initial Big XII projection

The next game each Big XII team will play will be a conference
game, plus the teams should all be well-connected by now, so it is
a good time to do the initial Big XII conference projection.  This
analysis is based on the Pomeroy ratings through games of December
29.  Except for Baylor, who has a non-conference game with Louisville
in mid-February, Big XII teams have completed their non-conference
slate of games.  Some preseason polls had Kansas down at sixth in
the conference, so being fifth in this analysis suggests that the
team is performing better than expected, or other teams are doing
worse than expected.  Of course, as Jayhawk fans know, the rating
for Kansas has been built largely without Peterson playing, so if
his family ever thinks he's close enough to 100 percent to actually
play some games, then it is reasonable to expect more than 11
conference wins.  Take the over!

Last season, when there were 20 conference games, BYU outperformed
expectations by 4 wins, while Cincinnati underperformed by 5 wins,
so yes, a Big XII championship is not out of the question for Kansas,
especially given that we play both of the front-runners twice.

No fewer than six teams are projected to have 6 plus a fraction
conference wins, so the actual standings will likely be a jumbled
mess for the lower half of the conference.  There's a bit more
separation in the upper division.

Is the Big XII the best conference?  I guess that depends on the
metric used to define "best".  The non-conference winning percentage
can be skewed by a conference that plays mostly cupcakes.  You could
look at the number of teams in the Top Ten.  The Big XII and the
Big Ten both have three, with one each for the WCC (Gonzaga, no
surprise there), ACC (Duke), Big East (UConn), and SEC (Vandy - what,
did I just write Vandy???).  Expand that to the Top 25, and the
Big XII and Big Ten both lead with six entries, the SEC grows to five
entires, the ACC grows to four entries, the Big East grows to three
entries, and the WCC stays at just one.  Or you could look at which
conference has the strongest bottom team.  The Big Ten has Rutgers
ranked #161 by Pomeroy, the ACC has Boston College at #157, the
Big 12 has Utah at #123, and the SEC has South Carolina at #90.

                      Init   
                      Proj   Conf.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Recrd  Next Game and Prediction
----  -------------- ------  -----  ------------------------
#  2  Arizona        14.903   0  0  Sat @UU   94  75  road win
#  4  Iowa State     14.726   0  0  Fri  WVU  82  65
# 10  BYU            12.702   0  0  Sat @KSU  95  87  road win
# 11  Houston        12.402   0  0  Sat @UC   73  66  road win
# 17  Kansas         11.159   0  0  Sat @UCF  81  78  road win
# 21  Texas Tech     10.530   0  0  Sat  OSU  94  83
# 30  Baylor          9.398   0  0  Sat @TCU  82  81  road win
# 46  UCF             8.560   0  0  Sat  KU   78  81  home loss
# 54  TCU             7.460   0  0  Sat  BU   81  82  home loss
# 66  West Virginia   6.956   0  0  Fri @ISU  65  82
# 62  Cincinnati      6.568   0  0  Sat  UH   66  73  home loss
# 60  Oklahoma State  6.461   0  0  Sat @TTU  83  94
# 76  Arizona State   6.341   0  0  Sat  CU   88  84
# 73  Kansas State    6.219   0  0  Sat  BYU  87  95  home loss
# 86  Colorado        6.138   0  0  Sat @ASU  84  88
#123  Utah            3.479   0  0  Sat  UA   75  94  home loss