predictions for North Carolina State game

Yes, Kansas is the higher ranked team, according to all of the various
prognosticators that I follow, but the Jayhawks are on the road, and
is the ranking advantage enough to overcome the home court advantage
that the Wolfpack enjoy?  Not according to most of the prognosticators.
Then again, the ranking for Kansas has largely been determined without
Peterson, and surely he is worth a few more points, right?  Just how
many extra points does Kansas need to come out on top?  Not many.

With the not-too-surprising exception of Dunkel, every prediction is
within 3 points.  In other words, a one-possession game.  Dunkel is
picking the Jayhawks by 7.  Maybe he's expecting Peterson to play.
The average favors the Wolfpack by a tenth of a point.

North Carolina State has played five opponents ranked in the triple
digits and played double digits above expectation in four of them,
soaring above the century mark in two of them.  Against the five
strongest opponents, the Wolfpack played below expectation in four
of them, leading to a statistically significant negative mental
toughess rating.  That bodes well for Kansas.  Then again, the
Jayhawks also have a negative mental toughness rating, due to
playing below expectation against Duke, Connecticut, and North
Carolina.  But remember, when playing a weaker team than yourself,
a negative mental toughness rating helps in that a negative value
means you play better against the weaker opponents and worse against
the stronger opponents.  The win against Missouri has given Kansas a
positive trend, while NC State has a negative trend.  Neither trend is
statistically significant, so don't read too much into that.  Kansas
is the more consistent of the two teams by a large margin.

It will be interesting to see how Pomeroy's #17 offense does against
Pomeroy's #8 defense.  NC State's lowest scoring game came against
the toughest opponent, based on Pomeroy's rankings (only 73 points
against #30 Auburn).  But Auburn has only the #71 defense.  Their
second-lowest scoring game came against #57 Seton Hall, which has
Pomeroy's #13 defense.

Something not reflected in the various statistics presented here is
the fact that North Carolina State is one of the worst teams in all
of Division I in terms of giving up fast-break points.  They also
foul a lot, nearly 20 per game; the Jayhawks may be living at the
charity stripe.

Another story line worth noting is that Kansas really tried to land
Darrion Williams through the transfer portal, but couldn't seal the
deal.  Now the Jayhawks have to play against him.  It will be
interesting to see if the Jayhawks' Plan B, Tre White, will outplay
Williams.  Or maybe not.  But it would be pure schadenfreude if
White did.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     NCST     KU      Defensive Stats     NCST     KU
Points/Game         88.8    74.6     Opp Points/Game     72.7    63.7
Avg Score Margin   +16.1   +10.9     Opp Effective FG %  51.2    43.0
Assists/Game        16.9    14.6     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.7     8.1
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.2    39.1     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.7    27.4
Effective FG %      58.9    52.4     Blocks/Game          3.0     6.4
Off Rebound %       28.0    27.0     Steals/Game          8.3     4.7
FTA/FGA            0.376   0.382     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.9    15.4
Turnover %          12.5    14.1   

My Stats Comparison        KU             NCST
===================   =============   ============
performance           +2.35           +4.49    
inconsistency          9.45           14.31    
trend                 +0.14 ± 1.10    -1.17 ± 1.62
mental toughness      -0.40 ± 0.25    -0.75 ± 0.38         
average total pts     138.30          161.50 

Common Opponents
================
None.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Darrion Williams (forward)
most points        Darrion Williams (forward)
most rebounds      Ven-Allen Lubin (forward)
most assists       Quadir Copeland (guard)
most steals        Quadir Copeland (guard), Matt Able (guard)
most blocks        four-way tie
most turnovers     Quadir Copeland (guard)
most fouls         Quadir Copeland (guard)

