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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Arizona game
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1 week 5 days ago #34506
by asteroid
Arizona in Allen Field House. It's couture.
Oh snap. Kansas isn't favored in the game.
According to ESPN's BPI, Arizona has the toughest remaining schedule in the all of
Division I. In other words, one of the reasons why the Wildcats are undefeated is
because their schedule is backloaded. Incidentally, the Big XII team with the
easiest remaining schedule is Cincinnati; the Bearcats' schedule was frontloaded.
Arizona is a very consistent team, not quite as consistent as Utah, but a couple
points better than Kansas. The Wildcats have already played four games "better
than they are" and only one "worse than they are". Statistically speaking, chances
are they'll play only one more "better than they are" game and four more "worse than
they are" games, which means it's more likely they'll play worse than they are against
Kansas than better than they are. Lucky Kansas.
Nobody is picking Kansas to win. The DPPI is the most favorable, with Kansas losing
by a fraction of a point, while the common opponent comparison is the least favorable,
with Kansas losing by almost 10 points. Second worst prediction is Dunkel, expecting
Kansas to lose by 7.5 points, followed by Donchess at 7.0 points, and then the trend
and mental toughness ratings at 6.5 points. The average is 3.75 points in favor of
Arizona, with a scatter of 2.64 points. Close to a one-possession affair.
Encouraging to see Peterson play the most minutes of any Jayhawk against Utah.
Hopefully Elmarko will be back, as his defense could be crucial. Not only is
Arizona loaded, everyone appears to be healthy and available.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats UA KU Defensive Stats UA KU
Points/Game 89.3 77.8 Opp Points/Game 67.6 67.3
Avg Score Margin +21.7 +10.5 Opp Effective FG % 44.6 44.5
Assists/Game 18.2 15.2 Off Rebounds/Gm 12.0 8.0
Total Rebounds/Gm 43.9 38.9 Def Rebounds/Gm 29.1 28.1
Effective FG % 56.3 54.4 Blocks/Game 4.5 6.1
Off Rebound % 39.9 26.7 Steals/Game 8.5 5.3
FTA/FGA 0.433 0.337 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.3 14.3
Turnover % 13.3 13.2
My Stats Comparison KU UA
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.02 +1.41
inconsistency 9.84 7.83
trend +0.08 ± 0.32 +0.16 ± 0.25
mental toughness -0.27 ± 0.24 +0.18 ± 0.14
average total pts 145.52 156.87
Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, one non-conference and six conference:
KU -5 Con at home ( -9 neutral court)
UA +4 Con on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU -13 UA at home (-17 neutral court)
KU +12 UU at home ( +8 neutral court)
UA +19 UU on road (+23 neutral court)
KU -11 UA at home (-15 neutral court)
KU +24 KSU on road (+28 neutral court)
UA +25 KSU at home (+21 neutral court)
KU +11 UA at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU +4 TCU at home ( 0 neutral court)
UA +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)
KU -13 UA at home (-17 neutral court)
KU -6 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
UA +7 UCF on road (+11 neutral court)
KU -9 UA at home (-13 neutral court)
KU -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court)
UA +35 WVU at home (+31 neutral court)
KU -34 UA at home (-38 neutral court)
KU +8 BYU at home ( +4 neutral court)
UA +3 BYU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU +1 UA at home ( -3 neutral court)
Two of the comparisons favor Kansas, but five favor Arizona, and by as much
as 34 points. (Ouch!) The average favors Arizona by 9.7 points, with a
scatter of 13.9 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Jaden Bradley (guard)
most points Brayden Burries (guard)
