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A 6 game gauntlet to end the Big 12 regular season

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2 weeks 16 hours ago - 1 week 6 days ago #34604 by HawkErrant
I plan to update this thread at the end of every Big 12 Conference game day through the last regular season games on Saturday, March 7.
The Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday, March 10.

Top 5 Big 12 Standings through
MONDAY 2026-02-16
Team		Big 12  Trail
Houston		 11-2	-
Arizona		 10-2	0.5	
Iowa State	 10-3	1.0
KANSAS		  9-3	1.5
Texas Tech	  9-3	1.5
The remaining 11 programs do not have a realistic chance of ending up regular season conference champions. These are the contenders as of 2026-02-15,

THE GAUNTLET
LAST 6 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR THE 5 LISTED PROGRAMS
MONDAY 2026-02-16 thru
SATURDAY 2026-03-07


KANSAS
Feb 18 Wed	@OKS
Feb 21 Sat	CIN
Feb 23 Mon	UH
Feb 28 Sat	@UA
Mar 3 Tue	@ASU
Mar 7 Sat	KSU
HOUSTON
Feb 16 Mon	@ISU	Lost
Feb 21 Sat	UA
Feb 23 Mon	@KU
Feb 28 Sat	CU
Mar 3 Tue	BU
Mar 7 Sat	@OKS
ARIZONA
Feb 18 Wed	BYU
Feb 21 Sat	@UH
Feb 24 Tue	@BU
Feb 28 Sat	KU
Mar 2 Mon	ISU
Mar 7 Sat	@CU
IOWA STATE
Feb 16 Mon	UH	WON
Feb 21 Sat	@BYU
Feb 24 Tue	@UU
Feb 28 Sat	TT
Mar 2 Mon	@UA
Mar 7 Sat	ASU
TEXAS TECH
Feb 17 Tue	@ASU
Feb 21 Sat	KSU
Feb 24 Tue	CIN
Feb 28 Sat	@ISU
Mar 3 Tue	TCU
Feb 7 Sat	@BYU

Thanks to ISU beating UH in Ames...
UA is 0.5 games behind first place UH
ISU is 1 game behind first place UH.
KU and TT are
1.5 games behind UH (11-2)
1 game behind UA (10-2)
The key is we are just 1 game back in the LOSS column with 6 games to go.

KU once again controls its destiny.
Win out and be guaranteed a least a SHARE of the Big 12 regular season crown as that would mean beating both UH in AFH and UA in Tucson, giving both those programs at LEAST 3 losses.

There are no tiebreakers for the regular season crown.
Programs with the same final regular season Big 12 Conference record are co-champions.

Tiebreakers are solely for seeding in the Big 12 T, and if KU wins out they would be guaranteed to be in the Top 4 seeds (and get the double byes for both Tuesday and Wednesday tournament competition) because KU would hold the first tiebreakers - head-to-head competition - over TT (1-0), UH (1-0) and UA (2-0)

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Last Edit: 1 week 6 days ago by HawkErrant. Reason: Fix errata re: ISU record after ISU beat UH in Ames.
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2 weeks 16 hours ago #34605 by newtonhawk
A cursory look at the remaining schedule leads me to believe there could be a logjam at the top with 4 losses. This is getting interesting and fun! Thanks HE for the breakdown and future updates.
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2 weeks 4 hours ago - 1 week 2 days ago #34608 by HawkErrant
Top 5 Big 12 Standings through
TUESDAY 2026-02-17
Team		Big 12  GB
Houston		 11-2	-
Arizona		 10-2	0.5	
Iowa State	 10-3	1.0
KANSAS		  9-3	1.5
Texas Tech	  9-4	2.0
The remaining 11 programs do not have a realistic chance of ending up regular season conference champions.
These 5 are the contenders as of 2026-02-15,


This thread to be updated at the end of each B12 Conference game day thru the last regular season games on Saturday, March 7.
The Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday, March 10.


Thanks to ASU beating Texas Tech in Tempe on Tuesday Feb 17...
UA is 0.5 games behind UH and plays BYU Wednesday night in Tucson.
ISU is 1.0 games behind UH.
KU is 1.5 games behind UH and plays OKS Wednesday night in Stillwater.
TT is 2.0 games behind.UH

The key is KU is just 1 game behind both UH and UA in the LOSS column with 6 games left starting with the Cowboys.

KU controls its destiny.
Win out and be guaranteed a least a SHARE of the Big 12 regular season crown as that would mean beating both UH in AFH and UA in Tucson, giving both those programs at LEAST 3 losses.
The Wednesday Feb 18 game in Stillwater - and essentially every game left in the regular season - qualifies as MUST WIN if KU wants at least a share of what would be its 21st Big 12 title in 30 Big 12 seasons, and NCAA best 64th conference title in program history.

Remember, there are no tiebreakers for the regular season crown.
Programs with the same final regular season Big 12 Conference record are co-champions.

