predictions for Connecticut game

Kansas last played UConn in 2023, also in Lawrence.  Very unusual to get two
consecutive home games against a marquee non-conference opponent.  Of course,
the 2023 game was part of the Big East Battle, so it was the conferences that
decided the match-ups and venues, and I guess the Battle didn't last long enough
for the conferences to schedule the return game.  This season's game was apparently
set up by the two schools, so it's reasonable to expect that the Jayhawks will be
traveling to Connecticut in the next season or two.

Kansas has never lost to UConn in four previous meetings.  Is that a good omen,
or will the law of averages rear its ugly head?

The big question is whether Peterson will be cleared to play.  It has been
reported that the medical staff will do an evaluation Tuesday morning, so we
should know well before game time if he has been cleared to play.  Meanwhile,
Dawson should be available to play, which could potentially put the Jayhawks at
full strength, if Peterson gets cleared.  Yes, Peterson should add some scoring
punch, but one wonders whether he might also mess up the team chemistry that 
developed during the Players Era Festival.

Four of the usual prognosticators are picking Kansas to win, namely Massey (who
is reasonably respectable), Dolphin (also respectable, though less well-known),
Don Davis' DPPI (ditto), and Colley (I don't like his rankings this early in
the season, when win-loss records are skewed by games against cupcakes).  The
rest are calling for UConn to win, though with the exception of Dunkel, everybody
has the margin under 3 points, meaning a one-possession affair that could come
down to who has the ball last.  Dunkel, for some unknown reason, has UConn by a
whopping 11 points.  What does he know that nobody else knows?  Then again,
Dunkel has never fared very well in my comparison of prognosticators, so I tend
to downweight his predictions.  The average of the 13 predictions favors UConn
by 1.2 points, though with a scatter of 3.4 points.  Omit the Dunkel prediction
as an outlier, and we have a toss-up consensus.  The return of Peterson could
tilt things in favor of Kansas.

UConn has already played two other Big XII teams, namely Arizona and BYU, both
ranked, and split with them, falling at home to Arizona by 4, but beating BYU
by only 2.  Today's game will set up a couple common opponents for conference
action and better indicate how Kansas stacks up with a couple teams ahead of
Kansas in Pomeroy's rankings (Arizona is #9, BYU is #13).  UConn's other marquee
game was its most recent, against Pomeroy's #17 team, Illinois, when the Huskies
played almost 11 points above expectation.  Of course, Kansas, in its most recent
game, played almost 8 points above expectation against Pomeroy's #12 team,
Tennessee.  The teams appear to be well-matched, though Kansas built its record
without its star player for the most part.  Then again, UConn has had its share
of injury as well, with Tarris Reed Jr.'s ankle injury and Braylon Mullins' ankle
injury.

The one stat that kind of sticks out like a sore thumb is UConn's inconsistency,
a whopping 14.6 points, earned largely from their pasting of UMass Lowell, when
they played 32 points above expectation.  That's a rarity.

It might be worth noting that Whitlock is now on board for this season, and the
NCAA has released NET rankings for this season, with Kansas at #17.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats    UConn     KU      Defensive Stats    UConn     KU
Points/Game         82.4    76.3     Opp Points/Game     61.3    64.5
Avg Score Margin   +21.1   +11.8     Opp Effective FG %  42.3    42.7
Assists/Game        18.9    15.1     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.7     7.8
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.6    39.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.3    28.3
Effective FG %      56.5    53.7     Blocks/Game          5.4     6.5
Off Rebound %       33.0    26.2     Steals/Game          8.7     4.8
FTA/FGA            0.374   0.369     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.1    15.6
Turnover %          11.9    14.4   

My Stats Comparison        KU          Connecticut
===================   =============   ============
performance           +2.21           +3.91    
inconsistency          9.49           14.62    
trend                 -0.15 ± 1.58    -1.12 ± 2.98
mental toughness      -0.36 ± 0.26    -0.11 ± 0.44         
average total pts     140.75          143.71 

Common Opponents
================
None.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Alex Karaban (forward)
most points        Tarris Reed Jr. (center)
most rebounds      Tarris Reed Jr. (center)
most assists       Silas Demary Jr (guard)
most steals        Silas Demary Jr (guard)
most blocks        Tarris Reed Jr. (center)
most turnovers     Silas Demary Jr (guard)
most fouls         Jayden Ross (forward)

