predictions for Iowa State game

To play or not to play, that is the question.  Whether 'tis nobler in the mind
to suffer the slings and arrows of cramps, hamstrings, rolled ankles. and the
flu, or to take arms against a sea of frustrated fans, and by opposing silence
them.

Sorry for waxing poetic.  Ask me about the Col. Jessup monologue sometime!

Almost nobody is picking Kansas to win.  Yeah, Dunkel is picking the upset,
expecting Kansas to win by 3 points, but that's Dunkel, one of the least
reliable of the prognosticators.  The most pessimistic is the common opponent
comparison, which favors Iowa State by 11.  The average favors Iowa State by
5.5 points, with a scatter of 3.1 points.  That's a bit larger margin than
for the Arizona game, for which Kansas needed every bit of the Allen Field
House crowd to pull out the win.  The Jayhawks won't have that in Hilton.

Kansas has a positive trend, but it's not statistically significant.  Kansas
has a negative mental toughness rating, which is also not significiant, but
taken at face value offsets the trend advantage.  Together they cost the
Jayhawks about a quarter of a point.  Iowa State has a negative trend with
moderate significance, and a negative mental toughness rating, which actually
helps a bit against weaker opponents, which according to the power ratings
Kansas is, relative to Iowa State.  Combined, the Cyclones lose about two and
three quarters of a point relatve to the nominal prediction.  So the Cyclones
have a 4.4 point advantage relative to Kansas.

Iowa State is, of course, coming off of a stunning loss to TCU, and there is
the old saying about how a wounded animal is the most dangerous.  Or maybe
a key player was under the weather and just didn't have the usual energy.
Such bugs can be contagious, so other players might be at less than 100 percent.
Kansas could benefit from such a scenario.  But the big wild card is, as you
can well imagine, Peterson.  Allegedly with flu-like symptoms for the Arizona
game and unable to go.  Self has been defending him.  Okay, let's take him at
his word and look at the silver linings.  Peterson's earlier absences gave
the bench more playing time that will benefit the Jayhawks later in the season.
And as Peterson recovers from this bout of the flu, he'll develop some immunity
to the bug, so he should be good for the entirety of March Madness.

Or not.

Such has been life with Peterson.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      ISU     KU      Defensive Stats      ISU     KU
Points/Game         84.6    78.0     Opp Points/Game     64.9    67.8
Avg Score Margin   +19.8   +10.3     Opp Effective FG %  48.5    44.7
Assists/Game        18.5    15.0     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.4     8.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.7    39.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.2    27.8
Effective FG %      58.3    53.9     Blocks/Game          3.0     6.2
Off Rebound %       35.2    27.2     Steals/Game          9.1     5.5
FTA/FGA            0.354   0.338     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.5    14.3
Turnover %          13.6    13.2   

My Stats Comparison        KU              ISU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.85           +3.08    
inconsistency          9.61           12.52    
trend                 +0.13 ± 0.29    -0.44 ± 0.37
mental toughness      -0.21 ± 0.23    -0.22 ± 0.22         
average total pts     146.12          149.50 

Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, one non-conference and six conference, one of
which Iowa State has played twice, plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us
nine scores to compare:

KU  +11 Syr neutral (+11 neutral court)
ISU +31 Syr neutral (+31 neutral court)
KU  -24 ISU on road (-20 neutral court)

KU  -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court)
ISU +21 WVU at home (+17 neutral court)
KU  -28 ISU on road (-24 neutral court)

KU  +18 BU  at home (+14 neutral court)     KU  +18 BU  at home (+14 neutral court)
ISU +10 BU  on road (+14 neutral court)     ISU  +3 BU  at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU   -4 ISU on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU  +11 ISU on road (+15 neutral court)

KU   -6 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
ISU +30 UCF at home (+26 neutral court)
KU  -32 ISU on road (-28 neutral court)

KU   +6 CU  on road (+10 neutral court)
ISU +30 CU  at home (+26 neutral court)
KU  -20 ISU on road (-16 neutral court)

KU  +24 KSU on road (+28 neutral court)
ISU +34 KSU on road (+38 neutral court)
KU  -14 ISU on road (-10 neutral court)

KU   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral court)
ISU  -7 TCU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU   -1 ISU on road ( +3 neutral court)

KU  +21 ISU at home (+17 neutral court)
KU  +13 ISU on road (+17 neutral court)

Seven of the comparisons favor Iowa State, while only two favor Kansas, but the
most important comparison, namely the head-to-head, is one of those two.  The
average favors Iowa State by 11.0 points, with a scatter of 16.6 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Joshua Jefferson (forward)
most points        Milan Momcilovic (forward)
most rebounds      Joshua Jefferson (forward)
most assists       Tamin Lipsey (guard)
most steals        Tamin Lipsey (guard)
most blocks        Blake Buchanan (forward)
most turnovers     Joshua Jefferson (forward)
most fouls         Blake Buchanan (forward)

Reserve forward Xzavion Mitchell is out for an extended period of time; he
averages less than 3 minutes per game and scores just 1 point per game, so
not a major loss to the Cyclones.