Tiebreakers are solely for seeding in the Big 12 T, and if KU wins out they would be guaranteed to be in the Top 4 seeds (and get the double byes for both Tuesday and Wednesday tournament competition) because KU would hold the first tiebreakers - head-to-head competition - over TT (1-0), UH (1-0) and UA (2-0)


THE GAUNTLET
LAST 6 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR THE 5 LISTED PROGRAMS
MONDAY 2026-02-16 thru
SATURDAY 2026-03-07


KANSAS
Feb 18 Wed	@OKS
Feb 21 Sat	CIN
Feb 23 Mon	UH
Feb 28 Sat	@UA
Mar 3 Tue	@ASU
Mar 7 Sat	KSU
HOUSTON
Feb 16 Mon	@ISU	Lost
Feb 21 Sat	UA
Feb 23 Mon	@KU
Feb 28 Sat	CU
Mar 3 Tue	BU
Mar 7 Sat	@OKS
ARIZONA
Feb 18 Wed	BYU
Feb 21 Sat	@UH
Feb 24 Tue	@BU
Feb 28 Sat	KU
Mar 2 Mon	ISU
Mar 7 Sat	@CU
IOWA STATE
Feb 16 Mon	UH	WON
Feb 21 Sat	@BYU
Feb 24 Tue	@UU
Feb 28 Sat	TT
Mar 2 Mon	@UA
Mar 7 Sat	ASU
TEXAS TECH
Feb 17 Tue	@ASU	Lost
Feb 21 Sat	KSU
Feb 24 Tue	CIN
Feb 28 Sat	@ISU
Mar 3 Tue	TCU
Feb 7 Sat	@BYU

NB: I edited the origin post for this thread to properly reflect ISU's results and standing after beating UH in Ames on Monday.
I was so excited that UH lost that while I updated UH correctly it seems I could not bring myself to immediately update ISU's record either in this thread or in my original post in porthawk's "Iowa State beat Houston tonight" post.
I reckon I just didn't want to write anything good about ISU
Who wudda thunk it? :woohoo:
I caught the errors while creating this thread entry for Tuesday night's games.
Folks, I'm a septuagenarian - I really do appreciate proofreaders! Don't be shy! :) - HE

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Last Edit: 1 week 2 days ago by HawkErrant.
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1 week 6 days ago - 1 week 2 days ago #34617 by HawkErrant
Top 5 Big 12 Standings through
WEDNESDAY 2026-02-18
Team		Big 12  GB
Houston		 11-2	-
Arizona		 11-2	-	
Iowa State	 10-3	1.0
KANSAS		 10-3	1.0
Texas Tech	  9-4	2.0
The remaining 11 programs do not have a realistic chance of ending up regular season conference champions.
These 5 are the contenders for that - or at least a Top 4 B12T seed - as of 2026-02-15,


This thread to be updated at the end of each B12 Conference game day thru the last regular season games on Saturday, March 7.
The Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday, March 10.


Thanks to KU and UA winning Feb 18...
UA and UH are tied at 11-2
ISU and KU are tied at 10-3, 1.0 game back.
TT is 9-4 and 2.0 games back - and with J.T. Toppin out for the rest of the season (ACL injury), they probably will have a major fight just to stay in 5th place. Losing Toppin is a huge loss for them and for the success of the Big 12 in postseason play.
.
The key for us here remains KU is just 1 game behind both UH and UA with 5 games left now.

KU still controls its destiny.
Win out and be guaranteed a least a SHARE of the Big 12 regular season crown as that would mean beating both UH in AFH and UA in Tucson, giving both those programs at LEAST 3 losses.
The Saturday Wednesday Feb 21 game against Cincinnati in AFH - and really every game left in the regular season - qualifies as MUST WIN if KU wants at least a share of what would be its 21st Big 12 title in 30 Big 12 seasons, and NCAA best 64th conference title in program history.

Remember, there are no tiebreakers for the regular season crown.
Programs with the same final regular season Big 12 Conference record are co-champions.

Tiebreakers are solely for seeding in the Big 12 T, and if KU wins out they would be guaranteed to be in the Top 4 seeds (and get the double byes for both Tuesday and Wednesday tournament competition) because KU would hold the first tiebreakers - head-to-head competition - over TT (1-0), UH (1-0) and UA (2-0)


THE GAUNTLET
LAST 6 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR THE 5 LISTED PROGRAMS
MONDAY 2026-02-16 thru
SATURDAY 2026-03-07


KANSAS
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 18 Wed	@OKS	WON
Feb 21 Sat	CIN
Feb 23 Mon	UH
Feb 28 Sat	@UA
Mar 3 Tue	@ASU
Mar 7 Sat	KSU
HOUSTON
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 16 Mon	@ISU	Lost
Feb 21 Sat	UA
Feb 23 Mon	@KU
Feb 28 Sat	CU
Mar 3 Tue	BU
Mar 7 Sat	@OKS
ARIZONA
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 18 Wed	BYU	WON
Feb 21 Sat	@UH
Feb 24 Tue	@BU
Feb 28 Sat	KU
Mar 2 Mon	ISU
Mar 7 Sat	@CU
IOWA STATE
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 16 Mon	UH	WON
Feb 21 Sat	@BYU
Feb 24 Tue	@UU
Feb 28 Sat	TT
Mar 2 Mon	@UA
Mar 7 Sat	ASU
TEXAS TECH
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 17 Tue	@ASU	Lost
Feb 21 Sat	KSU
Feb 24 Tue	CIN
Feb 28 Sat	@ISU
Mar 3 Tue	TCU
Feb 7 Sat	@BYU

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Last Edit: 1 week 2 days ago by HawkErrant. Reason: formatting and adding link re: Toppin injury

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1 week 2 days ago #34649 by HawkErrant
This thread to be updated at the end of each B12 Conference game day thru the last regular season games on Saturday, March 7.
The Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday, March 10.


