predictions for Tennessee game

And the mystery guest has finally been revealed.  Its identity remained unknown
until Gonzaga waxed Maryland by 39, giving the Bulldogs a +49 margin in their
first two Players Era games, second only to Michigan's +70 margin, so it will be
Michigan against Gonzaga for the championship.  Tennessee was third at +28, and
Kansas fourth with +21.  Iowa State, the only other particpant with a 2-0 record,
was the odd man out with just a +19 combined margin, so the Cyclones drew
Syracase for their third game (and pasted the Orange by 31, thus creating a
common opponent for when the Jayhawks take on the Cyclones later on in conference
action).  So it will be Kansas versus Tennessee for the third place game.

Meanwhile, Tennessee had not played a single top-tier opponent until their most
recent Players Era game, when they took down a legitimate Houston team by 4 points.

Colley's RPI-like system shows some pretty wild rankings right now.  First of all,
it hasn't been updated with the results of this week, which is when a lot of
tournaments are being played, getting major conference teams out of the comfy
confines of their home courts and playing some decent competition.  As a result,
he has Oregon sitting up there at #2 sporting a lofty 4-0 record, but they lost
to Auburn by 11 and San Diego State by 17 in the Players Era Festival, clearly
being undeserving of a #2 ranking.  Heck Colley has Kansas State at #10 with an
unblemished 5-0 record, except that little brother lost to Nebraska by 1 and to
Indiana by 17 in their latest two games.  We'll see a major shake-up of Colley's
rankings once the results of this week have been incorporated.

So Colley has Tennesse, undefeated and a legitimate Big Dance team, way down at
#46, but that's still a lot better than Kansas at #124, so Colley is predicting
a 7 point loss for the Jayahwks.  Everybody else is also calling for the Jayhawks
to lose, but by fewer points.

Tennessee's first two games of the season were their least two consistent
performances.  Since then, the Vols have been remarkably consistent, playing
at most 8 points from expectation.  Fortunately, the predicted margin for
today's game is within that, so Kansas has a decent shot at what would be
considered an upset.  Against top-tier competition, Tennessee has only that
4 point win over Houston yesterday for a 1-0 record, while Kansas is now 2-2
against the top tier after their wins over Notre Dame and Syracuse.  I do get
the feeling that the team is starting to gel, and doing so without Peterson,
and we'll see just how much progress they've made against the Vols.  The
Bidunga and Tiller pair seems to be working pretty well, White has been solid,
and although Council hasn't been much of a scoring threat, he can be so
disruptive to defenses with his speed.  Letting McDowell start and having
Rosario come off the bench seemed to work out okay for the one time it has
been tried.

I do wonder about the future of the Players Era Festival.  It's clearly
different from tournaments like the Maui Invitational or the Battle 4 Atlantis.
In those Thanksgiving-time tournaments, only the first-round opponents are
scheduled in advance, and a champion is determined in the traditional way.
They only select one team from a conference to avoid matchups between
conferences members, though with participation determined so far in advance
and subsequent realignment, such matchups have occurred anyway.  Meanwhile,
Players Era is set to expand to 32 teams in 2026, with four pools of eight
teams playing three games over a span of two weeks.  The four winners of
those pools will advance to a final week of competition for the champpionship
and third-place games.  The Big XII has a partnership with the Players Era
and will send EIGHT teams (half the conference) to the 2026 event, with teams
chosen from the previous season's conference standings.  Wow.  Is this going
to preempt participation in the Maui or Atlantis events?  Will this wreak havoc
with non-conference schedules?  After all, I expect there will still be a limit
of 13 non-conference games, assuming an 18-game conference slate.  Could up to
five of those go to a single event?  Or is it really only four games, with
participation in the championship and third-place games decided by scoring
margin?  The new format hasn't been finalized yet.  But for those teams that
do NOT advance to the championship or third-place games, they will have a
hole to fill in their schedule, or will Players Era have all participants
play?  Will all these games be in Vegas, or will they have some campus games?
And what about the bottom half of the conference that does not get to
participate in Players Era?  They'll have to finalize their non-conference
schedules AFTER the end of this season.  Inquiring minds want to know!