                                                           6-2            6-1 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Connecticut
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +2.00   72   70       55       # 15   #  6    # 12   # 31
Pomeroy                 -0.02   72   72       49.9     # 20   # 28    #  7   #149
Greenfield              -2.00   70   71.5              # 20   #  6    # 10   #  8
Dunkel                 -11.00   68   79                # 31           # 23
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -2.50   70   72                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +2.19   71   69       57.5     # 15   #  5    #  9   #  9
Seven Overtimes                                        #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
DPPI                    +1.90   72   70       56.2     # 12   #  8    # 13   # 62 
ESPN Bet/BPI            -1.50   70   71.5              # 20   # 19    # 10   # 89
Whitlock                -0.54                          # 22   #  9    #  9   # 15
Colley Matrix           +0.55                          # 38   # 44    # 18   # 15 
Donchess                -2.70   72   74       42.5     # 20   #  9    #  9   # 72
Haslametrics            -1.14   71   72                # 18           #  4
INCCStats               -1.00   70   71       46.9     # 19           #  4
common opponents                                     
NCAA NET                                               # 17           #  8
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 19           # 10
Pomeroy offense                                        # 50           # 13
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           #  8
Pomeroy tempo                                          #240           #313
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -1.21   70.7 72.0     51.3
scatter                  3.38    1.3  2.7      5.9

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 20-11:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #272 Green Bay                   94  51   +24.26   +18.74
AWAY   # 31 North Carolina              74  87    -1.10   -11.90
HOME   #243 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +24.19    +6.81
HOME   #240 Princeton                   76  57   +23.63    -4.63
NEUT   #  3 Duke                        66  78    -6.52    -5.48
NEUT   # 72 Notre Dame                  71  61    +7.15    +2.85
NEUT   # 71 Syracuse                    71  60    +7.23    +3.77
NEUT   # 12 Tennessee                   81  76    -2.54    +7.54
HOME   #  7 Connecticut                 72  72    -0.02             0.499
NEUT   # 29 Missouri                    79  76    +2.15             0.581
AWAY   # 30 N.C. State                  80  81    -1.22             0.454
HOME   #139 Towson                      76  60   +16.21             0.937
HOME   #124 Davidson                    80  64   +15.97             0.934
AWAY   # 59 UCF                         80  77    +2.75             0.602
HOME   # 49 TCU                         77  68    +8.29             0.783
AWAY   # 68 West Virginia               69  66    +3.08             0.614
HOME   #  4 Iowa St.                    74  76    -1.45             0.446
HOME   # 24 Baylor                      81  76    +5.03             0.683
AWAY   # 64 Colorado                    79  76    +3.16             0.617
AWAY   # 74 Kansas St.                  83  78    +4.53             0.666
HOME   # 13 BYU                         78  77    +0.90             0.534
AWAY   # 28 Texas Tech                  73  75    -1.60             0.440
HOME   #126 Utah                        84  68   +16.66             0.942
HOME   #  9 Arizona                     78  78    -0.31             0.488
AWAY   #  4 Iowa St.                    71  79    -8.45             0.212
AWAY   # 52 Oklahoma St.                82  81    +1.90             0.571
HOME   # 69 Cincinnati                  76  65   +10.89             0.848
HOME   #  6 Houston                     68  68    +0.03             0.501
AWAY   #  9 Arizona                     75  82    -7.31             0.245
AWAY   # 84 Arizona St.                 80  74    +5.35             0.694
HOME   # 74 Kansas St.                  86  75   +11.53             0.862

Here is Connecticut's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #349 New Haven                   79  55   +33.34    -9.34
HOME   #308 UMass Lowell               110  47   +30.88   +32.12
HOME   #135 Columbia                    89  62   +20.04    +6.96
NEUT   # 13 BYU                         86  84    +1.10    +0.90
HOME   #  9 Arizona                     67  71    +3.50    -7.50
HOME   #306 Bryant                      72  49   +29.70    -6.70
NEUT   # 17 Illinois                    74  61    +2.06   +10.94
AWAY   # 20 Kansas                      72  72    +0.02             0.501