TOP 5 BIG 12 STANDINGS through
Saturday 2026-02-21
Team		Big 12  GB
Arizona		 12-2	-	
Houston		 11-3	1.0
Iowa State	 10-4	2.0
KANSAS		 10-4	2.0
Texas Tech	 10-4	2.0
The remaining 11 programs do not have a realistic chance of ending up regular season conference champions.
These 5 are the contenders for that - or at least a Top 4 (Double Bye) B12T seed - as of 2026-02-21,


FEB 21 SAT - UA and Tech win; KU, UH and ISU lose.
.
KANSAS is once again 2 games behind the leader and in a three way tie for third with ISU and Tech.

KU NO LONGER controls its destiny as far as winning a share of the Big 12 regular season title, but
KU DOES still control it's destiny as far as earning a Top 4 B12T seed!

KU must win out and UA must lose 2 games in order for KU to earn at least a SHARE of the Big 12 regular season crown.
Winning out would mean beating both UH in AFH and UA in Tucson.
Doing so would give UH at least 4 losses, but
UA would have to fall to another opponent in addition to KU for KU to get the tie.

Big Monday Feb 23 game against UH in AFH - third verse, same as the first - is MUST WIN for KU to have a chance for at least a share of what would be its 21st Big 12 title in 30 Big 12 seasons, and NCAA best 64th conference title in program history.

More realistically, it's MUST WIN to keep pace with ISU and Tech for that Top 4 (double bye) Big 12 Tournament seed.

Remember, there are no tiebreakers for the regular season crown.
Programs with the same final regular season Big 12 Conference record are co-champions.

Tiebreakers are solely for seeding in the Big 12 T, and if KU wins out the Jayhawks would be guaranteed to be in the Top 4 seeds (and get the double byes for both Tuesday and Wednesday Big 12 Tournament competition) because KU would hold the first tiebreaker - head-to-head competition - over TT (1-0), UH (1-0) and UA (2-0)


THE GAUNTLET
LAST 6 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR THE 5 LISTED PROGRAMS
MONDAY 2026-02-16 thru
SATURDAY 2026-03-07


KANSAS
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 18 Wed	@OKS	WON
Feb 21 Sat	CIN	Lost
Feb 23 Mon	UH
Feb 28 Sat	@UA
Mar 3 Tue	@ASU
Mar 7 Sat	KSU
HOUSTON
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 16 Mon	@ISU	Lost
Feb 21 Sat	UA	Lost
Feb 23 Mon	@KU
Feb 28 Sat	CU
Mar 3 Tue	BU
Mar 7 Sat	@OKS
ARIZONA
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 18 Wed	BYU	WON
Feb 21 Sat	@UH	WON
Feb 24 Tue	@BU
Feb 28 Sat	KU
Mar 2 Mon	ISU
Mar 7 Sat	@CU
IOWA STATE
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 16 Mon	UH	WON
Feb 21 Sat	@BYU	Lost
Feb 24 Tue	@UU
Feb 28 Sat	TT
Mar 2 Mon	@UA
Mar 7 Sat	ASU
TEXAS TECH
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 17 Tue	@ASU	Lost
Feb 21 Sat	KSU	WON
Feb 24 Tue	CIN
Feb 28 Sat	@ISU
Mar 3 Tue	TCU
Feb 7 Sat	@BYU

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"

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1 week 1 day ago - 1 week 1 day ago #34673 by HawkErrant
This thread to be updated at the end of each B12 Conference game day thru the last regular season games on Saturday, March 7.
The Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday, March 10.


TOP 5 BIG 12 STANDINGS through
Monday 2026-02-23
Team		Big 12  GB
Arizona		 12-2	-	
KANSAS		 11-4	1.5
Houston		 11-4	1.5
Iowa State	 10-4	2.0
Texas Tech	 10-4	2.0
The remaining 11 programs do not have a realistic chance of ending up regular season conference champions.
These 5 are the contenders for that - or at least a Top 4 (Double Bye) B12T seed - as of 2026-02-21.


FEB 23 MON: KANSAS beat UH
FEB 24 TUE games: CIN @TTEch 6 PM ESPN2; UA @BU 8 PM ESPN2; ISU @UU 8 PM FS1
.
KANSAS is 1.5 games behind the leader and in a two way tie for second with UH.

KU NO LONGER controls its destiny as far as winning a share of the Big 12 regular season title, but
KU DOES still control it's destiny as far as earning a Top 4 B12T seed!

KU must win out and UA must lose 2 games in order for KU to earn at least a SHARE of the Big 12 regular season crown.
Winning out would mean beating both UH in AFH (WON & DONE!) and UA in Tucson.
UH has 4 losses, but
UA would have to fall to another opponent in addition to losing to KU at home this Saturday for KU to get the tie.

KANSAS at UA Saturday Feb 28 day game - fourth verse, same as the first - is MUST WIN for KU to have a chance for at least a share of what would be its 21st Big 12 title in 30 Big 12 seasons, and NCAA best 64th conference title in program history.

More realistically, it's MUST WIN to keep pace with UH, ISU and Tech for that Top 4 (double bye) Big 12 Tournament seed.

Remember, there are no tiebreakers for the regular season crown.
Programs with the same final regular season Big 12 Conference record are co-champions.

Tiebreakers are solely for seeding in the Big 12 T, and if KU wins out the Jayhawks would be guaranteed to be in the Top 4 seeds (and get the double byes for both Tuesday and Wednesday Big 12 Tournament competition) because KU would hold the first tiebreaker - head-to-head competition - over TT (1-0, DONE!), UH (1-0, DONE!) and UA (2-0 Working on it!)


