predictions for West Virginia game

A lot riding on this week's games.  In conference road games, West Virginia
played below expectation against Kansas State, TCU,  and Texas Tech, while
playing right about at expectation against Oklahoma, and a little above
expectation against Iowa State.  Perhaps that bodes well for Kansas.  There
is also the question of whether Jonathan Holton's suspension will last for
the entire game today.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 2.4 point margin, with a 59.0 percent probability
of winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 148.3 points
per game, that suggests a final score of Kansas 75, West Virginia 73.
Kansas has been playing 0.6 points above expectation, but West Virginia
has been playing 1.6 points above expectation, which means that the margin
for Kansas could be just 1.5 points.  The Jayhawks still have a negative
trend, but now it's not statistically significant, while West Virginia has
a strongly negative trend.  Both teams have negative mental toughness ratings,
though West Virginia's is nearly three times larger.  Taken at face value, the
margin for Kansas would increase to 4.3 points.  Both teams have comparable
inconsistencies, with the Mountaineers being just a hair better.  The Jayhawks
have played 6 out of 22 Division I games below expectation by more than 2.4
points, which would be enough to lose today's game, but only 2 of those were
at home (Harvard and TCU).  That corresponds to just a 27 percent chance of
losing today's game.  Meanwhile, West Virginia has played 10 out of 23 games
above expectation by more than 2.4 points, but just 3 of those came on the
road (Marshall, Virginia Tech, and Iowa State).  That corresponds to a
43.3 percent chance of winning today's game.  Those average to a 35.4 percent
chance of Kansas losing, a fair bit better odds than the Sagarin ratings
would suggest.

Massey gives Kansas a 4.0 point margin, with a 64 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 78, West Virginia 74.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 3.6 units, but West
Virginia has the better adjusted defense by 3.9 units, which combine to a
0.3 units advantage for West Virginia.  With an average of 71.2 possessions
per game, the margin for the Mountaineers works out to 0.2 points on a neutral
court.  Add Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage, and the margin becomes
3.1 points in favor of Kansas.  The ratings suggest a final score of Kansas 75,
West Virginia 72.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 7.0 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 79 to 72.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in four of eight categories, namely points per game, assists per game, effective
field goal percentage, and turnover percentage.  Among the key defensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in four of seven categories; West Virginia holds
opponents to fewer points per game, grabs more offensive rebounds per game,
and gets more steals per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 4.5 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 7.0 points, so he is picking West Virginia against the spread.  With a total
points projection of 142, the implied final score is Kansas 73, West Virginia 69.
Meanwhile, he claims the Vegas total is 149.5, which would imply a final score
of Kansas 78, West Virginia 71.  Dunkel's rankings page is broken; I've left
the ranking for Kansas from last time intact, but can't look up the current
ranking for West Virginia.

Real Time gives Kansas a whopping 11.0 point margin with a final score of 84
to 73.  The probability of winning the game is given as 69.4 percent.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 2.0 point margin, with a 56.8 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 75, West Virginia 73.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 0.5 units in favor of West Virginia, but we
need to calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling factor
of 0.726 just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick with that
value for consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas a 0.3 point underdog on a
neutral court, but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage,
Kansas becomes the favorite by 3.0 points.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 2.0 points in favor of
West Virginia on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court
advantage, and Kansas has a 1.3 point margin.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 5.0 point margin, corresponding to a 67 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 77 to 72.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 2.6 point margin.

DPPI gives Kansas a 4.2 point margin.

There are nine common opponents, eight from the conference plus San Diego
State, one of which West Virginia has played twice (Kansas State), and one
of which Kansas has played twice (TCU), plus the head-to-head in Morgantown,
giving us 12 scores to compare:

KU  +13 SDS on road (+17 neutral)
WV  +22 SDS neutral (+22 neutral)
KU   -1 WV  at home ( -5 neutral)

KU  +18 KSU at home (+14 neutral)     KU  +18 KSU at home (+14 neutral)
WV   +4 KSU on road ( +8 neutral)     WV  +15 KSU at home (+11 neutral)
KU  +10 WV  at home ( +6 neutral)     KU   +7 WV  at home ( +3 neutral)

KU   +7 TCU at home ( +3 neutral)     KU  +19 TCU on road (+23 neutral)
WV   +8 TCU on road (+12 neutral)     WV   +8 TCU on road (+12 neutral)
KU   -5 WV  at home ( -9 neutral)     KU  +15 WV  at home (+11 neutral)

KU  -19 OSU on road (-15 neutral)
WV  +17 OSU at home (+13 neutral)
KU  -24 WV  at home (-28 neutral)

KU   +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral)
WV   -2 OU  on road ( +2 neutral)
KU   +1 WV  at home ( -3 neutral)

KU   +9 UT  at home ( +5 neutral)
WV   -7 UT  at home (-11 neutral)
KU  +20 WV  at home (+16 neutral)

KU  +10 TT  on road (+14 neutral)
WV   +4 TT  on road ( +8 neutral)
KU  +10 WV  at home ( +6 neutral)

KU  -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral)
WV   +5 ISU on road (+11 neutral)
KU  -16 WV  at home (-20 neutral)

KU  +28 BU  at home (+24 neutral)
WV  +11 BU  at home ( +7 neutral)
KU  +21 WV  at home (+17 neutral)

KU  -11 WV  on road ( -7 neutral)
KU   -3 WV  at home ( -7 neutral)

Seven of the comparisons favor Kansas, while five favor West Virginia.  The
average is 2.9 points in favor of Kansas.