most rebounds Tobe Awaka (forward)
most assists Jaden Bradley (guard)
most steals Jaden Bradley (guard)
most blocks Motiejus Krivas (center)
most turnovers Koa Peat (forward)
most fouls Tobe Awaka (forward)
18-5 23-0
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Arizona
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey -2.00 76 78 44 # 14 # 6 # 1 # 17
Pomeroy -3.19 74 78 38.1 # 13 # 2 # 2 # 41
Greenfield -3.00 74 77 # 13 # 8 # 2 # 10
Dunkel -7.50 68 75 43.9 # 18 # 2
Vegas (via Dunkel) -2.50 75 77
Dolphin Predictive -2.74 73 75 40.7 # 12 # 8 # 2 # 10
DPPI -0.20 76 76 49.3 # 13 # 2 # 1 # 40
ESPN Bet/BPI -2.50 74.5 77 # 13 # 2 # 2 # 45
Whitlock -2.81 # 14 # 3 # 1 # 33
Colley Matrix -1.62 # 11 # 4 # 2 # 39
Donchess -7.00 75 82 27.5 # 13 # 4 # 1 # 31
Haslametrics -2.96 71 74 # 18 # 3
INCCStats -2.00 74 76 42.3 # 13 # 3
common opponents -9.71
trend and mental -6.53
NCAA NET # 13 # 2
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 12 # 1
Pomeroy offense # 43 # 6
Pomeroy defense # 7 # 2
Pomeroy tempo #199 # 25
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average -3.75 73.7 76.8 40.8
scatter 2.64 2.4 2.1 6.8
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #227 Green Bay 94 51 +23.65 +19.35
AWAY # 27 North Carolina 74 87 -0.10 -12.90
HOME #192 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 77 46 +22.66 +8.34
HOME #226 Princeton 76 57 +23.81 -4.81
NEUT # 3 Duke 66 78 -4.89 -7.11
NEUT # 83 Notre Dame 71 61 +11.50 -1.50
NEUT # 70 Syracuse 71 60 +10.52 +0.48
NEUT # 17 Tennessee 81 76 +1.35 +3.65
HOME # 8 Connecticut 56 61 +1.97 -6.97
NEUT # 52 Missouri 80 69 +8.33 +2.67
AWAY # 24 N.C. State 77 76 -0.72 +1.72
HOME #173 Towson 73 49 +21.19 +2.81
HOME #105 Davidson 90 61 +16.58 +12.42
AWAY # 50 UCF 75 81 +4.66 -10.66
HOME # 54 TCU 104 100 +12.68 -8.68
AWAY # 62 West Virginia 75 86 +5.51 -16.51
HOME # 6 Iowa St. 84 63 +0.14 +20.86
HOME # 44 Baylor 80 62 +10.28 +7.72
AWAY # 72 Colorado 75 69 +7.44 -1.44
AWAY # 91 Kansas St. 86 62 +9.96 +14.04
HOME # 22 BYU 90 82 +5.62 +2.38
AWAY # 21 Texas Tech 64 61 -1.70 +4.70
HOME #120 Utah 71 59 +19.10 -7.10
HOME # 2 Arizona 74 78 -3.19 0.381
AWAY # 6 Iowa St. 70 76 -6.86 0.258
AWAY # 59 Oklahoma St. 83 76 +6.64 0.735
HOME # 57 Cincinnati 75 62 +12.84 0.888
HOME # 5 Houston 69 69 -0.01 0.500
AWAY # 2 Arizona 71 81 -10.19 0.168
AWAY # 73 Arizona St. 80 73 +7.62 0.764
HOME # 91 Kansas St. 87 70 +16.96 0.946
Here is Arizona's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 7 Florida 93 87 +3.48 +2.52
HOME #196 Utah Tech 93 67 +30.72 -4.72
HOME #312 Northern Arizona 84 49 +37.22 -2.22
AWAY # 39 UCLA 69 65 +8.59 -4.59
AWAY # 8 Connecticut 71 67 +1.37 +2.63
HOME #236 Denver 103 73 +34.19 -4.19
HOME #316 Norfolk St. 98 61 +39.73 -2.73
HOME # 30 Auburn 97 68 +14.10 +14.90
AWAY # 20 Alabama 96 75 +5.72 +15.28
HOME #257 Abilene Christian 96 62 +34.41 -0.41
HOME # 41 San Diego St. 68 45 +16.75 +6.25
HOME #224 Bethune Cookman 107 71 +33.53 +2.47
HOME #212 South Dakota St. 99 71 +32.00 -4.00
AWAY #120 Utah 97 78 +19.81 -0.81
HOME # 91 Kansas St. 101 76 +24.87 +0.13
AWAY # 54 TCU 86 73 +13.02 -0.02
HOME # 73 Arizona St. 89 82 +22.19 -15.19
AWAY # 50 UCF 84 77 +12.02 -5.02
HOME # 57 Cincinnati 77 51 +20.21 +5.79
HOME # 62 West Virginia 88 53 +19.36 +15.64
AWAY # 22 BYU 86 83 +5.72 -2.72
AWAY # 73 Arizona St. 87 74 +15.19 -2.19
HOME # 59 Oklahoma St. 84 47 +21.42 +15.58
AWAY # 13 Kansas 78 74 +3.19 0.619
HOME # 21 Texas Tech 87 74 +12.18 0.875
HOME # 22 BYU 90 78 +12.72 0.885
AWAY # 5 Houston 73 74 -0.94 0.465
AWAY # 44 Baylor 87 76 +10.48 0.839
HOME # 13 Kansas 81 71 +10.19 0.832
HOME # 6 Iowa St. 81 75 +6.65 0.735
AWAY # 72 Colorado 90 75 +14.94 0.921
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1 week 5 days ago #34507
by sasnak
It'll feel better when it stops hurting
