predictions for Notre Dame game

Notre Dame has played five games, four against cupcakes, all victories,
and one against a top-tier opponent, a loss, but just a one-point loss.
Overall, the Irish have played 1.56 points above expectation, so their
ranking in the top tier is probably deserved.  Can't say for sure until
the teams are connected, and after Notre Dame has played stiffer
competition.

Against Duke, it was another Darryn N. Peterson game, the initials
standing for Did Not Play.  Nor will he apparently play at all in the
Players Era tournament.  Fortunately, the ranking for Kansas has been
earned essentially without the services of Peterson, so the projected
win today is justified, though it's not expected to be easy.

There are a couple of contrarians.  Colley has Notre Dame ranked
higher than Kansas, so on a neutral court, the higher ranked team is
the favorite.  That's because Colley apparently uses an RPI-like
ranking formula that looks just at wins and losses.  Notre Dame's
4-1 record is better than Kansas' 3-2 record.  Never mind that
Notre Dame's 4 wins all came against weak competition.  Then again,
Kansas' 3 wins also came against weak competition.  Maybe it is
better to look at the results from the tougher opposition.  Kansas
lost to both #1 on a neutral court and #28 on the road, while Notre
Dame lost to #34 on the road by a single point.  Maybe Colley's
prediction has some merit after all, but as a general rule, a team
that creates a lofty record by playing cupcakes shouldn't automatically
be ranked higher than a team that racks up losses by playing tough
competition.

But Colley has company.  Dunkel is also picking the Irish, but only
by a point.  Everybody else has Kansas winning by anywhere from 4.5
to 10.3 points.  A lot may depend on the foul situation.  The Kansas
starters, without Peterson, outplayed the Duke starters until foul
trouble forced Self to bench key players.  Then Duke took control,
and every time the Jayhawks gave the Blue Devils a little scare by
pulling close in the second half, Duke responded.  Did Kansas run
out of gas toward the end?  They scored only 2 points the last 4-5
minutes of the game, while Duke pulled away.  That is, the game was
a lot closer than the final score indicated.

It's too bad that Peterson isn't expected to play, because the
third game opponent will be decided in part on the final margins
in the first two games.  Then again, win by a lot, and the Jayhawks
would be facing the toughest opponent in the championship game, and
would probably be an underdog, given how stacked the field is.  So
if you're looking for a win in that third game, maybe two close wins
on Monday and Tuesday would bring on a weaker opponent.  But then
Kansas would likely not be playing for the championship and all the
NIL money that comes with it.  Once Peterson is back, bring on all
comers.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      ND      KU      Defensive Stats      ND      KU
Points/Game         83.6    77.4     Opp Points/Game     67.6    63.8
Avg Score Margin   +16.0   +13.6     Opp Effective FG %  48.3    44.1
Assists/Game        13.0    15.8     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.2     7.4
Total Rebounds/Gm   39.2    37.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.4    28.0
Effective FG %      59.0    56.1     Blocks/Game          1.2     6.4
Off Rebound %       35.4    25.0     Steals/Game          5.6     6.2
FTA/FGA            0.419   0.369     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.6    16.2
Turnover %          15.6    14.6   

My Stats Comparison        KU          Notre Dame
===================   =============   ============
performance           +2.19           +1.56    
inconsistency         11.07            9.02    
trend                 -3.70 ± 3.43    -3.57 ± 2.57
mental toughness      -0.52 ± 0.26    +0.23 ± 0.39         
average total pts     141.20          151.20 

Common Opponents
================
None.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Marcus Burton (guard)
most points        Marcus Burton (guard)
most rebounds      Carson Towt (forward)
most assists       Jalen Haralson (forward)
most steals        Marcus Burton (guard)
most blocks        Jalen Haralson (forward)
most turnovers     Jalen Haralson (forward)
most fouls         Marcus Burton (guard)

Center Tommy Ahneman is out following knee surgery.  He has no stats for the season.

