predictions for Texas Tech game

How long does it take to recharge your batteries?  Well, if you have
Power Delivery 3.0 on your USB-C connection, you can top off your cell
phone in roughly an hour.  Unfortunately, humans aren't quite as predictable
as cell phone batteries.  Plus these humans have to travel.  By the way,
does anybody know HOW they are traveling?  Does it involve a bus trip to
Topeka and then a charter flight to Lubbock?  Are such charter flights
not able to use Lawrence Municipal?  For longer flights, do the Jayhawks
use KCI from time to time?  From home to hotel, I imagine they can't really
do it in less than five hours, which takes out a big chunk of their day.
But anytime you play on Big Monday, it's going to be a short turnaround.
It's just that this last game was so draining.

It's deja vu all over again.  The opponent is coming off a loss.  The two
teams are adjacent to one another in the projected standings.  A Kansas
win would allow the Jayhawks to ascend to fourth place, while a loss could
mean dropping back down into sixth place, if BYU earns their expected win
in Stillwater on Wednesday.  The big difference here is that BYU lost at
home and then had to face Kansas on the road.  Meanwhile, Texas Tech lost
on the road and gets to face Kansas at home.  Well, both had to travel.
Tech had farther to travel, Orlando to Lubbock.

Looking at all the rankings, it's amazing how similar Kansas and Texas Tech
are.  They've played the two toughest schedules among Big XII members.  They
are adjacent to one another in multiple polls.  Kansas is slightly more
underrated than Tech,  Tech is slightly more inconsistent than Kansas.  Tech
has a slightly greater positive trend.  The mental toughness doesn't matter
much with two evenly matched teams.  Tech plays at a somewhat more brisk
pace.

Nobody is picking Kansas to win.  Dolphin is the most optimistic with Kansas
losing by a half point, while the common opponent comparison is the least
optimistic with Kansas losing by 8.  The average of fourteen prognotications
favors Texas Tech by 3.2 points, with a scatter of 2.0 points.  Basically,
it's a one possession affair.  I'd say that Peterson needs to play more of
the game than he did against BYU for Kansas to win, and Elmarko needs to be
available to provide more minutes of rest for the starters.  Dipping into
the bench as deeply as Dawson or Rosario doesn't bode well for the Jayhawks.

A bit of a breather with Utah in AFH this weekend, then four of the next six
games will come against Top Ten opponents, split evenly between home and road.
That ought to be enough to vault Kansas into the top strength of schedule spot.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      TTU     KU      Defensive Stats      TTU     KU
Points/Game         84.0    78.8     Opp Points/Game     74.4    68.0
Avg Score Margin    +9.5   +10.8     Opp Effective FG %  50.3    44.7
Assists/Game        16.2    15.3     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.8     8.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.6    39.1     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.7    28.0
Effective FG %      56.6    54.6     Blocks/Game          3.4     6.0
Off Rebound %       33.3    27.4     Steals/Game          6.0     5.4
FTA/FGA            0.292   0.343     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.2    14.5
Turnover %          12.8    12.9   

My Stats Comparison        KU              TTU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.32           +1.15    
inconsistency         10.04           11.38    
trend                 +0.20 ± 0.37    +0.26 ± 0.42
mental toughness      -0.37 ± 0.25    -0.04 ± 0.24         
average total pts     147.24          158.38 

Common Opponents
================
There are five common opponents, one non-conference and four conference:

KU  -12 Duk neutral (-12 neutral court)
TTU  +1 Duk neutral ( +1 neutral court)
KU  -17 TTU on road (-13 neutral court)

KU   +6 CU  on road (+10 neutral court)
TTU  +2 CU  on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU    0 TTU on road ( +4 neutral court)

KU   +8 BYU at home ( +4 neutral court)
TTU +13 BYU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU   -9 TTU on road ( -5 neutral court)

KU  +18 BU  at home (+14 neutral court)
TTU +19 BU  on road (+23 neutral court)
KU  -13 TTU on road ( -9 neutral court)

KU   -6 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
TTU  -8 UCF on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU   -2 TTU on road ( +2 neutral court)

The average favors Texas Tech by 8.20 points with a scatter of 7.2 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Christian Anderson (guard)
most points        J. T. Toppin (forward)
most rebounds      J. T. Toppin (forward)
most assists       Christian Anderson (guard)
most steals        Christian Anderson (guard)
most blocks        Luke Bamgboye (forward)
most turnovers     Christian Anderson (guard)
most fouls         J. T. Toppin (forward)

Leading blocker Luke Bamgboye is out with a knee injury.  Forward LaTrell Hoover
is redshirting.

