Big XII projection, Round 12

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asteroid
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3 days 8 hours ago #34541 by asteroid

The stunning Peterson-less win over Arizona, coupled with Iowa State's shocking loss to TCU propelled
Kansas into third place.  However, unless Kansas can pull off the upset in Ames, it will be a case of
easy come, easy go.  BYU ended its free-fall in Waco, thereby denying Baylor any hope of a winning
conference record.  UCF's bye allowed BYU to leapfrog the Knights in the projected standings.

Round 13 features six games on Saturday, one game on Sunday, one team with a non-conference game on
Saturday (Louisville at Baylor in Fort Worth), which leaves one team with an uncharacteristic weekend
bye (Arizona State).  [N.B. All previous byes have been on weekdays.]

                      Init  Rd 5   Rd 6   Rd 7   Rd 8   Rd 9   Rd A   Rd B   Rd C   
                      Proj  Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins  Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game
----  -------------- ------------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  -----------------
#  2  Arizona        14.90315.268 15.454 15.667 16.095 16.048 16.015 16.171 15.530  10  1  Sat  TTU 86 74
#  4  Houston        12.40214.471 14.429 13.785 14.100 14.168 14.404 14.978 15.168  10  1  Sat  KSU 86 65
# 12  Kansas         11.15910.996 11.238 11.718 11.650 12.095 12.721 12.640 13.332   9  2  Sat @ISU 69 75
#  7  Iowa State     14.72612.768 13.075 13.249 13.345 13.762 13.755 13.688 12.672   8  3  Sat  KU  75 69
# 17  Texas Tech     10.53011.503 12.348 12.842 12.814 12.153 11.526 11.937 12.149   8  3  Sat @UA  74 86
# 21  BYU            12.70212.260 12.175 12.130 11.789 11.215 10.338  9.714 10.189   6  5  Sat  CU  92 79
# 49  UCF             8.560 9.595  9.143  9.850  9.998 10.893 10.597  9.893  9.892   6  5  Sat  WVU 74 68
# 61  West Virginia   6.956 8.476  9.428  9.198  9.438  8.654  9.508  9.217  9.253   6  5  Sat @UCF 68 74
# 53  TCU             7.460 7.395  7.596  8.512  8.187  7.299  7.322  7.547  8.518   5  6  Sat @OSU 78 80
# 51  Cincinnati      6.568 7.570  7.409  6.637  7.069  6.947  6.227  6.945  7.605   5  7  Sun  UU  78 66
# 64  Oklahoma State  6.461 6.278  6.086  5.874  5.891  6.550  7.383  7.226  6.620   4  7  Sat  TCU 80 78
# 77  Colorado        6.138 6.258  6.092  5.470  5.308  6.133  5.767  6.189  6.056   4  8  Sat @BYU 79 92
# 44  Baylor          9.398 7.325  6.468  5.678  5.146  5.865  6.289  6.384  5.958   3  9  Sat  non-con
# 70  Arizona State   6.341 5.549  4.722  5.442  5.356  5.297  5.845  5.468  5.892   4  8  bye
#105  Kansas State    6.219 4.318  4.465  4.082  3.885  3.659  3.649  3.354  2.632   1 10  Sat @UH  65 86
#124  Utah            3.479 3.972  3.872  3.863  3.926  3.263  2.654  2.648  2.534   1 10  Sun @UC  66 78

Arizona joined the ranks oF teams with strengths of schedule in the double digits.  That's a credit
to playing in Allen Field House (a.k.a The Dawg House].  I'm surprised at how low Iowa State is ranked.

Rank  Big XII Team   Sched.
----  -------------- ------
#  3  Kansas         +14.77
#  6  Texas Tech     +13.09
# 10  Baylor         +12.47
# 17  Arizona State  +11.72
# 20  BYU            +11.10
# 29  Arizona        +10.02
# 34  Kansas State    +9.87
# 39  UCF             +9.54
# 47  Utah            +9.26
# 48  Houston         +9.19
# 52  Cincinnati      +9.01
# 56  Oklahoma State  +8.47
# 59  Colorado        +8.25
# 60  TCU             +8.00
# 61  Iowa State      +7.53
# 79  West Virginia   +5.61

Now we're four road wins ahead of the long-term one-in-three trend, but there are no road wins
projected for Round 13.  But let's get one in Ames anyway.

Road wins (32 out of  83)                     Home losses                                     RW-HL
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------- -------
5 Arizona      UU  TCU UCF BYU ASU            0 Arizona                                      +5 UA 
5 Houston      UC  BU  TCU BYU UU             0 Houston                                      +5 UH 
3 Iowa St.     BU  OSU KSU                    0 Iowa St.                                     +3 ISU
3 Kansas       CU  KSU TTU                    0 Kansas                                       +3 KU
3 Texas Tech   CU  BU  WVU                    1 UCF          UA                              +2 TTU
2 Baylor       OSU WVU                        1 Texas Tech   KU                              +1 UCF
2 BYU          KSU UU                         2 BYU          UA  UH                           0 BYU
2 UCF          KSU CU                         2 Cincinnati   UH  WVU                          0 WVU
2 W. Virginia  ASU UC                         2 Oklahoma St. BU  ISU                         -1 UC 
1 Arizona St.  UU                             2 TCU          UA  UH                          -1 OSU
1 Cincinnati   KSU                            2 W. Virginia  BU  TTU                         -1 TCU
1 Colorado     ASU                            3 Arizona St.  CU  WVU UA                      -2 ASU
1 Oklahoma St. UU                             3 Colorado     TTU KU  UCF                     -2 BU
1 TCU          BU                             4 Baylor       ISU UH  TTU TCU                 -2 CU
0 Kansas St.                                  5 Kansas St.   BYU UCF KU  ISU UC              -5 KSU
0 Utah                                        5 Utah         UA  BYU OSU ASU UH              -5 UU

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konza63
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c'85 Towering toward the Blue

3 days 4 hours ago #34543 by konza63

“…there are no road wins projected for Round 13. But let's get one in Ames anyway.”

Yes, Let’s!

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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NotOstertag
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2 days 23 hours ago #34548 by NotOstertag

We did run them out of the gym last time (with DP playing). While they were having a bad day, and the game was in Lawrence and those two things won't combine again on Saturday, it should boost our confidence heading into the game.

Of course the counter-argument is that ISU will be doubly motivated to avenge their embarrassing loss in Lawrence and bounce back from a game they should have won this week.

I'm thinking I'll probably tune in and see what happens.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot

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HawkErrant
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b82, g84 Lift the chorus...

2 days 10 hours ago #34558 by HawkErrant

NotOstertag wrote: We did run them out of the gym last time (with DP playing). While they were having a bad day, and the game was in Lawrence and those two things won't combine again on Saturday, it should boost our confidence heading into the game.

Of course the counter-argument is that ISU will be doubly motivated to avenge their embarrassing loss in Lawrence and bounce back from a game they should have won this week.

I'm thinking I'll probably tune in and see what happens.

Excellent idea, NotO!
I may have to join you!

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