                                                           7-3            7-3 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        NC State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +3.00   75   72       59       # 17   #  5    # 49   # 34
Pomeroy                 -1.19   77   78       45.5     # 17   #  6    # 28   # 63
Greenfield              -3.00   74   77                # 19   #  7    # 26   # 27
Dunkel                  +7.00   75   68       47.2     # 27           # 63
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -2.50   75   77                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +0.62   76   76       52.1     # 17   #  8    # 25   # 26
Seven Overtimes                                        #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
DPPI                    -2.30   74   76.5     43.5     # 15   #  4    # 25   # 45 
ESPN Bet/BPI            -2.50   74.5 77                # 20   #  7    # 25   # 19
Whitlock                +0.12                          # 17   #  5    # 39   # 37
Colley Matrix           -0.83                          # 48   # 16    # 81   # 86 
Donchess                +0.90   77   76       52.4     # 20   #  2    # 37   # 47
Haslametrics            -0.12   77   77                # 19           # 32
INCCStats               -1.00   76   77       47.9     # 17           # 28
common opponents                                     
NCAA NET                                               # 19           # 30
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 16           # 46
Pomeroy offense                                        # 52           # 17
Pomeroy defense                                        #  8           # 58
Pomeroy tempo                                          #249           # 72
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -0.14   75.5 75.6     49.7
scatter                  2.72    1.2  3.0      5.3

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 20-11:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #277 Green Bay                   94  51   +24.88   +18.12
AWAY   # 24 North Carolina              74  87    -1.92   -11.08
HOME   #219 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +22.82    +8.18
HOME   #267 Princeton                   76  57   +24.78    -5.78
NEUT   #  4 Duke                        66  78    -5.87    -6.13
NEUT   # 60 Notre Dame                  71  61    +6.65    +3.35
NEUT   # 67 Syracuse                    71  60    +7.50    +3.50
NEUT   # 18 Tennessee                   81  76    +0.33    +4.67
HOME   #  8 Connecticut                 56  61    +0.32    -5.32
NEUT   # 55 Missouri                    80  60    +5.96   +14.04
AWAY   # 28 N.C. State                  77  78    -1.19             0.455
HOME   #141 Towson                      75  58   +17.21             0.948
HOME   #134 Davidson                    79  62   +17.06             0.947
AWAY   # 53 UCF                         78  76    +2.22             0.583
HOME   # 58 TCU                         76  66    +9.83             0.824
AWAY   # 73 West Virginia               69  65    +3.90             0.644
HOME   #  2 Iowa St.                    72  75    -3.16             0.382
HOME   # 33 Baylor                      82  76    +6.57             0.733
AWAY   # 62 Colorado                    79  75    +3.69             0.636
AWAY   # 79 Kansas St.                  82  76    +5.84             0.710
HOME   # 11 BYU                         75  74    +0.85             0.532
AWAY   # 19 Texas Tech                  70  73    -2.63             0.402
HOME   #122 Utah                        84  67   +16.77             0.944
HOME   #  6 Arizona                     76  77    -1.10             0.459
AWAY   #  2 Iowa St.                    68  78   -10.16             0.168
AWAY   # 50 Oklahoma St.                82  79    +2.54             0.595
HOME   # 76 Cincinnati                  75  63   +12.13             0.874
HOME   # 10 Houston                     67  66    +0.92             0.535
AWAY   #  6 Arizona                     73  81    -8.10             0.222
AWAY   # 70 Arizona St.                 76  72    +4.09             0.651
HOME   # 79 Kansas St.                  86  73   +12.84             0.888

Here is North Carolina State's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #350 North Carolina Central     114  66   +31.13   +16.87
HOME   #105 UAB                         94  70   +13.45   +10.55
HOME   #272 UNC Greensboro             110  64   +24.14   +21.86
HOME   # 43 VCU                         85  79    +6.22    -0.22
NEUT   # 57 Seton Hall                  74  85    +4.00   -15.00
NEUT   # 44 Boise St.                   81  70    +2.86    +8.14
NEUT   # 46 Texas                       97 102    +3.20    -8.20
AWAY   # 30 Auburn                      73  83    -3.36    -6.64
HOME   #206 UNC Asheville               75  63   +20.74    -8.74
HOME   #112 Liberty                     85  45   +13.70   +26.30
HOME   # 17 Kansas                      78  77    +1.19             0.545