THE GAUNTLET
LAST 6 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR THE 5 LISTED PROGRAMS
MONDAY 2026-02-16 thru
SATURDAY 2026-03-07

P(W): Probability(Win) % are from ESPN Analytics as of this update

KANSAS
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 18 Wed	@OKS	WON
Feb 21 Sat	CIN	Lost
Feb 23 Mon	UH	WON
Feb 28 Sat	@UA	P(W) = 18% DAY GAME
Mar 3 Tue	@ASU	P(W) = 79%
Mar 7 Sat	KSU	P(W) = 92% DAY GAME Senior Game
HOUSTON
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 16 Mon	@ISU	Lost
Feb 21 Sat	UA	Lost
Feb 23 Mon	@KU	Lost
Feb 28 Sat	CU	P(W) = 96%
Mar 3 Tue	BU	P(W) = 92%
Mar 7 Sat	@OKS	P(W) = 90%
ARIZONA
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 18 Wed	BYU	WON
Feb 21 Sat	@UH	WON
Feb 24 Tue	@BU	P(W) = 80%
Feb 28 Sat	KU	P(W) = 82%
Mar 2 Mon	ISU	P(W) = 71%
Mar 7 Sat	@CU	P(W) = 91%
IOWA STATE
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 16 Mon	UH	WON
Feb 21 Sat	@BYU	Lost
Feb 24 Tue	@UU	P(W) = 90%
Feb 28 Sat	TT	P(W) = 77%
Mar 2 Mon	@UA	P(W) = 29%
Mar 7 Sat	ASU	P(W) = 95%
TEXAS TECH
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 17 Tue	@ASU	Lost
Feb 21 Sat	KSU	WON
Feb 24 Tue	CIN	P(W) = 81%
Feb 28 Sat	@ISU	P(W) = 23%
Mar 3 Tue	TCU	P(W) = 85%
Feb 7 Sat	@BYU	P(W) = 36%

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Last Edit: 1 week 1 day ago by HawkErrant.
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1 week 1 day ago - 1 week 1 day ago #34675 by konza63
Was just looking at the standings and remaining games, and there is an entirely plausible scenario in which:

* Houston wins its final 3 games (in which it will be favored in each) to finish 14-4
* KU wins its final 3 games, including the big upset Saturday at McKale over Zona, to finish 14-4
* ISU wins its final 4 games, including a big upset win over Zona at McKale, to finish 14-4
* Zona goes 2-2 in crunch time, losing to very worthy foes KU and ISU at home, to finish 14-4

Can you IMAGINE if the best league in the land wound up with a 4-way tie for the crown? As good as all the premiere teams are and have been, perhaps that would only be fitting - the cherry on top to a great regular season.

PS: I didn't mention TT because they have a tough road, sans their best player Toppin - going to ISU and BYU and having to win those plus home games vs. TCU and Cincy in order to finish 14-4. If they did manage to win all those, but ISU still took down Zona and the rest of the above scenario held, we'd still see a 4-way tie at the top but with TT not ISU being in that mix.

Let it be thus! (Starting with a massive KU win over Zona - avenging the ghosts of Lute Olson - this Saturday)

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 1 week 1 day ago by konza63.
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1 week 16 hours ago #34687 by konza63
Question for HawkErrant:

If this plausible yet still improbable scenario occurs, would KU earn the Big 12 tourney 1 seed? (Since we would be 4-1 against the other 3, which I believe would be the best record among those 4)

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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1 week 14 hours ago #34689 by konza63
I just found and ran the simulator on the above scenario.

bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=mbb

If it plays out that way, KU would get the top B12 tourney seed.

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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1 week 12 hours ago #34693 by HawkErrant
I used the link myself, neat site.

PRESENTING TWO SCENARIOs WHERE KANSAS WINS ITS NEXT 4 GAMES

SCENARIO 1
KU wins out
AND
UA has one more loss to someone else in addition to KU
THEN
KANSAS is the 1 seed, regardless of whether the 4th Top 4 participant is Texas Tech or Iowa State.

SCENARIO 2
KU wins out
AND
UA wins its remaining 3 besides KU
THEN
UA is the sole conference champion and #1 seed and KU is the #2 seed.

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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1 week 5 hours ago - 1 week 5 hours ago #34695 by HawkErrant
This thread to be updated at the end of each B12 Conference game day thru the last regular season games on Saturday, March 7.
The Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday, March 10.


TOP 5 BIG 12 STANDINGS through
Tuesday 2026-02-24
Team		Big 12  GB
Arizona		 13-2	-	
KANSAS		 11-4	2.0
Houston		 11-4	2.0
Iowa State	 11-4	2.0
Texas Tech	 11-4	2.0
The remaining 11 programs do not have a realistic chance of ending up regular season conference champions.
These 5 are the contenders for that - or at least a Top 4 (Double Bye) B12T seed - as of 2026-02-24.


KANSAS is 2 games behind the leader and in a FOUR WAY tie for second.

FEB 24 TUE
A "chalk" day for the 3 Gauntlet programs that played.

Cincy gave Tech trouble at first, but Tech prevailed in Lubbock 80-68
Baylor led much of the way v UA, but fell short H2 87-80. A lost chance for the other UA upset KU needs to tie for 1st.
ISU romped.over Utah in Ogden 75-59.. and FWIW elsewhere in the Big 12

78 ASU
90 TCU

84 WVU
91 OKS

and as I write this UCF is destroying BYU in Provo. H1 ended 52-28.

