predictions for Baylor game

Did Iowa State suffer from overconfidence?  After all, Kansas was
completely underwhelming in its first three conference games, losing
both road contests against middle-tier conference opponents, and
needing a near miracle to win its one home game, also against a
middle-tier opponent.  If the Cyclones did indeed suffer from
overfidence, then it is now safe to say that nobody else in the
Big XII will take the Jayhawks lightly, so that advantage is now gone.

Was it the result of the players-only meeting?  For the first time,
the rest of the team didn't seem to defer to Peterson.  As a result,
Peterson's scoring was down a bit, but scoring by others was up.

Or was it just one of those statistical fluctuations?  They happen.
Iowa State blew out a highly regarded Purdue team in similar fashion.
The law of averages may have simply caught up with the Cyclones.  The
only way we'll know is to see if Kansas can consistently exceed
expectations, until such time as its power rating matches reality.
The first opportunity to find out will be when Baylor strolls into
Allen Field House for a rare Friday conference game.

Baylor is another one of those middle-tier opponents that have been
giving the Jayhawks all kinds of problems.  But none of the fourteen
prognosticators is picking against the Jayhawks.  Predicted margins
range from 6 points (Massey) to 20 points (common opponents), with
an average of 9.2 points and a scatter of 3.9 points.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      BU      KU      Defensive Stats      BU      KU
Points/Game         86.3    77.9     Opp Points/Game     75.5    67.8
Avg Score Margin   +10.8   +10.1     Opp Effective FG %  48.5    44.4
Assists/Game        16.3    15.1     Off Rebounds/Gm     12.8     8.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   39.6    39.3     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.5    27.7
Effective FG %      55.0    53.8     Blocks/Game          5.0     6.2
Off Rebound %       39.9    27.5     Steals/Game          6.6     5.6
FTA/FGA            0.394   0.337     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.3    14.8
Turnover %          13.5    13.4   

My Stats Comparison        KU              BU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.48           +1.95    
inconsistency         10.61           12.45    
trend                 -0.07 ± 0.54    +0.36 ± 0.77
mental toughness      -0.43 ± 0.27    -0.54 ± 0.24         
average total pts     146.24          161.87 

Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, both in conference:

KU   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral court)
BU   -6 TCU on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU   +6 BU  at home ( +2 neutral court)

KU  +21 ISU at home (+17 neutral court)
BU  -10 ISU at home (-14 neutral court)
KU  +35 BU  at home (+31 neutral court)

That's an average of +20.5, thanks to the Iowa State comparison.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Obi Agbim (guard)
most points        Cameron Carr (guard)
most rebounds      Caden Powell (center)
most assists       Obi Agbim (guard)
most steals        Tounde Yessoufou (guard)
most blocks        Cameron Carr (guard)
most turnovers     Tounde Yessoufou (guard)
most fouls         Isaac Williams IV (guard)

Reserve guard J. J. White is out with a foot injury; he averages 6.5 minutes and
1.5 points per game.  Reserve forward Maikcol Perez is out for the season with a
knee injury.  Reserve center Justin Bobo Bobo is out for the season with an arm
injury.  The only player with significant playing time and scoring that is
questionable for the game is guard Dan Skillings; he is actually their second-best
rebounder.

                                                          12-5           11-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Baylor
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +5.00   78   73       67       # 19   #  3    # 34   # 38
Pomeroy                 +7.87   85   77       77.2     # 17   #  2    # 40   # 29
Greenfield              +7.50   81   74                # 17   #  5    # 35   # 30
Dunkel                 +14.50   82   68                # 26           # 41
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +7.50   82   74       78.1                             
Dolphin Predictive      +7.39   82   75       73.0     # 16   #  4    # 41   # 29
DPPI                    +8.20   82   74       72.2     # 16   #  1    # 46   # 45 
ESPN Bet/BPI            +7.50   81.5 74                # 17   #  3    # 41   # 61
Whitlock                +9.14                          # 20   #  4    # 57   # 68
Colley Matrix           +9.63                          # 29   #  6    # 83   # 81 
Donchess                +8.10   79   71       76.3     # 17   #  2    # 42   # 41
Haslametrics            +9.46   82   72                # 19           # 45
INCCStats               +6.00   80   74       72.0     # 18           # 37
common opponents       +20.50                                   
NCAA NET                                               # 17           # 44
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 21           # 49
Pomeroy offense                                        # 34           # 14
Pomeroy defense                                        # 15           # 94
Pomeroy tempo                                          #180           #148
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +9.16   81.3 73.3     73.7 
scatter                  3.92    1.9  2.3      3.9