I have a prediction that is not based on any facts or theories...We win by 5 or lose by 20
It'll feel better when it stops hurting
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1 week 5 days ago #34509
by Bayhawk
The end is nothing; the road is all.
-- Jules Michelet
Overtime if we win . . .
RC
RC
The end is nothing; the road is all.
-- Jules Michelet
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1 week 5 days ago #34519
by USAF Jayhawk
Almost nailed it!
sasnak wrote: I have a prediction that is not based on any facts or theories...We win by 5 or lose by 20
Almost nailed it!
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1 week 4 days ago #34525
by sasnak
It'll feel better when it stops hurting
I'm glad it went that way and not the other. Tucson may be another matter
It'll feel better when it stops hurting
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1 week 4 days ago #34526
by konza63
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
I think we stand a decent chance in Tucson if Peterson plays. But at this rate, he'll have a cold sore and pull himself out of that one right before tip-time...
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
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- b82, g84 Lift the chorus...
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1 week 4 days ago #34527
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
I haven't seen it myself, but I have read others referencing the national media starting to question DP on missing so many games.
Sad thing is this - if he really is ill, all the history with his handlers controlling his PT throughout the season seems to now be minimizing any grace he might have had with the media.
So far I think Self has done a pretty good job of dealing with it. It does help that the rest of the team have stepped up and shown #Don'tneednoPeterson.
Not saying the others don't want him there, from all I hear and I read they most certainly do.
But as Aragorn said to the Hobbits at the end of The Return of the King, they kneel to no one.
Sad thing is this - if he really is ill, all the history with his handlers controlling his PT throughout the season seems to now be minimizing any grace he might have had with the media.
So far I think Self has done a pretty good job of dealing with it. It does help that the rest of the team have stepped up and shown #Don'tneednoPeterson.
Not saying the others don't want him there, from all I hear and I read they most certainly do.
But as Aragorn said to the Hobbits at the end of The Return of the King, they kneel to no one.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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1 week 4 days ago #34529
by USAF Jayhawk
I want to give DP the benefit of the doubt but I'm struggling. Michael Jordans' "Flu" game was one for the ages. I suspect that DP playing at 50% is probably better than most. I would have least like to seem him try.
Another thing (as pointed out by the "CBS Eyes on College basketball" dudes) is that when DP would leave the game with cramps he never showed distress, and he never appeared to receive treatment. He and the trainers just sat there...
Another thing (as pointed out by the "CBS Eyes on College basketball" dudes) is that when DP would leave the game with cramps he never showed distress, and he never appeared to receive treatment. He and the trainers just sat there...
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1 week 4 days ago #34530
by konza63
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
As Churchill famously said about Soviet behavior:
It's a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma…
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
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