KState plays @CU WED FEB 25 at 8 PM CT on FS1.

KU does NOT control its destiny as far as winning a share of the Big 12 regular season title, but
KU DOES still control it's destiny as far as earning a Top 4 B12T seed!

KU must win out and UA must lose 2 games in order for KU to earn at least a SHARE of the Big 12 regular season crown.
Winning out would mean beating both UH in AFH (WON & DONE!) and UA in Tucson this Saturday.
UH has 4 losses, but
UA would have to fall to another opponent in addition to losing to KU at home this Saturday for KU to get the tie.

KANSAS at UA Saturday Feb 28 day game - fourth verse, same as the first - is MUST WIN for KU to have a chance for at least a share of what would be its 21st Big 12 title in 30 Big 12 seasons, and NCAA best 64th conference title in program history.

More realistically, it's MUST WIN to keep pace with UH, ISU and Tech for that Top 4 (double bye) Big 12 Tournament seed.

Remember, there are no tiebreakers for the regular season crown.
Programs with the same final regular season Big 12 Conference record are co-champions.

Tiebreakers are solely for seeding in the Big 12 T, and if KU wins out the Jayhawks would be guaranteed to be in the Top 4 seeds (and get the double byes for both Tuesday and Wednesday Big 12 Tournament competition) because KU would hold the first tiebreaker - head-to-head competition - over TT (1-0, DONE!), UH (1-0, DONE!) and UA (2-0 Working on it!)

THE GAUNTLET
LAST 6 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR THE 5 LISTED PROGRAMS
MONDAY 2026-02-16 thru
SATURDAY 2026-03-07

P(W): Probability(Win) % are from ESPN Analytics as of this update

KANSAS
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 18 Wed	@OKS	WON
Feb 21 Sat	CIN	Lost
Feb 23 Mon	UH	WON
Feb 28 Sat	@UA	P(W) = 18% DAY GAME
Mar 3 Tue	@ASU	P(W) = 79%
Mar 7 Sat	KSU	P(W) = 92% DAY GAME Senior Game
HOUSTON
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 16 Mon	@ISU	Lost
Feb 21 Sat	UA	Lost
Feb 23 Mon	@KU	Lost
Feb 28 Sat	CU	P(W) = 96%
Mar 3 Tue	BU	P(W) = 92%
Mar 7 Sat	@OKS	P(W) = 90%
ARIZONA
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 18 Wed	BYU	WON
Feb 21 Sat	@UH	WON
Feb 24 Tue	@BU	WON
Feb 28 Sat	KU	P(W) = 82%
Mar 2 Mon	ISU	P(W) = 71%
Mar 7 Sat	@CU	P(W) = 91%
IOWA STATE
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 16 Mon	UH	WON
Feb 21 Sat	@BYU	Lost
Feb 24 Tue	@UU	WON
Feb 28 Sat	TT	P(W) = 77%
Mar 2 Mon	@UA	P(W) = 29%
Mar 7 Sat	ASU	P(W) = 95%
TEXAS TECH
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 17 Tue	@ASU	Lost
Feb 21 Sat	KSU	WON
Feb 24 Tue	CIN	WON
Feb 28 Sat	@ISU	P(W) = 23%
Mar 3 Tue	TCU	P(W) = 85%
Feb 7 Sat	@BYU	P(W) = 36%

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6 days 18 hours ago #34698 by NotOstertag
At this point, you can divide the top 5 teams' schedules into "easy", "challenging" and "tough" based on who among them will play each other.

"Easy" road: Houston. All remaining games are against teams ranked 6 or lower.

"Challenging" road: KU and Tech. KU still has to play at AZ, and Tech has to play at ISU.

"Tough" road: AZ and ISU. AZ has KU and ISU left (both home games). ISU has Tech at home and AZ away.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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6 days 17 hours ago - 6 days 17 hours ago #34700 by konza63
Yep, that's how I'd rank it as well.

This is why I posted on that "plausible if improbable" scenario of the 4-way tie at the end (KU, Zona, Hou, ISU) - because just given the competition level, it wouldn't be a so-called "black swan" or wild card scenario for KU and ISU to beat Zona, then win their others - with Houston holding serve in its lesser games.

Stranger things have happened, "that's why they play the games," "on any given Sunday" (football analogy, but you get it), etc.

I would add a couple elements to that. First, while Zona has a great team, they've come down from their lofty stratosphere since we took them down as a then-undefeated, unblemished squad. And they've had some stumbles since then, including the loss to Tech (at home, interestingly) and the rock fight they encountered last night against a very middling Baylor team.

Secondly, they're still missing a key player - Koa Peat - their 6'8 forward, 5-star freshman and projected 1st-round pick who has been averaging 14.5 PPG, 5 RPG, and 3 APG. Notably, he hurt his lower leg in the 2/14 home loss vs. TT, sitting out the 2nd half, and hasn't been back since. Will he be back Saturday? Don't know, but if he isn't, that's a big hole in their attack - even if they've had 3 games since to work in the backup (which they did in a win at home against BYU, a super-impressive win at Houston, and the nail-biter win in Waco last night).

Thirdly and lastly, it bears noting that they haven't seen nor played against Darryn Peterson yet. He wasn't available for the game at AFH in which we upset them, missing it with flu-like symptoms. Will that give KU a further edge in what will be a raucous atmosphere and heavyweight fight in Tucson? Or will the still-incomplete integration of DP into the KU team (coming along, but still with some bumps and inefficiencies) actually swing it the other way, in Zone's favor?

