Kansas is #10 in Ken Pom Rankings..My analysis of WV inside.

If this weekend has told us anything it's that any team can get beat on the road at any point during conference play. North Carolina lost at Notre Dame while Oklahoma lost at Kansas State. Both of those were tough match ups as Notre Dame is actually ranked #1 in adjOFF and Kansas State is ranked #14 in adjDEF.

Looking ahead KU plays West Virginia on Tuesday. They are ranked 8th in Ken Pom's rankings. Here's how we match up against them using the four factors.

EFF FG%
KU: 22
West Virginia: 117
-KU has a clear advantage in shooting the ball.

Turnover %
KU: 86
West Virginia: 283
-This stats determines how often you turn the ball over. West Virginia is one of the worst teams at turning the ball over. We need to get easy transition points and create run outs.

ORB%
KU: 125
West Virginia: 1
-West Virginia will absolutely dominate us on the offensive glass. Expects lots of second chance opportunites for them.

Free Throw Rate
KU: 147
West Virginia: 6
-West Virginia is one of the best teams at getting to the free throw line. However, once they get there they only make 66.1% of their shots which is ranked 292. KU should foul them early and often and force them to make free throws.

Here's a few extra stats that I like to follow as well:

Average Scoring Margin
KU: 17
West Virginia: 6
-West Virginia average margin of victory is 15.6 points while KU's is 12.8. I expect KU's home court avantage to eliminate some of West Virginia's scoring abilities.

Defensive Rebounds
KU: 41
West Virginia: 208
-KU will have a clear advantage with getting defensive rebounds. This is mostly due to West Virginia wanting to set up their press early to avoid easy transition run outs.

West Virginia will play us tough, but if we start hitting 3's and the crowd gets into it watch out. We could very well get upset, but you have to think Bill has taught our guys how to beat their press. It will come down to us hitting our shots, creating transition run outs, and fouling them as they are a poor free throw shooting team.

Here is my analysis for the Oklahoma game:

EFF FG%
KU: 22
Oklahoma: 9
-Oklahoma has the advantage in shooting the ball.

Turnover %
KU: 86
Oklahoma: 112
-This stats determines how often you turn the ball over. Both teams are statisically even on this stat as KU turns it over 16.6% per possession while Oklahoma turns it over 17% per possession.

ORB%
KU: 125
Oklahoma: 119
-Offensive rebounding is a wash between both teams. KU's rebounds 29.4% of offensive rebounds while Oklahomaa rebounds 29.6% of offensive rebounds.

Free Throw Rate
KU: 147
Oklahoma: 286
-Oklahoma is one of the worst teams at getting to the free throw line. Once they get there they make 72.6% of their shots which is ranked 77th. KU makes 71.1% of their shots which is ranked 119th.

Here's a few extra stats that I like to follow as well:

Average Scoring Margin
KU: 17
Oklahoma: 15
-Oklahoma's average margin of victory is 13.1 points while KU's is 12.8.

Defensive Rebounds
KU: 41
Oklahoma: 4
-Oklahoma will have a clear advantage with getting defensive rebounds.

Oklahoma and KU are basically a wash in turnover %, Offensive Rebound %, Free Throw % (Not Free Throw Rate), and Average Scoring Margin. This game will come down to which team makes more of their shots. KU makes 51% of their two pointers, which is ranked 90th, while OU makes 49%, which is ranked 147th. Oklahoma makes 45.3% of their three's, which is ranked 1st, while KU makes 41.5%, which is ranked 7th.

WE HAVE TO PREVENT THEIR 3 POINT SHOOTING AND TRY TO LIMIT BUDDY AND SPANGLER AS BEST AS WE CAN.

Great info ATX.

To me, WVU is no mystery whatsoever. They play ugly high energy defense full court, have a strong inside presence, and hustle to steal O-rebounds.

Unlike the game at WVU, I don't expect the refs to be biased against us, and perhaps even call some of the WVU hacks. I'm still baffled that WVU's defense doesn't lead to more run outs once the press is beaten. Last time when we DID have those opportunities it seemed like we were in too much of a rush, hurried, and made unforced errors.

I don't expect us to suddenly become an amazing rebounding team that keeps WVU off the offensive glass, and their big goon with the goggles is certainly a handful.

Bottom line, the AFH environment won't allow the guys to quit like it appeared they did last time, and I don't expect the refs to hand WVU the game. By balancing those factors out, and by taking care of the ball even slightly better than last time, and I think we're in good shape to beat the Mountaineers.

Gawd, I had forgotten (repressed) the tragedy that was the officiating . . .


RC

Makes you wonder if (especially at home) Huggy Ball (aka Muggy Ball) almost requires that the officials allow an egregious number of fouls to go uncalled. Look at it this way, officials are human beings and are, to a certain extent, aware of fans' desire for the game to proceed without a stoppage every 10 seconds. By raising the level of allowable contact past what it should be (or is in every other game) it plays to their advantage.

Just a theory. It's a crap brand of basketball.