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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
prediction for Kansas State game
- asteroid
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13 hours 55 minutes ago #34412
by asteroid
In this upside down world, we have a traditional basketball school winning a
football championship, and we have a traditional football school being one of
three remaining undefeated Division I basketball teams. Why am I bringing
this up? It's because Kansas State lost by just a single point to this
undefeated opponent. That alone should be enough to warn the Jayhawks not
to take the Wildcats lightly. Never mind their 1-5 conference record. Add
to that the fact that it has been a while (the 2021-2022 season) since Kansas
won in Manhattan (and no, I'm not talking about Madison Square Garden). And
Peterson, if he plays, will likely be slowed down by the after-effects of the
rolled ankle he sustained in Boulder.
So much for the Doom and Gloom. The usual prognosticators are picking Kansas
to win the game by anywhere from 1 to 9 points, the average being 5.9 points
with a scatter of 1.9 points.
Kansas State has already played five games "better than they are" and only
three games "worse than they are". Of course, the laws of statistics do not
preclude another "better than they are" performance, but it is more likely
that they'd play one of those "who you are" games (that is, within ten points
of expectation), and a small chance of playing another "worse than you are"
game. The Wildcats have not been very consistent this season.
The one statistic that kind of sticks out like a sore thumb is that the
Wildcats are Pomeroy's #18 team in terms of tempo. They have 72.3 possessions
per game compared to just 67.4 for Kansas. It's reasonable to expect a
somewhat higher scoring game. Then again, the Wildcats have to go up against
Pomeroy's #13 defense, and with one of their three-point specialists out for
the game, it could also turn into a lowering scoring game. See how easy it is
to cover all the bases?
Kansas State does show a negative trend, but of only marginal statistical
significance. Their mental toughness value is not significant. Kansas is
just the opposite, in that there is no significance to the trend, but the
mental toughness rating is definitely negative, while actually helps when
playing a weaker opponent.
Self indicated that the team bus would leave for Manhattan a little earlier
than usual to get there before the storm hit. Let's hope the Fox broadcast
team did as well. The Jayhawks have a mid-week bye, so if they get stuck in
Manhattan, no big deal. (Yeah, I suppose it could hinder preparations for
the BYU game.)
Stay warm.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats KSU KU Defensive Stats KSU KU
Points/Game 85.3 77.8 Opp Points/Game 80.2 67.6
Avg Score Margin +5.1 +10.3 Opp Effective FG % 50.7 44.3
Assists/Game 19.1 15.1 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.7 8.4
Total Rebounds/Gm 36.7 39.5 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.1 28.2
Effective FG % 55.3 53.9 Blocks/Game 3.8 6.3
Off Rebound % 30.3 27.3 Steals/Game 6.7 5.6
FTA/FGA 0.282 0.335 Personal Fouls/Gm 20.1 14.6
Turnover % 14.8 13.1
My Stats Comparison KU KSU
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.37 +1.54
inconsistency 9.92 12.36
trend +0.02 ± 0.43 -0.59 ± 0.51
mental toughness -0.47 ± 0.25 -0.13 ± 0.20
average total pts 145.89 165.47
Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, in conference:
KU -6 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
KSU -9 UCF at home (-13 neutral court)
KU +7 KSU on road (+11 neutral court)
Players to Watch
================
most minutes P. J. Haggerty (guard)
most points P. J. Haggerty (guard)
most rebounds P. J. Haggerty (guard)
most assists P. J. Haggerty (guard)
most steals Nate Johnson (guard)
most blocks Dorin Buca (center)
most turnovers P. J. Haggerty (guard)
most fouls Elias Rapieque (forward)
most patients Julian Bashir (doctor, DS9)
Sharpshooter Abdi Bashir Jr. is out following surgery for a stress fracture; he
is second on the team in points per game. Forward Khamari McGriff is questionable
for the game; he is fifth on the team in points per game. Forward Elias Rapieque
is also questionable for the game; he doesn't score much, but averages nearly
18 minutes per game. Perhaps these injuries are responsible for Kansas State's
rough start in conference action. Anyway, it seems the key to winning the game is
to put Marcus Garrett on Haggerty. Oh wait...
