predictions for TCU game

We just came out of a power outage here, so I'm way behind schedule and
will keep this short.

TCU is a real head-scratcher.  They lost to New Orleans, barely a middle
tier opponent, but beat Florida.  They came within 4 points of Michigan,
who has beaten all of their subsequent opponents by at least 18, but lost
at home to a Notre Dame squad that Kansas handled by 10.  They played four
teams in the Top 100 during the non-conference portion of their schedule,
but Pomeroy isn't impressed, ranking their strength of schedule way down
at #302.  Yes, they're 3 points less consistent than Kansas.

Now that Big XII teams need to make the availability of their players a
known commodity something like 90 minutes before tip-off, we'll presumably
know later today if Peterson's leg is still bothering him.  Even if not,
and he starts, the leg could start bothering him later in the game, so
the number of minutes he plays is still a guessing game.

Nobody is picking TCU in this game.  Kansas has a pretty strong record in
Allen Field House.  The average of fourteen prognostications favors Kansas
by just under 10 points.

I've removed Real Time from the table below, as the web page remains stuck
on last season.  I've also removed Seven Overtimes, whose web site keep
redirecting to Pomeroy's.  For now I'm keeping LRMC, because they have a
history of not getting on board until just before tournament time.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     TCU      KU      Defensive Stats     TCU      KU
Points/Game         79.5    75.8     Opp Points/Game     64.6    64.6
Avg Score Margin   +14.9   +11.2     Opp Effective FG %  47.5    42.5
Assists/Game        16.7    15.4     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.3     8.4
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.4    40.1     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.8    28.2
Effective FG %      52.7    53.3     Blocks/Game          5.6     6.3
Off Rebound %       34.0    27.4     Steals/Game          8.2     5.2
FTA/FGA            0.361   0.327     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.8    14.4
Turnover %          13.6    13.9   

My Stats Comparison        KU             TCU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.74           +3.17    
inconsistency          8.65           11.60    
trend                 -0.10 ± 0.60    +0.64 ± 0.78
mental toughness      -0.54 ± 0.19    +0.08 ± 0.24         
average total pts     141.00          144.07 

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Notre Dame:

KU  +10 ND  neutral (+10 neutral court)
TCU  -2 ND  at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU  +20 TCU at home (+16 neutral court)

It should be noted that TCU's game against Notre Dame required overtime
to resolve.  If attention were to be restricted to regulation, then the
differential would be zero and the comparison with Kansas reduced to 18.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Brock Harding (guard)
most points        David Punch (forward)
most rebounds      David Punch (forward)
most assists       Brock Harding (guard)
most steals        Brock Harding (guard)
most blocks        David Punch (forward)
most turnovers     Brock Harding (guard)
most fouls         Xavier Edmonds (forward)

Reserve center Vianney Salatchoum is questionable for the game.  He averages
1.4 points, 1.6 rebounds, and 1.1 fouls in 7.1 minutes per game.

                                                          10-4           11-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          TCU
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +8.00   74   66       79       # 19   #  4    # 45   # 75
Pomeroy                 +9.74   75   66       82.1     # 18   #  2    # 53   #302
Greenfield              +7.50   73   66                # 18   #  7    # 45   # 54
Dunkel                 +10.50   78   68       79.6     # 26           # 60
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   73   67                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +9.12   73   64       79.0     # 15   #  4    # 43   # 58
DPPI                    +8.90   75   66       75.9     # 16   #  2    # 38   #196 
ESPN Bet/BPI            +7.50   73.5 66                # 16   #  4    # 54   #149
Whitlock                +9.68                          # 16   #  4    # 58   # 89
Colley Matrix          +10.68                          # 22   #  8    # 82   #274 
Donchess                +9.70   76   66       81.7     # 22   #  2    # 50   #152
Haslametrics           +11.21   75   64                # 18           # 54
INCCStats               +8.00   73   65       78.1     # 18           # 45
common opponents       +20.00                             
NCAA NET                                               # 17           # 47
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 17           # 49
Pomeroy offense                                        # 54           #111
Pomeroy defense                                        #  7           # 20
Pomeroy tempo                                          #205           #237
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +9,79   74.4 65.8     79.3
scatter                  3.24    1.6  1.2      2.1

