predictions for BYU game

Is Kansas playing BYU today?  The schedule says so, but the media are saying
that Peterson is playing Dybantsa.  Somehow I expect the outcome will depend
on the other team members.  The last time Peterson went up against Dybantsa,
Peterson scored 58, including the game-winning three-pointer and Dybantsa
scored 49.  I don't know what their relative state of health was for that game.
For today's game, a good question is the status of Peterson's rolled ankle.  He
sat out the Kansas State game, so he's had a week and a half to recover.  Given
how he reentered the game, I got the impression that the ankle roll wasn't that
bad, but it almost certainly hurt more the next day after a night of inactivity.
It does remind me of a case of a grade five ankle sprain.  If memory serves, it
involved Kirk Heinrich, occurred during the conference tournament, and he played
in the Big Dance.  Gutsy performance.  So it seems possible that Peterson is good
to go.  But is the cramping behind him, such that he can play the entire game?

All the prognosticators are expecting a close game.  The least favorable is
Donchess, who is picking BYU by almost 2 points, and the most favorable is the
common opponent comparsion, which, by virtue of the Kansas State game, favors
Kansas by almost 6 points.  It should be noted that the comparison involves TCU,
which was an overtime game, so if you use the 0 point margin in regulation for the
comparison rather than the 4 point overtime margin, the common opponent comparison
drops to a bit over 4 points, which is what Vegas is expecting.  Dunkel is also picking
BYU, but all the others are picking Kansas  The average is 2.95 points with a scatter of
2.15 points, making it a one-possession affair.  It is the only game on Saturday that pits
two Top 25 teams against one another.  No wonder College Game Day chose this game
to attend.

BYU's projected win total has slipped by a game since the beginning of the conference
season, and the Cougars' negative trend shows some statistical significance.  Kansas'
projected win total has actually improved by a half game, leading to a positive trend.
Given how evenly matched these two teams are, the mental toughness values don't
matter a whole lot.  The inconsistency values for both teams are very similar.  BYU
plays at a faster tempo.  BYU has the better offense, according to Pomeroy, but Kansas
has the better defense.  One thing that Kansas has for this game that BYU does not:

Allen Field House

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      BYU     KU      Defensive Stats      BYU     KU
Points/Game         86.7    78.3     Opp Points/Game     70.9    67.3
Avg Score Margin   +15.8   +11.0     Opp Effective FG %  47.8    44.2
Assists/Game        15.2    15.3     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.6     8.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   40.1    39.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.8    28.0
Effective FG %      55.8    54.0     Blocks/Game          4.9     6.2
Off Rebound %       33.5    27.9     Steals/Game          8.4     5.5
FTA/FGA            0.359   0.339     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.1    14.5
Turnover %          13.1    13.1   

My Stats Comparison        KU              BYU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.36           +2.48    
inconsistency         10.18           10.09    
trend                 +0.19 ± 0.40    -0.46 ± 0.39
mental toughness      -0.41 ± 0.26    -0.22 ± 0.21         
average total pts     146.00          157.50 

Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents, one non-conference and two conference:

KU   -5 Con at home ( -9 neutral court)
BYU  -2 Con neutral ( -2 neutral court)
KU   -3 BYU at home ( -7 neutral court)

KU  +24 KSU on road (+28 neutral court)
BYU +10 KSU on road (+14 neutral court)
KU  +18 BYU at home (+14 neutral court)

KU   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral court)
BYU  +6 TCU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU   +2 BYU at home ( -2 neutral court)

The average favors Kansas by 5.67 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Robert Wright III (guard)
most points        A. J. Dybantsa (forward)
most rebounds      Keba Keita (center)
most assists       Robert Wright III (guard)
most steals        Richie Saunders (forward)
most blocks        Keba Keita (center)
most turnovers     A. J. Dybantsa (forward)
most fouls         Abdullah Ahmed (center)

Reserve forward Brody Kozlowski is out for the game.  Reserve guard Nate Pickens
is out for the rest of the season.

                                                          15-5           17-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          BYU
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +4.00   78   74       64       # 18   #  8    # 14   # 31
Pomeroy                 +3.57   81   77       63.2     # 14   #  3    # 15   # 39
Greenfield              +4.50   81.5 77                # 16   # 12    # 13   # 22
Dunkel                  -1.00   81   82                # 22           # 11
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.50   81   77                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +3.54   78   74       61.8     # 13   #  9    # 17   # 22
DPPI                    +4.50   78   74       63.3     # 14   #  2    # 15   # 14 
ESPN Bet/BPI            +4.50   81.5 77                # 15   #  3    # 13   # 48
Whitlock                +3.24                          # 15   #  4    # 14   # 48
Colley Matrix           +1.16                          # 15   #  3    #  8   # 30 
Donchess                -1.70   78   79.5     46.1     # 17   #  3    # 11   # 18
Haslametrics            +2.86   78   75                # 20           # 17
INCCStats               +2.00   78   76       58.1     # 17           # 14
common opponents        +5.67                                   
NCAA NET                                               # 15           # 14
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 15           # 12
Pomeroy offense                                        # 32           # 13
Pomeroy defense                                        # 13           # 25
Pomeroy tempo                                          #205           # 51
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +2.95   79.5 76.6     59.4 
scatter                  2.15    1.7  2.5      6.9