14-5 10-9
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Kansas State
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey +5.00 77 72 68 # 16 # 3 # 79 # 57
Pomeroy +7.51 86 79 76.1 # 17 # 2 # 84 # 43
Greenfield +4.50 83 78.5 # 17 # 7 # 67 # 59
Dunkel +1.50 79 78 # 22 # 89
Vegas (via Dunkel) +4.50 82 78
Dolphin Predictive +7.67 82 74 73.9 # 16 # 6 # 78 # 51
DPPI +4.80 80 75 63.9 # 16 # 1 # 88 # 46
ESPN Bet/BPI +4.50 82.5 78 # 15 # 3 # 67 # 43
Whitlock +6.31 # 18 # 2 # 89 # 33
Colley Matrix +7.00 # 17 # 2 # 94 # 30
Donchess +5.90 83 77 70.1 # 17 # 2 # 68 # 46
Haslametrics +8.93 83 74 # 23 # 96
INCCStats +7.00 82 75 75.2 # 19 # 85
common opponents +7.00
NCAA NET # 18 # 82
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 18 # 88
Pomeroy offense # 38 # 75
Pomeroy defense # 13 #103
Pomeroy tempo #189 # 18
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +5.87 81.8 76.2 71.2
scatter 1.88 2.4 2.3 4.7
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 21-10:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #238 Green Bay 94 51 +23.00 +20.00
AWAY # 33 North Carolina 74 87 +0.20 -13.20
HOME #183 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 77 46 +21.27 +9.73
HOME #230 Princeton 76 57 +23.15 -4.15
NEUT # 3 Duke 66 78 -5.19 -6.81
NEUT # 83 Notre Dame 71 61 +9.74 +0.26
NEUT # 71 Syracuse 71 60 +9.14 +1.86
NEUT # 23 Tennessee 81 76 +1.25 +3.75
HOME # 11 Connecticut 56 61 +1.31 -6.31
NEUT # 55 Missouri 80 69 +7.13 +3.87
AWAY # 28 N.C. State 77 76 -0.57 +1.57
HOME #159 Towson 73 49 +19.16 +4.84
HOME #130 Davidson 90 61 +17.64 +11.36
AWAY # 46 UCF 75 81 +2.91 -8.91
HOME # 53 TCU 104 100 +10.40 -6.40
AWAY # 58 West Virginia 75 86 +3.38 -14.38
HOME # 5 Iowa St. 84 63 -0.25 +21.25
HOME # 48 Baylor 80 62 +9.81 +8.19
AWAY # 80 Colorado 75 69 +6.46 -0.46
AWAY # 84 Kansas St. 86 79 +7.51 0.761
HOME # 14 BYU 82 79 +2.66 0.599
AWAY # 19 Texas Tech 76 80 -3.43 0.373
HOME #115 Utah 89 71 +17.40 0.950
HOME # 2 Arizona 78 81 -3.11 0.384
AWAY # 5 Iowa St. 73 80 -7.25 0.247
AWAY # 66 Oklahoma St. 87 81 +6.02 0.715
HOME # 54 Cincinnati 77 66 +10.89 0.848
HOME # 4 Houston 70 70 -0.07 0.497
AWAY # 2 Arizona 75 85 -10.11 0.170
AWAY # 92 Arizona St. 85 77 +7.92 0.773
HOME # 84 Kansas St. 90 75 +14.51 0.915
Here is Kansas State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #309 UNC Greensboro 93 64 +19.69 +9.31
HOME #285 Bellarmine 98 71 +17.48 +9.52
HOME # 74 California 99 96 +2.51 +0.49
HOME # 60 Tulsa 84 83 +1.12 -0.12
NEUT # 85 Mississippi St. 98 77 +0.51 +20.49
NEUT # 12 Nebraska 85 86 -12.21 +11.21
AWAY # 35 Indiana 69 86 -10.40 -6.60
HOME #112 Bowling Green 66 82 +6.81 -22.81
HOME # 49 Seton Hall 67 78 -0.62 -10.38
HOME #365 Mississippi Valley St. 108 49 +34.75 +24.25
AWAY # 52 Creighton 83 76 -7.10 +14.10
HOME #281 South Dakota 106 76 +18.52 +11.48
HOME #358 Louisiana Monroe 94 85 +28.28 -19.28
HOME # 14 BYU 73 83 -8.88 -1.12
AWAY # 2 Arizona 76 101 -22.15 -2.85
AWAY # 92 Arizona St. 84 87 -2.68 -0.32
HOME # 46 UCF 73 82 -0.89 -8.11
AWAY # 66 Oklahoma St. 83 84 -5.19 +4.19
HOME #115 Utah 81 78 +7.21 -4.21
HOME # 17 Kansas 79 86 -7.51 0.239
AWAY # 58 West Virginia 74 80 -6.38 0.273
HOME # 5 Iowa St. 78 90 -11.58 0.137
AWAY # 53 TCU 77 84 -7.06 0.252
HOME # 54 Cincinnati 79 79 +0.23 0.509
AWAY # 4 Houston 69 87 -17.74 0.047
HOME # 48 Baylor 88 88 -0.82 0.469
AWAY # 19 Texas Tech 78 93 -14.47 0.086
AWAY # 80 Colorado 86 90 -4.08 0.350
HOME # 53 TCU 80 81 -0.06 0.498
HOME # 58 West Virginia 78 77 +0.62 0.523
AWAY # 17 Kansas 75 90 -14.51 0.085
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, Bayhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, hoshi, jaythawk1
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