predictions for UCF game

And conference play begins.  The word is that Peterson will play.  For
how long is a very good question.

Interesting matchup.  UCF has the more potent offense, according to
Pomeroy, but Kansas has by far the more stingy defense.  UCF has
scored in triple digits twice, and never fewer than 77 points this
season, en route to an average of 163 total points per game, over
23 points more than Kansas.  UCF leads in every offensive stat that
Greenfield tabulates.

Both UCF and Kansas played Towson on their home courts, with virtually
identical margins.  UCF has the home court advantage.

UCF has the better record and is therefore ranked higher than Kansas
in the Colley Matrix, which apparently uses an RPI-like ranking method
in which only wins and losses matter.  UCF hasn't played as difficult
a schedule as Kansas, but has a 2-1 record against the Top 100.  The
Knights gave up 105 points to Vanderbilt, their toughest opponent.

Yes, because Colley has UCF ranked higher, and UCF is the home team,
he favors UCF in the game.  Whitlock has Kansas ranked higher, but
not by enough to overcome the home court advantage.  The common
opponent favors UCF, and Dunkel (sigh) is picking the Knights.
Everybody else is picking Kansas, by as much as 9 points.  The average
of 14 predictions favors Kansas by 2.5 points, making it a one-possession
affair.

Both teams are more consistent than the national average.  Peterson is
the wild card for Kansas, who has built its record largely without his
services, so one might hope that Peterson is enough to make the margin
more than one possession.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     UCF      KU      Defensive Stats     UCF      KU
Points/Game         88.3    75.8     Opp Points/Game     74.9    63.3
Avg Score Margin   +13.4   +12.5     Opp Effective FG %  49.6    42.0
Assists/Game        17.3    15.8     Off Rebounds/Gm     12.7     8.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   40.8    40.2     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.1    28.5
Effective FG %      56.5    53.5     Blocks/Game          3.0     6.2
Off Rebound %       41.0    27.4     Steals/Game          5.9     5.4
FTA/FGA            0.323   0.322     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.5    14.2
Turnover %          13.8    13.9   

My Stats Comparison        KU             UCF
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.71           +1.32    
inconsistency          8.20            7.98    
trend                 +0.29 ± 0.63    +0.19 ± 0.70
mental toughness      -0.43 ± 0.19    +0.03 ± 0.24         
average total pts     139.85          163.25 

Common Opponents
================
Three is one common opponent, namely Towson:

KU  +24 Tow at home (+20 neutral court)
UCF +25 Tow at home (+21 neutral court)
KU   -5 UCF on road ( -1 neutral court)

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Themus Fulks (guard)
most points        Jordan Burks (forward)
most rebounds      Jamichael Stillwell (forward)
most assists       Themus Fulks (guard)
most steals        Jamichael Stillwell (forward)
most blocks        John Bol (center)
most turnovers     Themus Fulks (guard)
most fouls         Riley Kugel (guard)

                                                          10-3           11-1 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          UCF
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +4.00   77   73       64       # 17   #  5    # 36   # 86
Pomeroy                 +2.88   81   78       60.7     # 16   #  8    # 46   #204
Greenfield              +4.50   79   74.5              # 15   #  5    # 50   # 69
Dunkel                  -1.50   73   74                # 24           # 39
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.50   79   75                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +5.21   78   73       66.9     # 12   #  7    # 46   # 65
Seven Overtimes                                        #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
DPPI                    +9.30   84   74       74.2     # 13   #  2    # 44   # 70 
ESPN Bet/BPI            +4.50   79   74.5              # 15   #  6    # 56   #111
Whitlock                -0.71                          # 14   #  3    # 29   # 37
Colley Matrix           -4.71                          # 22   #  8    # 15   # 93 
Donchess                +4.80   80   76       65.0     # 20   #  2    # 27   #117
Haslametrics            +3.54   78   74                # 15           # 41
INCCStats               +4.00   78   74       64.7     # 16           # 52
common opponents        -5.00                             
NCAA NET                                               # 16           # 36
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 16           # 34
Pomeroy offense                                        # 52           # 35
Pomeroy defense                                        #  6           # 90
Pomeroy tempo                                          #208           #110
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +2,52   78.7 74.6     65.9
scatter                  4.03    2.7  1.4      4.5