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 20-11:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #243 Green Bay                   94  51   +23.40   +19.60
AWAY   # 29 North Carolina              74  87    -1.35   -11.65
HOME   #179 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +20.98   +10.02
HOME   #249 Princeton                   76  57   +24.23    -5.23
NEUT   #  9 Duke                        66  78    -3.41    -8.59
NEUT   # 58 Notre Dame                  71  61    +7.04    +2.96
NEUT   # 84 Syracuse                    71  60    +9.18    +1.82
NEUT   # 16 Tennessee                   81  76    -0.27    +5.27
HOME   #  7 Connecticut                 56  61    -0.65    -4.35
NEUT   # 60 Missouri                    80  69    +7.35    +3.65
AWAY   # 32 N.C. State                  77  76    -0.35    +1.35
HOME   #174 Towson                      73  49   +19.31    +4.69
HOME   #130 Davidson                    90  61   +16.93   +12.07
AWAY   # 42 UCF                         75  81    +1.24    -7.24
HOME   # 53 TCU                         75  66    +9.74             0.821
AWAY   # 69 West Virginia               70  66    +4.27             0.657
HOME   #  3 Iowa St.                    74  78    -3.51             0.370
HOME   # 33 Baylor                      84  77    +6.70             0.737
AWAY   # 83 Colorado                    83  77    +5.77             0.707
AWAY   # 72 Kansas St.                  84  79    +5.65             0.703
HOME   # 10 BYU                         79  78    +0.68             0.525
AWAY   # 20 Texas Tech                  75  78    -2.76             0.397
HOME   #128 Utah                        87  69   +17.71             0.953
HOME   #  2 Arizona                     76  80    -3.98             0.353
AWAY   #  3 Iowa St.                    70  81   -10.51             0.160
AWAY   # 66 Oklahoma St.                86  81    +5.22             0.689
HOME   # 65 Cincinnati                  76  65   +11.65             0.865
HOME   # 11 Houston                     70  68    +1.40             0.553
AWAY   #  2 Arizona                     73  84   -10.98             0.150
AWAY   # 85 Arizona St.                 81  75    +6.24             0.722
HOME   # 72 Kansas St.                  88  75   +12.65             0.884

Here is TCU's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #219 New Orleans                 74  78   +16.79   -20.79
HOME   #362 Saint Francis              104  63   +31.18    +9.82
HOME   #239 Lamar                       78  65   +17.21    -4.21
HOME   #  1 Michigan                    63  67   -14.70   +10.70
HOME   #329 Kansas City                 81  45   +24.30   +11.70
NEUT   # 15 Florida                     84  80    -7.68   +11.68
NEUT   # 44 Wisconsin                   74  63    -1.19   +12.19
HOME   # 58 Notre Dame                  85  87    +4.47    -6.47
NEUT   #133 North Texas                 65  55    +7.30    +2.70
HOME   #173 Incarnate Word              69  65   +13.92    -9.92
HOME   #293 Oral Roberts                72  53   +20.92    -1.92
HOME   #340 Florida A&M                 80  56   +25.70    -1.70
HOME   #344 Jackson St.                115  64   +26.12   +24.88
HOME   # 33 Baylor                      69  63    +0.26    +5.74
AWAY   # 18 Kansas                      66  75    -9.74             0.179
HOME   #  2 Arizona                     71  82   -10.53             0.160
AWAY   # 10 BYU                         71  83   -12.80             0.113
AWAY   #128 Utah                        79  74    +4.18             0.654
HOME   # 66 Oklahoma St.                84  79    +5.27             0.691
AWAY   # 33 Baylor                      75  82    -6.74             0.262
HOME   # 11 Houston                     65  70    -4.44             0.337
AWAY   # 83 Colorado                    78  79    -0.79             0.470
HOME   # 72 Kansas St.                  83  77    +5.82             0.709
HOME   #  3 Iowa St.                    69  79    -9.83             0.176
AWAY   # 66 Oklahoma St.                81  83    -1.73             0.435
AWAY   # 42 UCF                         75  80    -5.23             0.311
HOME   # 69 West Virginia               69  64    +5.38             0.694
HOME   # 85 Arizona St.                 80  73    +6.69             0.736
AWAY   # 72 Kansas St.                  80  81    -1.18             0.456
AWAY   # 20 Texas Tech                  71  80    -8.99             0.198
HOME   # 65 Cincinnati                  72  67    +5.10             0.685