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 21-10:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #224 Green Bay                   94  51   +22.21   +20.79
AWAY   # 35 North Carolina              74  87    +0.14   -13.14
HOME   #180 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +21.04    +9.96
HOME   #228 Princeton                   76  57   +23.19    -4.19
NEUT   #  7 Duke                        66  78    -3.93    -8.07
NEUT   # 71 Notre Dame                  71  61    +8.42    +1.58
NEUT   # 58 Syracuse                    71  60    +8.01    +2.99
NEUT   # 19 Tennessee                   81  76    +0.60    +4.40
HOME   #  9 Connecticut                 56  61    +0.29    -5.29
NEUT   # 54 Missouri                    80  69    +6.65    +4.35
AWAY   # 25 N.C. State                  77  76    -1.50    +2.50
HOME   #170 Towson                      73  49   +19.78    +4.22
HOME   #131 Davidson                    90  61   +17.43   +11.57
AWAY   # 43 UCF                         75  81    +1.81    -7.81
HOME   # 52 TCU                        104 100    +9.45    -5.45
AWAY   # 66 West Virginia               75  86    +4.34   -15.34
HOME   #  3 Iowa St.                    84  63    -1.14   +22.14
HOME   # 40 Baylor                      85  77    +7.87             0.772
AWAY   # 76 Colorado                    84  78    +6.04             0.716
AWAY   # 82 Kansas St.                  87  80    +7.04             0.747
HOME   # 13 BYU                         82  80    +1.31             0.549
AWAY   # 23 Texas Tech                  77  79    -2.15             0.420
HOME   #122 Utah                        89  71   +17.64             0.952
HOME   #  2 Arizona                     79  83    -3.23             0.380
AWAY   #  3 Iowa St.                    72  80    -8.14             0.221
AWAY   # 64 Oklahoma St.                88  82    +5.58             0.701
HOME   # 56 Cincinnati                  78  66   +11.49             0.861
HOME   #  8 Houston                     70  70    +0.02             0.501
AWAY   #  2 Arizona                     76  86   -10.23             0.167
AWAY   # 78 Arizona St.                 84  78    +6.27             0.723
HOME   # 82 Kansas St.                  91  77   +14.04             0.908

Here is Baylor's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #216 UT Rio Grande Valley        96  81   +18.91    -3.91
HOME   # 50 Washington                  78  69    +4.93    +4.07
HOME   #174 Tarleton St.                94  81   +17.62    -4.62
NEUT   # 53 Creighton                   81  74    +1.73    +5.27
NEUT   # 18 St. John's                  81  96    -3.97   -11.03
NEUT   # 45 San Diego St.               91  81    +1.10    +8.90
HOME   #286 Sacramento St.             110  88   +24.60    -2.60
AWAY   # 89 Memphis                     71  78    +2.98    -9.98
HOME   #294 Norfolk St.                 97  67   +23.79    +6.21
HOME   #343 Alcorn St.                 113  56   +28.67   +28.33
HOME   #264 Southern                   111  67   +22.98   +21.02
Div2        Arlington Baptist          124  61
AWAY   # 52 TCU                         63  69    -1.87    -4.13
HOME   #  3 Iowa St.                    60  70    -5.57    -4.43
HOME   #  8 Houston                     55  77    -4.08   -17.92
AWAY   # 64 Oklahoma St.                94  79    +0.88   +14.12
AWAY   # 17 Kansas                      77  85    -7.87             0.228
HOME   # 23 Texas Tech                  83  82    +0.50             0.519
HOME   # 52 TCU                         81  76    +5.13             0.686
AWAY   # 56 Cincinnati                  77  77    +0.07             0.503
AWAY   # 66 West Virginia               75  75    +0.32             0.512
HOME   # 76 Colorado                    90  81    +8.62             0.792
AWAY   #  3 Iowa St.                    74  87   -12.57             0.117
HOME   # 13 BYU                         84  87    -3.26             0.379
NEUT   # 20 Louisville                  85  88    -3.54             0.369
AWAY   # 82 Kansas St.                  90  87    +2.40             0.590
HOME   # 78 Arizona St.                 90  81    +8.84             0.798
HOME   #  2 Arizona                     82  90    -7.89             0.228
AWAY   # 43 UCF                         83  86    -2.60             0.403
AWAY   #  8 Houston                     69  80   -11.08             0.147
HOME   #122 Utah                        92  78   +13.30             0.896