predictions for Missouri game

By now, the average Division I men's college basketball team has played an
average of 10 games.  With random scheduling, that is enough to connect all
365 teams and perhaps enough to have them multiply connected, so we've reached
the point in the season when the computer ratings are beginning to mean something.

Missouri hasn't really been tested so far.  Pomeroy has the Tigers with the
#362 schedule out of 365 teams.  Ouch.  Yes, they did play two power conference
opponents.  A 23 point win over the Big Ten's Minnesota might seem impressive,
but Pomeoroy has the Gophers ranked #112, barely a top tier team.  The other
opponent is the ACC's Notre Dame, a 5 point road loss, and a common opponent
with Kansas.

So basically what we have to go on is one common opponent and some computer
ratings that are starting to take on some statistical significance.  Of course,
the common opponent was played while Peterson was using the N middle initial,
as in Did Not Play.

Pomeroy has Missouri with the #24 offense.  Indeed, they've topped the century
mark twice, though against cupcakes, so their 159 total points per game average
is probably misleading.

If Peterson plays, as he is expected to, barring any setback, he may provide
some scoring punch that Kansas was lacking against Connecticut in the second
half.  Indeed, Kansas had 29 points in the first 15 minutes of that game,
nearly scoring 2 points per minute, but then managed only 37 points in the
last 35 minutes, barely surpassing 1 point per minute.  Poor shot selection
on the Jayhawks' part may be partially to blame, but the Huskies also
ratcheted up the defense, particularly on rebounding.  Note that Missouri
has size.  The usual remedy for size is speed; Council could have a big game.

The average of 14 prognostications is 5 points in favor of Kansas.  How many
points is Peterson worth?

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      MU      KU      Defensive Stats      MU      KU
Points/Game         90.4    74.0     Opp Points/Game     69.0    64.1
Avg Score Margin   +21.4    +9.9     Opp Effective FG %  47.6    43.3
Assists/Game        16.2    14.3     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.8     7.9
Total Rebounds/Gm   40.3    38.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     26.1    27.3
Effective FG %      61.4    52.3     Blocks/Game          3.0     6.3
Off Rebound %       38.5    26.2     Steals/Game          8.9     4.7
FTA/FGA            0.432   0.373     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.9    15.0
Turnover %          16.1    14.4   

My Stats Comparison        KU              MU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +2.10           +0.89    
inconsistency          9.18            9.34    
trend                 -0.73 ± 1.24    +0.02 ± 1.29
mental toughness      -0.44 ± 0.23    -0.08 ± 0.36         
average total pts     138.11          159.44 

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Notre Dame:

KU  +10 ND  neutral (+10 neutral court)
MU   -5 ND  on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU  +11 MU  neutral (+11 neutral court)

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Mark Mitchell (guard)
most points        Mark Mitchell (guard)
most rebounds      Shawn Phillips Jr. (center)
most assists       Mark Mitchell (guard)
most steals        Anthony Robinson II (guard)
most blocks        Shawn Phillips Jr. (center)
most turnovers     Mark Mitchell (guard)
most fouls         Anthony Robinson II (guard)

Guord Jayden Stone is out with a hand injury; he is third on the team in minutes
played and points scored per game.  Reserve forward Trent Pierce is out with a
lower body injury; looks like he hasn't played so far this season.

                                                           6-3            8-1 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Missouri
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +6.00   78   72       71       # 19   #  5    # 44   #264
Pomeroy                 +2.47   77   75       59.2     # 18   #  7    # 38   #362
Greenfield              +6.50   78   71.5              # 20   #  7    # 34   #120
Dunkel                  +1.00   73.5 72.5              # 31           # 30
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   78   72                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +5.60   77   72       68.1     # 19   #  6    # 52   #214
Seven Overtimes                                        #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
DPPI                    +4.60   77   72       65.7     # 14   #  4    # 77   #360 
ESPN Bet/BPI            +6.50   78   71.5              # 22   # 12    # 24   #339
Whitlock                +3.33                          # 26   #  5    # 52   #289
Colley Matrix           +2.15                          # 52   # 21    # 74   #362 
Donchess                +3.50   77   74       60.9     # 21   #  5    # 31   #349
Haslametrics            +7.35   79   72                # 18           # 54
INCCStats               +6.00   77   71       72.7     # 18           # 37
common opponents       +11.00                        
NCAA NET                                               # 20           # 64
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 16           # 37
Pomeroy offense                                        # 59           # 24
Pomeroy defense                                        # 11           # 72
Pomeroy tempo                                          #236           #148
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +5.18   77.2 72.3     66.3
scatter                  2.57    1.4  1.2      5.4

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 19-12:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #275 Green Bay                   94  51   +23.62   +19.38
AWAY   # 24 North Carolina              74  87    -2.40   -10.60
HOME   #223 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +21.90    +9.10
HOME   #261 Princeton                   76  57   +23.73    -4.73
NEUT   #  4 Duke                        66  78    -6.74    -5.26
NEUT   # 63 Notre Dame                  71  61    +5.56    +4.44
NEUT   # 64 Syracuse                    71  60    +6.01    +4.99
NEUT   # 17 Tennessee                   81  76    -0.67    +5.67
HOME   #  7 Connecticut                 56  61    -0.93    -4.07
NEUT   # 38 Missouri                    77  75    +2.47             0.592
AWAY   # 39 N.C. State                  78  79    -0.77             0.471
HOME   #128 Towson                      75  59   +15.28             0.926
HOME   #130 Davidson                    79  63   +15.85             0.933
AWAY   # 60 UCF                         78  76    +2.17             0.581
HOME   # 56 TCU                         76  67    +8.63             0.793
AWAY   # 75 West Virginia               68  65    +3.25             0.621
HOME   #  2 Iowa St.                    72  77    -5.08             0.316
HOME   # 33 Baylor                      81  75    +5.64             0.703
AWAY   # 66 Colorado                    78  76    +2.60             0.597
AWAY   # 82 Kansas St.                  82  77    +5.16             0.687
HOME   #  9 BYU                         76  76    -0.49             0.482
AWAY   # 30 Texas Tech                  72  73    -1.83             0.431
HOME   #123 Utah                        84  68   +15.80             0.932
HOME   #  5 Arizona                     76  78    -2.26             0.415
AWAY   #  2 Iowa St.                    68  80   -12.08             0.127
AWAY   # 46 Oklahoma St.                81  80    +1.22             0.546
HOME   # 74 Cincinnati                  75  64   +10.96             0.850
HOME   # 10 Houston                     67  66    +0.16             0.506
AWAY   #  5 Arizona                     72  82    -9.26             0.191
AWAY   # 73 Arizona St.                 77  74    +3.60             0.633
HOME   # 82 Kansas St.                  85  73   +12.16             0.875

Here is MIssouri's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #310 Howard                      88  67   +18.46    +2.54
HOME   #230 Southeast Missouri          89  84   +21.21   -16.21
HOME   #340 VMI                        106  68   +27.86   +10.14
HOME   #112 Minnesota                   83  60   +11.56   +11.44
HOME   #299 Prairie View A&M            91  73   +25.43    -7.43
HOME   #264 South Dakota               102  68   +22.94   +11.06
HOME   #352 South Carolina St.          98  66   +30.86    +1.14
HOME   #323 Cleveland St.               86  59   +26.87    +0.13
AWAY   # 63 Notre Dame                  71  76    -0.20    -4.80
NEUT   # 18 Kansas                      75  77    -2.47             0.408