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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Utah game
- asteroid
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21 hours 44 minutes ago #34494
by asteroid
Trap game?
After all, conference leader Arizona is coming to Allen Field House for Big Monday.
Utah is overdue for either one of those "better than you are" games or "worse than
you are games". The inconsistency for the Utes is a mere 6.8 points, an amazingly
low value. They've played just one game double-digits above expectation, and just
one game double-digits below expectation. They've never played a game this season
above expectation by enough to overcome the margin in today's game, and the best
conference game they played was just 6.5 points above expectation (at home against
TCU).
Lots of injuries among the Utes, thinning the bench, but the starters are intact.
I do question Greenfield's injury report, however. For example, against Texas Tech,
Greenfield reported that Luke Bamgboye was out, yet he played 8 minutes. For the
Utah game, Greenfield is reporting that Lucas Langarita may not take the court
against Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday. Um, that was last weekend.
Utah has a positive trend, but it is not statistically significant. Their mental
toughness rating is also positive and of marginal significance. This statistic
does help the Utes against a stronger opponent. The Kansas trend is also positive
and slightly larger than the Utah trend, but is also not statistically significant.
The mental toughness rating for Kansas is negative, with a fair bit of significance,
but that helps against a weaker opponent. Taken at face value, the margin is 23
points, second only to Dunkel's 28 point margin. Massey brings up the rear with a
mere 14 point margin. The average is 19.0 points with a scatter of 3.2 points.
Should be an easy win. Easy to look past the Utes towards the Wildcats on Monday.
Peterson may sit. Elmarko is nursing the knee bump and might play sparingly. Take
the under. And don't look past the Utes.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats UU KU Defensive Stats UU KU
Points/Game 78.8 78.1 Opp Points/Game 81.0 67.7
Avg Score Margin -2.2 +10.5 Opp Effective FG % 53.1 44.5
Assists/Game 14.0 15.1 Off Rebounds/Gm 8.6 8.1
Total Rebounds/Gm 34.7 39.0 Def Rebounds/Gm 22.3 28.1
Effective FG % 53.0 54.5 Blocks/Game 3.5 6.0
Off Rebound % 27.1 27.0 Steals/Game 5.8 5.4
FTA/FGA 0.333 0.339 Personal Fouls/Gm 17.4 14.3
Turnover % 13.7 13.2
My Stats Comparison KU UU
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.99 +0.38
inconsistency 9.88 6.82
trend +0.21 ± 0.34 +0.17 ± 0.23
mental toughness -0.33 ± 0.24 +0.17 ± 0.17
average total pts 146.23 159.77
Common Opponents
================
There are five common opponents, all in conference, one of which Utah has played
twice, giving us six scores to compare:
KU +6 CU on road (+10 neutral court)
UU -12 CU on road ( -8 neutral court)
KU +22 UU at home (+18 neutral court)
KU +8 BYU at home ( +4 neutral court) KU +8 BYU at home ( +4 neutral court)
UU -5 BYU at home ( -9 neutral court) UU -13 BYU on road ( -9 neutral court)
KU +17 UU at home (+13 neutral court) KU +17 UU at home (+13 neutral court)
KU +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
UU -14 TTU on road (-10 neutral court)
KU +21 UU at home (+17 neutral court)
KU +4 TCU at home ( 0 neutral court)
UU +3 TCU at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU +5 UU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU +24 KSU on road (+28 neutral court)
UU -3 KSU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU +31 UU at home (+27 neutral court)
The average favors Kansas by 18.8 points with a scatter of 8.5 points. The
average would be higher, but for the TCU comparison.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Terrence Brown (guard)
most points Terrence Brown (guard)
most rebounds Keanu Dawes (forward)
most assists Terrence Brown (guard)
most steals Terrence Brown (guard)
most blocks Josh Hayes (forward)
most turnovers Terrence Brown (guard)
most fouls Jacob Patrick (guard)
Forward Babacar Faye is out with a leg injury. Forward Ibi Traore has a knee
injury with an uncertain timetable for returning to action (6 minutes and 2 points
per game). Guard Elijah Moore has a head injury with an uncertain timetable for
returning to action (5 minutes and 0 points per game). Guard Jacob Patrick has an
unspecified injury with an uncertain timetable for returning to action (20 minutes
and 7 points per game). Forward Jahki Howard has an unspecified injury with an
uncertain timetable for returning to action (7 minutes and 1 point per game). Guard
Lucas Langarita has an unspecified injury with an uncertain timetable for returning
to action (5 minutes and 3 points per game). So only one injured player with
significant playing time.
