Big XII projection, Round 13

Easy come, easy go.  Iowa State beat Kansas soundly, and Texas Tech pulled off the upset in Tucson,
allowing both teams to leapfrog Kansas in the projected standings, leaving Kansas back down in fifth
place.  Houston has taken over first place, but is facing a three-game gauntlet:  at Ames, Arizona,
and at the Dawg House in Lawrence.

Round 14 features one game on Big Monday, three games on Super Tuesday, three games on Wednesday, and
two teams with byes, the last byes of the conference season.

We are two-thirds of the way through the conference season, with most teams having played 12 of their
18 games.  Cincinnati and Colorado have played 13 games, but have their byes in this next round.

                      Init   Rd 6   Rd 7   Rd 8   Rd 9   Rd A   Rd B   Rd C   Rd D   
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  -----------------
#  4  Houston        12.402 14.429 13.785 14.100 14.168 14.404 14.978 15.168 15.178  11  1  Mon @ISU 68 70
#  3  Arizona        14.903 15.454 15.667 16.095 16.048 16.015 16.171 15.530 14.554  10  2  Wed  BYU 90 79
# 16  Texas Tech     10.530 12.348 12.842 12.814 12.153 11.526 11.937 12.149 13.100   9  3  Tue @ASU 83 77 rw
#  7  Iowa State     14.726 13.075 13.249 13.345 13.762 13.755 13.688 12.672 13.087   9  3  Mon  UH  70 68
# 15  Kansas         11.159 11.238 11.718 11.650 12.095 12.721 12.640 13.332 12.996   9  3  Wed @OSU 84 77 rw
# 22  BYU            12.702 12.175 12.130 11.789 11.215 10.338  9.714 10.189 10.206   7  5  Wed @UA  79 90
# 56  West Virginia   6.956  9.428  9.198  9.438  8.654  9.508  9.217  9.253 10.074   7  5  Wed  UU  73 64
# 50  TCU             7.460  7.596  8.512  8.187  7.299  7.322  7.547  8.518  9.135   6  6  Tue @UCF 77 80
# 52  UCF             8.560  9.143  9.850  9.998 10.893 10.597  9.893  9.892  9.066   6  6  Tue  TCU 80 77
# 51  Cincinnati      6.568  7.409  6.637  7.069  6.947  6.227  6.945  7.605  7.696   6  7  bye
# 73  Colorado        6.138  6.092  5.470  5.308  6.133  5.767  6.189  6.056  6.030   4  9  bye
# 62  Oklahoma State  6.461  6.086  5.874  5.891  6.550  7.383  7.226  6.620  6.024   4  8  Wed  KU  77 84 hl
# 45  Baylor          9.398  6.468  5.678  5.146  5.865  6.289  6.384  5.958  5.934   3  9  Tue @KSU 87 84 rw
# 71  Arizona State   6.341  4.722  5.442  5.356  5.297  5.845  5.468  5.892  5.886   4  8  Tue  TTU 77 83 hl
#101  Kansas State    6.219  4.465  4.082  3.885  3.659  3.649  3.354  2.632  2.609   1 11  Tue  BU  84 87 hl
#120  Utah            3.479  3.872  3.863  3.926  3.263  2.654  2.648  2.534  2.427   1 11  Wed @WVU 64 73

Kansas gained 0.99 in strength of schedule by playing in Ames.  We'll get a similar boost from playing
in Tucson.  Half of the conference now has double-digit values, and everybody is in the Top 75.

Rank  Big XII Team   Sched.
----  -------------- ------
#  3  Kansas         +15.76
#  5  Texas Tech     +14.40
#  6  Baylor         +13.34
# 16  Arizona State  +12.00
# 20  BYU            +11.28
# 23  Kansas State   +11.12
# 25  Arizona        +10.83
# 37  Utah           +10.09
# 46  UCF             +9.50
# 47  Colorado        +9.41
# 55  Houston         +9.03
# 56  TCU             +8.84
# 57  Oklahoma State  +8.81
# 58  Cincinnati      +8.54
# 60  Iowa State      +8.37
# 75  West Virginia   +6.60

For the Round 12 update, I had updated the total number of road wins, but not the total number of
games, which should have been 90 instead of 83, so we were only two road wins ahead of the long-term
one-in-three trend.  Although no road wins had been projected for Round 13, three occurred, including
Tech's stunning win in Tucson, leaving us three road wins ahead of the trend.  Three more road wins
are projected for Round 14, with one of them being a one-possession affair.

Road wins (35 out of  97)                     Home losses                                     RW-HL
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------- -------
5 Arizona      UU  TCU UCF BYU ASU            0 Houston                                      +5 UH 
5 Houston      UC  BU  TCU BYU UU             0 Iowa St.                                     +4 UA 
4 Texas Tech   CU  BU  WVU UA                 0 Kansas                                       +3 ISU
3 Iowa St.     BU  OSU KSU                    1 Arizona      TTU                             +3 KU
3 Kansas       CU  KSU TTU                    1 Texas Tech   KU                              +3 TTU
3 W. Virginia  ASU UC  UCF                    2 BYU          UA  UH                          +1 WVU
2 Baylor       OSU WVU                        2 UCF          UA  WVU                          0 BYU
2 BYU          KSU UU                         2 Cincinnati   UH  WVU                          0 UCF
2 UCF          KSU CU                         2 TCU          UA  UH                           0 TCU
2 TCU          BU  OSU                        2 W. Virginia  BU  TTU                         -1 UC 
1 Arizona St.  UU                             3 Arizona St.  CU  WVU UA                      -2 ASU
1 Cincinnati   KSU                            3 Colorado     TTU KU  UCF                     -2 BU
1 Colorado     ASU                            3 Oklahoma St. BU  ISU TCU                     -2 CU
1 Oklahoma St. UU                             4 Baylor       ISU UH  TTU TCU                 -2 OSU
0 Kansas St.                                  5 Kansas St.   BYU UCF KU  ISU UC              -5 KSU
0 Utah                                        5 Utah         UA  BYU OSU ASU UH              -5 UU