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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for West Virginia game
- asteroid
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20 hours 53 minutes ago #34352
by asteroid
I hate these early tips. That will come as no surprise to long-time readers.
Thirteen predictions, twelve are picking Kansas to win, by anywhere from 2 to 8
points. Dunkel is picking West Virginia by a single point. The average is 4.1
points in favor of Kansas.
Did I mention that I hate early tips? It's 7 a.m. for Hawaii.
The one stat for West Virginia that really jumps out is Pomeroy's tempo ranking
of 359. That's out of 365 teams. In other words, only six teams play more
slowly than West Virginia. That should keep the scoring down.
Did I mention that I hate early tips? Dunkel takes so damn long to post his
predictions that if I wait for them, I have to cut a night of sleep short to
both include the Dunkel prediction and be up for tip-off.
West Virginia is not particularly tall, so they don't score a lot in the paint.
If they don't go bonkers from beyond the arc (live by the three, die by the three),
Kansas should be able to win this game.
Did I mention that I hate early tips?
I've not heard anything about Peterson *not* playing, so the real question ought
to be "How much will he play?" Since Peterson returned for conference games, the
Pomeroy offensive rating for Kansas has been climbing while the defensive rating
has been falling. Here's the comparison (including the tempo, which is unchanged):
2025 Dec 29 Kansas 117.8 92.8 68.4
2026 Jan 09 Kansas 118.5 94.7 68.4
The problem is that the offense has gained only 0.7 points per 100 possessions,
while the defense has gotten worse by 1.9 points per 100 possessions. While these
numbers may look small, perhaps even negligible, keep in mind that they are
season-long stats, so two games out of fifteen would not be expected to change the
ratings by much.
Did I mention that I hate early tips?
Yeah, West Virginia isn't ranked quite as highly as either UCF or TCU, but it is
a road game, Kansas hasn't played well on the road in recent years, and Kansas has
historically had trouble in Morgantown, going 5-7 in the last twelve games there.
I really think it's a matter of team chemistry involving Peterson. The team
looked like it had really gelled by the end of the non-conference slate, ranking
as an elite defensive team. Since Peterson resumed playing at the beginning of
conference play, it looks like there is too much standing around, watching the
superstar play. Council, in particular, hasn't been scoring much while Peterson
is playing and comes on strong while Peterson is on the bench. Better integration
is needed for this team to reach its full potential.
Did I mention that I hate early tips?
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats WVU KU Defensive Stats WVU KU
Points/Game 74.1 77.7 Opp Points/Game 61.5 66.9
Avg Score Margin +12.6 +10.7 Opp Effective FG % 46.6 43.7
Assists/Game 13.8 15.3 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.3 8.3
Total Rebounds/Gm 36.1 39.9 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.2 28.2
Effective FG % 53.1 53.7 Blocks/Game 3.1 6.2
Off Rebound % 30.3 27.2 Steals/Game 7.1 5.4
FTA/FGA 0.403 0.349 Personal Fouls/Gm 14.6 14.7
Turnover % 14.2 13.9
My Stats Comparison KU WVU
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.62 +2.14
inconsistency 8.67 9.05
trend -0.29 ± 0.53 +0.03 ± 0.56
mental toughness -0.51 ± 0.20 -0.22 ± 0.17
average total pts 145.20 135.53
Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents,
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Honor Huff (guard)
most points Honor Huff (guard)
most rebounds Chance Moore (guard)
most assists Jasper Floyd (guard)
most steals Jasper Floyd (guard)
most blocks Brenen Lorient (forward)
most turnovers Jasper Floyd (guard)
most fouls Brenen Lorient (forward)
Reserve center Abraham Oyeadier is questionable for the game. He averages
0.0 points and 2.0 rebounds in 2.0 minutes per game.
