Big XII projection, Round 10

BYU is in free-fall with three consecutive losses, and in danger of a fourth consecutive loss when they
host Houston on Saturday.  BYU has even fallen behind UCF in the projected standings.  It's a bit of
deja vu for Kansas, because after the home win over Iowa State looked so good, Iowa State turned around
and lost to Cincinnati, tarnishing the luster of the Kansas win.  Similarly, the home win over BYU looked
so good, until BYU turned around and lost to Oklahoma State.  What can I say?  The Big XII is a bitch.

Round 11 features six games on Saturday and two games on Sunday.  Kansas hosting Utah looks like a classic
trap game, what with Arizona coming to Lawrence for Big Monday.

                      Init   Rd 3   Rd 4   Rd 5   Rd 6   Rd 7   Rd 8   Rd 9   Rd A   
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  -----------------
#  2  Arizona        14.903 15.379 15.094 15.268 15.454 15.667 16.095 16.048 16.015   9  0  Sat  OSU 97 76
#  6  Houston        12.402 13.804 14.226 14.471 14.429 13.785 14.100 14.168 14.404   8  1  Sat @BYU 77 76 rw
#  4  Iowa State     14.726 15.265 13.922 12.768 13.075 13.249 13.345 13.762 13.755   7  2  Sat  BU  87 71
# 11  Kansas         11.159  9.190 10.617 10.996 11.238 11.718 11.650 12.095 12.721   7  2  Sat  UU  86 67
# 21  Texas Tech     10.530 10.768 10.713 11.503 12.348 12.842 12.814 12.153 11.526   6  3  Sun @WV  71 67 rw
# 45  UCF             8.560  8.951  9.738  9.595  9.143  9.850  9.998 10.893 10.597   6  4  Sun @UC  74 74
# 18  BYU            12.702 13.115 13.132 12.260 12.175 12.130 11.789 11.215 10.338   5  4  Sat  UH  76 77 hl
# 62  West Virginia   6.956  8.359  7.940  8.476  9.428  9.198  9.438  8.654  9.508   5  4  Sun  TTU 67 71 hl
# 54  Oklahoma State  6.461  7.222  6.069  6.278  6.086  5.874  5.891  6.550  7.383   4  5  Sat @UA  76 97
# 53  TCU             7.460  7.954  8.216  7.395  7.596  8.512  8.187  7.299  7.322   3  6  Sat  KSU 83 75
# 47  Baylor          9.398  6.872  7.831  7.325  6.468  5.678  5.146  5.865  6.289   3  7  Sat @ISU 71 87
# 64  Cincinnati      6.568  5.790  6.218  7.570  7.409  6.637  7.069  6.947  6.227   3  6  Sun  UCF 74 74
# 72  Arizona State   6.341  5.616  5.876  5.549  4.722  5.442  5.356  5.297  5.845   3  7  Sat @CU  82 86
# 77  Colorado        6.138  7.089  6.622  6.258  6.092  5.470  5.308  6.133  5.767   3  7  Sat  ASU 86 82
# 91  Kansas State    6.219  5.413  4.660  4.318  4.465  4.082  3.885  3.659  3.649   1  8  Sat @TCU 75 83
#124  Utah            3.479  3.213  3.127  3.972  3.872  3.863  3.926  3.263  2.654   1  8  Sat @KU  67 86

The latest strength of schedule rankings and ratings:

Rank  Big XII Team   Sched.
----  -------------- ------
#  3  Kansas         +14.89
#  4  Texas Tech     +13.40
# 10  Arizona State  +11.63
# 16  Baylor         +10.45
# 24  Kansas State    +9.77
# 29  BYU             +9.52
# 35  UCF             +9.18
# 42  Arizona         +8.81
# 45  Cincinnati      +8.62
# 52  Houston         +7.71
# 53  Utah            +7.70
# 57  TCU             +7.18
# 58  Colorado        +7.17
# 59  Oklahoma State  +7.00
# 60  Iowa State      +6.90
# 84  West Virginia   +4.36

We're currently three road wins ahead of the long-term one-in-three trend.  Only two road wins
are projected for Round 11, but one is effectively a toss-up, and the other involves Texas Tech
in Morgantown, which won't be as easy as the numbers suggest.  There is another toss-up that
marginally favors the home team.

Road wins (28 out of  75)                     Home losses                                     RW-HL
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------- -------
5 Arizona      UU  TCU UCF BYU ASU            0 Arizona                                      +5 UA 
3 Houston      UC  BU  TCU                    0 Houston                                      +3 UH 
3 Iowa St.     BU  OSU KSU                    0 Iowa St.                                     +3 ISU
3 Kansas       CU  KSU TTU                    0 Kansas                                       +3 KU
2 Baylor       OSU WVU                        1 BYU          UA                              +1 BYU
2 BYU          KSU UU                         1 UCF          UA                              +1 UCF
2 UCF          KSU CU                         1 Texas Tech   KU                              +1 TTU
2 Texas Tech   CU  BU                         1 W. Virginia  BU                              +1 WVU
2 W. Virginia  ASU UC                         2 Cincinnati   UH  WVU                         -1 OSU
1 Colorado     ASU                            2 Oklahoma St. BU  ISU                         -1 TCU
1 Oklahoma St. UU                             2 TCU          UA  UH                          -2 ASU
1 TCU          BU                             3 Arizona St.  CU  WVU UA                      -2 BU
1 Arizona St.  UU                             3 Colorado     TTU KU  UCF                     -2 UC 
0 Cincinnati                                  4 Baylor       ISU UH  TTU TCU                 -2 CU
0 Kansas St.                                  4 Kansas St.   BYU UCF KU  ISU                 -4 KSU
0 Utah                                        4 Utah         UA  BYU OSU ASU                 -4 UU