Players to watch:  Guard Jevon Carter plays the most minutes, dishes the most
assists, and gets the most steals.  Guard Jaysean Paige is their leading scorer,
but also commits the most personal fouls.  Forward Devin Williams is their
leading rebounder, but he also commits the most turnovers.  Forward Jonathan
Holton has been suspended for an indefinite amount of time, which leaves open
the possibility that the suspension will end sometime during today's game.  He
plays the fourth-most minutes, scores the fifth-most points, and grabs the
second-most rebounds, so he's not insignficant.

The average of the various prognostications is 4.1 points in favor of Kansas.  The
projected final score would be Kansas 76, West Virginia 72.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  9   #  7   #  5   #  7   # 10   +0.6   10.8   -0.30 +/- 0.36   -0.17 +/- 0.22
West Virginia  #  6   # 19   #  4   # 10   # 11   +1.6   10.5   -0.57 +/- 0.31   -0.48 +/- 0.18
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         # 10  # 11   # 10   # 13   #  5  #  5    # 21    #  6   # 14   #  6   # 10
West Virginia  #  7  #  7   #  7   # 17   #  6  #  7    #  -    # 10   # 43   # 10   # 39
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  8   #  7   #  8   #  7   #  6   #  5   #  9   1.001   19-4     #  5  # 17
West Virginia  #  7   #  8   #  3   #  8   # 10   #  4   #  6   1.002   19-4     #  1  # 23
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  6  #  9    #  7  # 32    # 17  # 58    # 14  # 20    # 13  # 10    #  4  #  6
West Virginia  #  9  # 28    #  4  # 17    #  7  # 40    #  5  # 30    # 21  # 42    #  1  # 11

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #320 Northern Colorado          109  72   +33.88    +3.12
NEUT   #  1 Michigan State              73  79    -1.32    -4.68
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 58 UCLA                        92  73    +9.60    +9.40
NEUT   # 20 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +3.34    +3.66
HOME   #269 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +28.89    +4.11
HOME   #167 Harvard                     75  69   +22.30   -16.30
HOME   #305 Holy Cross                  92  59   +32.63    +0.37
HOME   # 76 Oregon State                82  67   +14.23    +0.77
HOME   #172 Montana                     88  46   +22.80   +19.20
AWAY   # 64 San Diego State             70  57    +6.74    +6.26
HOME   # 99 UC Irvine                   78  53   +16.32    +8.68
HOME   # 32 Baylor                     102  74    +8.59   +19.41
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma                   109 106    +3.42    -0.42
AWAY   # 57 Texas Tech                  69  59    +6.14    +3.86
AWAY   #  4 West Virginia               63  74    -4.21    -6.79
HOME   #117 TCU                         70  63   +18.90   -11.90
AWAY   # 71 Oklahoma State              67  86    +7.35   -26.35
HOME   # 31 Texas                       76  67    +8.41    +0.59
AWAY   # 21 Iowa State                  72  85    +0.23   -13.23
HOME   # 19 Kentucky                    90  84    +6.26    -0.26
HOME   # 44 Kansas State                77  59   +11.00    +7.00
AWAY   #117 TCU                         75  56   +12.26    +6.74
HOME   #  4 West Virginia                         +2.43             0.590
AWAY   #  6 Oklahoma                              -3.22             0.369
HOME   # 71 Oklahoma State                       +13.99             0.906
AWAY   # 44 Kansas State                          +4.36             0.677
AWAY   # 32 Baylor                                +1.95             0.572
HOME   # 57 Texas Tech                           +12.78             0.928
AWAY   # 31 Texas                                 +1.77             0.566
HOME   # 21 Iowa State                            +6.87             0.759

Here is West Virginia's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #231 Northern Kentucky          107  61   +27.70   +18.30
HOME   # 91 James Madison               86  73   +16.68    -3.68
HOME   #315 Stetson                    103  62   +34.28    +6.72
HOME   #312 Bethune-Cookman             97  44   +34.09   +18.91
NEUT   # 86 Richmond                    67  59   +13.19    -5.19
NEUT   # 64 San Diego State             72  50   +10.95   +11.05
HOME   #298 Kennesaw State              87  54   +33.03    -0.03
NEUT   # 10 Virginia                    54  70    +1.50   -17.50
HOME   #174 Louisiana-Monroe           100  58   +23.73   +18.27
AWAY   #147 Marshall                    86  68   +15.22    +2.78
HOME   #206 Eastern Kentucky            84  59   +25.99    -0.99
AWAY   #100 Virginia Tech               88  63   +10.73   +14.27
AWAY   # 44 Kansas State                87  83    +5.25    -1.25
AWAY   #117 TCU                         95  87   +13.15    -5.15
HOME   # 71 Oklahoma State              77  60   +14.88    +2.12
HOME   #  5 Kansas                      74  63    +4.21    +6.79
AWAY   #  6 Oklahoma                    68  70    -2.33    +0.33
HOME   # 31 Texas                       49  56    +9.30   -16.30
AWAY   # 57 Texas Tech                  80  76    +7.03    -3.03
HOME   # 44 Kansas State                70  55   +11.89    +3.11
AWAY   # 24 Florida                     71  88    +1.68   -18.68
AWAY   # 21 Iowa State                  81  76    +1.12    +3.88
HOME   # 32 Baylor                      80  69    +9.48    +1.52
AWAY   #  5 Kansas                                -2.43             0.410
HOME   #117 TCU                                  +19.79             0.977
AWAY   # 31 Texas                                 +2.66             0.600
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma                              +4.31             0.676
HOME   # 21 Iowa State                            +7.76             0.791
AWAY   # 71 Oklahoma State                        +8.24             0.784
HOME   # 57 Texas Tech                           +13.67             0.945
AWAY   # 32 Baylor                                +2.84             0.605