Big XII projection, Round 1

Perhaps the best way to summarize the results of Round 1 is that the rich got richer, except for
Kansas, and the poor got poorer, except for Colorado.  To win the Big XII conference, you need to
hold serve at home and win several road games.  The road game in Orlando was winnable, but the
Jayhawks failed to capitalize on the opportunity.  Indeed, Pomeroy's #6 defense gave up 44 points
in the first half while Peterson was showing off his scoring prowess.  Let's call it the Peterson
Effect.  He sat for much of the second half, and the defense improved, plus Council no longer had
to take a spectator's seat.  Could this Jayhawk team be better without Peterson?  Until the
chemistry gets worked out, that could very well be the case.  But how can the chemistry improve
if Peterson sits for so much with leg issues?  Not only did Kansas lose the 0.6 of a projected win
by losing the game, the rating fell by enough to cost the Jayhawks another 0.3 projected win over
the rest of the season, falling to sixth place behind Texas Tech.  Well, Tech is expected to lose
at Houston, and Kansas is expected to hold serve at home against TCU, so maybe the Jayhawks will
find themselves back in fifth place after Round 2, but it will need to be a convincing win.

For Round 2, all the Round 1 road teams get their home openers.  UCF is favored in Stillwater by
just a fraction of a point, hence the "road win" status, but when rounded, we're looking at a tie
game.  Should be interesting.  Half the games are on Tuesday, the other half on Wednesday.

                      Init   Rd 1   
                      Proj   Proj   Conf.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game and Prediction
----  -------------- ------ ------  -----  ------------------------
#  2  Arizona        14.903 14.987   1  0  Wed  KSU  99  78
#  3  Iowa State     14.726 14.953   1  0  Wed @BU   88  81  road win
# 10  BYU            12.702 12.945   1  0  Wed  ASU  93  77
# 11  Houston        12.402 12.680   1  0  Tue  TTU  77  71
# 20  Texas Tech     10.530 10.715   1  0  Tue @UH   71  77
# 18  Kansas         11.159 10.213   0  1  Tue  TCU  76  66
# 43  UCF             8.560  9.660   1  0  Tue @OSU  91  91  road win
# 33  Baylor          9.398  8.483   0  1  Wed  ISU  81  88  home loss
# 53  TCU             7.460  8.339   1  0  Tue @KU   66  76
# 81  Colorado        6.138  7.055   1  0  Wed  UU   91  82
# 71  West Virginia   6.956  6.788   0  1  Tue  UC   69  66
# 65  Cincinnati      6.568  6.262   0  1  Tue @WVU  66  69
# 67  Oklahoma State  6.461  6.036   0  1  Tue  UCF  91  91  home loss
# 73  Kansas State    6.219  6.013   0  1  Wed @UA   78  99
# 84  Arizona State   6.341  5.513   0  1  Wed @BYU  77  93
#128  Utah            3.479  3.358   0  1  Wed @CU   82  91

Half the Round 1 games were road wins.  Only two road wins projected for Round 2, and one of them is
technically a toss-up.

Road wins ( 4 out of   8)                     Home losses                                     RW-HL
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------- -------
1 Arizona      UU                             0 Arizona                                      +1 UA 
1 BYU          KSU                            0 Baylor                                       +1 BYU
1 Colorado     ASU                            0 BYU                                          +1 CU
1 Houston      UC                             0 Colorado                                     +1 UH 
0 Arizona St.                                 0 Houston                                       0 BU
0 Baylor                                      0 Iowa St.                                      0 UCF
0 UCF                                         0 Kansas                                        0 ISU
0 Cincinnati                                  0 Oklahoma St.                                  0 KU
0 Iowa St.                                    0 TCU                                           0 OSU
0 Kansas                                      0 Texas Tech                                    0 TCU
0 Kansas St.                                  0 W. Virginia                                   0 TTU
0 Oklahoma St.                                0 UCF                                           0 WVU
0 TCU                                         1 Arizona St.  CU                              -1 ASU
0 Texas Tech                                  1 Cincinnati   UH                              -1 UC 
0 Utah                                        1 Kansas St.   BYU                             -1 KSU
0 W. Virginia                                 1 Utah         UA                              -1 UU