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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
A 6 game gauntlet to end the Big 12 regular season
1 month 2 weeks ago - 1 month 2 weeks ago #34757
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
This thread to be updated at the end of each B12 Conference game day thru the last regular season games on Saturday, March 7.
The Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday, March 10.
...feeling like I needed Margaritaville last night, so I share some almost Buffett today - HE
Boat drinks.
Boys in the band ordered boat drinks.
The Jayhawks in Tempe, did they stink.
Everything seemed to be wrong.
This morning
I shot six holes in my freezer.
I think I got cabin fever.
Somebody sound the alarm.
Odds were not bad but the Jayhawks sure were.
This KANSAS team’s play was best described “grrr”.
Singing “Boat Drinks”!
Something to keep us all warm...
TOP 5 BIG 12 STANDINGS through
Tuesday 2026-03-03These 5 are the contenders for a Top 4 (Double Bye) B12T seed as of 2026-03-02.
KANSAS is 4.0 games behind the leader tied for fourth place with ISU, over which it has the B12T seeding tiebreaker.
MAR 3 TUE
TCU wins at Tech, poor SENIOR NIGHT result for the Red Raiders
KU loses at ASU, spurning the gift of the earlier game (SENIOR NIGHT for ASU)
OKS wins at UCF in OT, spoiling the Knights SENIOR NIGHT
KSU wins on its SENIOR NIGHT v WVU
CU handles UU in Salt Lake City, another SENIOR NIGHT loss and
UC wins its SENIOR NIGHT game v BYU
SENIOR NIGHT teams went 3-3 last night, 4-3 this round so far factoring in UA’s win on Monday
HOUSTON hosts Baylor tonight (Wednesday) and I think we all agree that should be a Houston Senior Night Win.
Last night I had very few words… actually none. Really. That game left me rather speechless. Just ask konza63.
Talk about wasting a gift in TCU beating Tech in Lubbock. I could have used a Margarita, but instead I “Pinch”ed myself immediately after the game, turned on an old episode of “Death in Paradise” and shut out the evening’s travails in the welcoming arms of Guadaloupe, Fete Mori and eventually Morpheus.
This morning, after a busy morning of kitchen cleanup (to include sweeping and mopping the floor), I returned to the computer, ran the seeding predictor to see just how bad it could be and got a pleasant surprise to see it was still mathematically possible KANSAS could earn as high as a 2 seed (possible only if KU wins, UH loses at home to BU and at OKS and BYU beats Tech), but more probably still in the running for the 3 seed in the B12T ASSUMING
KU wins its SENIOR GAME against KState AND
BYU wins its SENIOR GAME hosting Tech.
Needless to say, let’s
ROCK CHALK! JAYHAWK! GO KU! in The PHOG on SENIOR DAY
and
Go BYU COUGARS!
and
Go! whoever is playing Houston!
Because in the unlikely case that UH managed to lose its last two games it could drop all the way to the 5 seed if KU and ISU both win.
.
See the SEEDING SCENARIOS at the end of this entry.
THE GAUNTLET
LAST 6 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR THE 5 LISTED PROGRAMS
MONDAY 2026-02-16 thru
SATURDAY 2026-03-07
P(W): Probability(Win) % are from ESPN Analytics as of this update
KANSASHOUSTONARIZONAIOWA STATETEXAS TECH
SEEDING SCENARIOS
All scenarios generated using mred's 2026 Big 12 MBB Tournament Tiebreaker
FYI and use the program also generates a B12T bracket using the projected results.
SEEDING SCENARIO A "CHALK"
KU wins v KSU
UA wins @CU
TT loses @BYU
UH wins v BU, @OKS
ISU wins v ASU
WVU wins v UCF
BU wins v UU
TCU wins v UCKU is in the lower bracket (all night games) with UH. KU plays either TCU, CU or OKS in the QF; UA, ISU and TT are on the upper bracket,
SEEDING SCENARIO B "CHALK except TT wins @BYU"
KU wins v KSU
UA wins @CU
TT wins @BYU
UH wins v BU, @OKS
ISU wins v ASU
WVU wins v UCF
BU wins v UU
TCU wins v UCKU in the upper bracket with UA and ISU. Quarterfinal game is 11:30 AM day game, most likely against ISU, but could be ASU or BU. UH and TT are lower bracket.
