighting for the 4 seed.
.
See the SEEDING SCENARIOS at the end of this entry.

THE GAUNTLET
LAST 6 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR THE 5 LISTED PROGRAMS
MONDAY 2026-02-16 thru
SATURDAY 2026-03-07
P(W): Probability(Win) % are from ESPN Analytics as of this update

KANSAS 
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 18 Wed	@OKS	WON
Feb 21 Sat	CIN	Lost (Biorhythms! I hate day games with this team!)
Feb 23 Mon	UH	WON
Feb 28 Sat	@UA	Lost (Biorhythms! I hate day games with this team!)
Mar 3 Tue	@ASU	P(W) = 78%
Mar 7 Sat	KSU	P(W) = 92% DAY GAME Senior Game
HOUSTON
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 16 Mon	@ISU	Lost
Feb 21 Sat	UA	Lost
Feb 23 Mon	@KU	Lost
Feb 28 Sat	CU	WON
Mar 3 Tue	BU	P(W) = 92%
Mar 7 Sat	@OKS	P(W) = 90%
ARIZONA
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 18 Wed	BYU	WON
Feb 21 Sat	@UH	WON
Feb 24 Tue	@BU	WON
Feb 28 Sat	KU	WON
Mar 2 Mon	ISU	WON
Mar 7 Sat	@CU	P(W) = 92%
IOWA STATE
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 16 Mon	UH	WON
Feb 21 Sat	@BYU	Lost
Feb 24 Tue	@UU	WON
Feb 28 Sat	TT	Lost
Mar 2 Mon	@UA	Lost
Mar 7 Sat	ASU	P(W) = 95%
TEXAS TECH
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 17 Tue	@ASU	Lost
Feb 21 Sat	KSU	WON
Feb 24 Tue	CIN	WON
Feb 28 Sat	@ISU	WON
Mar 3 Tue	TCU	P(W) = 85%
Feb 7 Sat	@BYU	P(W) = 41%

SEEDING SCENARIOS The following assume KU wins its last two games.
All scenarios generated using mred's 2026 Big 12 MBB Tournament Tiebreaker
FYI and use the program also generates a B12T bracket using the projected results.

SEEDING SCENARIO A "CHALK"
KU wins @ASU, v KSU
UA wins @CU
TT wins v TCU, loses @BYU
UH wins v BU, @OKS
ISU wins v ASU
1. Arizona (16 - 2)
2. Houston (14 - 4)
3. KANSAS (13 - 5) Above Texas Tech based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
4. Texas Tech (13 - 5) Below Kansas based on head-to-head wins (0-1).
5. Iowa St (12 - 6)
6. UCF (11 - 7)
7. BYU (10 - 8)
8. W Virginia (9 - 9) Above TCU and Cincinnati based on round-robin record (2-1).
9. TCU (9 - 9) Above Cincinnati and below W Virginia based on round-robin record (1-1).
10. Cincinnati (9 - 9) Below W Virginia and TCU based on round-robin record (1-2).
11. Colorado (7 - 11)
12. Baylor (6 - 12) Above Ariz St based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
13. Ariz St (6 - 12) Below Baylor based on head-to-head wins (0-1).
14. Okla St (5 - 13) 
15. Kansas St (2 - 16) Above Utah based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
16. Utah (2 - 16) Below Kansas St based on head-to-head wins (0-1).
KU is in the lower bracket (all night games) with UH; UA, ISU and TT are on the upper bracket,

SEEDING SCENARIO B "CHALK except TT wins @BYU"
KU wins @ASU, v KSU
UA wins @CU
TT wins v TCU, @BYU
UH wins v BU, @OKS
ISU wins v ASU
1. Arizona (16 - 2)
2. Texas Tech (14 - 4) Above Houston based on winning percentage against #1 teams [Arizona] (1-0).
3. Houston (14 - 4) Below Texas Tech based on winning percentage against #1 teams [Arizona] (0-1).
4. KANSAS (13 - 5)
5. Iowa St (12 - 6)
6. UCF (11 - 7)
7. W Virginia (9 - 9) Above BYU, TCU, and Cincinnati based on round-robin record (3-1).
8. BYU (9 - 9) Above TCU and Cincinnati and below W Virginia based on round-robin record (2-1).
9. TCU (9 - 9) Above Cincinnati and below W Virginia and BYU based on round-robin record (1-2).
10. Cincinnati (9 - 9) Below W Virginia, BYU, and TCU based on round-robin record (1-3).
11. Colorado (7 - 11)
12. Baylor (6 - 12) Above Ariz St based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
13. Ariz St (6 - 12) Below Baylor based on head-to-head wins (0-1).
14. Okla St (5 - 13)
15. Kansas St (2 - 16) Above Utah based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
16. Utah (2 - 16) Below Kansas St based on head-to-head wins (0-1).
KU in the upper bracket with UA and ISU. Quarterfinal game is 11:30 AM day game, most likely against ISU.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Last Edit: 12 hours 48 minutes ago by HawkErrant.
The following user(s) said Thank You: hoshi

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  • HawkErrant
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17 hours 11 minutes ago #34746 by HawkErrant
Link to Big 12 games scheduled and scores for Tuesday March 3 games.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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3 hours 46 minutes ago - 3 hours 43 minutes ago #34751 by USAF Jayhawk
I hate this forum. I spent a lot of time curating a post but the log-in timer expired. It doesn't warn you until AFTER you hit submit and the post is gone. "Sometimes" I can go "back" in the browser to recover what I had typed, but in this case that didn't work. Had to recreate the post from scratch. Timed out again...#crap.

Not doing it again. Suffice it to say the short version is if TTech loses to BYU (BYU is marginally favored) then KU gets the 3 seed if they beat the Kitties on Saturday. ISU results don't matter due to the tiebreaker rules (except if they lose Sat to ASU they potentially fall into a tie with TCU [who host Cincinnati] who just beat ISU so...ouch. The #6 team in the country would get the #6 seed in the conference tourney.
Last Edit: 3 hours 43 minutes ago by USAF Jayhawk.

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