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #238 Green Bay                   94  51   +23.67   +19.33
AWAY   # 29 North Carolina              74  87    +0.22   -13.22
HOME   #184 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +21.92    +9.08
HOME   #242 Princeton                   76  57   +24.35    -5.35
NEUT   #  3 Duke                        66  78    -5.75    -6.25
NEUT   # 79 Notre Dame                  71  61   +10.35    -0.35
NEUT   # 77 Syracuse                    71  60   +10.42    +0.58
NEUT   # 21 Tennessee                   81  76    +1.34    +3.66
HOME   # 13 Connecticut                 56  61    +2.48    -7.48
NEUT   # 62 Missouri                    80  69    +8.81    +2.19
AWAY   # 25 N.C. State                  77  76    -0.66    +1.66
HOME   #172 Towson                      73  49   +20.52    +3.48
HOME   #127 Davidson                    90  61   +17.94   +11.06
AWAY   # 45 UCF                         75  81    +3.37    -9.37
HOME   # 50 TCU                        104 100   +10.69    -6.69
AWAY   # 58 West Virginia               75  86    +4.72   -15.72
HOME   #  4 Iowa St.                    84  63    +0.14   +20.86
HOME   # 53 Baylor                      80  62   +11.59    +6.41
AWAY   # 84 Colorado                    75  69    +7.96    -1.96
AWAY   # 87 Kansas St.                  86  62    +8.68   +15.32
HOME   # 15 BYU                         81  77    +3.57             0.632
AWAY   # 18 Texas Tech                  75  78    -2.58             0.404
HOME   #113 Utah                        87  69   +17.62             0.952
HOME   #  2 Arizona                     76  80    -3.25             0.379
AWAY   #  4 Iowa St.                    71  78    -6.86             0.258
AWAY   # 71 Oklahoma St.                85  78    +6.65             0.735
HOME   # 57 Cincinnati                  75  63   +12.40             0.879
HOME   #  6 Houston                     71  70    +0.75             0.528
AWAY   #  2 Arizona                     73  83   -10.25             0.166
AWAY   # 78 Arizona St.                 83  75    +7.55             0.762
HOME   # 87 Kansas St.                  87  72   +15.68             0.931

Here is BYU's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 27 Villanova                   71  66    +3.18    +1.82
HOME   #327 Holy Cross                  98  53   +31.23   +13.77
HOME   #282 Delaware                    85  68   +27.17   -10.17
NEUT   # 13 Connecticut                 84  86    -1.14    -0.86
HOME   # 41 Wisconsin                   98  70    +9.21   +18.79
NEUT   # 38 Miami FL                    72  62    +5.14    +4.86
NEUT   # 88 Dayton                      83  79   +12.41    -8.41
HOME   #129 Cal Baptist                 91  60   +18.88   +12.12
NEUT   # 28 Clemson                     67  64    +3.65    -0.65
HOME   #268 UC Riverside               100  53   +27.93   +19.07
HOME   #108 Pacific                     93  57   +17.20   +18.80
HOME   #258 Abilene Christian           85  67   +26.82    -8.82
HOME   #237 Eastern Washington         109  81   +26.32    +1.68
AWAY   # 87 Kansas St.                  83  73    +9.16    +0.84
HOME   # 78 Arizona St.                104  76   +15.00   +13.00
AWAY   #113 Utah                        89  84   +11.23    -6.23
HOME   # 50 TCU                         76  70   +10.97    -4.97
AWAY   # 18 Texas Tech                  71  84    -2.60   -10.40
HOME   #113 Utah                        91  78   +18.23    -5.23
HOME   #  2 Arizona                     83  86    -3.63    +0.63
AWAY   # 14 Kansas                      77  81    -3.57             0.368
AWAY   # 71 Oklahoma St.                91  84    +7.04             0.747
HOME   #  6 Houston                     76  76    +0.55             0.521
AWAY   # 53 Baylor                      87  82    +4.91             0.679
HOME   # 84 Colorado                    93  77   +15.43             0.928
AWAY   #  2 Arizona                     79  89   -10.63             0.157
HOME   #  4 Iowa St.                    80  80    -0.09             0.496
HOME   # 45 UCF                         89  79   +10.63             0.842
AWAY   # 58 West Virginia               75  70    +5.09             0.685
AWAY   # 57 Cincinnati                  78  72    +5.75             0.707
HOME   # 18 Texas Tech                  85  81    +4.40             0.661