predictions for Towson game

Not a cupcake, but not a top tier opponent either.  Towson is sort of
a high middle-tier opponent.  Their best win came against Rhode Island,
Pomeroy's #102 team.  They have played three higher-ranked opponents,
but those were all losses.  So Towson has a decent strength of schedule,
though one of their wins came against a Division III opponent.

Dunkel appears to enjoy being the odd man out.  No, he isn't expecting
Kansas to lose, but his margin of victory is just 9 points, the smallest
of the thirteen prognosticators (I do wonder what is going on with
Seven Overtimes, whose web site appears to be redirecting to kenpom.com).
The average is 17 points, with a 96 percent chance of winning the game.

The big question, as has been becoming routine, is whether Peterson will
play or not.  The claim is that he left the NC State game early because
of cramps, not the earlier hamstring injury.  It seems there's always
something going on with him: cramps, a bug, hamstring, another bug,
more cramps.  It would be unreasonable to expect Council to score 36
points again, though it will be interesting to see if the NC State game
was a big confidence booster for him, leading to greater scoring.

The stat that kind of jumps out at me is how both teams are above average
in consistency.  Both teams have had just two games in double-digits above
or below expectation.  That would seem to make it less likely for Kansas to
play more than 17 points below expectation, or Towson to play more than
17 points above expectation.

The Towson Tigers are not a very tall team.  Flory should have a big
game.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Tow      KU      Defensive Stats     Tow      KU
Points/Game         66.9    74.8     Opp Points/Game     68.9    64.8
Avg Score Margin    -2.0   +10.0     Opp Effective FG %  52.2    43.1
Assists/Game         9.1    14.8     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.1     8.1
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.6    39.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.4    27.9
Effective FG %      48.3    52.2     Blocks/Game          3.0     6.1
Off Rebound %       36.0    26.4     Steals/Game          6.4     4.6
FTA/FGA            0.290   0.355     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.2    15.1
Turnover %          14.5    13.6   

My Stats Comparison        KU            Towson
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.30           -0.19    
inconsistency          8.26            7.71    
trend                 -0.23 ± 0.83    -0.72 ± 1.03
mental toughness      -0.39 ± 0.21    -0.22 ± 0.29         
average total pts     140.45          135.78 

Common Opponents
================
None.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Tyler Tejada (guard)
most points        Tyler Tejada (guard)
most rebounds      Caleb Embeya (forward)
most assists       Dylan Williamson (guard)
most steals        Jack Doumbia (forward)
most blocks        Mor Seck (center)
most turnovers     two tied
most fouls         Caleb Embeya (forward)

                                                           8-3            6-4 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Towson
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                 +21.00   78   57       98       # 16   #  3    #135   #101
Pomeroy                +17.27   75   58       94.9     # 17   #  4    #142   # 74
Greenfield             +17.50   76   58.5              # 19   #  6    #141   # 99
Dunkel                  +9.00   77   68      97.5      # 25           #131
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +18.50   76   58                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +18.59   75   57       95.2     # 15   #  7    #148   #101
Seven Overtimes                                        #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
DPPI                   +18.60   77   59       95.8     # 10   #  1    #145   # 91 
ESPN Bet/BPI           +17.50   76.5 59                # 20   #  6    #137   # 50
Whitlock               +16.40                          # 16   #  4    #144   # 92
Colley Matrix          +12.69                          # 26   # 12    #126   # 84 
Donchess               +19.60   79   60       96.5     # 21   #  2    #128   # 87
Haslametrics           +19.52   74   55                # 20           #154
INCCStats              +18.00   75   57       95.8     # 17           #139
common opponents                                     
NCAA NET                                               # 16           #136
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 16           #128
Pomeroy offense                                        # 59           #164
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           #133
Pomeroy tempo                                          #255           #361
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +17.24   76.2 58.8     96.2
scatter                  3.16    1.5  3.3      1.2

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 21-10:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #272 Green Bay                   94  51   +24.79   +18.21
AWAY   # 27 North Carolina              74  87    -1.54   -11.46
HOME   #219 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +23.06    +7.94
HOME   #271 Princeton                   76  57   +25.18    -6.18
NEUT   #  4 Duke                        66  78    -5.73    -6.27
NEUT   # 58 Notre Dame                  71  61    +6.50    +3.50
NEUT   # 76 Syracuse                    71  60    +8.38    +2.62
NEUT   # 18 Tennessee                   81  76    +0.60    +4.40
HOME   #  7 Connecticut                 56  61    +0.39    -5.39
NEUT   # 52 Missouri                    80  69    +5.81    +5.19
AWAY   # 28 N.C. State                  77  76    -0.79    +1.79
HOME   #142 Towson                      75  58   +17.27             0.949
HOME   #120 Davidson                    78  62   +15.96             0.934
AWAY   # 54 UCF                         78  75    +2.61             0.598
HOME   # 62 TCU                         76  65   +10.82             0.847
AWAY   # 70 West Virginia               69  65    +3.94             0.645
HOME   #  3 Iowa St.                    72  75    -2.64             0.401
HOME   # 34 Baylor                      82  75    +6.91             0.743
AWAY   # 60 Colorado                    79  75    +3.77             0.639
AWAY   # 71 Kansas St.                  82  77    +4.98             0.681
HOME   #  9 BYU                         76  75    +0.69             0.526
AWAY   # 23 Texas Tech                  72  74    -1.84             0.431
HOME   #130 Utah                        84  67   +17.48             0.951
HOME   #  5 Arizona                     75  78    -2.35             0.412
AWAY   #  3 Iowa St.                    69  79    -9.64             0.181
AWAY   # 55 Oklahoma St.                82  78    +3.32             0.623
HOME   # 82 Cincinnati                  76  63   +12.96             0.890
HOME   #  8 Houston                     67  66    +0.93             0.535
AWAY   #  5 Arizona                     72  81    -9.35             0.188
AWAY   # 63 Arizona St.                 77  73    +4.03             0.649
HOME   # 71 Kansas St.                  85  73   +11.98             0.871

Here is Towson's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #338 Loyola MD                   67  56   +11.77    -0.77
AWAY   #  8 Houston                     48  65   -18.98    +1.98
Div3        Wilson College             101  62
HOME   #227 Norfolk St.                 51  41    +8.17    +1.83
AWAY   #193 James Madison               75  81    -0.48    -5.52
NEUT   #102 Rhode Island                62  55    -3.08   +10.08
NEUT   #112 Liberty                     72  69    -2.27    +5.27
NEUT   # 87 UC San Diego                73  87    -4.82    -9.18
HOME   #169 Cornell                     93  80    +5.44    +7.56
AWAY   # 54 UCF                         61  86   -12.08   -12.92
AWAY   # 17 Kansas                      58  75   -17.27             0.051