UConn Preview

If Darryn is going to be back for the UConn game, which Self says is a possibility, I sure hope he picks up where he left off. If he has anything close to the numbers he had in the 1st 2 games, he will quickly rise to the top of the freshman class. As it is, below is the freshman class sorted by scoring. At least the ranked freshmen. I'm not sure if there is an unranked freshman outperforming any of these guys. You can see their composite ranking on the left. It looks like there are a few that have outperformed expectations. Kayden Mingo at Penn State is putting up good numbers but the real standout is Nigel James at Marquette. He was ranked 96th out of highs school but is putting up top 20 numbers. It looks like the pundits got it right at the top. The top 4 scoring freshmen are 4 of the top 5 guys on the RSCI list 

In addition to Darryn Peterson, there is another freshman not on this list of high achievers through November. That is Braylin Mullins at UConn. He was ranked No. 14 coming out of HS and just last game got back into the lineup after an injury. He is back now so UConn, like Kansas, probably will improve their ranking going forward.  It is not like they were lacking talent without him. Good grief, Like Duke they are loaded with talent and size. Look at their roster below. They are reminiscent of Tennessee with their size. They have some big dudes. And they have talent, at least as far as RSCI HS rankings. And of course, they have Alex Karaban, an AA candidate. This is truly a clash of the titans. 

Before I forget, I wanted to update you on the conference rankings. The SEC is having another really good year and giving the Big 12 a run for their money. But the Big 12 continues to reign at the top of the standings. That is based on the DPPI of course, which has been scientifically proven to be accurate to 5 decimal points. Yu can see that the ACC has rebounded this season from a multiple season funk to move into third among the 5 power conferences. The Big Ten and the Big East are pretty far back. Even the ACC is a distant 3rd. Don't let things like average scoring margin fool you. The Big 12, even with a lower average scoring margin is at the top because they have by far the best SOS. KU can help that cause with a win tomorrow. Preferably a decisive win. 

While I am on things DPPI, let's look at the overall DPPI. If you compare the DPPI to the AP top 25 you will find a number of differences. You will see that 21 of the top 25 are also in the DPPI top 25, although in a little different order. Louisville, USC and even UNC, while not in the top 25 of the DPPI are lurking up there in the low 30's. But the real head scratcher is Arkansas. Maybe that is based on roster talent. Ot maybe it is the Calipari factor. But the DPPI has them 57th which means they would not even be in the NCAA Tourney much less a top 25 team. 

There is one big drawback of the Big 12 being so tough. That is KU's schedule is tough. And with a DPPI 12th place rating that equates into a projected record of 20-11. Not exactly what the doctor ordered for this season. Of course, there is the Darryn Peterson factor which could change all of that substantially. One piece of good news and this is something I have spoken of often but is a pretty nerdy metric. That is the number of wins KU currently has (6) compared to the projected wins (5.45). KU has won more than projected which is a sign of great coaching among other things. This has been a hallmark of KU under Self (and also before). But of course, the DPPI sees KU as the 12th ranked team so it says they are performing a little better than a 12th ranked team should. But that is little comfort. We want them to be performing like a top 3 or 4 team should. Below is the projected schedule. 

If you look up at the DPPI you will see that KU is ranked just ahead of UConn. But the head to head is always a little different than the rankings based on the algorithm I use for the overall rankings. So UConn would actually be favored on a neutral court. But KU is a 1.9 point favorite at home with a 56% probability of winning. Ramp that up if Peterson plays. But ramp it back down for the Mullins factor. So 2 points is probably a pretty good spread. The betting line has UConn by 1.5 points with a projected 71-70 win.

Below are the adjusted stats (for SOS) for KU and UConn. Based on adjusted stats UConn seems to be clearly the stronger team. They are 29th in offense and 6th in defense. KU is 65th in offense and 13th in defense. These are reasonably meaningful numbers. You can also see the DPPI rankings. UConn is 20th in offense and 8th in defense while KU is 19th in offense and 11th in defense. The Achilles Heel for UConn has been fouling. Their opponents have had a FT to FG ratio of 0.32 compared to KU at 0.20. I'm not sure how meaningful that stat is. You know I like to focus on rebounding. KU has been a better defensive rebounding team. UConn has been the better offensive rebounding team. One stat that does worry me is UConn has really been good about not turning the ball over and KU has been bad at forcing TO's. Let's hope DP can have an impact on that.

After all the dust settles, even though the betting line is 1.5 points in UConn's favor, my DPPI has KU at almost a 2 point favorite. Here is the tale of the tape. 

Enjoy the game.