predictions for Davidson game

This is not your Steph Curry's Davidson team.  Yes, they have a winning
record, just one win shy of the Jayhawks' record.  But one of those wins
came against a Division III school, and that is in the NCCAA, not the NCAA.
The Wildcats haven't beaten any Top 100 team this season.

Since the Steph Curry game, Kansas and Davidson have squared off twice,
both in Kansas City, and split the two affairs, with the Jayhawks coming
out on top in the more recent of those two games, nine years ago.

Enjoy the "breather" while it lasts, because with the exception of the
Utah game, which features an opponent currently ranked just a few spots
below Davidson, the rest of the schedule looks daunting, with no fewer
than five games against the Top Ten.  But hey, it's the Big XII.

Kansas ranks #255 in adjusted tempo, according to Pomeroy.  Davidson is
worse, way down at #326.  Do not expect a high-scoring game.  Of course,
one thing that could make it somewhat higher scoring is if Peterson plays.
Through Sunday night, I haven't seen any news about his status.  Greenfield
says he won't play, but I doubt that reflects any knowledge that hasn't
been made public.  I suspect the injury report will remain the same until
he actually plays again.

The predictions are remarkably similar, with Dunkel once again being the
outlier, expecting just a single-digit margin of victory.  Most of the
others echo Vegas' 17.5 point margin, though Colley's RPI-like ranking
formula implies only a slightly larger margin than Dunkel.  A couple others
are in the 13 point range, but the average of 13 prognostications is 15.8
points.

Merry Christmas, and Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats    David     KU      Defensive Stats    David     KU
Points/Game         73.0    74.7     Opp Points/Game     67.6    63.5
Avg Score Margin    +5.4   +11.2     Opp Effective FG %  49.9    41.8
Assists/Game        13.7    14.8     Off Rebounds/Gm      7.9     8.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   33.0    40.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.1    28.1
Effective FG %      55.7    52.3     Blocks/Game          3.2     6.3
Off Rebound %       27.0    27.2     Steals/Game          6.2     4.8
FTA/FGA            0.392   0.344     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.1    14.9
Turnover %          14.6    13.5   

My Stats Comparison        KU            David
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.41           +0.52    
inconsistency          8.08           11.52    
trend                 +0.04 ± 0.71    -0.84 ± 1.31
mental toughness      -0.38 ± 0.19    -0.56 ± 0.37         
average total pts     138.92          140.60 

Common Opponents
================
None.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Josh Scovens (guard)
most points        Josh Scovens (guard)
most rebounds      Ian Platteeuw (forward)
most assists       Ian Platteeuw (forward)
most steals        two tied
most blocks        Sean Logan (forward)
most turnovers     Parker Friedrichsen (guard)
most fouls         Josh Scovens (guard)

Forward Sean Logan is out indefinitely.  Plays a decent number of minutes,
but doesn't score or rebound much; however, he is their leading shot blocker.

                                                           9-3            8-3 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Davidson
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                 +17.00   78   61       95       # 15   #  6    #115   #181
Pomeroy                +16.61   79   62       94.2     # 16   #  6    #119   #264
Greenfield             +17.50   77   59.5              # 19   #  7    #132   #154
Dunkel                  +9.50   75   66       96.4     # 24           #120
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +17.50   77   59                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +17.36   77   60       93.6     # 15   #  7    #121   #148
Seven Overtimes                                        #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
DPPI                   +13.90   76   62.5     84.6     #  9   #  2    #103   #154 
ESPN Bet/BPI           +17.50   77   59.5              # 16   #  6    #123   #250
Whitlock               +13.75                          # 16   #  4    #107   #173
Colley Matrix          +11.49                          # 21   # 12    # 96   #216 
Donchess               +19.40   80   60.5     96.3     # 21   #  4    #113   #211
Haslametrics           +16.44   76   60                # 17           #109
INCCStats              +18.00   77   59       95.6     # 17           #129
common opponents                                     
NCAA NET                                               # 16           #105
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 16           #102
Pomeroy offense                                        # 54           #127
Pomeroy defense                                        #  7           #130
Pomeroy tempo                                          #255           #326
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +15.84   77.2 60.8     93.7
scatter                  2.85    1.4  2.1      4.1

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 21-10:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #261 Green Bay                   94  51   +24.50   +18.50
AWAY   # 22 North Carolina              74  87    -1.48   -11.52
HOME   #223 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +23.83    +7.17
HOME   #267 Princeton                   76  57   +25.44    -6.44
NEUT   #  6 Duke                        66  78    -4.73    -7.27
NEUT   # 64 Notre Dame                  71  61    +8.04    +1.96
NEUT   # 83 Syracuse                    71  60    +9.60    +1.40
NEUT   # 15 Tennessee                   81  76    -0.27    +5.27
HOME   #  7 Connecticut                 56  61    +0.02    -5.02
NEUT   # 50 Missouri                    80  69    +6.34    +4.66
AWAY   # 25 N.C. State                  77  76    -1.10    +2.10
HOME   #147 Towson                      73  49   +17.95    +6.05
HOME   #119 Davidson                    79  62   +16.61             0.942
AWAY   # 44 UCF                         78  76    +1.97             0.574
HOME   # 57 TCU                         75  64   +11.10             0.853
AWAY   # 69 West Virginia               70  65    +4.69             0.671
HOME   #  3 Iowa St.                    73  76    -2.57             0.404
HOME   # 30 Baylor                      83  77    +6.30             0.724
AWAY   # 70 Colorado                    80  75    +5.29             0.691
AWAY   # 59 Kansas St.                  83  78    +4.76             0.674
HOME   # 10 BYU                         77  76    +0.98             0.537
AWAY   # 24 Texas Tech                  74  76    -1.35             0.449
HOME   #123 Utah                        85  68   +17.54             0.951
HOME   #  2 Arizona                     74  77    -3.08             0.386
AWAY   #  3 Iowa St.                    70  79    -9.57             0.183
AWAY   # 62 Oklahoma St.                84  78    +5.28             0.691
HOME   # 73 Cincinnati                  76  63   +12.74             0.886
HOME   #  9 Houston                     69  68    +1.14             0.543
AWAY   #  2 Arizona                     71  81   -10.08             0.170
AWAY   # 78 Arizona St.                 79  73    +6.02             0.715
HOME   # 59 Kansas St.                  86  75   +11.76             0.867

Here is Davidson's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
Div3        DeSales                     97  63
HOME   #152 Washington St.              85  69    +5.96   +10.04
AWAY   #188 Charlotte                   62  55    +0.75    +6.25
HOME   #107 Bowling Green               91  87    +2.03    +1.97
NEUT   #144 Boston College              59  49    +1.62    +8.39
NEUT   # 29 Utah St.                    60  94   -10.94   -23.06
HOME   #308 North Carolina A&T          90  74   +15.18    +0.82
HOME   #356 The Citadel                 79  63   +19.94    -3.94
HOME   # 33 Saint Mary's                61  70    -6.35    -2.65
HOME   #318 Mercyhurst                  80  47   +15.15   +17.85
HOME   #149 Temple                      63  68    +5.45   -10.45
AWAY   # 16 Kansas                      62  79   -16.61             0.058