Big XII projection, Round 11

BYU did indeed extend their free-fall to four games by failing to hold serve at home against Houston.
Ending the free-fall won't be easy with a road game at Baylor, in which the Cougars are favored by a
mere point.

Round 12 features one game on Big Monday, four games on Tuesday, two games on Wednesday, and two teams
have byes.

N.B.  For Round 10, I updated the projected win totals for West Virginia and Cincinnati, who played the
last game of the round on Thursday, but apparently I failed to update their win/loss records.  Mea culpa.

                      Init   Rd 4   Rd 5   Rd 6   Rd 7   Rd 8   Rd 9   Rd A   Rd B   
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  -----------------
#  2  Arizona        14.903 15.094 15.268 15.454 15.667 16.095 16.048 16.015 16.171  10  0  Mon @KU  78 74 rw
#  5  Houston        12.402 14.226 14.471 14.429 13.785 14.100 14.168 14.404 14.978   9  1  Tue @UU  80 65 rw
#  6  Iowa State     14.726 13.922 12.768 13.075 13.249 13.345 13.762 13.755 13.688   8  2  Tue @TCU 78 69 rw
# 13  Kansas         11.159 10.617 10.996 11.238 11.718 11.650 12.095 12.721 12.640   8  2  Mon  UA  74 78 hl
# 21  Texas Tech     10.530 10.713 11.503 12.348 12.842 12.814 12.153 11.526 11.937   7  3  Wed  CU  88 75
# 50  UCF             8.560  9.738  9.595  9.143  9.850  9.998 10.893 10.597  9.893   6  5  bye
# 22  BYU            12.702 13.132 12.260 12.175 12.130 11.789 11.215 10.338  9.714   5  5  Tue @BU  85 84 rw
# 62  West Virginia   6.956  7.940  8.476  9.428  9.198  9.438  8.654  9.508  9.217   6  5  bye
# 54  TCU             7.460  8.216  7.395  7.596  8.512  8.187  7.299  7.322  7.547   4  6  Tue  ISU 69 78 hl
# 59  Oklahoma State  6.461  6.069  6.278  6.086  5.874  5.891  6.550  7.383  7.226   4  6  Tue @ASU 85 87
# 57  Cincinnati      6.568  6.218  7.570  7.409  6.637  7.069  6.947  6.227  6.945   4  7  Wed @KSU 76 76 rw
# 44  Baylor          9.398  7.831  7.325  6.468  5.678  5.146  5.865  6.289  6.384   3  8  Tue  BYU 84 85 hl
# 72  Colorado        6.138  6.622  6.258  6.092  5.470  5.308  6.133  5.767  6.189   4  7  Wed @TTU 75 88
# 73  Arizona State   6.341  5.876  5.549  4.722  5.442  5.356  5.297  5.845  5.468   3  8  Tue  OSU 87 85
# 91  Kansas State    6.219  4.660  4.318  4.465  4.082  3.885  3.659  3.649  3.354   1  9  Wed  UC  76 76 hl
#120  Utah            3.479  3.127  3.972  3.872  3.863  3.926  3.263  2.654  2.648   1  9  Tue  UH  65 80 hl

Playing Utah at home really hurt the strength of schedule rating for Kansas, but not its ranking.
Not to worry.  After playing Arizona on Monday and Iowa State on Saturday, the Kansas rating will
be just fine.

Rank  Big XII Team   Sched.
----  -------------- ------
#  3  Kansas         +14.06
#  5  Texas Tech     +13.52
# 11  Arizona State  +12.02
# 12  Baylor         +11.92
# 24  BYU            +10.50
# 30  Kansas State    +9.87
# 35  UCF             +9.52
# 41  Arizona         +8.89
# 45  Cincinnati      +8.81
# 46  Houston         +8.76
# 51  Utah            +8.58
# 56  Oklahoma State  +8.17
# 60  Colorado        +7.18
# 61  Iowa State      +7.16
# 62  TCU             +7.05
# 77  West Virginia   +5.50

Only two road wins ahead of the long-term one-in-three trend for the moment, but five road wins
are projected for Round 12.  A couple of those are really toss-up games, and the one in Lawrence
we hope to prevent from happening.

Road wins (30 out of  83)                     Home losses                                     RW-HL
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------- -------
5 Arizona      UU  TCU UCF BYU ASU            0 Arizona                                      +5 UA 
4 Houston      UC  BU  TCU BYU                0 Houston                                      +4 UH 
3 Iowa St.     BU  OSU KSU                    0 Iowa St.                                     +3 ISU
3 Kansas       CU  KSU TTU                    0 Kansas                                       +3 KU
3 Texas Tech   CU  BU  WVU                    1 UCF          UA                              +2 TTU
2 Baylor       OSU WVU                        1 Texas Tech   KU                              +1 UCF
2 BYU          KSU UU                         2 BYU          UA  UH                           0 BYU
2 UCF          KSU CU                         2 Cincinnati   UH  WVU                          0 WVU
2 W. Virginia  ASU UC                         2 Oklahoma St. BU  ISU                         -1 OSU
1 Arizona St.  UU                             2 TCU          UA  UH                          -1 TCU
1 Colorado     ASU                            2 W. Virginia  BU  TTU                         -2 ASU
1 Oklahoma St. UU                             3 Arizona St.  CU  WVU UA                      -2 BU
1 TCU          BU                             3 Colorado     TTU KU  UCF                     -2 UC 
0 Cincinnati                                  4 Baylor       ISU UH  TTU TCU                 -2 CU
0 Kansas St.                                  4 Kansas St.   BYU UCF KU  ISU                 -4 KSU
0 Utah                                        4 Utah         UA  BYU OSU ASU                 -4 UU