All interesting angles and factors, along with the Iowa State dimension. While I would give KU a 48% chance of upsetting Zona at their place, thus advancing the improbable 4-way tie scenario one of two steps further, I have notably higher doubts about ISU knocking off the Cats on the road. Why? Because all of ISU's 4 league losses have come on the road: at KU, Cincy, TCU, and BYU. They've only managed to beat the bottom-feeders away from home: Baylor, KSU, OSU, and Utah. Doesn't bode well for them against a stacked Zona team playing in McKale.

Notwithstanding the ISU factor, hope springs eternal, yes? :-) I would add one final thought of note. In running the Big 12 tourney simulator last night, I noticed that, if you project chalk the rest of the way - with Houston winning out, KU and ISU losing at Zona, and Zona thus winning out, KU as the 3-seed in the league tourney still gets us the much-valued double-bye (not having to play till Thursday, along with the other top 4 seeds) ... AND we get a very favorable draw, IMHO, by being paired in the 3 vs. 2 with Houston while the 2 toughest challenges in KC (I would argue) - 1 Zona and 4 ISU - would be paired together at the top of the bracket.

In that scenario, if/if we could win our opening game and then beat Houston (assuming they also advance), it would be much nicer to only have to play either ISU or Zona instead of potentially both of them on a notional path to the championship game. Playing Zona 3 times, including just before the Dance? Yikes. And playing ISU in KC, where their fan base travels for their annual Super Bowl like an army of ants flocking to a tootsie roll dropped on the lawn? Yikes again.

Fun games and times ahead.

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
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6 days 13 hours ago #34702 by NotOstertag
I think your 48% chance of winning at AU is pretty much spot on. Clearly the most important game we have left, but as we learned vs. Cinci, we can't look past anyone. We can only control what we can control, so I'm hoping that having a healthy DP available in the mix is enough of a wrinkle to let us go steal one.

There were times this season where I'd put our odds around 2% of winning this game, so the fact that we're at almost a coin toss is a good thing.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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6 days 13 hours ago #34703 by konza63
Spot on, as always, amigo. And your closing point is particularly apt.

The guys have really evolved nicely, and Self and his assistants have done a heck of a job managing some weird challenges to hold it all together and win some notably big games.

I really like this team and where they are, and my enjoyment as a fan compared with the prior 2 seasons has been night and day different.

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
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6 days 10 hours ago - 4 days 10 hours ago #34704 by HawkErrant
Scenarios from MRed's Big 12 Tournament tiebreaker
LEGEND
RRR: round robin record
w%v1: winning % versus #1 Conference team(s)
TCB: Takes Care of Business (aka winning last 3 regular season games)

Note well - ISU fans flock to KC for the B12T, making them a very hard out no matter the year. I therefore prefer KU plays ISU as late as possible, and preferably set up in such a way that KU will not have to play both ISU and UA in a deep B12T run.

SCENARIO A "Chalk"
• KU loses @UA, wins @ASU, v KSU
• UA wins v KU, v ISU, @CU
• UH wins v CU, v BU, @OKS
• ISU wins v TTU, loses @UA, wins v ASU
• TTU loses @ISU, wins v TCU, @BYU
yields
SEEDS
1. UA  (16-2)
2. UH  (14-4)
3. KU  (13-5) =ISU, >TTU on RRR (2-1, 2-1, 1-2); >ISU on w%v1 [UA] (1-1=.500) >(0-1 =.000).
4. ISU (13-5) 
5. TTU (13-5) <KU, <ISU on RRR (1-2, 2-1, 2-1)
Results in a favorable 2-3 seeding for KU. Cannot see either of UA or ISU until the title game.

SCENARIO B "KU TCB, rest is Chalk"
• KU wins last 3 @UA, @ASU, v KSU
• UA loses v KU, wins v ISU, @CU
• UH wins v CU, v BU, @OKS
• ISU wins v TTU, loses @UA, wins v ASU
• TTU loses @ISU, wins v TCU, @BYU
yields
SEEDS
1. UA  (15-3)
2. KU  (14-4) >UH head-to-head wins (1-0).
3. UH  (14-4)
4. ISU (13-5) >TTU head-to-head wins (1-0).
5. TTU (13-5)
Results in a favorable 2-3 seeding for KU. Cannot see either of UA or ISU until the title game.

SCENARIO C "KU & ISU TCB, rest is Chalk" ➔ FOUR WAY TIE REGULAR SEASON CO-CHAMPIONS
• KU wins last 3 @UA, @ASU, v KSU
• UA loses v KU, v ISU, wins @CU
• UH wins v CU, v BU, @OKS
• ISU wins v TTU, @UA, v ASU
• TTU loses @ISU, wins v TCU, @BYU
yields
SEEDS
1. KU  (14-4) >ISU, UA and UH on RRR (4-1).
2. ISU (14-4) >UA , UH, <KU on RRR (3-1).
3. UA  (14-4) >UH, <KU, >ISU on RRR (1-3).
4. UH  (14-4) <KU, ISU, UA on RRR (0-3).
5. TTU (13-5)
Results in a 1 seeding for KU. Cannot see UA, ISU, BYU, WVU, UCF, CU, OKS or KSU until the title game.