11-4 10-5
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas West Virginia
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey +4.00 71 67 64 # 19 # 4 # 60 # 85
Pomeroy +4.10 71 67 65.1 # 18 # 2 # 72 #331
Greenfield +3.50 70 66.5 # 17 # 7 # 68 # 78
Dunkel -1.00 74 75 # 25 # 61
Vegas (via Dunkel) +3.50 70 66
Dolphin Predictive +4.39 68 64 65.4 # 17 # 6 # 68 # 87
DPPI +2.00 71 69 56.2 # 20 # 1 # 62 #234
ESPN Bet/BPI +3.50 70 66.5 # 16 # 4 # 44 #154
Whitlock +5.21 # 16 # 4 # 84 #142
Colley Matrix +7.73 # 23 # 4 #130 #302
Donchess +5.90 72 66 70.3 # 19 # 3 # 74 #209
Haslametrics +5.25 70 65 # 23 # 72
INCCStats +5.00 70 65 68.0 # 18 # 67
common opponents
NCAA NET # 17 # 87
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 17 # 49
Pomeroy offense # 49 #106
Pomeroy defense # 11 # 54
Pomeroy tempo #168 #359
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +4,08 70.6 67.0 64.8
scatter 2.07 1.5 3.0 4.8
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 20-11:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #243 Green Bay 94 51 +22.83 +20.17
AWAY # 27 North Carolina 74 87 -1.48 -11.52
HOME #184 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 77 46 +20.71 +10.29
HOME #252 Princeton 76 57 +24.16 -5.16
NEUT # 7 Duke 66 78 -4.39 -7.61
NEUT # 60 Notre Dame 71 61 +6.74 +3.26
NEUT # 70 Syracuse 71 60 +8.15 +2.85
NEUT # 16 Tennessee 81 76 -0.88 +5.88
HOME # 8 Connecticut 56 61 -0.54 -4.46
NEUT # 52 Missouri 80 69 +6.22 +4.78
AWAY # 33 N.C. State 77 76 -0.44 +1.44
HOME #179 Towson 73 49 +19.85 +4.15
HOME #118 Davidson 90 61 +16.19 +12.81
AWAY # 44 UCF 75 81 +1.47 -7.47
HOME # 49 TCU 104 100 +9.15 -5.15
AWAY # 72 West Virginia 71 67 +4.10 0.651
HOME # 2 Iowa St. 73 77 -4.27 0.343
HOME # 34 Baylor 83 76 +6.56 0.732
AWAY # 78 Colorado 83 78 +5.36 0.694
AWAY # 74 Kansas St. 85 80 +5.49 0.698
HOME # 10 BYU 80 80 -0.06 0.498
AWAY # 20 Texas Tech 76 79 -3.09 0.385
HOME #129 Utah 87 70 +17.66 0.952
HOME # 3 Arizona 77 81 -4.32 0.342
AWAY # 2 Iowa St. 70 81 -11.27 0.143
AWAY # 59 Oklahoma St. 86 82 +4.24 0.656
HOME # 67 Cincinnati 77 65 +11.44 0.860
HOME # 11 Houston 70 69 +1.26 0.547
AWAY # 3 Arizona 73 85 -11.32 0.142
AWAY # 92 Arizona St. 83 76 +6.68 0.736
HOME # 74 Kansas St. 89 76 +12.49 0.881
Here is West Virginia's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #299 Mount St. Mary's 70 54 +18.53 -2.53
HOME #196 Campbell 73 65 +13.12 -5.12
HOME #319 Lehigh 69 47 +19.89 +2.11
HOME # 91 Pittsburgh 71 49 +4.81 +17.19
HOME #320 Lafayette 81 59 +20.08 +1.92
NEUT # 35 Clemson 67 70 -4.53 +1.53
NEUT #106 Xavier 68 78 +3.39 -13.39
HOME #307 Mercyhurst 70 38 +17.84 +14.16
HOME #364 Coppin St. 91 49 +30.59 +11.41
HOME # 66 Wake Forest 66 75 +3.04 -12.04
HOME #303 Little Rock 90 58 +18.16 +13.84
NEUT # 36 Ohio St. 88 89 -4.73 +3.73
HOME #365 Mississippi Valley St. 86 51 +32.04 +2.96
AWAY # 2 Iowa St. 59 80 -18.37 -2.63
HOME # 67 Cincinnati 62 60 +3.05 -1.05
HOME # 18 Kansas 67 71 -4.10 0.349
AWAY # 11 Houston 57 70 -12.60 0.117
HOME # 78 Colorado 76 72 +3.89 0.643
AWAY # 92 Arizona St. 73 75 -1.93 0.428
AWAY # 3 Arizona 64 83 -18.80 0.038
HOME # 74 Kansas St. 79 75 +3.64 0.634
HOME # 34 Baylor 73 75 -1.39 0.448
AWAY # 67 Cincinnati 64 68 -3.95 0.354
HOME # 20 Texas Tech 69 73 -3.66 0.365
AWAY # 44 UCF 70 77 -6.67 0.264
HOME #129 Utah 77 68 +8.88 0.799
AWAY # 49 TCU 65 70 -5.82 0.291
AWAY # 59 Oklahoma St. 76 80 -4.69 0.329
HOME # 10 BYU 70 78 -7.70 0.233
AWAY # 74 Kansas St. 75 79 -3.36 0.375
HOME # 44 UCF 74 73 +0.33 0.512
The following user(s) said Thank You: JRhawk, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi, jaythawk1
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