                                                          16-5           16-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Texas Tech
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -3.00   73   76       41       # 15   #  7    # 14   #  3
Pomeroy                 -1.85   77   78       43.1     # 14   #  3    # 20   #  5
Greenfield              -5.00   75   80                # 14   #  9    # 20   # 10
Dunkel                  -1.00   75   76       35.7     # 19           # 16
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -4.50   75   79                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -0.52   75   75       48.2     # 12   #  5    # 18   # 10
DPPI                    -1.20   76   77       46.6     # 14   #  1    # 20   #  3 
ESPN Bet/BPI            -4.50   75   79.5              # 13   #  3    # 20   #  7
Whitlock                -3.38                          # 15   #  4    # 16   #  3
Colley Matrix           -3.45                          # 13   #  2    # 14   #  3 
Donchess                -3.40   75   79       40.1     # 17   #  2    # 16   #  5
Haslametrics            -2.15   75   77                # 17           # 23
INCCStats               -2.00   75   77       42.4     # 15           # 18
common opponents        -8.20                                   
NCAA NET                                               # 14           # 19
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 15           # 13
Pomeroy offense                                        # 24           # 10
Pomeroy defense                                        # 13           # 44
Pomeroy tempo                                          #208           #171
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -3.15   75.1 77.6     42.4 
scatter                  2.00    0.9  1.6      4.2

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #242 Green Bay                   94  51   +24.29   +18.71
AWAY   # 29 North Carolina              74  87    +0.42   -13.42
HOME   #196 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +22.73    +8.27
HOME   #227 Princeton                   76  57   +23.88    -4.88
NEUT   #  3 Duke                        66  78    -5.49    -6.51
NEUT   # 84 Notre Dame                  71  61   +11.26    -1.26
NEUT   # 70 Syracuse                    71  60   +10.31    +0.69
NEUT   # 18 Tennessee                   81  76    +1.47    +3.53
HOME   # 10 Connecticut                 56  61    +1.79    -6.79
NEUT   # 60 Missouri                    80  69    +9.29    +1.71
AWAY   # 23 N.C. State                  77  76    -0.80    +1.80
HOME   #157 Towson                      73  49   +20.45    +3.55
HOME   #107 Davidson                    90  61   +16.73   +12.27
AWAY   # 45 UCF                         75  81    +3.04    -9.04
HOME   # 53 TCU                        104 100   +12.53    -8.53
AWAY   # 69 West Virginia               75  86    +5.85   -16.85
HOME   #  4 Iowa St.                    84  63    -0.53   +21.53
HOME   # 51 Baylor                      80  62   +11.45    +6.55
AWAY   # 73 Colorado                    75  69    +7.18    -1.18
AWAY   # 91 Kansas St.                  86  62    +9.94   +14.06
HOME   # 15 BYU                         90  82    +4.46    +3.54
AWAY   # 20 Texas Tech                  77  78    -1.85             0.431
HOME   #116 Utah                        87  69   +18.55             0.960
HOME   #  2 Arizona                     77  80    -2.62             0.402
AWAY   #  4 Iowa St.                    71  79    -7.53             0.238
AWAY   # 58 Oklahoma St.                85  78    +6.54             0.732
HOME   # 62 Cincinnati                  76  63   +13.22             0.894
HOME   #  6 Houston                     71  70    +1.02             0.538
AWAY   #  2 Arizona                     74  83    -9.62             0.181
AWAY   # 77 Arizona St.                 83  76    +7.89             0.772
HOME   # 91 Kansas St.                  88  72   +16.94             0.945

Here is Texas Tech's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #235 Lindenwood                  98  60   +25.72   +12.28
HOME   #102 Sam Houston St.             98  77   +15.73    +5.27
AWAY   #  5 Illinois                    77  81    -8.17    +4.17
HOME   #255 Milwaukee                   80  63   +25.57    -8.57
NEUT   # 79 Wake Forest                 84  83    +9.96    -8.96
NEUT   #  8 Purdue                      56  86    -3.66   -26.34
HOME   #201 New Orleans                 82  50   +22.62    +9.38
HOME   #106 Wyoming                     76  72   +15.70   -11.70
NEUT   # 47 LSU                         82  58    +5.93   +18.07
NEUT   # 24 Arkansas                    86  93    +1.26    -8.26
HOME   #186 Northern Colorado          101  90   +21.60   -10.60
NEUT   #  3 Duke                        82  81    -7.18    +8.18
HOME   #118 Winthrop                    87  57   +17.36   +12.64
HOME   # 58 Oklahoma St.               102  80   +11.85   +10.15
AWAY   #  6 Houston                     65  69    -7.58    +3.58
AWAY   # 73 Colorado                    73  71    +5.60    -3.60
HOME   #116 Utah                        88  74   +17.03    -3.03
HOME   # 15 BYU                         84  71    +2.74   +10.26
AWAY   # 51 Baylor                      92  73    +2.84   +16.16
HOME   #  6 Houston                     90  86    -0.58    +4.58
AWAY   # 45 UCF                         80  88    +1.40    -9.40
HOME   # 14 Kansas                      78  77    +1.85             0.569
AWAY   # 69 West Virginia               72  68    +4.42             0.662
HOME   # 73 Colorado                    89  77   +12.60             0.883
AWAY   #  2 Arizona                     76  88   -11.44             0.140
AWAY   # 77 Arizona St.                 86  80    +6.28             0.724
HOME   # 91 Kansas St.                  91  76   +15.31             0.926
HOME   # 62 Cincinnati                  79  67   +11.64             0.864
AWAY   #  4 Iowa St.                    74  83    -9.24             0.191
HOME   # 53 TCU                         82  71   +10.95             0.850
AWAY   # 15 BYU                         82  86    -4.26             0.344