Big XII projection, Round 4

Arizona won, but played almost 14 points below expectation, so the Wildcats lost some
ground.  Iowa State played 22 points below expectation and lost their game, surrendering
second place to Houston in the process.  Kansas regained more than what it lost after the
West Virginia loss, but not quite enough to overtake Texas Tech.

One conference game on Friday, six on Saturday, and one on Sunday.

                      Init   Rd 1   Rd 2   Rd 3   Rd 4   
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game and Prediction
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  ------------------------
#  2  Arizona        14.903 14.987 15.043 15.379 15.094   4  0  Sat @UCF  89  80 road win
#  7  Houston        12.402 12.680 12.888 13.804 14.226   4  0  Sun  ASU  82  66
#  3  Iowa State     14.726 14.953 15.318 15.265 13.922   3  1  Sat @UC   76  67 road win
# 13  BYU            12.702 12.945 13.152 13.115 13.132   4  0  Sat @TTU  83  82 road win
# 23  Texas Tech     10.530 10.715 10.532 10.768 10.713   3  1  Sat  BYU  82  83 home loss
# 17  Kansas         11.159 10.213 10.281  9.190 10.617   2  2  Fri  BU   84  76
# 44  UCF             8.560  9.660  8.905  8.951  9.738   3  1  Sat  UA   80  89 home loss
# 52  TCU             7.460  8.339  8.325  7.954  8.216   1  3  Sat @UU   80  76 road win
# 65  West Virginia   6.956  6.788  7.081  8.359  7.940   2  2  Sat  CU   77  73
# 40  Baylor          9.398  8.483  8.120  6.872  7.831   1  3  Fri @KU   76  84
# 77  Colorado        6.138  7.055  7.322  7.089  6.622   2  2  Sat @WVU  73  77
# 56  Cincinnati      6.568  6.262  5.913  5.790  6.218   1  3  Sat  ISU  67  76 home loss
# 63  Oklahoma State  6.461  6.036  6.943  7.222  6.069   1  3  Sat  KSU  95  90
# 79  Arizona State   6.341  5.513  5.147  5.616  5.876   1  3  Sun @UH   66  82
# 82  Kansas State    6.219  6.013  5.942  5.413  4.660   0  4  Sat @OSU  90  95
#120  Utah            3.479  3.358  3.086  3.213  3.127   0  4  Sat  TCU  76  80 home loss

Everybody gained ground in strength of schedule.

Rank  Big XII Team   Sched.
----  -------------- ------
#  2  Kansas         +13.41
#  7  Texas Tech      +9.40
# 11  Arizona State   +8.71
# 30  Baylor          +6.96
# 31  Kansas State    +6.96
# 44  BYU             +5.94
# 47  Arizona         +5.61
# 52  Houston         +5.21
# 53  Utah            +5.18
# 70  UCF             +4.15
# 77  Iowa State      +3.85
# 86  Oklahoma State  +3.36
# 88  Cincinnati      +3.27
# 96  TCU             +2.98
#111  Colorado        +2.26
#189  West Virginia   -0.41

Four road wins projected for Round 5.

Road wins (11 out of  32)                     Home losses                                     RW-HL
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------- -------
2 Arizona      UU  TCU                        0 Arizona                                      +2 UA 
2 BYU          KSU UU                         0 BYU                                          +2 BYU
2 Houston      UC  BU                         0 Houston                                      +2 UH 
1 Baylor       OSU                            0 Iowa St.                                     +1 UCF
1 Colorado     ASU                            0 Kansas                                       +1 ISU
1 Iowa St.     BU                             0 Texas Tech                                   +1 TTU
1 Texas Tech   CU                             0 W. Virginia                                   0 CU
1 UCF          KSU                            0 UCF                                           0 KU
0 Arizona St.                                 1 Arizona St.  CU                               0 WVU
0 Cincinnati                                  1 Cincinnati   UH                              -1 ASU
0 Kansas                                      1 Colorado     TTU                             -1 UC 
0 Kansas St.                                  1 Oklahoma St. BU                              -1 OSU
0 Oklahoma St.                                1 TCU          UA                              -1 TCU
0 TCU                                         2 Baylor       ISU UH                          -1 BU
0 Utah                                        2 Kansas St.   BYU UCF                         -2 KSU
0 W. Virginia                                 2 Utah         UA  BYU                         -2 UU