SEEDING SCENARIO C "CHALK except UH loses v BU and @OKS"
KU wins v KSU
UA wins @CU
TT loses @BYU
UH loses v BU, @OKS (Highly unlikely, but we’re dreaming...)
ISU wins v ASU
WVU wins v UCF
BU wins v UU
TCU wins v UCKU in the lower bracket (all night games) with TT. QF most likely against WVU, but could be BYU or KSU. UA, ISU and UH are upper bracket.
SEEDING SCENARIO D "CHALK except KU loses"
KU loses v KSU
UA wins @CU
TT loses @BYU
UH wins v BU, @OKS
ISU wins v ASU
WVU wins v UCF
BU wins v UU
TCU wins v UCKU in the upper bracket (first two games day games) with UA and ISU. R2 game v ASU or BU. QF if advance v ISU. UH, TT are lower bracket.
P.S. – USAFJayhawk, I feel your pain regarding this forum, my friend. Sadly there is little I can do about it.
Because of it I write almost all my posts in my word processor, then copy and paste the text into the forum for formatting, self proofreading (with all its potential faults) and finally submitting.
ROCK CHALK! Jayhawk!
The Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday, March 10.
...feeling like I needed Margaritaville last night, so I share some almost Buffett today - HE
Boat drinks.
Boys in the band ordered boat drinks.
The Jayhawks in Tempe, did they stink.
Everything seemed to be wrong.
This morning
I shot six holes in my freezer.
I think I got cabin fever.
Somebody sound the alarm.
Odds were not bad but the Jayhawks sure were.
This KANSAS team’s play was best described “grrr”.
Singing “Boat Drinks”!
Something to keep us all warm...
TOP 5 BIG 12 STANDINGS through
Tuesday 2026-03-03
TEAM BIG 12 GB
Arizona 15-2 - Big 12 regular season champion
Houston 12-4 2.5
Texas Tech 12-5 3.0
KANSAS 11-6 4.0
Iowa State 11-6 4.0KANSAS is 4.0 games behind the leader tied for fourth place with ISU, over which it has the B12T seeding tiebreaker.
MAR 3 TUE
TCU wins at Tech, poor SENIOR NIGHT result for the Red Raiders
KU loses at ASU, spurning the gift of the earlier game (SENIOR NIGHT for ASU)
OKS wins at UCF in OT, spoiling the Knights SENIOR NIGHT
KSU wins on its SENIOR NIGHT v WVU
CU handles UU in Salt Lake City, another SENIOR NIGHT loss and
UC wins its SENIOR NIGHT game v BYU
SENIOR NIGHT teams went 3-3 last night, 4-3 this round so far factoring in UA’s win on Monday
HOUSTON hosts Baylor tonight (Wednesday) and I think we all agree that should be a Houston Senior Night Win.
Last night I had very few words… actually none. Really. That game left me rather speechless. Just ask konza63.
Talk about wasting a gift in TCU beating Tech in Lubbock. I could have used a Margarita, but instead I “Pinch”ed myself immediately after the game, turned on an old episode of “Death in Paradise” and shut out the evening’s travails in the welcoming arms of Guadaloupe, Fete Mori and eventually Morpheus.
This morning, after a busy morning of kitchen cleanup (to include sweeping and mopping the floor), I returned to the computer, ran the seeding predictor to see just how bad it could be and got a pleasant surprise to see it was still mathematically possible KANSAS could earn as high as a 2 seed (possible only if KU wins, UH loses at home to BU and at OKS and BYU beats Tech), but more probably still in the running for the 3 seed in the B12T ASSUMING
KU wins its SENIOR GAME against KState AND
BYU wins its SENIOR GAME hosting Tech.
Needless to say, let’s
ROCK CHALK! JAYHAWK! GO KU! in The PHOG on SENIOR DAY
and
Go BYU COUGARS!
and
Go! whoever is playing Houston!
Because in the unlikely case that UH managed to lose its last two games it could drop all the way to the 5 seed if KU and ISU both win.
.
See the SEEDING SCENARIOS at the end of this entry.
THE GAUNTLET
LAST 6 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR THE 5 LISTED PROGRAMS
MONDAY 2026-02-16 thru
SATURDAY 2026-03-07
P(W): Probability(Win) % are from ESPN Analytics as of this update
KANSAS
DATE OPP RESULT
Feb 18 Wed @OKS WON
Feb 21 Sat CIN Lost (Biorhythms! I hate day games with this team!)