17-5 9-13
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Utah
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey +14.00 83 69 91 # 13 # 3 #103 # 61
Pomeroy +19.74 86 67 96.9 # 11 # 3 #123 # 53
Greenfield +18.50 84.5 66 # 13 # 5 #107 # 77
Dunkel +28.00 87 59 97.2 # 18 #145
Vegas (via Dunkel) +18.50 84 66
Dolphin Predictive +18.17 85 67 93.9 # 11 # 4 #108 # 80
DPPI +16.20 84 68 93.2 # 14 # 1 #184 # 35
ESPN Bet/BPI +18.50 84.5 66 # 12 # 2 #106 # 54
Whitlock +17.57 # 14 # 3 #116 # 39
Colley Matrix +20.34 # 9 # 3 #153 # 39
Donchess +16.50 87 70 94.4 # 13 # 2 #106 # 40
Haslametrics +19.72 85 65 # 16 #119
INCCStats +18.00 85 67 95.7 # 11 #107
common opponents +18.83
trend and mental +23.05
NCAA NET # 12 #128
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 12 #118
Pomeroy offense # 33 # 81
Pomeroy defense # 8 #228
Pomeroy tempo #201 #177
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +19.04 85.0 66.4 94.6
scatter 3.21 1.2 2.8 2.2
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #229 Green Bay 94 51 +24.36 +18.64
AWAY # 30 North Carolina 74 87 +0.86 -13.85
HOME #204 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 77 46 +23.53 +7.47
HOME #225 Princeton 76 57 +24.51 -5.51
NEUT # 3 Duke 66 78 -4.86 -7.14
NEUT # 81 Notre Dame 71 61 +11.71 -1.71
NEUT # 68 Syracuse 71 60 +10.85 +0.15
NEUT # 17 Tennessee 81 76 +1.67 +3.33
HOME # 9 Connecticut 56 61 +2.35 -7.35
NEUT # 57 Missouri 80 69 +9.60 +1.40
AWAY # 23 N.C. State 77 76 -0.38 +1.38
HOME #163 Towson 73 49 +20.97 +3.03
HOME #102 Davidson 90 61 +16.94 +12.06
AWAY # 45 UCF 75 81 +4.13 -10.13
HOME # 53 TCU 104 100 +12.90 -8.90
AWAY # 62 West Virginia 75 86 +5.83 -16.83
HOME # 4 Iowa St. 84 63 -0.14 +21.14
HOME # 48 Baylor 80 62 +11.34 +6.66
AWAY # 76 Colorado 75 69 +8.19 -2.19
AWAY # 90 Kansas St. 86 62 +10.42 +13.58
HOME # 19 BYU 90 82 +5.57 +2.43
AWAY # 21 Texas Tech 64 61 -1.10 +4.10
HOME #123 Utah 86 67 +19.74 0.969
HOME # 2 Arizona 77 79 -2.17 0.419
AWAY # 4 Iowa St. 70 77 -7.14 0.250
AWAY # 54 Oklahoma St. 85 78 +6.61 0.734
HOME # 64 Cincinnati 76 61 +14.20 0.910
HOME # 6 Houston 70 69 +0.95 0.536
AWAY # 2 Arizona 73 82 -9.17 0.193
AWAY # 72 Arizona St. 82 74 +8.03 0.776
HOME # 90 Kansas St. 88 70 +17.42 0.950
Here is Utah's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #253 San Jose St. 84 75 +10.42 -1.42
HOME #223 Weber St. 92 89 +9.41 -6.41
HOME #331 Holy Cross 87 69 +16.04 +1.96
HOME #105 Sam Houston St. 85 79 +1.48 +4.52
HOME #246 Purdue Fort Wayne 85 77 +10.50 -2.50
HOME #245 Cal Poly 85 92 +11.08 -18.08
NEUT # 63 Grand Canyon 58 68 -5.90 -4.10
NEUT # 66 Mississippi 75 74 -5.47 +6.47
AWAY # 61 California 72 79 -9.75 +2.75
HOME #120 Cal Baptist 91 85 +3.31 +2.69
NEUT # 84 Mississippi St. 74 82 -4.16 -3.84
HOME #222 Eastern Washington 101 77 +9.14 +14.86
AWAY # 44 Washington 65 74 -12.24 +3.24
HOME # 2 Arizona 78 97 -19.48 +0.48
AWAY # 76 Colorado 73 85 -8.40 -3.60
HOME # 19 BYU 84 89 -11.46 +6.46
AWAY # 21 Texas Tech 74 88 -17.52 +3.52
HOME # 53 TCU 82 79 -3.49 +6.49
AWAY # 90 Kansas St. 78 81 -6.83 +3.83
AWAY # 19 BYU 78 91 -18.46 +5.46
HOME # 54 Oklahoma St. 69 81 -3.89 -8.11
HOME # 72 Arizona St. 63 71 -1.72 -6.28
AWAY # 11 Kansas 67 86 -19.74 0.031
HOME # 6 Houston 66 81 -14.43 0.086
AWAY # 64 Cincinnati 68 77 -9.23 0.192
AWAY # 62 West Virginia 65 74 -9.16 0.193
HOME # 45 UCF 79 85 -5.48 0.302
HOME # 4 Iowa St. 70 86 -16.51 0.059
AWAY # 72 Arizona St. 78 87 -8.72 0.205
HOME # 76 Colorado 82 83 -1.40 0.447
AWAY # 48 Baylor 76 88 -12.14 0.126
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