predictions for Iowa State game

Why does this game feel so unwinnable?  The numbers says it's a two-possession
affair.  Is it because Iowa State played 20 points better than Kansas did against
their two common opponents?  Is it because Kansas has played below expectation in
all three of its conference games?  Is it because of what I call "the Peterson
Effect", in which the rest of the team defers to the superstar?

It looked like the Jayhawks had gelled, had figured out how to play with Peterson
on the bench, and in fact played above expectation in seven out of eight games
starting with the Players Era Festival, the only hiccup being the home game with
UConn.  Then Peterson returned to coincide with the start of conference play, and
the Jayhawks have looked like a completely different team.  Against the non-conference
opponents, the low water mark was when Kansas surrendered 87 points to North Carolina.
Second-worst came against Duke, with just 78 points given up.  In conference play,
it's been 81, 87 (in regulation), and 86 points allowed.  Yes, the Big XII is a tough
conference, but eight of the thirteen non-conference games were against Pomeroy's
top 70, which should have prepared the Jayhawks for conference action.

Oddly enough, Iowa State shows a negative trend, only two-thirds as large as the
negative trend for Kansas, though the trend is more statistically significant for
the Jayhawks than it is for Iowa State.  Of course, the trend for Iowa State is
because they haven't been able to duplicate the success they had in the three-game
stretch against Syracuse, Alcorn State, and Purdue, when they played 16, 24, and 24
points above expectation.  Take those three games away, and Iowa State has played
remarkably consistently, all within single digits of expectation.

If you look at how Iowa State has done against opponents ranked similarly to Kansas,
they eked out a 1 point victory over #18 St. John's on a neutral court, and beat
in-state rival #21 Iowa by 4 in the friendly confines of Hilton.  This should be
a winnable game for Kansas.  Maybe it would be if Peterson doesn't play.

I still think this team has great post-season potential, given that there are 15
more games during which the team can figure out how to gel with Peterson in the
line-up, but I don't see that happening in time to have any chance at a conference
championship.  A conference tournament championship is a different matter.

As shown below, the two common opponents call for an 18 point loss for Kansas.
Dunkel is picking the Jayhawks to win by 1.5 points.  Everybody else has the
Jayhawks losing by anywhere from 1 point (Massey) to 8 points (Donchess).  The
average of 14 predictions is about 4.5 points in favor of the Cyclones.  Iowa State
has Pomeroy's #2 defense; the most they've allowed is 82 points to St. John's.
Kansas used to be Pomeroy's #6 defense, but that has sagged to #14.  Could be a
low-scoring game.  But it wouldn't be the first time that a high-scoring game
occurred when a low-scoring game was expected.  Keep in mind that the standard
deviation for college basketball games is up around 9 to 10 points, and I keep
telling myself that Kansas is due for an above expectation performance.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     ISU      KU      Defensive Stats     ISU      KU
Points/Game         88.0    77.5     Opp Points/Game     62.9    68.1
Avg Score Margin   +25.1    +9.4     Opp Effective FG %  47.6    44.5
Assists/Game        18.8    15.0     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.3     8.4
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.1    39.4     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.4    27.8
Effective FG %      59.1    53.4     Blocks/Game          3.4     6.1
Off Rebound %       35.2    27.1     Steals/Game          9.8     5.5
FTA/FGA            0.360   0.346     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.8    15.2
Turnover %          12.6    13.5   

My Stats Comparison        KU             ISU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.47           +2.85    
inconsistency          9.20           10.75    
trend                 -0.60 ± 0.49    -0.40 ± 0.59
mental toughness      -0.61 ± 0.20    +0.13 ± 0.21         
average total pts     146.19          150.94 

Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents: one non-conference, namely Syrcause (at the
Players Era Festival), and one conference:

KU  +11 Syr neutral (+11 neutral court)
ISU +31 Syr neutral (+31 neutral court)
KU  -16 ISU at home (-20 neutral court)

KU  -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court)
ISU +21 WVU at home (+17 neutral court)
KU  -20 ISU at home (-24 neutral court)

That's an average of -18.  Ouch.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Joshua Jefferson (forward)
most points        Joshua Jefferson (forward)
most rebounds      Joshua Jefferson (forward)
most assists       Tamin Lipsey (guard)
most steals        Tamin Lipsey (guard)
most blocks        Blake Buchanan (forward)
most turnovers     Joshua Jefferson (forward)
most fouls         Blake Buchanan (forward)

Reserve forwards Xzavion Mitchell and Eric Mulder (where's Scully?) are both
questionable for the game.  Both score only around 1 point per game.

The key to winning would seem to be putting Marcus Garrett on Jefferson.  Oh
wait...

