predictions for Syracuse game

Syracuse took Houston to overtime before falling by 4.  Is Syracuse
that good, or is Houston that bad?  Or maybe one of those statistical
fluctuations?  Hard to say how good Houston might be.  Four of their
six wins have come against mid-majors, but only the Rider game was a
blowout.  They did beat a ranked Auburn team, but by only 1 point,
and they squandered a double-digit lead against Syracuse in the last
four minutes of regulation.  Houston may not be the juggernaught of
recent years.

At least the absence of Peterson for the Jayhawks will be offset by
the likely absence of Donnie Freeman, the leading scorer for the
Orange.  But who knows how severe his foot injury might be and when
he might be allowed to play?

Yes, Syracuse has a better record than Kansas, 4-1 compared to 4-2,
so as you should expect, Colley has Syracuse ranked higher than
Kansas, which means the Orange ought to be favored on a neutral
court.  But Colley is the only one saying so.  Everybody else has
Kansas by anywhere from 3 to 11 points.  The grand average is 5.4
points.  Dolphin came closest to getting the margin right for the
Notre Dame game, and he has Kansas by just 6, making the Orange a
more formidable opponent.

What I'm struggling to understand is how Syracuse has Pomeroy's
133rd ranked tempo, while at the same time playing games with an
average of 138 total points.  Kansas has the #232 tempo and plays
games with more total points.  The difference between Syracuse and
Kansas is less than two possessions per game.  Teams are tightly
packed in that statistic.  So it could be a fairly low-scoring game.
I'm going with Kansas 73, Syracuse 66.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      Syr     KU      Defensive Stats      Syr     KU
Points/Game         80.0    76.3     Opp Points/Game     58.2    63.3
Avg Score Margin   +21.8   +13.0     Opp Effective FG %  37.0    42.9
Assists/Game        16.4    15.8     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.6     7.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   38.8    38.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     26.0    28.0
Effective FG %      56.2    55.3     Blocks/Game          6.4     6.7
Off Rebound %       27.6    24.7     Steals/Game          8.0     5.5
FTA/FGA            0.381   0.342     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.4    15.3
Turnover %          12.6    14.2   

My Stats Comparison        KU           Syracuse
===================   =============   ============
performance           +2.03           +5.64    
inconsistency         10.55           10.43    
trend                 -2.09 ± 2.62    -3.34 ± 3.28
mental toughness      -0.47 ± 0.28    -0.11 ± 0.38         
average total pts     139.67          138.20 

Common Opponents
================
None.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Nate Kingz (guard)
most points        Donnie Freeman (forward)
most rebounds      William Kyle III (forward)
most assists       Naithan George (guard)
most steals        Naithan George (guard)
most blocks        William Kyle III (forward)
most turnovers     Naithan George (guard)
most fouls         Donnie Freeman (forward)

Donnie Freeman is dealing with a foot injury, and it is unclear whether he will
play.

                                                           4-2            4-1 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Syracuse
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +7.00   76   69       74       # 23   # 15    # 66   #131
Pomeroy                 +4.23   79   75       65.5     # 22   #104    # 51   #349
Greenfield              +3.40   75   72                # 19   #  5    # 52   # 70
Dunkel                  +8.00   80   72                # 35           # 64
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.50   76   72       68.1                             
Dolphin Predictive      +6.06   72   66       69.9     # 16   #  6    # 52   # 95
Seven Overtimes                                        #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
DPPI                                                   # 13   # 22    #      #    
ESPN Bet/BPI            +3.50   75.5 72                # 22   # 48    # 55   #275
Whitlock                                               #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix           -3.36                          #124   #149    # 84   #366 
Donchess               +10.10   81   70.5     82.8     # 22   # 37    # 82   #364
Haslametrics           +11.29   79   68                # 17           # 96
INCCStats               +5.00   75   70       69.2     # 19           # 51
common opponents                                     
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 24           # 65
Pomeroy offense                                        # 61           # 64
Pomeroy defense                                        # 11           # 49
Pomeroy tempo                                          #232           #133
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +5.43   76.9 70.7     71.6
scatter                  3.91    2.8  2.5      6.2

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 18-13:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #279 Green Bay                   94  51   +23.78   +19.22
AWAY   # 25 North Carolina              74  87    -3.13    -9.87
HOME   #249 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +23.10    +7.90
HOME   #251 Princeton                   76  57   +23.51    -4.51
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  78    -7.77    -4.23
NEUT   # 74 Notre Dame                  71  61    +6.32    +3.68
NEUT   # 51 Syracuse                    79  75    +4.23             0.655
NEUT   #  4 Houston                     67  72    -5.43             0.304
HOME   # 11 Connecticut                 75  75    -0.14             0.495
NEUT   # 33 Missouri                    81  80    +1.22             0.546
AWAY   # 32 N.C. State                  79  81    -2.34             0.412
HOME   #128 Towson                      76  61   +15.20             0.925
HOME   #125 Davidson                    81  66   +15.56             0.929
AWAY   # 68 UCF                         81  79    +2.28             0.585
HOME   # 83 TCU                         79  69   +10.47             0.839
AWAY   # 75 West Virginia               72  69    +2.74             0.602
HOME   # 13 Iowa St.                    77  77    -0.20             0.493
HOME   # 20 Baylor                      80  77    +3.07             0.614
AWAY   # 88 Colorado                    82  78    +4.41             0.662
AWAY   # 49 Kansas St.                  83  82    +0.60             0.523
HOME   #  9 BYU                         80  80    -0.59             0.478
AWAY   # 31 Texas Tech                  75  78    -2.80             0.396
HOME   #121 Utah                        87  71   +15.88             0.933
HOME   #  7 Arizona                     79  80    -1.39             0.448
AWAY   # 13 Iowa St.                    73  80    -7.20             0.248
AWAY   # 58 Oklahoma St.                84  82    +1.67             0.563
HOME   # 45 Cincinnati                  78  71    +7.15             0.750
HOME   #  4 Houston                     69  71    -1.93             0.428
AWAY   #  7 Arizona                     75  84    -8.39             0.214
AWAY   # 80 Arizona St.                 79  76    +3.53             0.631
HOME   # 49 Kansas St.                  86  79    +7.60             0.764

Here is Syracuse's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #354 Binghamton                  85  47   +26.95   +11.05
HOME   #362 Delaware St.                83  43   +29.77   +10.23
NEUT   #274 Drexel                      80  50   +16.40   +13.60
HOME   #208 Monmouth                    78  73   +17.28   -12.28
NEUT   #  4 Houston                     74  78    -9.62    +5.62
NEUT   # 22 Kansas                      75  79    -4.23             0.345