Feb 23 Mon UH WON
Feb 28 Sat @UA Lost (Biorhythms! I hate day games with this team!)
Mar 3 Tue @ASU Lost (KU fans be WT~?)
Mar 7 Sat KSU P(W) = 92% DAY GAME ¡¡¡SENIOR GAME!!!DATE OPP RESULT
Feb 16 Mon @ISU Lost
Feb 21 Sat UA Lost
Feb 23 Mon @KU Lost
Feb 28 Sat CU WON
Mar 4 Wed BU P(W) = 92%
Mar 7 Sat @OKS P(W) = 90%DATE OPP RESULT
Feb 18 Wed BYU WON
Feb 21 Sat @UH WON
Feb 24 Tue @BU WON
Feb 28 Sat KU WON
Mar 2 Mon ISU WON
Mar 7 Sat @CU P(W) = 92%DATE OPP RESULT
Feb 16 Mon UH WON
Feb 21 Sat @BYU Lost
Feb 24 Tue @UU WON
Feb 28 Sat TT Lost
Mar 2 Mon @UA Lost
Mar 7 Sat ASU P(W) = 95%DATE OPP RESULT
Feb 17 Tue @ASU Lost
Feb 21 Sat KSU WON
Feb 24 Tue CIN WON
Feb 28 Sat @ISU WON
Mar 3 Tue TCU Lost (a gift the Jayhawks did not accept)
Feb 7 Sat @BYU P(W) = 41%SEEDING SCENARIOS
All scenarios generated using mred's 2026 Big 12 MBB Tournament Tiebreaker
FYI and use the program also generates a B12T bracket using the projected results.
SEEDING SCENARIO A "CHALK"
KU wins v KSU
UA wins @CU
TT loses @BYU
UH wins v BU, @OKS
ISU wins v ASU
WVU wins v UCF
BU wins v UU
TCU wins v UC
1. Arizona (16 - 2)
2. Houston (14 - 4)
3. KANSAS (12 – 6) Above Texas Tech and Iowa St based on round-robin record (2-1).
4. Texas Tech (12 – 6) Above Iowa St and below Kansas based on round-robin record (1-1).
5. Iowa St (12 – 6) Below Kansas and Texas Tech based on round-robin record (1-2).
6. TCU (11 - 7)
7. W Virginia (9 – 9) Above UCF, Cincinnati, and BYU based on round-robin record (5-0).
8. UCF (9 – 9) With Cincinnati, above BYU and below W Virginia based on round-robin record (2-3).
Above Cincinnati based on winning percentage against #6 teams [TCU] (1-0).
9. Cincinnati (9 – 9) With UCF, above BYU and below W Virginia based on round-robin record (2-3).
Below UCF based on winning percentage against #6 teams [TCU] (0-1).
10. BYU (9 – 9) Below W Virginia, UCF, and Cincinnati based on round-robin record (0-3).
11. Colorado (7 – 11) Above Ariz St based on head-to-head wins (2-0).
12. Ariz St (7 – 11) Below Colorado based on head-to-head wins (0-2).
13. Baylor (6 – 12) Above Okla St based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
14. Okla St (6 – 12) Below Baylor based on head-to-head wins (0-1).
15. Kansas St (3 - 15)
16. Utah (2 - 16)SEEDING SCENARIO B "CHALK except TT wins @BYU"
KU wins v KSU
UA wins @CU
TT wins @BYU
UH wins v BU, @OKS
ISU wins v ASU
WVU wins v UCF
BU wins v UU
TCU wins v UC
1. Arizona (16 - 2)
2. Houston (14 - 4)
3. Texas Tech (13 - 5)
4. KANSAS (12 – 6) Above Iowa St based on winning percentage against #1 teams [Arizona] (1-1).
5. Iowa St (12 – 6) Below Kansas based on winning percentage against #1 teams [Arizona] (0-1).
6. TCU (11 - 7)
7. W Virginia (9 – 9) Above UCF and Cincinnati based on round-robin record (4-0).
8. UCF (9 – 9) With Cincinnati, below W Virginia based on round-robin record (1-3).
Above Cincinnati based on winning percentage against #3 teams [Texas Tech] (1-0).
9. Cincinnati (9 – 9) With UCF, below W Virginia based on round-robin record (1-3).
Below UCF based on winning percentage against #3 teams [Texas Tech] (0-1).
