Big XII projection, Round 5

Iowa State's stunning road loss to Cincinnati dropped the Cyclones into third place behind
Arizona and Houston.  It also took some of the lustre off of the Kansas win, dropping the
Jayhawks from #15 in Pomeroy's post-Friday rankings, to #19.  We're still mired in sixth
place, thanks to Tech's upset of BYU (even though it was a home game for the Red Raiders).

And now the byes have started.  Five games on Tuesday, two games on Wednesday, and two teams
with byes in Round 6, both of which are ahead of Kansas in the wins column, so here's a chance
for Kansas to play catch-up.

                      Init   Rd 1   Rd 2   Rd 3   Rd 4   Rd 5   
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game and Prediction
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  ------------------------
#  2  Arizona        14.903 14.987 15.043 15.379 15.094 15.268   5  0  Wed  UC   86  69
#  5  Houston        12.402 12.680 12.888 13.804 14.226 14.471   5  0  bye
#  8  Iowa State     14.726 14.953 15.318 15.265 13.922 12.768   3  2  Tue  UCF  87  75
# 15  BYU            12.702 12.945 13.152 13.115 13.132 12.260   4  1  bye
# 21  Texas Tech     10.530 10.715 10.532 10.768 10.713 11.503   4  1  Tue @BU   83  82  road win
# 19  Kansas         11.159 10.213 10.281  9.190 10.617 10.996   3  2  Tue @CU   84  77  road win
# 43  UCF             8.560  9.660  8.905  8.951  9.738  9.595   3  2  Tue @ISU  75  87
# 60  West Virginia   6.956  6.788  7.081  8.359  7.940  8.476   3  2  Wed @ASU  76  77
# 54  Cincinnati      6.568  6.262  5.913  5.790  6.218  7.570   2  3  Wed @UA   69  86
# 52  TCU             7.460  8.339  8.325  7.954  8.216  7.395   1  4  Tue  OSU  86  80
# 41  Baylor          9.398  8.483  8.120  6.872  7.831  7.325   1  4  Tue  TTU  82  83  home loss
# 66  Oklahoma State  6.461  6.036  6.943  7.222  6.069  6.278   2  3  Tue @TCU  80  86
# 79  Colorado        6.138  7.055  7.322  7.089  6.622  6.258   2  3  Tue  KU   77  84  home loss
# 85  Arizona State   6.341  5.513  5.147  5.616  5.876  5.549   1  4  Wed  WVU  77  76
# 81  Kansas State    6.219  6.013  5.942  5.413  4.660  4.318   0  5  Tue  UU   92  85
#116  Utah            3.479  3.358  3.086  3.213  3.127  3.972   1  4  Tue @KSU  85  92

Finally, everybody is in plus territory in strength of schedule.

Rank  Big XII Team   Sched.
----  -------------- ------
#  2  Kansas         +13.01
#  6  Texas Tech     +10.46
#  7  Arizona State  +10.15
# 17  Baylor          +8.68
# 29  Kansas State    +7.62
# 32  BYU             +7.20
# 36  Arizona         +6.64
# 46  Utah            +5.83
# 49  UCF             +5.72
# 56  Houston         +5.42
# 60  Iowa State      +5.24
# 61  Cincinnati      +5.23
# 87  TCU             +3.62
# 88  Oklahoma State  +3.58
# 92  Colorado        +3.38
#157  West Virginia   +0.29

Four road wins had been projected for Round 5.  Iowa State failed to earn theirs.  So did
TCU.  So did BYU.  Only Arizona succeeded.  Just two road wins projected for Round 6.

Road wins (12 out of  40)                     Home losses                                     RW-HL
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------- -------
3 Arizona      UU  TCU UCF                    0 Arizona                                      +3 UA 
2 BYU          KSU UU                         0 BYU                                          +2 BYU
2 Houston      UC  BU                         0 Houston                                      +2 UH 
1 Baylor       OSU                            0 Iowa St.                                     +1 ISU
1 UCF          KSU                            0 Kansas                                       +1 TTU
1 Colorado     ASU                            0 Texas Tech                                    0 UCF
1 Iowa St.     BU                             0 W. Virginia                                   0 CU
1 Texas Tech   CU                             1 Arizona St.  CU                               0 KU
0 Arizona St.                                 1 UCF          UA                               0 WVU
0 Cincinnati                                  1 Cincinnati   UH                              -1 ASU
0 Kansas                                      1 Colorado     TTU                             -1 BU
0 Kansas St.                                  1 Oklahoma St. BU                              -1 UC 
0 Oklahoma St.                                1 TCU          UA                              -1 OSU
0 TCU                                         2 Baylor       ISU UH                          -1 TCU
0 Utah                                        2 Kansas St.   BYU UCF                         -2 KSU
0 W. Virginia                                 2 Utah         UA  BYU                         -2 UU