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Tenn     KU      Defensive Stats     Tenn     KU
Points/Game         87.3    75.6     Opp Points/Game     63.1    62.9
Avg Score Margin   +24.1   +12.7     Opp Effective FG %  42.4    42.1
Assists/Game        20.7    15.6     Off Rebounds/Gm     13.9     7.9
Total Rebounds/Gm   44.7    40.1     Def Rebounds/Gm     28.4    28.7
Effective FG %      56.5    54.5     Blocks/Game          3.9     6.3
Off Rebound %       48.7    26.6     Steals/Game          7.6     5.0
FTA/FGA            0.374   0.346     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.9    15.6
Turnover %          15.8    14.9   

My Stats Comparison        KU          Tennessee
===================   =============   ============
performance           +2.06           +1.74    
inconsistency          9.66            7.62    
trend                 -1.07 ± 1.94    +1.22 ± 1.48
mental toughness      -0.46 ± 0.25    +0.17 ± 0.29         
average total pts     138.43          150.43 

Common Opponents
================
None.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Ja'Kobi Gillespie (guard)
most points        Ja'Kobi Gillespie (guard)
most rebounds      Nate Ament (forward)
most assists       Ja'Kobi Gillespie (guard)
most steals        Nate Ament (forward)
most blocks        Felix Okpara (forward)
most turnovers     Ja'Kobi Gillespie (guard)
most fouls         Ja'Kobi Gillespie (guard)

Reserve guard Bishop Boswell is out with a foot injury.  He is fourth on the
team in minutes played per game, but only seventh in points scored per game.
Curiously, Peterson is not listed among the injured for Kansas.


                                                           5-2            7-0 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Tennessee
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -4.00   67   71       35       # 22   # 15    #  5   # 68
Pomeroy                 -3.60   73   77       36.7     # 20   # 64    # 10   #294
Greenfield              -5.50   67   72.5              # 18   #  8    # 13   # 27
Dunkel                  -1.50   66   67                # 33           #  5
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -5.50   67   73                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -2.32   69   73       42.2     # 14   #  7    #  9   # 27
Seven Overtimes                                        #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
DPPI                                                   # 32   #168    #      #    
ESPN Bet/BPI            -5.50   66.5 72                # 20   # 28    # 10   #196
Whitlock                                               #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix           -6.84                          #124   #149    # 46   #341 
Donchess                -2.50   71   73       43.8     # 22   # 23    #  8   #173
Haslametrics            -3.57   72   75                # 16           #  5
INCCStats               -2.00   71   73       40.7     # 19           # 13
common opponents                                     
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 23           # 13
Pomeroy offense                                        # 60           # 15
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           # 10
Pomeroy tempo                                          #261           #224
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -3.89   69.0 72.7     39.7
scatter                  1.74    2.6  2.6      3.7

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 19-12:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #279 Green Bay                   94  51   +24.07   +18.93
AWAY   # 21 North Carolina              74  87    -2.99   -10.01
HOME   #242 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +23.43    +7.57
HOME   #245 Princeton                   76  57   +23.62    -4.62
NEUT   #  3 Duke                        66  78    -7.12    -4.88
NEUT   # 73 Notre Dame                  71  61    +6.84    +3.16
NEUT   # 72 Syracuse                    71  60    +6.71    +4.29
NEUT   # 10 Tennessee                   73  77    -3.60             0.367
HOME   # 14 Connecticut                 75  74    +0.45             0.517
NEUT   # 31 Missouri                    81  79    +1.56             0.559
AWAY   # 27 N.C. State                  78  81    -2.42             0.410
HOME   #129 Towson                      77  61   +15.78             0.932
HOME   #122 Davidson                    81  65   +15.76             0.932
AWAY   # 68 UCF                         82  79    +3.08             0.614
HOME   # 77 TCU                         79  68   +10.81             0.847
AWAY   # 75 West Virginia               71  68    +3.38             0.625
HOME   #  5 Iowa St.                    75  77    -2.35             0.412
HOME   # 29 Baylor                      81  76    +4.90             0.679
AWAY   # 87 Colorado                    82  77    +4.82             0.676
AWAY   # 51 Kansas St.                  83  81    +1.56             0.559
HOME   # 11 BYU                         80  80    +0.03             0.501
AWAY   # 23 Texas Tech                  74  77    -3.02             0.388
HOME   #134 Utah                        86  69   +17.38             0.950
HOME   #  8 Arizona                     78  79    -0.61             0.477
AWAY   #  5 Iowa St.                    71  81    -9.35             0.188
AWAY   # 55 Oklahoma St.                83  81    +2.12             0.580
HOME   # 48 Cincinnati                  77  70    +7.90             0.772
HOME   #  7 Houston                     69  70    -0.43             0.484
AWAY   #  8 Arizona                     75  83    -7.61             0.236
AWAY   # 83 Arizona St.                 81  76    +4.24             0.656
HOME   # 51 Kansas St.                  86  78    +8.56             0.791

Here is Tennessee's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #192 Mercer                      76  61   +25.44   -10.44
HOME   #209 Northern Kentucky           95  56   +25.68   +13.32
HOME   #334 North Florida               99  66   +34.56    -1.56
HOME   #243 Rice                        91  66   +27.09    -2.09
HOME   #220 Tennessee St.               89  60   +27.40    +1.60
NEUT   #138 Rutgers                     85  60   +17.17    +7.83
NEUT   #  7 Houston                     76  73    -0.53    +3.53
NEUT   # 20 Kansas                      77  73    +3.60             0.633