predictions for Colorado game

And now for the acid test.  Were the strong showings Kansas put up against
Iowa State and Baylor the result of being at home, or a response to the
players only meeting?  With the next two games on the road, we'll soon find
out.  To be sure, these next two opponents are not of the same caliber as
Iowa State and Baylor, so winning both road games may not mean all that much.
A lot depends on HOW the games are won, assuming that winning happens in the
first place, which is no guarantee on the road.  BYU found that out the hard
way on Saturday.  As did TCU,  And Iowa State as well.

It's worth noting that the Jayhawks will not be at full strength, as Self did
not travel to Boulder, instead traveling to Lawrence Memorial, apparently.
Mixed reports, but I'm not keen on spreading rumors.

All thirteen of the usual prognosticators agree on Kansas being favored, by
anywhere from 2 to 13 points.  The common opponent comparison is, however, a
naysayer.  Both Kansas and Colorado played to an 11 point road loss to West
Virginia, making for a toss-up on a neutral court, but a 4 point loss on the
road.  But that is what we might call "singly connected".  Kansas played 15
points below expectation in that game, while Colorado played only 5 points
below expectation.  As we get deeper into the conference season, the number of
common opponents will grow significantly, producing a more robust statistical
comparison, but I wouldn't read too much into a single comparison.

Neither team's trend is statistically significant, while the negative mental
toughness value for Kansas actually helps against weaker teams.  Taken together,
the advantage for Kansas is around 8.7 points, a bit more than the 5.4 point
advantage that you get from averaging all fourteen predictions.

The game is at altitude.  Whoever is designated head coach might have to dig
deeper into the bench to give the starters a breather.

A 6 p.m. tip-off, Hawaii time, is pretty unusual.  Normally I'd love the late
start, but it does overlap with another evening activity,  I might be relying
on the DVR for this one.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      CU      KU      Defensive Stats      CU      KU
Points/Game         83.2    78.0     Opp Points/Game     77.2    67.5
Avg Score Margin    +5.9   +10.5     Opp Effective FG %  51.4    44.5
Assists/Game        15.9    15.1     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.4     8.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.1    39.2     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.1    27.8
Effective FG %      54.1    53.9     Blocks/Game          3.8     6.3
Off Rebound %       30.9    27.1     Steals/Game          6.3     5.8
FTA/FGA            0.396   0.329     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.3    14.6
Turnover %          12.6    13.0   

My Stats Comparison        KU              CU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.48           +0.59    
inconsistency         10.22            7.99    
trend                 +0.07 ± 0.48    -0.26 ± 0.37
mental toughness      -0.47 ± 0.26    +0.14 ± 0.22         
average total pts     146.00          160.39 

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, in conference:

KU  -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court)
CU  -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU   -4 CU  on road (  0 neutral court)

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Barrington Hargress (guard)
most points        Isaiah Johnson (guard)
most rebounds      Bangot Dak (forward)
most assists       Barrington Hargress (guard)
most steals        Isaiah Johnson (guard)
most blocks        Bangot Dak (forward)
most turnovers     Sebastian Rancik (forward)
most fouls         Elijah Malone (center)

                                                          13-5           12-6
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Colorado
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +5.00   77   72       68       # 17   #  4    # 66   # 74
Pomeroy                 +6.57   85   78       73.3     # 19   #  2    # 79   # 90
Greenfield              +5.00   80   75                # 17   #  4    # 77   # 82
Dunkel                 +13.50   81   68                # 23           # 65
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.50   80   76                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +7.90   81   73       74.7     # 16   #  5    # 85   # 84
DPPI                    +4.20   79   75       63.8     # 17   #  1    # 96   # 55 
ESPN Bet/BPI            +4.50   80   75.5              # 16   #  3    # 91   # 73
Whitlock                +2.43                          # 20   #  4    # 61   # 66
Colley Matrix           +3.20                          # 20   #  3    # 65   # 73 
Donchess                +7.00   79   72       72.3     # 17   #  2    # 70   # 73
Haslametrics            +9.20   82   72                # 19           # 92
INCCStats               +7.00   80   73       74.8     # 19           # 77
common opponents        -4.00                                   
NCAA NET                                               # 17           # 76
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 18           # 75
Pomeroy offense                                        # 35           # 62
Pomeroy defense                                        # 13           #124
Pomeroy tempo                                          #184           #102
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +5.43   80.4 73.6     71.2 
scatter                  3.90    2.0  2.7      4.4