SCENARIO D "KU, TT TCB; ISU ↓TT ↑UA; rest is Chalk" ➔ FOUR WAY TIE REGULAR SEASON CO-CHAMPIONS
• KU wins last 3 @UA, @ASU, v KSU
• UA loses v KU, v ISU, wins @CU
• UH wins v CU, v BU, @OKS
• ISU loses v TTU, wins @UA, v ASU
• TTU wins @ISU, v TCU, @BYU
yields
SEEDS
1. KU  (14-4) >TTU, UA, UH on RRR (4-0)
2. TTU (14-4) <KU, >UA, UH on RRR (2-2)
3. UA  (14-4) =UH, <KU, <TTU on RRR (1-3); >UH head-to-head (1-0)
4. UH  (14-4)
5. ISU (13-5)
Results in a 1 seeding for KU. Cannot see UA, TTU, BYU, WVU, UCF, CU, OKS or KSU until the title game.

Note: I was going to deep dive all the results, but maybe later. It is less work for the scenarios where KU is the 1 seed.-HE

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6 days 6 hours ago #34706 by konza63
Now this is what I call showing your math! :woohoo:

Quite literally…. Great stuff.

IMHO, scenarios A and B are most plausible, followed by C. D is a massive outlier. And the good news, as you point out, is KU fares very well in any of the 3 most plausible scenarios, WRT the most challenging foes (for KC) they’d have to face.

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2 days 4 hours ago #34737 by HawkErrant
This thread to be updated at the end of each B12 Conference game day thru the last regular season games on Saturday, March 7.
The Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday, March 10.


TOP 5 BIG 12 STANDINGS through
Tuesday 2026-02-28
TEAM		BIG 12  GB
Arizona		 14-2	-	
Texas Tech	 12-4	2.0	
Houston		 12-4	2.0
KANSAS		 11-5	3.0
Iowa State	 11-5	3.0
The remaining 11 programs do not have a realistic chance of ending up regular season conference champions.
These 5 are the contenders for that - or at least a Top 4 (Double Bye) B12T seed - as of 2026-02-28.


KANSAS is 3 games behind the leader and tied for fourth with ISU, who still has to play UA in Tucson next.

FEB 28 SAT
UA beat KU in Tucson
TT beat ISU in Ames
UH beat CU in Houston
UC beat OKS in Cincinnati
ASU beat UU in Tempe
WVU beat BYU in Morgantowm
TCU beat KSU in Manhattan
BU beat UCF in Orlando

KU is out of the running for at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title, and
KU does not even control it's destiny as far as earning a Top 4 B12T seed!
:unsure:

Why? Texas Tech winning in Ames threw a real monkey wrench in KU's hopes to get a Top 4 seed for the B12T.

Remember, there are no tiebreakers for the regular season crown.
Programs with the same final regular season Big 12 Conference record are co-champions.

Tiebreakers are solely for seeding in the Big 12 T, and UA only needs 1 more win to lock up the title and the 1 seed. If the top 5 teams play to chalk in their last 2 Big 12 games, KU will get the 3 seed in the B12T and get the double byes for both Tuesday and Wednesday Big 12 Tournament competition.

BUT - Tech winning v TCU and @BYU (BYU is favored, but currently on a 2 game L streak, but it will be their Senior Game, so really a toss up?) gets Tech the 2 seed and UH winning out (chalk) gets UH the 3 seed, leaving ISU and KU fighting for the 4 seed.
NOTE WELL - we all want to root for Arizona against Iowa State on Monday night, because if Tech wins its last 2 games and ISU wins it's last two games - at UA and then hosting ASU on Saturday - KU will end up the 5 seed.
See the SEEDING SCENARIOS at the end of this entry.


THE GAUNTLET
LAST 6 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR THE 5 LISTED PROGRAMS
MONDAY 2026-02-16 thru
SATURDAY 2026-03-07

P(W): Probability(Win) % are from ESPN Analytics as of this update

KANSAS
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 18 Wed	@OKS	WON
Feb 21 Sat	CIN	Lost
Feb 23 Mon	UH	WON
Feb 28 Sat	@UA	Lost (Biorhythms! I hate day games with this team!)
Mar 3 Tue	@ASU	P(W) = 78%
Mar 7 Sat	KSU	P(W) = 92% DAY GAME Senior Game
HOUSTON
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 16 Mon	@ISU	Lost
Feb 21 Sat	UA	Lost
Feb 23 Mon	@KU	Lost
Feb 28 Sat	CU	WON
Mar 3 Tue	BU	P(W) = 92%
Mar 7 Sat	@OKS	P(W) = 90%
ARIZONA
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 18 Wed	BYU	WON
Feb 21 Sat	@UH	WON
Feb 24 Tue	@BU	WON
Feb 28 Sat	KU	WON
Mar 2 Mon	ISU	P(W) = 73%
Mar 7 Sat	@CU	P(W) = 92%
IOWA STATE
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 16 Mon	UH	WON
Feb 21 Sat	@BYU	Lost
Feb 24 Tue	@UU	WON
Feb 28 Sat	TT	Lost
Mar 2 Mon	@UA	P(W) = 27%
Mar 7 Sat	ASU	P(W) = 95%
TEXAS TECH
DATE		OPP	RESULT
Feb 17 Tue	@ASU	Lost
Feb 21 Sat	KSU	WON
Feb 24 Tue	CIN	WON
Feb 28 Sat	@ISU	WON
Mar 3 Tue	TCU	P(W) = 85%
Feb 7 Sat	@BYU	P(W) = 41%

SEEDING SCENARIOS All the below assume KU wins its last two games.
All scenarios generated using mred's 2026 Big 12 MBB Tournament Tiebreaker
FYI and use the program also generates a B12T bracket using the projected results.