                                                           3-2            4-1 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Notre Dame
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +8.00   75   67       78       # 29   # 14    # 80   #235
Pomeroy                 +5.72   78   72       70.6     # 29   #136    # 73   #349
Greenfield              +4.60   73   68                # 20   #  5    # 69   # 98
Dunkel                  -1.00   68   69                # 39           # 77
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.50   73   69       69.2                             
Dolphin Predictive     +10.25   78   67       80.4     # 16   #  3    # 93   #246
Seven Overtimes                                        #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
DPPI                    +7.00   76   69       73.0     # 10   # 22    #104   #325 
ESPN Bet/BPI            +4.50   73   68.5              # 23   # 83    # 66   #323
Whitlock                                               #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix           -2.94                          #124   #149    # 92   #293 
Donchess                +9.60   77   67       81.8     # 22   # 44    # 83   #308
Haslametrics            +9.16   79   69                # 16           # 76
INCCStats               +7.00   75   68       73.5     # 20           # 69
common opponents                                     
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 25           # 74
Pomeroy offense                                        # 58           # 73
Pomeroy defense                                        # 14           # 78
Pomeroy tempo                                          #226           #307
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +5.53   75.0 68.5     75.2
scatter                  4.04    3.2  1.4      4.9

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 18-13:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #297 Green Bay                   94  51   +24.68   +18.32
AWAY   # 28 North Carolina              74  87    -3.50    -9.50
HOME   #247 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +22.73    +8.27
HOME   #220 Princeton                   76  57   +21.35    -2.35
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  78    -8.22    -3.78
NEUT   # 73 Notre Dame                  78  72    +5.72             0.706
NEUT   # 61 Syracuse                    80  76    +4.60             0.668
NEUT   #  4 Houston                     67  74    -6.31             0.276
HOME   # 11 Connecticut                 75  76    -0.57             0.479
NEUT   # 33 Missouri                    82  81    +0.72             0.527
AWAY   # 19 N.C. State                  77  82    -4.57             0.333
HOME   #137 Towson                      79  62   +16.13             0.936
HOME   #123 Davidson                    82  67   +15.13             0.924
AWAY   # 69 UCF                         82  80    +1.95             0.573
HOME   # 79 TCU                         80  70   +10.23             0.833
AWAY   # 74 West Virginia               72  70    +2.36             0.588
HOME   # 10 Iowa St.                    76  77    -0.96             0.464
HOME   # 20 Baylor                      80  77    +3.00             0.612
AWAY   # 86 Colorado                    83  79    +4.15             0.653
AWAY   # 49 Kansas St.                  83  83    +0.16             0.506
HOME   #  8 BYU                         80  81    -1.03             0.461
AWAY   # 31 Texas Tech                  76  79    -3.29             0.378
HOME   #121 Utah                        88  72   +15.50             0.928
HOME   #  6 Arizona                     79  80    -1.81             0.432
AWAY   # 10 Iowa St.                    73  81    -7.96             0.226
AWAY   # 58 Oklahoma St.                85  83    +1.30             0.549
HOME   # 45 Cincinnati                  77  71    +6.69             0.736
HOME   #  4 Houston                     69  72    -2.81             0.395
AWAY   #  6 Arizona                     75  84    -8.81             0.202
AWAY   # 85 Arizona St.                 79  75    +3.71             0.637
HOME   # 49 Kansas St.                  86  79    +7.16             0.751

Here is Notre Dame's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #278 LIU                         89  67   +18.61    +3.39
HOME   #330 Detroit Mercy              102  70   +21.99   +10.01
HOME   #314 Eastern Illinois            78  58   +19.79    +0.21
AWAY   # 34 Ohio St.                    63  64    -8.32    +7.32
HOME   #310 Bellarmine                  86  79   +20.13   -13.13
NEUT   # 29 Kansas                      72  78    -5.72             0.294