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 21-10:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #245 Green Bay                   94  51   +24.69   +18.31
AWAY   # 23 North Carolina              74  87    -1.31   -11.69
HOME   #216 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +23.61    +7.39
HOME   #253 Princeton                   76  57   +25.54    -6.54
NEUT   #  8 Duke                        66  78    -3.29    -8.71
NEUT   # 58 Notre Dame                  71  61    +7.84    +2.16
NEUT   # 81 Syracuse                    71  60   +10.03    +0.97
NEUT   # 14 Tennessee                   81  76    -0.21    +5.21
HOME   #  5 Connecticut                 56  61    -0.46    -4.54
NEUT   # 65 Missouri                    80  69    +8.83    +2.17
AWAY   # 24 N.C. State                  77  76    -0.85    +1.85
HOME   #147 Towson                      73  49   +18.93    +5.07
HOME   #135 Davidson                    90  61   +18.40   +10.60
AWAY   # 46 UCF                         81  78    +2.88             0.607
HOME   # 55 TCU                         78  67   +11.07             0.852
AWAY   # 73 West Virginia               72  66    +5.29             0.691
HOME   #  3 Iowa St.                    75  78    -2.87             0.393
HOME   # 29 Baylor                      85  78    +6.70             0.737
AWAY   # 86 Colorado                    83  76    +7.16             0.751
AWAY   # 76 Kansas St.                  86  80    +6.59             0.733
HOME   # 10 BYU                         81  79    +1.57             0.559
AWAY   # 21 Texas Tech                  76  78    -1.57             0.441
HOME   #127 Utah                        87  69   +18.38             0.959
HOME   #  2 Arizona                     77  80    -3.12             0.384
AWAY   #  3 Iowa St.                    72  81    -9.87             0.175
AWAY   # 60 Oklahoma St.                86  81    +5.72             0.706
HOME   # 64 Cincinnati                  78  65   +12.59             0.883
HOME   # 11 Houston                     71  69    +2.00             0.575
AWAY   #  2 Arizona                     73  83   -10.12             0.169
AWAY   # 79 Arizona St.                 81  75    +6.54             0.732
HOME   # 76 Kansas St.                  90  76   +13.59             0.901

Here is UCF's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #101 Hofstra                     82  78    +9.84    -5.84
HOME   #  7 Vanderbilt                  93 105    -7.02    -4.98
HOME   #344 Florida A&M                 97  60   +28.31    +8.69
AWAY   # 51 Texas A&M                   86  74    -3.27   +15.27
HOME   #143 Oakland                     87  83   +14.20   -10.20
NEUT   # 94 Pittsburgh                  77  67    +4.65    +5.35
HOME   #163 Quinnipiac                 102  91   +15.54    -4.54
HOME   #341 VMI                         82  57   +27.29    -2.29
HOME   #147 Towson                      86  61   +13.43   +11.57
HOME   #162 Mercer                      81  63   +15.46    +2.54
HOME   #181 Florida Gulf Coast         102  80   +16.64    +5.36
HOME   #102 Florida Atlantic            85  80   +10.14    -5.14
HOME   # 16 Kansas                      78  81    -2.88             0.393
AWAY   # 60 Oklahoma St.                90  91    -1.02             0.462
HOME   # 64 Cincinnati                  81  75    +6.22             0.722
AWAY   # 76 Kansas St.                  90  90    +0.00             0.500
HOME   #  2 Arizona                     80  91   -10.02             0.172
AWAY   #  3 Iowa St.                    75  92   -16.59             0.058
AWAY   # 86 Colorado                    87  86    +0.92             0.535
HOME   # 79 Arizona St.                 89  82    +7.28             0.754
HOME   # 21 Texas Tech                  83  84    -0.88             0.467
AWAY   # 11 Houston                     71  82   -11.07             0.148
AWAY   # 64 Cincinnati                  78  79    -0.78             0.471
HOME   # 73 West Virginia               79  72    +6.56             0.732
HOME   # 55 TCU                         82  77    +4.91             0.679
AWAY   #127 Utah                        88  83    +5.30             0.692
AWAY   # 10 BYU                         81  93   -12.10             0.126
HOME   # 29 Baylor                      89  89    +0.21             0.508
HOME   # 60 Oklahoma St.                94  88    +5.98             0.714
AWAY   # 73 West Virginia               75  76    -0.44             0.483