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 21-10:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #240 Green Bay                   94  51   +23.03   +19.97
AWAY   # 36 North Carolina              74  87    +0.83   -13.83
HOME   #184 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +21.27    +9.73
HOME   #229 Princeton                   76  57   +23.27    -4.27
NEUT   #  3 Duke                        66  78    -5.11    -6.89
NEUT   # 75 Notre Dame                  71  61    +9.02    +0.98
NEUT   # 68 Syracuse                    71  60    +8.94    +2.06
NEUT   # 22 Tennessee                   81  76    +1.26    +3.74
HOME   # 11 Connecticut                 56  61    +1.22    -6.22
NEUT   # 55 Missouri                    80  69    +7.17    +3.83
AWAY   # 30 N.C. State                  77  76    -0.12    +1.12
HOME   #170 Towson                      73  49   +20.11    +3.89
HOME   #129 Davidson                    90  61   +17.54   +11.46
AWAY   # 43 UCF                         75  81    +1.87    -7.87
HOME   # 53 TCU                        104 100   +10.15    -6.15
AWAY   # 60 West Virginia               75  86    +4.07   -15.07
HOME   #  8 Iowa St.                    84  63    +0.25   +20.75
HOME   # 41 Baylor                      80  62    +8.65    +9.35
AWAY   # 79 Colorado                    85  78    +6.57             0.733
AWAY   # 82 Kansas St.                  88  80    +7.22             0.752
HOME   # 15 BYU                         83  80    +2.44             0.591
AWAY   # 21 Texas Tech                  77  80    -2.56             0.405
HOME   #116 Utah                        90  73   +17.51             0.951
HOME   #  2 Arizona                     80  83    -2.78             0.396
AWAY   #  8 Iowa St.                    74  81    -6.75             0.262
AWAY   # 67 Oklahoma St.                89  83    +6.15             0.719
HOME   # 54 Cincinnati                  78  68   +10.32             0.835
HOME   #  5 Houston                     71  71    -0.23             0.491
AWAY   #  2 Arizona                     77  86    -9.78             0.178
AWAY   # 86 Arizona St.                 86  79    +7.12             0.750
HOME   # 82 Kansas St.                  91  77   +14.22             0.910

Here is Colorado's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #150 Montana St.                 84  78    +9.74    -3.74
HOME   #234 Eastern Washington         102  97   +14.89    -9.89
HOME   # 66 Providence                  97  88    +2.31    +6.69
HOME   #305 Alabama St.                 94  66   +19.55    +8.45
HOME   #162 UC Davis                    95  79   +11.02    +4.98
NEUT   #105 San Francisco               79  69    +2.73    +7.27
NEUT   # 52 Washington                  81  68    -3.31   +16.31
HOME   #138 Cal Baptist                 78  70    +8.77    -0.77
AWAY   # 93 Colorado St.                86  91    -2.30    -2.70
HOME   #345 UTSA                        88  64   +23.89    +0.11
HOME   #157 Portland St.                84  73   +10.59    +0.41
NEUT   # 76 Stanford                    68  77    -0.35    -8.65
HOME   #175 Northern Colorado           81  86   +11.84   -16.84
AWAY   # 86 Arizona St.                 95  89    -3.07    +9.07
HOME   #116 Utah                        85  73    +7.58    +4.42
HOME   # 21 Texas Tech                  71  73    -5.61    +3.61
AWAY   # 54 Cincinnati                  68  77    -6.81    -2.19
AWAY   # 60 West Virginia               61  72    -5.11    -5.89
HOME   # 19 Kansas                      78  85    -6.57             0.267
HOME   # 43 UCF                         85  86    -1.29             0.451
AWAY   #  8 Iowa St.                    74  91   -16.96             0.054
HOME   # 53 TCU                         80  79    +0.27             0.510
AWAY   # 41 Baylor                      82  90    -8.36             0.215
HOME   # 86 Arizona St.                 89  86    +3.93             0.645
AWAY   # 21 Texas Tech                  77  90   -12.61             0.117
AWAY   # 15 BYU                         79  94   -15.09             0.077
HOME   # 67 Oklahoma St.                92  89    +2.45             0.592
HOME   # 82 Kansas St.                  91  87    +3.65             0.635
AWAY   #  5 Houston                     67  84   -16.78             0.056
AWAY   #116 Utah                        87  86    +0.58             0.522
HOME   #  2 Arizona                     80  93   -13.58             0.100