10. BYU (8 - 10)
11. Colorado (7 – 11) Above Ariz St based on head-to-head wins (2-0).
12. Ariz St (7 – 11) Below Colorado based on head-to-head wins (0-2).
13. Baylor (6 – 12) Above Okla St based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
14. Okla St (6 – 12) Below Baylor based on head-to-head wins (0-1).
15. Kansas St (3 - 15)
16. Utah (2 - 16)SEEDING SCENARIO C "CHALK except UH loses v BU and @OKS"
KU wins v KSU
UA wins @CU
TT loses @BYU
UH loses v BU, @OKS (Highly unlikely, but we’re dreaming...)
ISU wins v ASU
WVU wins v UCF
BU wins v UU
TCU wins v UC
1. Arizona (16 - 2)
2. KANSAS (12 – 6) Above Iowa St, Texas Tech, and Houston based on round-robin record (3-1).
3. Texas Tech (12 – 6) With Iowa St, above Houston and below Kansas based on round-robin record (2-2). Above Iowa St based on head-to-head record (1-0).
4. Iowa St (12 – 6) With Texas Tech, above Houston and below Kansas based on round-robin record (2-2). Below Texas Tech based on head-to-head record (0-1).
5. Houston (12 – 6) Below Kansas, Iowa St, and Texas Tech based on round-robin record (1-3).
6. TCU (11 - 7)
7. W Virginia (9 – 9) Above UCF, Cincinnati, and BYU based on round-robin record (5-0).
8. UCF (9 – 9) With Cincinnati, above BYU and below W Virginia based on round-robin record (2-3).
Above Cincinnati based on winning percentage against #2 teams [Houston, Iowa St, Kansas, and Texas Tech] (2-2).
9. Cincinnati (9 – 9) With UCF, above BYU and below W Virginia based on round-robin record (2-3).
Below UCF based on winning percentage against #2 teams [Houston, Iowa St, Kansas, and Texas Tech] (2-3).
10. BYU (9 – 9) Below W Virginia, UCF, and Cincinnati based on round-robin record (0-3).
11. Baylor (7 – 11) Above Colorado, Ariz St, and Okla St based on round-robin record (3-0).
12. Colorado (7 – 11) Above Ariz St and Okla St and below Baylor based on round-robin record (3-1).
13. Ariz St (7 – 11) Above Okla St and below Baylor and Colorado based on round-robin record (1-3).
14. Okla St (7 – 11) Below Baylor, Colorado, and Ariz St based on round-robin record (0-3).
15. Kansas St (3 - 15)
16. Utah (2 - 16)SEEDING SCENARIO D "CHALK except KU loses"
KU loses v KSU
UA wins @CU
TT loses @BYU
UH wins v BU, @OKS
ISU wins v ASU
WVU wins v UCF
BU wins v UU
TCU wins v UC
1. Arizona (16 - 2)
2. Houston (14 - 4)
3. Texas Tech (12 – 6) Above Iowa St based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
4. Iowa St (12 – 6) Below Texas Tech based on head-to-head wins (0-1).
5. KANSAS (11 – 7) Above TCU based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
6. TCU (11 – 7) Below Kansas based on head-to-head wins (0-1).
7. W Virginia (9 – 9) Above UCF, Cincinnati, and BYU based on round-robin record (5-0).
8. UCF (9 – 9) With Cincinnati, above BYU and below W Virginia based on round-robin record (2-3).
Above Cincinnati based on winning percentage against #3 teams [Texas Tech] (1-0).
9. Cincinnati (9 – 9) With UCF, above BYU and below W Virginia based on round-robin record (2-3).
Below UCF based on winning percentage against #3 teams [Texas Tech] (0-1).
10. BYU (9 – 9) Below W Virginia, UCF, and Cincinnati based on round-robin record (0-3).
11. Colorado (7 – 11) Above Ariz St based on head-to-head wins (2-0).
12. Ariz St (7 – 11) Below Colorado based on head-to-head wins (0-2).
13. Baylor (6 – 12) Above Okla St based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
14. Okla St (6 – 12) Below Baylor based on head-to-head wins (0-1).
15. Kansas St (4 - 14)
16. Utah (2 - 16)P.S. – USAFJayhawk, I feel your pain regarding this forum, my friend. Sadly there is little I can do about it.
Because of it I write almost all my posts in my word processor, then copy and paste the text into the forum for formatting, self proofreading (with all its potential faults) and finally submitting.
ROCK CHALK! Jayhawk!
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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