                                                          11-5           16-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Iowa State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -1.00   72   73       48       # 23   #  3    #  2   # 32
Pomeroy                 -4.84   73   78       32.4     # 23   #  2    #  3   # 99
Greenfield              -3.50   74   77.5              # 20   #  9    #  5   # 14
Dunkel                  +1.50   71   70                # 28           #  4
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -3.50   74   78                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -2.42   73   75       41.8     # 24   #  8    #  4   # 12
DPPI                    -1.80   73   75       44.3     # 24   #  2    #  3   # 96 
ESPN Bet/BPI            -3.50   74   77.5              # 19   #  3    #  5   # 73
Whitlock                -3.60                          # 20   #  4    #  3   # 62
Colley Matrix           -2.32                          # 29   #  6    #  8   #110 
Donchess                -7.80   70   78       25.0     # 31   #  3    #  1   # 74
Haslametrics            -7.23   70   77                # 27           #  2
INCCStats               -4.00   72   75       34.4     # 24           #  3
common opponents       -18.00                                   
NCAA NET                                               # 21           #  3
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 23           #  3
Pomeroy offense                                        # 50           # 12
Pomeroy defense                                        # 14           #  2
Pomeroy tempo                                          #162           #146
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -4,43   72.4 75.8     37.7 
scatter                  4.55    1.5  2.6      8.6

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 19-12:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #239 Green Bay                   94  51   +21.63   +21.37
AWAY   # 33 North Carolina              74  87    -1.82   -11.18
HOME   #191 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +20.09   +10.91
HOME   #226 Princeton                   76  57   +21.66    -2.66
NEUT   #  8 Duke                        66  78    -4.92    -7.08
NEUT   # 68 Notre Dame                  71  61    +6.66    +3.34
NEUT   # 60 Syracuse                    71  60    +6.29    +4.71
NEUT   # 19 Tennessee                   81  76    -0.74    +5.74
HOME   #  9 Connecticut                 56  61    -1.12    -3.88
NEUT   # 57 Missouri                    80  69    +5.86    +5.14
AWAY   # 24 N.C. State                  77  76    -2.94    +3.94
HOME   #171 Towson                      73  49   +18.49    +5.51
HOME   #141 Davidson                    90  61   +16.80   +12.20
AWAY   # 45 UCF                         75  81    +0.81    -6.81
HOME   # 53 TCU                        104 100    +8.48    -4.48
AWAY   # 59 West Virginia               75  86    +2.28   -13.28
HOME   #  3 Iowa St.                    73  78    -4.84             0.324
HOME   # 42 Baylor                      84  76    +7.24             0.753
AWAY   # 76 Colorado                    83  79    +4.28             0.657
AWAY   # 77 Kansas St.                  86  81    +4.83             0.676
HOME   # 11 BYU                         81  81    -0.71             0.473
AWAY   # 22 Texas Tech                  75  79    -3.77             0.361
HOME   #122 Utah                        88  72   +16.11             0.936
HOME   #  2 Arizona                     77  83    -5.75             0.293
AWAY   #  3 Iowa St.                    69  81   -11.84             0.132
AWAY   # 55 Oklahoma St.                86  83    +2.71             0.601
HOME   # 64 Cincinnati                  77  67   +10.14             0.831
HOME   # 10 Houston                     69  70    -0.77             0.471
AWAY   #  2 Arizona                     74  86   -12.75             0.114
AWAY   # 89 Arizona St.                 83  77    +5.52             0.699
HOME   # 77 Kansas St.                  89  78   +11.83             0.868

Here is Iowa State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #350 Fairleigh Dickinson         88  50   +40.13    -2.13
HOME   #248 Grambling St.              102  62   +32.22    +7.78
NEUT   # 72 Mississippi St.             96  80   +15.96    +0.04
HOME   #346 Stonehill                   96  57   +39.03    -0.03
NEUT   # 18 St. John's                  83  82    +7.60    -6.60
NEUT   # 44 Creighton                   78  60   +12.20    +5.80
NEUT   # 60 Syracuse                    95  64   +14.63   +16.37
HOME   #335 Alcorn St.                 132  68   +39.47   +24.53
AWAY   #  4 Purdue                      81  58    -1.77   +24.77
HOME   # 21 Iowa                        66  62   +10.90    -6.90
HOME   #301 Eastern Illinois            78  53   +34.33    -9.33
HOME   #249 Long Beach St.              91  60   +32.17    -1.17
HOME   #302 Houston Christian           89  61   +34.04    -6.04
HOME   # 59 West Virginia               80  59   +17.03    +3.97
AWAY   # 42 Baylor                      70  60    +8.68    +1.32
HOME   # 55 Oklahoma St.                83  71   +18.82    -6.82
AWAY   # 23 Kansas                      78  73    +4.84             0.676
AWAY   # 64 Cincinnati                  77  66   +11.66             0.865
HOME   # 45 UCF                         88  71   +16.27             0.938
AWAY   # 55 Oklahoma St.                90  78   +11.82             0.868
HOME   # 76 Colorado                    90  71   +19.83             0.970
AWAY   # 77 Kansas St.                  90  76   +13.82             0.904
HOME   # 42 Baylor                      88  72   +15.68             0.931
AWAY   # 53 TCU                         79  69    +9.79             0.823
HOME   # 23 Kansas                      81  69   +11.84             0.868
HOME   # 10 Houston                     73  66    +6.96             0.745
AWAY   # 11 BYU                         81  80    +0.94             0.535
AWAY   #122 Utah                        88  71   +17.59             0.952
HOME   # 22 Texas Tech                  83  71   +11.49             0.861
AWAY   #  2 Arizona                     78  82    -4.01             0.352
HOME   # 89 Arizona St.                 90  69   +21.13             0.977