                                                          19-5           21-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Iowa State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -5.00   69   74       32       # 12   #  5    #  8   # 37
Pomeroy                 -5.69   70   75       29.5     # 11   #  3    #  7   # 61
Greenfield              -7.00   70   77                # 13   #  8    #  6   # 20
Dunkel                  +3.00   74   71       33.3     # 16           #  6
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -6.50   70   76                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -4.89   70   74       33.4     # 13   #  5    #  7   # 20
DPPI                    -7.70   68.5 76       29.4     # 12   #  1    #  5   # 70 
ESPN Bet/BPI            -6.50   70   76.5              # 13   #  3    #  6   # 61
Whitlock                -6.20                          # 12   #  4    #  4   # 60
Colley Matrix           -1.44                          #  6   #  2    # 15   # 73 
Donchess                -7.00   69   76       27.3     # 13   #  3    # 10   # 63
Haslametrics            -6.69   67   74                # 17           #  7
INCCStats               -5.00   70   75       33.3     # 12           #  8
common opponents       -11.00
trend and mental        -4.44
NCAA NET                                               # 13           #  9
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 13           #  5
Pomeroy offense                                        # 41           # 17
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           #  5
Pomeroy tempo                                          #190           #189
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -5.47   69.8 75.0     31.2 
scatter                  3.10    1.7  1.7      2.4

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #217 Green Bay                   94  51   +23.50   +19.50
AWAY   # 28 North Carolina              74  87    +0.67   -13.67
HOME   #193 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +23.31    +7.69
HOME   #241 Princeton                   76  57   +25.10    -6.10
NEUT   #  3 Duke                        66  78    -5.00    -7.00
NEUT   # 82 Notre Dame                  71  61   +11.78    -1.78
NEUT   # 68 Syracuse                    71  60   +10.99    +0.01
NEUT   # 18 Tennessee                   81  76    +1.50    +3.50
HOME   #  8 Connecticut                 56  61    +2.16    -7.16
NEUT   # 52 Missouri                    80  69    +8.45    +2.55
AWAY   # 26 N.C. State                  77  76    +0.63    +0.37
HOME   #169 Towson                      73  49   +21.33    +2.67
HOME   #106 Davidson                    90  61   +16.96   +12.04
AWAY   # 49 UCF                         75  81    +4.93   -10.93
HOME   # 53 TCU                        104 100   +12.29    -8.29
AWAY   # 61 West Virginia               75  86    +5.74   -16.74
HOME   #  7 Iowa St.                    84  63    +1.31   +19.69
HOME   # 44 Baylor                      80  62   +10.77    +7.23
AWAY   # 78 Colorado                    75  69    +8.31    -2.31
AWAY   #105 Kansas St.                  86  62   +11.54   +12.46
HOME   # 21 BYU                         90  82    +5.58    +2.42
AWAY   # 16 Texas Tech                  64  61    -2.10    +5.10
HOME   #125 Utah                        71  59   +19.59    -7.59
HOME   #  2 Arizona                     82  78    -2.77    +6.77
AWAY   #  7 Iowa St.                    70  75    -5.69             0.295
AWAY   # 64 Oklahoma St.                84  76    +7.45             0.759
HOME   # 51 Cincinnati                  75  63   +11.98             0.871
HOME   #  4 Houston                     68  69    -0.10             0.496
AWAY   #  2 Arizona                     72  82    -9.77             0.178
AWAY   # 69 Arizona St.                 81  73    +7.67             0.766
HOME   #105 Kansas St.                  89  70   +18.54             0.960

Here is Iowa State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #327 Fairleigh Dickinson         88  50   +33.34    +4.66
HOME   #271 Grambling St.              102  62   +30.28    +9.72
NEUT   # 90 Mississippi St.             96  80   +15.62    +0.38
HOME   #339 Stonehill                   96  57   +35.35    +3.65
NEUT   # 22 St. John's                  83  82    +4.50    -3.50
NEUT   # 76 Creighton                   78  60   +13.44    +4.56
NEUT   # 68 Syracuse                    95  64   +13.21   +17.79
HOME   #346 Alcorn St.                 132  68   +36.93   +27.07
AWAY   #  9 Purdue                      81  58    -2.66   +25.66
HOME   # 23 Iowa                        66  62    +8.14    -4.14
HOME   #325 Eastern Illinois            78  53   +33.55    -8.55
HOME   #232 Long Beach St.              91  60   +28.36    +2.64
HOME   #299 Houston Christian           89  61   +30.63    -2.63
HOME   # 61 West Virginia               80  59   +14.77    +6.23
AWAY   # 44 Baylor                      70  60    +5.99    +4.01
HOME   # 64 Oklahoma St.                83  71   +16.82    -4.82
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                      63  84    -1.31   -19.69
AWAY   # 51 Cincinnati                  70  79    +7.20   -16.20
HOME   # 49 UCF                         87  57   +14.18   +15.82
AWAY   # 64 Oklahoma St.                84  71    +9.82    +3.18
HOME   # 78 Colorado                    97  67   +17.54   +12.46
AWAY   #105 Kansas St.                  95  61   +13.87   +20.13
HOME   # 44 Baylor                      72  69   +12.99    -9.99
AWAY   # 53 TCU                         55  62    +7.50   -14.50
HOME   # 11 Kansas                      75  70    +5.69             0.705
HOME   #  4 Houston                     70  68    +1.95             0.573
AWAY   # 21 BYU                         81  80    +0.87             0.533
AWAY   #125 Utah                        83  69   +14.79             0.919
HOME   # 16 Texas Tech                  79  72    +7.11             0.749
AWAY   #  2 Arizona                     74  81    -7.45             0.241
HOME   # 69 Arizona St.                 86  69   +16.93             0.945