SEEDING SCENARIO A "CHALK"
KU wins @ASU, v KSU
UA wins v ISU, @CU
TT wins v TCU, loses @BYU
UH wins v BU, @OKS
ISU loses @UA, wins v ASU
1. Arizona (16 - 2)
2. Houston (14 - 4)
3. KANSAS (13 - 5) Above Texas Tech based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
4. Texas Tech (13 - 5) Below Kansas based on head-to-head wins (0-1).
5. Iowa St (12 - 6)
6. UCF (11 - 7)
7. BYU (10 - 8)
8. W Virginia (9 - 9) Above TCU and Cincinnati based on round-robin record (2-1).
9. TCU (9 - 9) Above Cincinnati and below W Virginia based on round-robin record (1-1).
10. Cincinnati (9 - 9) Below W Virginia and TCU based on round-robin record (1-2).
11. Colorado (7 - 11)
12. Baylor (6 - 12) Above Ariz St based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
13. Ariz St (6 - 12) Below Baylor based on head-to-head wins (0-1).
14. Okla St (5 - 13) 
15. Kansas St (2 - 16) Above Utah based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
16. Utah (2 - 16) Below Kansas St based on head-to-head wins (0-1).

SEEDING SCENARIO B "CHALK except TT wins @BYU"
KU wins @ASU, v KSU
UA wins v ISU, @CU
TT wins v TCU, @BYU
UH wins v BU, @OKS
ISU loses @UA, wins v ASU
1. Arizona (16 - 2)
2. Texas Tech (14 - 4) Above Houston based on winning percentage against #1 teams [Arizona] (1-0).
3. Houston (14 - 4) Below Texas Tech based on winning percentage against #1 teams [Arizona] (0-1).
4. KANSAS (13 - 5)
5. Iowa St (12 - 6)
6. UCF (11 - 7)
7. W Virginia (9 - 9) Above BYU, TCU, and Cincinnati based on round-robin record (3-1).
8. BYU (9 - 9) Above TCU and Cincinnati and below W Virginia based on round-robin record (2-1).
9. TCU (9 - 9) Above Cincinnati and below W Virginia and BYU based on round-robin record (1-2).
10. Cincinnati (9 - 9) Below W Virginia, BYU, and TCU based on round-robin record (1-3).
11. Colorado (7 - 11)
12. Baylor (6 - 12) Above Ariz St based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
13. Ariz St (6 - 12) Below Baylor based on head-to-head wins (0-1).
14. Okla St (5 - 13)
15. Kansas St (2 - 16) Above Utah based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
16. Utah (2 - 16) Below Kansas St based on head-to-head wins (0-1).

SEEDING SCENARIO C "CHALK except ISU wins @UA and TT wins @BYU"
KU wins @ASU, v KSU
UA loses v ISU, wins @CU
TT wins v TCU, @BYU
UH wins v BU, @OKS
ISU wins @UA, v ASU
1. Arizona (15 - 3)
2. Texas Tech (14 - 4) Above Houston based on winning percentage against #1 teams [Arizona] (1-0).
3. Houston (14 - 4) Below Texas Tech based on winning percentage against #1 teams [Arizona] (0-1).
4. Iowa St (13 - 5) Above Kansas based on winning percentage against #1 teams [Arizona] (1-0).
5. Kansas (13 - 5) Below Iowa St based on winning percentage against #1 teams [Arizona] (1-1).
6. UCF (11 - 7)
7. W Virginia (9 - 9) Above BYU, TCU, and Cincinnati based on round-robin record (3-1).
8. BYU (9 - 9) Above TCU and Cincinnati and below W Virginia based on round-robin record (2-1).
9. TCU (9 - 9) Above Cincinnati and below W Virginia and BYU based on round-robin record (1-2).
10. Cincinnati (9 - 9) Below W Virginia, BYU, and TCU based on round-robin record (1-3).
11. Colorado (7 - 11)
12. Baylor (6 - 12) Above Ariz St based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
13. Ariz St (6 - 12) Below Baylor based on head-to-head wins (0-1).
14. Okla St (5 - 13)
15. Kansas St (2 - 16) Above Utah based on head-to-head wins (1-0).
16. Utah (2 - 16) Below Kansas St based on head-to-head wins (0-1).

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1 day 20 hours ago #34739 by hoshi
Go AU beat ISU.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits”. Albert Einstein

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1 day 12 hours ago #34740 by HawkErrant
The bracket below represents the bracket if SCENARIO A “Chalk” comes to pass.


KANSAS ends up the 3 seed on the bracket bottom with 2 seed Houston.

And all of the games KANSAS could play in would be NIGHT GAMES (start after 5:00 PM)

UA, ISU and TT are all on the other side of the bracket.

IOW if KU can win its quarterfinal NIGHT GAME against one of WVU, Baylor or OK State, it would play
UH (most likely) or one of UCF, UC or UU in a NIGHT GAME SEMIFINAL.

And if KU advanced to the title game – well, I’d say they have a chance against any of most likely UA, ISU or TT in a NIGHT GAME in KC.

So, to hoshi’s desire to see UA beat ISU tonight (yes indeed, please!),
I would add let’s hope either TCU (Tuesday) or @BYU (Saturday) beat Tech!

Fingers crossed, Jayhawks fans!

There is a chance things just might break KU’s way – ASSUMING our Jayhawks win their last two games, of course!

LET’S GO JAYHAWKS!

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